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USGS2024

Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions

While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible, earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes occurring within some region over time. To enable informed decision-making of civil protection, governmental agencies, or the public, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) systems aim to provide authoritative earthquake forecasts based on current earthquake activity in near-real time. Establishing OEF systems involves several nontrivial choices. This review captures the current state of OEF worldwide and analyzes expert recommendations on the development, testing, and communication of earthquake forecasts. An introductory summary of OEF-related research is followed by a description of OEF systems in Italy, New Zealand, and the United States. Combined, these two parts provide an informative and transparent snapshot of today's OEF landscape. In Section 4, we analyze the results of an expert elicitation that was conducted to seek guidance for the establishment of OEF systems. The elicitation identifies consensus and dissent on OEF issues among a non-representative group of 20 international earthquake forecasting experts. While the experts agree that communication products should be developed in collaboration with the forecast user groups, they disagree on whether forecasting models and testing methods should be user-dependent. No recommendations of strict model requirements could be elicited, but benchmark comparisons, prospective testing, reproducibility, and transparency are encouraged. Section 5 gives an outlook on the future of OEF. Besides covering recent research on earthquake forecasting model development and testing, upcoming OEF initiatives are described in the context of the expert elicitation findings.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

USGS2024

Revision of ModelMuse to support the use of PEST software with MODFLOW and SUTRA models

Executive Summary ModelMuse is a graphical user interface for several groundwater modeling programs. ModelMuse was updated to generate the input files for the parameter estimation software suite PEST. The software is used with MODFLOW or SUTRA models to run PEST-based parameter estimation and display the updated model inputs after parameter estimation. The PEST input files can also be used with the PEST++ version 5 software suite. Parameter estimation typically requires defining the parameters being adjusted during calibration and observations for assessing calibration quality. After a parameter is defined in ModelMuse, it can be applied to all or part of a model dataset. Pilot points—a parameterization device that facilitates higher levels of parameterization—can be used to assign spatially variable distributions of model inputs. Parameters can be applied to temporally varying features, such as boundary conditions, by either applying them to all the values in a series in one step or by applying separate parameters to individual members of a series. ModelMuse allows the definition of many observation types from various model output files. For MODFLOW 6 and SUTRA models, new options were added to ModelMuse to allow it to display the changed input after parameter estimation is complete. For MODFLOW–2005 and MODFLOW–NWT models, ModelMuse can import an entire model for visualization. An example illustrates the use of PEST with a MODFLOW 6 model in ModelMuse.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2024

An orbital comparison of a late mantling unit on Aeolis Mons with other erosion-resistant strata explored by MSL in Gale crater, Mars

Previous investigations along Curiosity 's traverse in Gale crater have explored the relationship between orbital and in situ observations. This work aims to better understand the geologic environment of units only observable from orbit and compare them to the properties of units examined by Curiosity . Here, we map an erosion-resistant dark-toned mantling unit that overlies the modern topography of Aeolis Mons (informally known as Mt. Sharp) and compare this unit to two other previously mapped dark-toned resistant units, the marker band and the mound skirting unit (MSU), that have been inferred to represent different geologic environments (lacustrine and aeolian, respectively). Visible to short wave infrared spectra from the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars and visual images from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment and Context Cameras aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter are used for this comparison. Spectral data suggest a mafic composition with minor alteration, although the composition varies more with location around Mt. Sharp rather than between units. Morphologically, the mantling unit has strong similarities to the marker band based on their consistent low-albedo, erosion-resistance, and smooth appearance, contrasting with the highly variable surface texture of the MSU. We hypothesize that all three units had a similar sediment source but experienced aqueous alteration at different times: early ubiquitous cementation in a surface aqueous environment in the mantling unit and marker band versus patchy late diagenesis in the MSU. If true, these results suggest that water activity continued within the Gale crater long after the erosion of Mt. Sharp.

JGR Planets↗

USGS2024

Shallow faulting and folding beneath south‐central Seattle, Washington State, from land‐based high‐resolution seismic‐reflection imaging

The geologic framework of the Seattle fault zone (SFZ) has been extensively studied, but the structure and fault strand locations in the central portion of the fault zone through the city of Seattle have remained controversial. Much of what is known about the SFZ has come from light detection and ranging (lidar)‐topographic surveys and paleoseismic investigations of fault scarps primarily west of Puget Sound, regional gravity and aeromagnetic modeling, and multiscale marine seismic imaging in waters both west and east of Seattle. We analyze ∼24 km of land‐based P ‐wave seismic‐reflection data that fill in a critical gap in our understanding of the SFZ beneath the urban areas of West Seattle, south‐central Seattle, and Mercer Island. These data image deformed strata in the upper 1 km, including upwarped Tertiary rock and younger sediments. Collectively, these data provide evidence for multiple Quaternary‐active thrust faults, back thrusts, and sub‐basins within the SFZ beneath the city of Seattle. The results indicate that multiple and potentially active back thrusts in the upper ∼500 m extend across the length of the SFZ and the entire urban corridor that may be analogous to those on Bainbridge Island west of Puget Sound.

Washington↗

USGS2024

The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model

US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used extensively for seismic design regulations in the United States and earthquake scenario development, as well as risk assessment and mitigation for both buildings and infrastructure. This 2023 update of the long-term, time-independent Alaska NSHM includes substantial changes to both the earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) and ground motion models (GMMs). The ERF includes numerous additions to the finite-fault model, considers two deformation models, and introduces updated declustering and smoothing algorithms in the gridded background seismicity model. For the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone, megathrust earthquakes occur on an updated structural and segmentation model, and the moment magnitude (M) 8+ rupture and rate model include a logic tree branch that considers slip rates derived from geodetic models of interface coupling. The megathrust model considers multiple models of down-dip width, and magnitudes are computed using newly developed scaling relations. For subduction intraslab events and subduction interface events with M < 7, the 2023 update uses a smoothed seismicity model with rupture depths derived from Slab2. The 2023 model updates GMMs in all tectonic settings using the recently published Next Generation Attenuation Subduction (NGA-Sub) GMMs for subduction interface and intraslab events, and the NGA-West2 GMMs for active crustal settings. Collectively, additions and updates to the Alaska NSHM result in hazard increases across most of south-central Alaska relative to the previous model, published in 2007. These changes are primarily due to the adoption of updated rate models for the large-magnitude interface events and the NGA-Sub GMMs that have much higher aleatory variability (sigma), consistent with global observations, and that include models of epistemic uncertainty.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Assessing potential effects of oil and gas development activities on groundwater quality near and overlying the Elk Hills and North Coles Levee Oil Fields, San Joaquin Valley, California

Groundwater resources are utilized near areas of intensive oil and gas development in California’s San Joaquin Valley. In this study, we examined chemical and isotopic data to assess if thermogenic gas or saline water from oil producing formations have mixed with groundwater near the Elk Hills and North Coles Levee Oil Fields in the southwestern San Joaquin Valley. Major ion concentrations and stable isotope compositions were largely consistent with natural processes, including mixing of different recharge sources and water-rock interactions. Trace methane concentrations likely resulted from microbial rather than thermogenic sources. Trace concentrations of benzene and other dissolved hydrocarbons in three wells had uncertain sources that could occur naturally or be derived from oil and gas development activities or other anthropogenic sources. In the mid-1990s, two industrial supply wells had increasing Cl and B concentrations likely explained by mixing with up to 15 percent saline oil-field water injected for disposal in nearby injection disposal wells. Shallow groundwater along the western margin of Buena Vista Lake Bed had elevated Cl, B, and SO 4 concentrations that could be explained by accumulation of salts during natural wetting and drying cycles or, alternatively, legacy surface disposal of saline oil-field water in upgradient ephemeral drainages. This study showed that groundwater had relatively little evidence of thermogenic gas or saline water from oil and gas sources in most parts of the study area. However, the evidence for groundwater mixing with injected disposal water, and possibly legacy surface disposal water, demonstrates produced water management practices as a potential risk factor for groundwater-quality degradation near oil and gas fields. Additional studies in the San Joaquin Valley and elsewhere could improve understanding of such risks by assessing the locations, volumes, and types of produced water disposal practices used during the life of oil fields.

California↗

USGS2024

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida↗

USGS2024

A robust quantitative method to distinguish runoff-generated debris flows from floods

Debris flows and floods generated by rainfall runoff occur in rocky mountainous landscapes and burned steeplands. Flow type is commonly identified post-event through interpretation of depositional structures, but these may be poorly preserved or misinterpreted. Prior research indicates that discharge magnitude is commonly amplified in debris flows relative to floods due to volumetric bulking and increased frictional resistance. Here, we use this flow amplification to develop a metric ( Q* ) to separate debris flows from floods based on the ratio of observed peak discharge to the theoretical maximum water discharge from rainfall runoff. We compile 642 observations of floods and debris flows and demonstrate that Q* distinguishes flow type to ∼92% accuracy. Q* allows for accurate identification of debris flows through simple channel cross-section surveys rather than through qualitative interpretation of deposits, and therefore should increase the performance of models and engineered structures that require accurate flow-type observations.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2024

Peri-Gondwanan sediment in the Arkoma Basin derived from the north: The detrital zircon record of a uniquely concentrated non-Laurentian source signal in the late Paleozoic

During the assembly of Pangea, peri-Gondwanan terranes collided with the eastern and southern margins of Laurentia and brought with them unique detrital zircon U-Pb signatures. Discriminating between individual peri-Gondwanan terranes in the detrital record is difficult due to their similar geologic histories. However, characterization of this provenance is critical for understanding late Paleozoic sediment routing during development of Pangea. Along southeastern Laurentia, in the Arkoma Basin (present-day Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma, southeastern United States), we identified Middle Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) strata that exhibit a concentrated peri-Gondwanan detrital zircon signature (e.g., ca. 800–550 Ma). Although several southern peri-Gondwanan terranes (e.g., Maya, Suwannee) are closer to the Arkoma Basin, geologic data, such as predominantly north-to-south paleocurrents and proximal-to-distal facies relationships in these Desmoinesian strata, support a northern source (e.g., Ganderia, Avalonia, Meguma). Further evidence of a northern source comes from detrital zircon source mapping, which reveals the persistence of this peri-Gondwanan signal in depocenters to the north of the basin after the signal had diminished in the Arkoma Basin. To this end, bottom-up detrital zircon source modeling, source mapping, regional stratigraphy, paleocurrent data, and sandstone petrography allow us to reconstruct the evolution of this Middle Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) sediment pathway in the context of intraplate and plate-margin tectonic activity. This reconstruction documents processes affecting Earth’s surface (e.g., tectonics, climate) during the assembly of Pangea and describes in detail part of a dynamic continental-scale drainage system.

Geosphere↗

USGS2024

Bioconcentration of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances and precursors in fathead minnow tissues environmentally exposed to aqueous film-forming foam-contaminated waters

Exposure to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) has been associated with toxicity in wildlife and negative health effects in humans. Decades of fire training activity at Joint Base Cape Cod (MA, USA) incorporated the use of aqueous film-forming foam (AFFF), which resulted in long-term PFAS contamination of sediments, groundwater, and hydrologically connected surface waters. To explore the bioconcentration potential of PFAS in complex environmental mixtures, a mobile laboratory was established to evaluate the bioconcentration of PFAS from AFFF-impacted groundwater by flow-through design. Fathead minnows ( n = 24) were exposed to PFAS in groundwater over a 21-day period and tissue-specific PFAS burdens in liver, kidney, and gonad were derived at three different time points. The ∑PFAS concentrations in groundwater increased from approximately 10,000 ng/L at day 1 to 36,000 ng/L at day 21. The relative abundance of PFAS in liver, kidney, and gonad shifted temporally from majority perfluoroalkyl sulfonamides (FASAs) to perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (PFSAs). By day 21, mean ∑PFAS concentrations in tissues displayed a predominance in the order of liver > kidney > gonad. Generally, bioconcentration factors (BCFs) for FASAs, perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs), and fluorotelomer sulfonates (FTS) increased with degree of fluorinated carbon chain length, but this was not evident for PFSAs. Perfluorooctane sulfonamide (FOSA) displayed the highest mean BCF (8700 L/kg) in day 21 kidney. Suspect screening results revealed the presence of several perfluoroalkyl sulfinate and FASA compounds present in groundwater and in liver for which pseudo-bioconcentration factors are also reported. The bioconcentration observed for precursor compounds and PFSA derivatives detected suggests alternative pathways for terminal PFAS exposure in aquatic wildlife and humans.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2024

(Re)discovering the seismicity of Antarctica: A new seismic catalog for the southernmost continent

We apply a machine learning (ML) earthquake detection technique on over 21 yr of seismic data from on‐continent temporary and long‐term networks to obtain the most complete catalog of seismicity in Antarctica to date. The new catalog contains 60,006 seismic events within the Antarctic continent for 1 January 2000–1 January 2021, with estimated moment magnitudes (⁠Mw ⁠) between −1.0 and 4.5. Most detected seismicity occurs near Ross Island, large ice shelves, ice streams, ice‐covered volcanoes, or in distinct and isolated areas within the continental interior. The event locations and waveform characteristics indicate volcanic, tectonic, and cryospheric sources. The catalog shows that Antarctica is more seismically active than prior catalogs would indicate, examples include new tectonic events in East Antarctica, seismic events near and around the vicinity of David Glacier, and many thousands of events in the Mount Erebus region. This catalog provides a resource for more specific studies using other detection and analysis methods such as template matching or transfer learning to further discriminate source types and investigate diverse seismogenic processes across the continent.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2024

How does the onset of offset influence geologic slip rates?

Geologic slip rates are typically based on the displacement accrued by a geomorphic or stratigraphic feature and the age of the offset feature. Because slip rates are commonly calculated by dividing the displacement of a faulted marker by its age, they contain two open time intervals: the elapsed time between the age of an offset feature and the age of the earthquake that displaced the feature, and the time between the present‐day and the most recent earthquake. Here, we explore the influence of including unconstrained open intervals in geologic slip rate calculations. We test the degree to which these open intervals affect geologic slip rates and their uncertainties, and we find that their influence depends primarily on mean earthquake recurrence intervals (RIs). Slip rates on faults with longer RIs, such as the Wasatch fault, can be greatly influenced by an increase of up to 20% when accounting for open intervals. In contrast, slip rates on faults with shorter RIs, such as the San Andreas fault, are only slightly influenced by the assumption that slip rates calculated over open intervals approximate those calculated over closed intervals. Our analyses indicate that faults with moderate slip rates (∼0.2–5 mm/yr) are sensitive to both open interval effects themselves, as well as methods to quantify and account for these effects. We re‐evaluate how slip rates are calculated and defined in displacement–time space using published deformation records. We explore the utility of assigning a probability distribution to the initiation of offset of the oldest faulted feature and the timing of the most recent earthquake (MRE). We find that calculating geologic slip rates without using probability distributions that capture the timing of the MRE and the onset of offset of the oldest faulted feature, especially on slow‐to‐moderate slip rate faults, can lead to systematic underestimation of average geologic slip rates.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2024

Identifying transportation data and system needs for a Federal lands transportation data platform

Executive Summary Modern transportation and land-use planning efforts include information from many sources to address topics such as safety, efficiency, commercial, and social needs. This wide breadth of topics provides opportunities for collaboration and development of common tools for diverse users. In many cases, different information systems provide the spatial data and geographic content necessary for transportation and land-use planners to consider multiple lines of evidence. The Federal Highway Administration Office of Federal Lands Highway (FLH) and Federal Land Management Agency partners use detailed spatial and quantitative data to inform transportation decisions. However, logistic challenges to data sharing exist because data are often managed by separate agencies; data-exchange frameworks and interagency data agreements are insufficient; and consistency from aggregated data requires maintenance, coordination, and supporting infrastructure. The FLH and U.S. Geological Survey collaboratively examined (1) use and availability of spatial data for transportation planning and (2) a possible mechanism to use more shared and consistent data in a common planning environment. The goals of this collaborative effort were to describe data needs from the perspective of planners and to identify opportunities for shared data resources. Results presented here focus on two workshops and a subsequent investigation of data and tools available from partner agencies. The objectives of this report are to (1) describe information used in transportation planning with geographic data; (2) identify spatially explicit data that inform transportation plans and could be shared among all partners; and (3) describe current platforms, planning and administrative opportunities, and potential barriers to developing an integrated planning tool. Key information and data needs were identified in three major classes: system, user, and influential factors. System data are parts of the transportation network and information about the condition of individual segments and the network. User data provide details about the function of the system and insights into potential needs; for example, user trips between source and destinations inform road and network demands that can lead to congestion and safety issues (in the future, user data might also include scenarios and projections based on land-use plans). Influential data represent social and environmental factors that influence transit demands and network conditions. These factors could be popular locations or seasonal events that influence demand and congestion; wildlife habitat or migration intersections that affect safety and management priorities; or geologic features that influence hazards, maintenance, and safety. Responses described here provide specific information for web-tool design and give a framework for interagency communication and cooperation to address specific information needs for integrated planning. Existing web-mapping and web-services, and the data that inform them, are also described. Commonly, these data are created and published by one agency, and the core users are outside of that agency; for example, threatened species distributions are published by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for consideration by planners in advance of National Environmental Policy Act (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.) evaluation. This report is provided to inform FLH leaders and Federal Land Management Agency partners by articulating user needs and requirements for integrated planning tool(s). Programmers creating a secure web-based data-sharing platform (with data-viewing, -analysis and -download functions) can use the information presented here to organize data and user interfaces. This integrated perspective can help FLH and Federal Land Management Agency partners develop transportation networks that better serve the needs of people in local communities and across States and the Nation.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply

Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and adversely affecting the global economy. This study explores the quantification of earthquake risk to copper and rhenium commodity supply by examining the spatial concentration of high earthquake hazard areas and the commodity-specific mining, smelting, and refining operations across the globe. Because many of the largest facilities are concentrated geographically near the highly seismic regions of South America, East Asia, and the Pacific, there is a potential for cascading effects on the entire supply chain. The analysis indicates that the expected annual disruption of global production is 0.3–1.1 percent for copper mines, 1.8–4.0 percent for smelters, and 1.5–3.3 percent for refineries. Expected annual disruption of global rhenium production capacity is 0.32–1.32 percent. The research highlights that the potential lost revenue from earthquake disruptions is from $315 million to $1.29 billion for copper mining, $1.92 billion to $4.33 billion for copper smelting, $2.06 billion to $4.52 billion for copper refining, and $337,000 to $1.40 million for rhenium production capacity.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Assessment of long-term changes in surface-water extent within Klamath Marsh, south-central Oregon, 1985–2021

The annual maximum extent of surface water in Klamath Marsh has naturally fluctuated in response to periods of wet and dry conditions in the surrounding basin. Field observations during the 2010s indicate that the annual maximum extent of surface water has been declining and the marsh is not responding to hydrologic inputs as it had historically. This report describes the results of a hydrologic evaluation of Klamath Marsh to characterize and understand multi-year declines in the surface-water extent and increased intermittency of streamflow exiting the marsh. Landsat imagery collected during 1985–2021 was processed to create a time series of annual maximum surface-water extent to assess changes in surface-water inundation within the marsh. A 50-percent decrease in the mean surface area of annual total open-water extent (TOWE) during the latter half of the study period (2003–21) compared to the first half (1985–2003) was observed in this 37-year time-series dataset. The change in open-water extent was offset by a corresponding increase in dry land in the marsh. Time series of streamflow, groundwater level, total annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and anthropogenic water use and water management were compiled and evaluated to improve understanding of the factors affecting TOWE. Statistically significant downward trends in the regional groundwater table and streamflow into and out of the marsh were identified as well as statistically significant upward trends in annual mean temperature. Statistically significant correlations among TOWE, streamflow, and groundwater level also were identified. The decreasing trends could not be attributed to changes in total annual precipitation or changing anthropogenic groundwater use within the study area. Declines in the open-water extent of Klamath Marsh since 2000 principally are due to a decoupling of the groundwater and surface-water system beneath the marsh because of regional declines in groundwater level. Regional increases in air temperature and the reestablishment of more than 55,000 acres of forested land within the study area have likely contributed to increasing evapotranspiration, leaving less water available for groundwater recharge and stream base flow and resulting in basin-wide declines in streamflow and groundwater levels.

Oregon↗

USGS2024

3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation studies of gas hydrate reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. This study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-step gridding were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a 3-D trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Near-real-time earthquake-induced fatality estimation using crowdsourced data and few-shot large-language models

When a damaging earthquake occurs, immediate information about casualties (e.g., fatalities and injuries) is critical for time-sensitive decision-making by emergency response and aid agencies in the first hours and days. Systems such as the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) were developed to provide a forecast of such impacts within about 30 min of any significant earthquake globally. However, existing disaster-induced human loss estimation systems often rely on early casualty reports manually retrieved from global traditional media, which are labor-intensive, time-consuming, and have significant time latencies. Recent approaches use keyword matching and topic modeling to identify human casualty-relevant information from social media but tend to be error-prone when dealing with complex semantics in multi-lingual text data and parsing dynamically changing and conflicting human death and injury numbers shared by various unvetted sources in social media platforms. In this work, we introduce an end-to-end framework to significantly improve the timeliness and accuracy of global earthquake-induced human loss forecasting using multi-lingual, crowdsourced social media. Our framework integrates (i) a hierarchical casualty extraction model built upon large language models, prompt design, and few-shot learning to retrieve quantitative human loss claims from social media, (ii) a physical constraint-aware, dynamic-truth discovery model that discovers the truthful human loss from massive noisy and potentially conflicting human loss claims, and (iii) a Bayesian updating loss projection model that dynamically updates the final loss estimation using discovered truths. We test the framework in real-time on a series of global earthquake events in 2021 and 2022 and show that our framework effectively automates the retrieval of casualty information faster but with comparable accuracy to those now retrieved manually by the USGS. The code associated with this work is made available at: https://github.com/SusuXu-s-Lab/Hierarchical-Earthquake-Casualty-Information-Retrieval

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

USGS2024

Shallow storage of the explosive Earthquake Flat Pyroclastics magma body, Okataina Volcanic Center, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand: Evidence from phase-equilibria experiments

Rhyolitic tuffs range widely in their crystal contents from nearly aphyric to crystal-rich, and their crystal cargoes inform concepts of upper crustal magma reservoirs. The Earthquake Flat pyroclastics (Okataina Volcanic Center, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand) are 10 km 3 of rhyolitic tuffs with abundant (~ 40 vol.%) plagioclase and quartz, minor biotite, hornblende, and orthopyroxene, and accessory Fe-Ti oxides, apatite, and zircon, set in high-silica rhyolitic glass. Major minerals form large, euhedral phenocrysts and abundant glomerocrysts with few disequilibrium textures excepting some faintly resorbed quartz. Plagioclase phenocrysts have thick rims of nearly constant composition near An 30 , and hornblende is weakly zoned or unzoned. The abundant and texturally complex mineral assemblage contrasts with the nearby (~ 25 km), nearly synchronous, but more voluminous and crystal-moderate rhyolite tuffs from Rotoiti caldera. New H 2 O-saturated phase-equilibria results on the erupted Earthquake Flat melt (glass) determine its co-saturation with the partial phenocryst assemblage of plagioclase, quartz, biotite, and Fe-Ti oxides at: 140 MPa, 755 ºC. These closely approximate the conditions of the pre-eruptive magma body assuming it was saturated with nearly pure H 2 O and at an f O 2 of ~ Ni–NiO. Absence of hornblende and orthopyroxene from the synthesized assemblages may result from those minerals being in a peritectic reaction relation with melt to produce biotite, so they would not grow from the liquid used as starting material. Experimental results on Rotoiti rhyolite (Nicholls et al. 1992) show that the two bodies resided at similar pressures, temperatures, and f O 2 s. Lower crystal abundance of the Rotoiti tuffs may result from slight compositional differences. We interpret that the Earthquake Flat pyroclastics were sourced from the crystal-rich periphery of a mushy reservoir system with the Rotoiti occupying a more melt-rich central location. Uncertain is whether this was a single intrusion zoned continuously in crystallinity, or discrete adjacent intrusions, but our results illustrate and quantify complexities of magma storage across relatively short distances.

North Island, Taupo Volcanic Zone↗