Geology topics

Zachary G. Loman

Publications and source records attributed to Zachary G. Loman.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Trends in colony sizes for five colonial waterbird species in the Atlantic Flyway

Robust estimates of colonial waterbird (CWB) breeding population trends are deficient owing to a lack of range wide, standardized survey efforts. Evaluating conservation priorities and effectiveness of management requires reliable trend estimates across multiple spatial scales. One potential data source for CWB trend estimation is the Colonial Waterbird Database, created in 2003 by U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and intermittently updated since then. The database combines state or provincial survey data, particularly from the United States Atlantic Flyway, with historical colony counts obtained from publications. We combined recently collected survey data from Atlantic Flyway states and provinces with data archived in the database to generate population size trend estimates for five species: Double-crested Cormorant ( Phalacrocorax auritus ), Laughing Gull ( Leucophaeus atricilla ), Least Tern ( Sternula antillarum ), Common Tern ( Sterna hirundo ), and Black Skimmer ( Rynchops niger ). These species represent two actively managed conflict species and three species of conservation concern, respectively. We used mixed effects models to fit an exponential growth model to determine yearly trends in populations at Atlantic Flyway- and state-scales with survey data collected between 1964 and 2019. Direction of within-state trend estimates varied. Trends for some species (Common Tern, Laughing Gull) were increasing in northern states and decreasing further south. At the Flyway scale, Double-crested Cormorant increased (2.08 ± 0.28 % year-1) and Least Tern (-1.40 ± 0.36 % year-1) and Black Skimmer (-1.13 ± 0.68 % year -1) decreased, while Flyway-scale trends in Common Tern and Laughing Gull were not significant. Our analysis provides cross-state trend estimates to inform CWB management actions along the Atlantic Flyway.

Cooperator Science Series↗

USGS2020

Testing prediction accuracy in short-term ecological studies

Applied ecology is based on an assumption that a management action will result in a predicted outcome. Testing the prediction accuracy of ecological models is the most powerful way of evaluating the knowledge implicit in this cause-effect relationship, however, the prevalence of predictive modeling and prediction testing are spreading slowly in ecology. The challenge of prediction testing is particularly acute for small-scale studies, because withholding data for prediction testing (e.g., via k -fold cross validation) can reduce model precision. However, by necessity small-scale studies are common. We use one such study that explored small mammal abundance along an elevational gradient to test prediction accuracy of models with varying degrees of information content. For each of three small mammal species, we conducted 5000 iterations of the following process: (1) randomly selected 75 % of the data to develop generalized linear models of species abundance that used detailed site measurements as covariates, (2) used an information theoretic approach to compare the top model with detailed covariates to habitat type-only and null models constructed with the same data, (3) tested those models’ ability to predict the 25 % of the randomly withheld data, and (4) evaluated prediction accuracy with a quadratic loss function. Detailed models fit the model-evaluation data best but had greater expected prediction error when predicting out-of-sample data relative to the habitat type models. Relationships between species and detailed site variables may be evident only within the framework of explicitly hierarchical analyses. We show that even with a small but relatively typical dataset ( n = 28 sampling locations across 125 km over two years), researchers can effectively compare models with different information content and measure models’ predictive power, thus evaluating their own ecological understanding and defining the limits of their inferences. Identifying the appropriate scope of inference through prediction testing is ecologically valuable and is attainable even with small datasets.

Maine, New Hampshire↗

USGS2017

Nest survival modelling using a multi-species approach in forests managed for timber and biofuel feedstock

Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) intercropping is a novel forest management practice for biomass production intended to generate cellulosic feedstocks within intensively managed loblolly pine‐dominated landscapes. These pine plantations are important for early‐successional bird species, as short rotation times continually maintain early‐successional habitat. We tested the efficacy of using community models compared to individual surrogate species models in understanding influences on nest survival. We analysed nest data to test for differences in habitat use for 14 bird species in plots managed for switchgrass intercropping and controls within loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda ) plantations in Mississippi, USA. We adapted hierarchical models using hyper‐parameters to incorporate information from both common and rare species to understand community‐level nest survival. This approach incorporates rare species that are often discarded due to low sample sizes, but can inform community‐level demographic parameter estimates. We illustrate use of this approach in generating both species‐level and community‐wide estimates of daily survival rates for songbird nests. We were able to include rare species with low sample size (minimum n = 5) to inform a hyper‐prior, allowing us to estimate effects of covariates on daily survival at the community level, then compare this with a single‐species approach using surrogate species. Using single‐species models, we were unable to generate estimates below a sample size of 21 nests per species. Community model species‐level survival and parameter estimates were similar to those generated by five single‐species models, with improved precision in community model parameters. Covariates of nest placement indicated that switchgrass at the nest site (<4 m) reduced daily nest survival, although intercropping at the forest stand level increased daily nest survival. Synthesis and applications . Community models represent a viable method for estimating community nest survival rates and effects of covariates while incorporating limited data for rarely detected species. Intercropping switchgrass in loblolly pine plantations slightly increased daily nest survival at the research plot scale (0.1 km 2 ), although at a local scale (50 m 2 ) switchgrass negatively influenced nest survival. A likely explanation is intercropping shifted community composition, favouring species with greater disturbance tolerance.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2017

Landscape capability models as a tool to predict fine-scale forest bird occupancy and abundance

Context Species-specific models of landscape capability (LC) can inform landscape conservation design. Landscape capability is “the ability of the landscape to provide the environment […] and the local resources […] needed for survival and reproduction […] in sufficient quantity, quality and accessibility to meet the life history requirements of individuals and local populations.” Landscape capability incorporates species’ life histories, ecologies, and distributions to model habitat for current and future landscapes and climates as a proactive strategy for conservation planning. Objectives We tested the ability of a set of LC models to explain variation in point occupancy and abundance for seven bird species representative of spruce-fir, mixed conifer-hardwood, and riparian and wooded wetland macrohabitats. Methods We compiled point count data sets used for biological inventory, species monitoring, and field studies across the northeastern United States to create an independent validation data set. Our validation explicitly accounted for underestimation in validation data using joint distance and time removal sampling. Results Blackpoll warbler ( Setophaga striata ), wood thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina ), and Louisiana ( Parkesia motacilla ) and northern waterthrush ( P. noveboracensis ) models were validated as predicting variation in abundance, although this varied from not biologically meaningful (1%) to strongly meaningful (59%). We verified all seven species models [including ovenbird ( Seiurus aurocapilla ), blackburnian ( Setophaga fusca ) and cerulean warbler ( Setophaga cerulea )], as all were positively related to occupancy data. Conclusions LC models represent a useful tool for conservation planning owing to their predictive ability over a regional extent. As improved remote-sensed data become available, LC layers are updated, which will improve predictions.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2017

Landscape capability predicts upland game bird abundance and occurrence

Landscape capability (LC) models are a spatial tool with potential applications in conservation planning. We used survey data to validate LC models as predictors of occurrence and abundance at broad and fine scales for American woodcock ( Scolopax minor ) and ruffed grouse ( Bonasa umbellus ). Landscape capability models were reliable predictors of occurrence but were less indicative of relative abundance at route (11.5–14.6 km) and point scales (0.5–1 km). As predictors of occurrence, LC models had high sensitivity (0.71–0.93) and were accurate (0.71–0.88) and precise (0.88 and 0.92 for woodcock and grouse, respectively). Models did not predict point-scale abundance independent of the ability to predict occurrence of either species. The LC models are useful predictors of patterns of occurrences in the northeastern United States, but they have limited utility as predictors of fine-scale or route-specific abundances.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2014

Breeding bird community response to establishing intercropped switchgrass in intensively-managed pine stands

Intercropping switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) between tree rows within young pine ( Pinus spp.) plantations is a potential method to generate lignocellulosic biofuel feedstocks within intensively managed forests. Intensively managed pine supports a diverse avian assemblage potentially affected by establishment and maintenance of an annual biomass feedstock via changes in plant communities, dead wood resources, and habitat structure. We sought to understand how establishing switchgrass on an operational scale affects bird communities within intercropped plantations as compared to typical intensively managed loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.) forest. We conducted breeding bird point counts using distance sampling for three years (2011–2013) following establishment of intercropped switchgrass stands (6 replicates), traditionally-managed pine plantations, and switchgrass-only plots (0.1 km 2 minimum) in Kemper Co., MS. We detected 59 breeding bird species from 11,195 detections. Neotropical migrants and forest-edge associated species were less abundant in intercropped plots than controls the first two years after establishment and more abundant in year three. Short distance migrants and residents were scarce in intercropped and control plots initially, and did not differ between these two treatments in any year. Species associated with pine-grass habitat structure were less abundant initially in intercropped plots, but converged with pine controls in subsequent years. Switchgrass monocultures provided minimal resources for birds. If songbird conservation is a management priority, managers should consider potential reductions of some breeding birds for one to two years following intercropping. It is unclear how these relationships may change outside the breeding season and as stands age.

Biomass and Bioenergy↗

USGS2013

Site preparation for switchgrass intercropping in loblolly pine plantations reduces retained trees and snags, but maintains downed woody debris

Within young pine ( Pinus spp.) plantations, coarse woody debris (CWD) and green trees are important habitat structures that may be impacted by the production of biofuel feedstock. Therefore, we compared site preparation procedures associated with switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) intercropping to determine effects on CWD and green trees in stands ( n = 24) site-prepared for intercropping, with switchgrass only, or pine plantation in Mississippi, USA. Following site preparation, CWD dispersal or volume did not differ between intercropped and control stands. Intercropped stands had significantly fewer retained trees and snags. Switchgrass monocultures had no retained trees or piles and significantly fewer pieces and less volume of CWD than the other treatments. Our results suggest switchgrass intercropping may provide similar habitat quality to traditional pine plantations for wildlife species using these areas in the year following disturbance, but may provide a less suitable habitat for species that require snags. However, the relationship between snag reduction and wildlife population response in an intercropped setting is not clear and should be further investigated. Regardless, if retaining snags is a desired outcome, site preparation for switchgrass should be restricted to the interbed area where it will be cultivated as opposed to extensive debris removal from the entire site.

Mississippi↗