Xianming Xiao | Geology Reports

USGS2016

Spatial modeling of wild bird risk factors to investigate highly pathogenic A(H5N1) avian influenza virus transmission

One of the longest-persisting avian influenza viruses in history, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A(H5N1), continues to evolve after 18 years, advancing the threat of a global pandemic. Wild waterfowl (family Anatidae), are reported as secondary transmitters of HPAIV, and primary reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses, yet spatial inputs for disease risk modeling for this group have been lacking. Using GIS and Monte Carlo simulations, we developed geospatial indices of waterfowl abundance at 1 and 30 km resolutions and for the breeding and wintering seasons for China, the epicenter of H5N1. Two spatial layers were developed: cumulative waterfowl abundance (WAB), a measure of predicted abundance across species, and cumulative abundance weighted by H5N1 prevalence (WPR), whereby abundance for each species was adjusted based on prevalence values then totaled across species. Spatial patterns of the model output differed between seasons, with higher WAB and WPR in the northern and western regions of China for the breeding season and in the southeast for the wintering season. Uncertainty measures indicated highest error in southeastern China for both WAB and WPR. We also explored the effect of resampling waterfowl layers from 1 km to 30 km resolution for multi-scale risk modeling. Results indicated low average difference (less than 0.16 and 0.01 standard deviations for WAB and WPR, respectively), with greatest differences in the north for the breeding season and southeast for the wintering season. This work provides the first geospatial models of waterfowl abundance available for China. The indices provide important inputs for modeling disease transmission risk at the interface of poultry and wild birds. These models are easily adaptable, have broad utility to both disease and conservation needs, and will be available to the scientific community for advanced modeling applications.

Avian Diseases↗

USGS2015

Introduction to special section: China shale gas and shale oil plays

In the last 10 years, the success of shale gas and shale oil productions as a result of technological advances in horizontal drilling, hydraulic fracturing and nanoscale reservoir characterization have revolutionized the energy landscape in the United States. Resource assessment by the China Ministry of Land and Resources in 2010 and 2012 and by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in 2011 and 2013 indicates China’s shale gas resource is the largest in the world and shale oil resource in China is also potentially significant. Inspired by the success in the United States, China looks forward to replicating the U.S. experience to produce shale gas to power its economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. By 2014, China had drilled 400 wells targeting marine, lacustrine, and coastal swamp transitional shales spanning in age from the Precambrian to Cenozoic in the last five years. So far, China is the leading country outside of North America in the viable production of shale gas, with very promising prospects for shale gas and shale oil development, from the Lower Silurian Longmaxi marine shale in Fuling in the southeastern Sichuan Basin. Geological investigations by government and academic institutions as well as exploration and production activities from industry indicate that the tectonic framework, depositional settings, and geomechanical properties of most of the Chinese shales are more complex than many of the producing marine shales in the United States. These differences limit the applicability of geologic analogues from North America for use in Chinese shale oil and gas resource assessments, exploration strategies, reservoir characterization, and determination of optimal hydraulic fracturing techniques. Understanding the unique features of the geology, shale oil and gas resource potential, and reservoir characteristics is crucial for sweet spot identification, hydraulic fracturing optimization, and reservoir performance prediction. Even though China shale gas and shale oil exploration is still in an early stage, limited data are already available. We are pleased to have selected eight high-quality papers from fifteen submitted manuscripts for this timely section on the topic of China shale gas and shale oil plays. These selected papers discuss various subject areas including regional geology, resource potentials, integrated and multidisciplinary characterization of China shale reservoirs (geology, geophysics, geochemistry, and petrophysics) China shale property measurement using new techniques, case studies for marine, lacustrine, and transitional shale deposits in China, and hydraulic fracturing. One paper summarizes the regional geology and different tectonic and depositional settings of the major prospective shale oil and gas plays in China. Four papers concentrate on the geology, geochemistry, reservoir characterization, lithologic heterogeneity, and sweet spot identification in the Silurian Longmaxi marine shale in the Sichuan Basin in southwest China, which is currently the primary focus of shale gas exploration in China. One paper discusses the Ordovician Salgan Shale in the Tarim Basin in northwest China, and two papers focus on the reservoir characterization and hydraulic fracturing of Triassic lacustrine shale in the Ordos Basin in northern China. Each paper discusses a specific area.

Interpretation↗