Geology topics

Yoshiki Yamazaki

Publications and source records attributed to Yoshiki Yamazaki.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

A 700-year rupture sequence of great eastern Aleutian earthquakes from tsunami modeling of stratigraphic records

Great Aleutian underthrusting earthquakes produced destructive tsunamis impacting Hawaiʻi in 1946 and 1957. Prior modeling of the 1957 tsunami deposit and runup records on eastern Aleutian and Hawaiian Islands jointly with tide-gauge observations across the Pacific Ocean constrained a rupture model with shallow slip up to 26 m along 600 km of the plate boundary. Here we implement this modeling approach to older deposits and show alternating deep and shallow megathrust slip up to 26, 32, and 22 m for great earthquakes along the same segment in the 18 th , 15 th , and 14 th centuries. All three modeled prehistoric Aleutian earthquakes produce tsunami inundation in Hawaiʻi with the most severe, 14 th century event having impacts exceeding the 1957 event. The along-dip variability of these four ruptures spanning seven centuries provides insights on earthquake cycles for engineering design and hazard assessment. The 15 th century and 1957 rupture models provide evidence for recurrence of tsunami earthquakes, which can produce disproportionately large tsunamis for a given moment magnitude due to reduced rigidity in the shallow megathrust. The 14 th and 18 th century events likely ruptured deeper regions that did not slip in 1957, suggesting potential for corresponding deeper failure in the next great eastern Aleutian earthquake.

Alaska, Hawaii↗

USGS2024

A great tsunami earthquake component of the 1957 Aleutian Islands earthquake

The great 1957 Aleutian Islands earthquake ruptured ∼1200 km of the plate boundary along the Aleutian subduction zone and produced a destructive tsunami across Hawaiʻi. Early seismic and tsunami analyses indicated that large megathrust fault slip was concentrated in the western Aleutian Islands, but tsunami waves generated by slip in the west cannot explain the large observed runup in Hawaiʻi far to the southeast. Recently mapped 1957 geologic deposits on eastern Aleutian Islands suggest occurrence of very large nearby slip. Jointly modeling tsunami runup along the eastern Aleutian and Hawaiian Islands together with tide gauge recordings across the Pacific resolves 12-26 m shallow slip along 600 km of the eastern Aleutian Islands in addition to modest, deeper western slip inferred from seismic records. The eastern near-trench slip results in an M W 8.3-8.6 tsunami earthquake component of the M W 8.6-8.8 rupture, comparable in size to the adjacent 1946 Aleutian tsunami earthquake to the east. The reexamination of the 1957 rupture confirms the tsunami hazards posed by the eastern Aleutian subduction zone to Hawaiʻi and lays the groundwork for investigation of large prehistoric earthquakes through modeling tsunami runup inferred from stratigraphic observations to constrain their rupture processes.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Modeling non-structural strategies to reduce pedestrian evacuation times for mitigating local tsunami threats in Guam

Reducing the potential for loss of life from local tsunamis is challenging for emergency managers given the need for self-protective behavior of at-risk individuals within brief windows of time to evacuate. There has been considerable attention paid to discussing the use of tsunami vertical-evacuation structures for areas where there may be insufficient time to evacuate. This strategy may not be feasible or needed for at-risk populations in island communities for multiple reasons. We examine the influence of three non-structural interventions (reducing departure delays, increasing travel speeds, and managing vegetation to create new paths) that may improve the evacuation potential for at-risk individuals in island communities and use the United States territory of Guam as our case study. We model pedestrian travel times out of a modeled inundation zone for a local tsunami generated by a M w 8.3 earthquake within the Mariana subduction zone. Evacuation-modeling results indicate that reducing departure delays has a larger impact than increasing travel speeds or creating evacuation corridors through heavy brush on reducing the number of at-risk individuals with insufficient time to evacuate. Travel times to safety are less than wave-arrival times for almost all at-risk individuals in the tsunami-hazard zone if one assumes all three interventions are implemented.

Guam↗

USGS2018

Population vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: A case study of American Samoa

Population vulnerability from tsunamis is a function of the number and location of individuals in hazard zones and their ability to reach safety before wave arrival. Previous tsunami disasters can provide insight on likely evacuation behavior, but post-disaster assessments have not been used extensively in evacuation modeling. We demonstrate the utility of post-disaster assessments in pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunami hazards and use the US territory of American Samoa as our case study. We model pedestrian travel times out of tsunami inundation zones recreated for the 2009 M w 8.1 Samoa earthquake, as well as for a probable maximum tsunami zone for future threats. Modeling assumptions are guided by fatality trends and observations of 2009 evacuation behavior, including insights on departure delays, environmental cues, transportation mode, and demographic characteristics. Differences in actual fatalities from the 2009 disaster and modeled population vulnerability suggest that a single set of estimated travel times to safety does not fully characterize evacuation potential of a dispersed, at-risk population. Efforts to prepare coastal communities in American Samoa for future tsunamis may be challenging given substantial differences in wave characteristics and evacuation potential of the probable maximum hazard compared to the 2009 event.

American Samoa↗