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Zachary M. Shephard

Publications and source records attributed to Zachary M. Shephard.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

A review of post-wildfire adaptations of surface-water-quality models: Synthesis, gaps, and opportunities

As wildfires increasingly affect water-supply watersheds, the demand for models to predict water-quality responses is increasing. This work reviews and synthesizes existing post-wildfire applications of water-quality models in the context of geographic and ecohydrological distribution, hydrologic and water-quality response process representation, model parameterization, model and input data scales, model calibration data availability, as well as calibration and performance evaluation approaches. Emphasis is placed on models that simulate water-quality output, rather than sediment and erosional response as the primary focus. Here, identified gaps and opportunities to advance the post-wildfire application of water-quality models include: 1. applying models in under-represented geographic and ecohydrologic regions, 2. simulating multiple streamflow generation mechanisms, including groundwater, with an emphasis on shifting dominant flow pathways as the landscape recovers following wildfire, 3. adding studies that include the simulation of metals, 4. incorporating more biogeochemical and in-stream processes to model applications, 5. applying finer spatial and temporal resolution of precipitation data input as well as finer spatial resolution hydrologic response units, 6. implementing fully distributed grid or element models or finer resolution response units to capture burn severity heterogeneity, 7. collecting enhanced water-quality data for model calibration and validation, 8. conducting model-intercomparison studies, and 9. developing model parameter value guidance in post-wildfire applications. These identified gaps and opportunities may assist users in deciding on key processes and approaches to consider in modeling post-wildfire water-quality conditions.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Groundwater flow model investigation of the vulnerability of water resources at Chaco Culture National Historical Park related to unconventional oil and gas development

Chaco Culture National Historical Park (CCNHP), located in northwestern New Mexico, protects the greatest concentration of Chacoan historical sites in the American Southwest. Geologically, CCNHP is located within the San Juan structural basin, which consists in part of complex Cretaceous stratigraphy and hosts a variety of energy resources. As part of a larger study to investigate the vulnerability of water resources at CCNHP related to oil and natural gas extraction activities, a MODFLOW groundwater model of the Mancos Shale and Gallup Sandstone units was created by the U.S. Geological Survey, as a part of a cooperative study with the National Park Service, to assess advective groundwater flow paths and traveltimes. The model determined that groundwater flow directions currently trend from south-southeast to north-northwest within the vicinity of CCNHP, groundwater traveltime through the Gallup Sandstone ranges from thousands to tens of thousands of years, and traveltime through the Mancos Shale may range from millions to tens of millions of years. The capture zone of the main CCNHP well (referred to as the “Chaco well”) extends to the south-southeast and ranges in width from approximately 1 to 12 miles, depending on pumping rate. Eighteen inactive hydrocarbon related wells are located within the capture zone and within 10 kilometers of the Chaco well. Given model estimates of traveltimes of groundwater in the Gallup Sandstone aquifer, advective groundwater transport to the Chaco well would take approximately 430 years from the nearest inactive hydrocarbon related wells. Differencing of historical and modern-day potentiometric surfaces of the Gallup Sandstone indicate a drop in groundwater levels between 34 and 96 feet within the CCNHP boundaries. Hydraulic fracturing, simulated as increased hydraulic conductivity zones, decreased groundwater traveltimes (from millions to thousands of years) and acted as permeable pathways from the Mancos Shale to the Gallup Sandstone.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

Modeling post-wildfire hydrologic response: Review and future directions for applications of physically based distributed simulation

Wildfire is a growing concern as climate shifts. The hydrologic effects of wildfire, which include elevated hazards and changes in water quantity and quality, are increasingly assessed using numerical models. Post-wildfire application of physically based distributed models provides unique insight into the underlying processes that affect water resources after wildfire. This work reviews and synthesizes post-wildfire applications of physically based distributed models by examining the scales and geographic/ecohydrologic distribution of model applications, hydrologic response process representation, model parameterization, and model performance metrics. Highlighted gaps and opportunities for advancing physically based distributed hydrologic response modeling after wildfire include the following: (a) applying models in under-represented geographic (S. America, Africa, Asia) and ecohydrologic regions (arid or dry subhumid climates), (b) incorporating all four major streamflow generation mechanisms (infiltration excess, saturation excess, subsurface storm flow, and groundwater flow), (c) representing integrated vadose zone and saturated zone processes to better capture subsurface streamflow generation, (d) building new remotely sensed model parameterization methods for precipitation interception, infiltration, and overland flow that account for burn severity and recovery, (e) incorporating distributed state variables (e.g., soil moisture, groundwater levels) in model performance assessment, (f) designing model intercomparison studies, including field datasets specifically for post-wildfire model development and validation, (g) linking mechanistic vegetation regrowth models with hydrologic models to improve simulation of process shifts as ecosystems recover, and (h) creating a new community modeling framework to integrate modeling advances across the wildfire science community.

Earth's Future↗

Water quality at Chaco Culture National Historical Park and the potential effects of hydrocarbon extraction

Study region Chaco Culture National Historical Park (CCNHP) is in the San Juan Basin of northwestern New Mexico, U.S.A. Its only water supply is in Gallup Sandstone aquifer, stratigraphically surrounded by layers long targeted for oil and natural gas extraction. Study focus To assess groundwater flow direction, age, mixing between aquifers, and whether hydrocarbons extraction may affect water quality, we completed a geochemical groundwater sampling campaign. Groundwater at 11 sites was analyzed for major ions, hydrocarbon associated volatile organic carbon (VOC) compounds, noble gases, and the isotope systems δ 2 H, δ 18 O, 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, δ 13 C, and 14 C. New hydrological insights for the region Results demonstrate that all sampled groundwaters are exceedingly old and geochemically evolved, with a median 14 C age of ∼41,000 years before present and a north flowing path. Three lines of evidence suggest mixing between aquifers through relatively impermeable shale units and mixing with hydrocarbons: 1) noble gases are fractionated likely through mixing with connate water expelled during hydrocarbon genesis; 2) several wells—including the park’s main supply well—contained trace amounts of hydrocarbon related VOC compounds; and 3) major ion analysis shows mixing trends between aquifers. We hypothesize that cross-aquifer mixing may be facilitated through the region’s numerous hydrocarbon related boreholes. Whether our findings are the result of oil and gas extraction or represent the natural state of the aquifers will require more research.

New Mexico↗

Water-quality trends in surface waters of the Jemez River and Middle Rio Grande Basin from Cochiti to Albuquerque, New Mexico, 2004–19

Municipal water supply for Albuquerque, New Mexico, is provided, in part, through diversion of surface water from the Rio Grande by way of the San Juan-Chama Drinking Water Project diversion structure. Changes in surface-water quality along the Rio Grande and its tributaries upstream from the San Juan-Chama Drinking Water Project diversion structure are not well characterized. This study describes the methods and results of an analysis of surface-water-quality trends for selected constituents in the Rio Grande upstream from Albuquerque. Trends were evaluated for differing time periods ranging from 2004 to 2019 by using the Seasonal Kendall Tau (SKT) test and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model. Water-quality data at three long-term sites were used for the trend analyses in this study, with the Cochiti and Alameda sites along the Rio Grande and the Jemez Canyon Dam site along the Jemez River, a tributary of the Rio Grande. The proximity of the Cochiti and Jemez Canyon Dam sites to dams is a drawback to the analysis because it is difficult to differentiate between the influence of dam management and the influence of streamflow on water-quality trends. The data used also did not fully meet desired levels of seasonal sampling density and had shorter periods of record than typically used for trend analysis, and this should be considered in the interpretation of these results. Study results indicate that concentrations, and thereby fluxes, are influenced by changes in streamflow at the Alameda site. Most trends from the WRTDS results, obtained by using flow-normalization, were downward for constituents at the Alameda site. Most constituents that were analyzed for trends by using SKT did not have a significant trend at any of the sites included in this study, indicating either that the water quality in the Middle Rio Grande Basin has been stable during the study period or that not enough samples were collected during different seasons to characterize the range of concentration variability with streamflow. The SKT test results indicate upward trends in concentrations of the following constituents: aluminum and antimony at the Alameda site, nitrate and nitrate plus nitrite at the Cochiti site, and potassium and antimony during the spring season at Jemez Canyon Dam. The SKT test results indicate a downward trend in cobalt at the Cochiti site that is subject to bias in the cobalt concentrations. SKT test results also indicate small, downward trends in Kjeldahl nitrogen at the Alameda and Cochiti sites. Concentrations of water-quality constituents were also compared to Federal and State water-quality standards to provide context and relevance to the results. No concentrations were above the national primary or secondary drinking water standards at the Alameda and Cochiti sites, but the Jemez Canyon Dam site did have concentrations above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary drinking water standard for arsenic and above the national secondary drinking water standards for dissolved solids and aluminum. The Alameda and Cochiti sites are on reaches of the Rio Grande that are listed as impaired for gross alpha particles and the Alameda site is on a reach of the Rio Grande that is listed as impaired for Escherichia coli , but there were no consistent changes in concentrations of these constituents at the impaired locations.

New Mexico↗

Update and recalibration of the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico

The Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model (RGTIHM) was developed through an interagency effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Reclamation to provide a tool for analyzing the hydrologic system response to the historical evolution of water use and potential changes in water supplies and demands in the Hatch Valley (also known as Rincon Valley in the study area) and Mesilla Basin, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico. Reclamation operates the Rio Grande Project (RGP) to store and deliver surface water for irrigation and municipal use within the study area and in the El Paso Valley south of the El Paso Narrows. Biases in the RGTIHM’s simulation of streamflow and aquifer storage depletion and the availability of new estimates of historical agricultural consumptive use in the study area initiated an update and recalibration of the RGTIHM. In addition to the new estimates of historical agricultural consumptive use, updates were made to more accurately represent the natural system and included adjustments to the initial groundwater levels; streamflow rating tables; Rio Grande, canal, and drain streambed elevations; tributary streambed elevations; surface-water inflows and diversions; RGP surface-water deliveries and canal waste; on-farm efficiency; the routing of surface-water runoff within the MODFLOW Farm Process; and general head boundaries used to simulate interbasin groundwater flow. Model settings, including the assignment of hydraulic conductivity and storage properties to model layers and the MODFLOW solver package, were adjusted to improve numerical stability, and the model was recalibrated to better simulate the natural system. The updated and recalibrated RGTIHM demonstrates a robust ability to simulate the spatially and temporally variable measurements, estimates, or reports of hydraulic head, surface-water flows, agricultural pumping, RGP surface-water deliveries and canal waste, and decadal aquifer storage changes, with improvements over the previous version of the model.

Chihuahua, New Mexico, Texas↗

Comparison of storm runoff models for a small watershed in an urban metropolitan area, Albuquerque, New Mexico

In order to comply with a current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency watershed-based National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit, the City of Albuquerque required a better understanding of the rainfall-runoff processes in its small urban watersheds. That requirement prompted the initiation of the assessment of three existing watershed models that were developed to simulate those processes. Three existing rainfall-runoff modeling software packages—Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) (using two sets of methods), Program for Predicting Polluting Particle Passage Through Pits, Puddles, and Ponds (P8), and Arid-Lands Hydrologic Model (AHYMO)—were compared to determine which provided the best balance of accuracy and usability for simulating storm runoff in small watersheds in the urbanized area of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Additionally, results of this study could help inform model users who have interest in simulating storm runoff in similar urban areas throughout the United States. Each model was used to simulate storm runoff in the Hahn Arroyo watershed, an urbanized watershed with concrete-lined arroyo channels in the northeastern quadrant of Albuquerque that exhibits flashy, monsoonal-driven storm runoff. Model results were compared to observed discharge data, according to literature-recommended performance measures and performance evaluation criteria. The HEC-HMS model using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) and SCS unit hydrograph methods ranked the highest when averaging the individual performance measures (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, percent bias, and coefficient of determination) rankings together across the hourly calibration and validation periods, followed by P8, which was tied with the HEC-HMS initial and constant approach. For daily rankings using the same rank-averaging approach, the HEC-HMS CN-based model and P8 were tied for the highest ranking, followed by the HEC-HMS initial and constant approach. Alternatively, rating performance using validation period results as an indication of the expected confidence in forecasted results for future conditions, the P8 model performed best for both hourly and daily time-steps, followed by the HEC-HMS CN-based model and the HEC-HMS initial and constant-based model. However, based on the literature performance evaluation criteria, the HEC-HMS and P8 models overall had marginally satisfactory performance only for operation at the daily time-step. Direct comparison of the HEC-HMS and P8 models to the AHYMO is difficult, given the different performance assessment criteria used to assess these models separately in this study, as recommended by the literature. The AHYMO results generally lacked precision, given the wide range in the performance assessment values across events in percent error in peak discharge, difference in timing of peak discharge, percent error in total runoff volume, and difference in duration of event relative to observed data. For some events, however, the AHYMO results were fairly accurate, and AHYMO was likely a good predictor of the timing of storm runoff and the shape of the hydrograph. This study did not assess the results for all potential applications of the models in the Albuquerque urbanized area. Further study may be required to assess the model performance capabilities in other modeling applications.

New Mexico↗

Assessment of soil and water resources in the Organ Mountains-Desert Peaks National Monument, New Mexico

The Organ Mountains-Desert Peaks National Monument (Monument) in southern New Mexico was established in 2014. Given anticipated future demands in the Monument for recreation, livestock grazing, and maintenance of rights-of-way (for example, pipelines and powerlines), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) needs a better understanding of the current soil and water resources and how infrastructure improvements could affect these resources and the watershed. Specifically, the BLM is concerned with infiltration and erosion and their relations to existing or planned infrastructure, such as roads, campgrounds, location of livestock grazing, and rights-of-way. Alternatives to the current land-use conditions, land-management practices, and infrastructure will be assessed by BLM to best protect Monument resources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the BLM, conducted a study to assess the soil and water resources within the Monument to provide an inventory and compilation of natural-resource information needed by resource managers for the BLM’s land-use planning process for this new national monument. The overall objectives of this study were to (1) compile and interpret existing soil- and water-resource data for the Monument and (2) provide a basic assessment of the surface hydrological effects of selected alternatives to current land use and infrastructure. Data were compiled by using geographic information system software and evaluated for hydrologic and landscape properties that influence infiltration, runoff, and erosion. The effects of changing vegetation were simulated by using different scenarios in the Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model. Results of this model indicate areas where soil loss or runoff may occur.

New Mexico↗

Anderson Ranch wetlands hydrologic characterization in Taos County, New Mexico

The Anderson Ranch property (study area), located in Taos County, north-central New Mexico, was transferred from Chevron Mining, Inc. (CMI) to the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) as part of a Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration (NRDAR) court-ordered settlement. The study area supports freshwater emergent wetlands and freshwater ponds. The settlement states that CMI will provide the land and a monetary settlement to support the restoration of the wetlands on the property. To best manage the study area, the BLM requires an understanding of potential effects of climate variability and groundwater withdrawals on the wetland function. This study, completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the BLM, provides an initial hydrologic characterization of the study area, which included literature review, collection of groundwater-level and aqueous-chemistry data, completion of a vegetation survey, and preliminary data analysis. The data compiled, collected, and analyzed as part of this study indicate that the wetlands within the study area are groundwater fed and that the water maintaining the wetlands is modern. Surface-water levels in the pond and groundwater levels in the surrounding wetland fluctuate seasonally. The hydraulic gradient in the study area is from northeast to southwest. Evapotranspiration is a main driver of water demand within the study area.

New Mexico↗

Characterization and load estimation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from selected Rio Grande tributary stormwater channels in the Albuquerque urbanized area, New Mexico, 2017–18

In cooperation with the New Mexico County of Bernalillo, the U.S. Geological Survey characterized potential polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentration and estimated loading into the Rio Grande from watersheds that are under the county’s jurisdiction. Water and sediment samples were collected in 2017–18 from six sites within four stormwater drainage basins in the Albuquerque, New Mexico, urbanized area for the analysis of PCB congeners and other water-quality constituents during dry and wet seasons. Also, the rainfall-runoff model Arid Lands Hydrologic Model (AHYMO) was used to estimate stormwater discharge at the two sample collection sites not affected by pump station operation. Along with the PCB analysis, the discharge data were used to estimate total PCB stormflow event loads for eight events in these urban Rio Grande tributaries. PCBs were detected in 34 of 36 water samples at concentrations as high as 65.8 nanograms per liter and in 12 of 13 sediment samples at concentrations as high as 163,000 nanograms per kilogram dry weight. Six of the 36 water samples exceeded the New Mexico surface-water quality standard for protection of wildlife habitat and aquatic life of 14 nanograms per liter for PCBs. None of the water samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit level limit of 200 nanograms per liter for PCBs in stormwater systems discharging into the Rio Grande. PCB concentrations in water samples in this study were not linearly related to antecedent precipitation or measured water-quality parameters, but PCB concentrations had a statistically significant positive Kendall’s tau correlation with total suspended solids for water samples and with total organic carbon for sediment samples. The PCB congener profiles indicate that sources to stormwater drainage basins in Bernalillo County originate both from legacy sources, such as Aroclors (for example, in landfills and old building materials), and from current-use sources, such as yellow pigments (for example, in printed materials and packaging in urban litter or refuse). Total PCB stormflow event loads were calculated with average potential minimum and maximum event loads of 0.73 and 4.32 milligrams per storm event, respectively, at the Adobe Acres pump station site and 56.78 and 315.13 milligrams per storm event at the Sanchez Farms inflow at Albuquerque, N. Mex., site.

New Mexico↗

Bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) telemetry and associated habitat data collected in a geodatabase from the upper Boise River, southwestern Idaho

Bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ), listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, are among the more thermally sensitive of coldwater species in North America. The Boise River upstream of Arrowrock Dam in southwestern Idaho (including Arrowrock Reservoir) provides habitat for one of the southernmost populations of bull trout. The presence of the species in Arrowrock Reservoir poses implications for dam and reservoir operations. From 2011 to 2014, the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey collected fish telemetry data to improve understanding of bull trout distribution and movement in Arrowrock Reservoir and in the upper Boise River tributaries. The U.S. Geological Survey compiled the telemetry (fish location) data, along with reservoir elevation, river discharge, precipitation, and water-quality data in a geodatabase. The geodatabase includes metadata compliant with Federal Geographic Data Committee content standards. The Bureau of Reclamation plans to incorporate the data in a decision‑support tool for reservoir management.

Idaho↗