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Xinchen He

Publications and source records attributed to Xinchen He.

4 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Modeling daily ice cover in northern hemisphere lakes with a long short‐term memory neural network

Quantifying lake ice loss is crucial for understanding the impact of climate change on lake ecosystems. In this study, we trained a deep learning model (Long-Short Term Memory with Landsat observations, 1984–2012) to simulate Northern Hemisphere lake ice changes at a fine spatial scale (> 0.1 km 2 ) from 1980 to 2022. The model achieved good performance overall during the test period (2013–2022), and the derived ice-on and ice-off matched well with two independent ice phenology data sets. Results reveal a 76.8% increase in intermittently ice-covered lakes from the 1980s to the 2010s, alongside a 10.7-day shorter ice duration and a 3.9 percentage-points reduction in annual mean ice cover fractions. The model can track daily partial ice cover changes, providing a novel contribution to understanding shifts in lake ice cover with climate change. These findings can provide valuable insights for future limnology studies, such as improving estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from lakes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2024

A multi-sensor approach to characterize winter water-level drawdown patterns in lakes

Artificial manipulation of lake water levels through practices like winter water-level drawdown (WD) is prevalent across many regions, but the spatiotemporal patterns are not well documented due to limited in situ monitoring. Multi-sensor satellite remote sensing provides an opportunity to map and analyze drawdown frequency and metrics (timing, magnitude, duration) at broad scales. This study developed a cloud computing framework to process time series of synthetic aperture radar (Sentinel 1-SAR) and optical sensor (Landsat 8, Sentinel 2) data to characterize WD in 166 lakes across Massachusetts, USA, during 2016–2021. Comparisons with in situ logger data showed that the Sentinel 1-derived surface water area captured relative water-level fluctuations indicative of WD. A machine learning approach classified lakes as WD versus non-WD based on seasonal water-level fluctuations derived from Sentinel 1-SAR data. The framework mapped WD lakes statewide, revealing prevalence throughout Massachusetts with interannual variability. Results showed WDs occurred in over 75% of lakes during the study period, with high interannual variability in the number of lakes conducting WD. Mean WD magnitude was highest in the wettest year (2018) but % lake area exposure did not show any association with precipitation and varied between 8% to 12% over the 5-year period. WD start date was later and duration was longer in wet years, indicating climate mediation of WD implementation driven by management decisions. The data and tools developed provide an objective information resource to evaluate ecological impacts and guide management of this prevalent but understudied phenomenon. Overall, the results and interactive web tool developed as part of this study provide new hydrologic intelligence to inform water management and policies related to WD practices.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2023

Developing a stochastic hydrological model for informing lake water level drawdown management

Winter drawdown (WD) is a common lake management tool for multiple purposes such as flood control, aquatic vegetation reduction, and lake infrastructure maintenance. To minimize adverse impacts to a lake’s ecosystem, regulatory agencies may provide managers with general guidelines for drawdown and refill timing, drawdown magnitude, and outflow limitations. However, there is significant uncertainty associated with the potential to meet management targets due to variability in lake characteristics and hydrometeorology of each lake’s basin, making the use of modeling tools a necessity. In this context, we developed a hydrological modeling framework for lake water level drawdown management (HMF-Lake) and evaluated it at 15 Massachusetts lakes where WDs have been applied over multiple years for vegetation control. HMF-Lake is based on the daily lake water balance, with inflows simulated by a lumped rainfall-runoff model (Cemaneige-GR4J) and outflow rate calculated by a modified Target Storage and Release Based Method (TSRB). The model showed a satisfactory performance of simulating historical water levels (0.53 ≤ NSE ≤ 0.86), however, uncertainties from meteorological inputs and TSRB determined lake outflow rate affected the result accuracy. To account for these uncertainties, the model was executed stochastically to assess the ability of study lakes to follow the Massachusetts’ general WD guidelines: drawdown by Dec 1 and fully refilled by Apr 1. By using the stochastic HMF-Lake, the probabilities of each lake to reach the drawdown level by Dec 1 were calculated for different drawdown magnitudes (1–6 ft). The probability results suggest it was generally less possible for most of study lakes to achieve a drawdown of 3 ft or more by Dec 1. Moreover, we employed the stochastic model to derive the annual latest refill starting dates that ensure a 95 % probability of reaching the normal water level by Apr 1. We found starting a refill in March for drawdowns up to 6 ft was feasible for most of study lakes. These results provide lake managers with a quantitative understanding of the lake’s ability to follow the state guidelines. The model may be used to systematically evaluate current WD management strategies at state or regional scales and support adaptive WD management under changing climates.

Massachusetts↗