Geology topics

William L. Ellsworth

Publications and source records attributed to William L. Ellsworth.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Coping with earthquakes induced by fluid injection

Large areas of the United States long considered geologically stable with little or no detected seismicity have recently become seismically active. The increase in earthquake activity began in the mid-continent starting in 2001 ( 1 ) and has continued to rise. In 2014, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes with magnitudes ( M ) of 3 and greater in Oklahoma exceeded that in California (see the figure). This elevated activity includes larger earthquakes, several with M > 5, that have caused significant damage ( 2 , 3 ). To a large extent, the increasing rate of earthquakes in the mid-continent is due to fluid-injection activities used in modern energy production ( 1 , 4 , 5 ). We explore potential avenues for mitigating effects of induced seismicity. Although the United States is our focus here, Canada, China, the UK, and others confront similar problems associated with oil and gas production, whereas quakes induced by geothermal activities affect Switzerland, Germany, and others.

Science↗

USGS2015

Increasing seismicity in the U. S. midcontinent: Implications for earthquake hazard

Earthquake activity in parts of the central United States has increased dramatically in recent years. The space-time distribution of the increased seismicity, as well as numerous published case studies, indicates that the increase is of anthropogenic origin, principally driven by injection of wastewater coproduced with oil and gas from tight formations. Enhanced oil recovery and long-term production also contribute to seismicity at a few locations. Preliminary hazard models indicate that areas experiencing the highest rate of earthquakes in 2014 have a short-term (one-year) hazard comparable to or higher than the hazard in the source region of tectonic earthquakes in the New Madrid and Charleston seismic zones.

The Leading Edge↗

USGS2015

Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model: results of the 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies

The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated in 2014 to account for new methods, input models, and data necessary for assessing the seismic ground shaking hazard from natural (tectonic) earthquakes. The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model project uses probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to quantify the rate of exceedance for earthquake ground shaking (ground motion). For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model assessment, the seismic hazard from potentially induced earthquakes was intentionally not considered because we had not determined how to properly treat these earthquakes for the seismic hazard analysis. The phrases “potentially induced” and “induced” are used interchangeably in this report, however it is acknowledged that this classification is based on circumstantial evidence and scientific judgment. For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model update, the potentially induced earthquakes were removed from the NSHM’s earthquake catalog, and the documentation states that we would consider alternative models for including induced seismicity in a future version of the National Seismic Hazard Model. As part of the process of incorporating induced seismicity into the seismic hazard model, we evaluate the sensitivity of the seismic hazard from induced seismicity to five parts of the hazard model: (1) the earthquake catalog, (2) earthquake rates, (3) earthquake locations, (4) earthquake Mmax (maximum magnitude), and (5) earthquake ground motions. We describe alternative input models for each of the five parts that represent differences in scientific opinions on induced seismicity characteristics. In this report, however, we do not weight these input models to come up with a preferred final model. Instead, we present a sensitivity study showing uniform seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the alternative input models for induced seismicity. The final model will be released after further consideration of the reliability and scientific acceptability of each alternative input model. Forecasting the seismic hazard from induced earthquakes is fundamentally different from forecasting the seismic hazard for natural, tectonic earthquakes. This is because the spatio-temporal patterns of induced earthquakes are reliant on economic forces and public policy decisions regarding extraction and injection of fluids. As such, the rates of induced earthquakes are inherently variable and nonstationary. Therefore, we only make maps based on an annual rate of exceedance rather than the 50-year rates calculated for previous U.S. Geological Survey hazard maps.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2014

Probing reservoir-triggered earthquakes in Koyna, India, through scientific deep drilling

We report here the salient features of the recently concluded International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) workshop in Koyna, India. This workshop was a sequel to the earlier held ICDP workshop in Hyderabad and Koyna in 2011. A total of 49 experts (37 from India and 12 from 8 other countries) spent 3 days reviewing the work carried out during the last 3 years based on the recommendations of the 2011 workshop and suggesting the future course of action, including detailed planning for a full deep drilling proposal in Koyna, India. It was unanimously concluded that Koyna is one of the best sites anywhere in the world to investigate genesis of triggered earthquakes from near-field observations. A broad framework of the activities for the next phase leading to deep drilling has been worked out.

Scientific Drilling↗

USGS2014

The 2001-present induced earthquake sequence in the Raton Basin of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado

We investigate the ongoing seismicity in the Raton Basin and find that the deep injection of wastewater from the coal‐bed methane field is responsible for inducing the majority of the seismicity since 2001. Many lines of evidence indicate that this earthquake sequence was induced by wastewater injection. First, there was a marked increase in seismicity shortly after major fluid injection began in the Raton Basin in 1999. From 1972 through July 2001, there was one M≥4 earthquake in the Raton Basin, whereas 12 occurred between August 2001 and 2013. The statistical likelihood that such a rate change would occur if earthquakes behaved randomly in time is 3.0%. Moreover, this rate change is limited to the area of industrial activity. Earthquake rates remain low in the surrounding area. Second, the vast majority of the seismicity is within 5 km of active disposal wells and is shallow, ranging between 2 and 8 km depth. The two most carefully studied earthquake sequences in 2001 and 2011 have earthquakes within 2 km of high‐volume, high‐injection‐rate wells. Third, injection wells in the area are commonly very high volume and high rate. Two wells adjacent to the August 2011 M 5.3 earthquake injected about 4.9 million cubic meters of wastewater before the earthquake, more than seven times the amount injected at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal well that caused damaging earthquakes near Denver, Colorado, in the 1960s. The August 2011 M 5.3 event is the second‐largest earthquake to date for which there is clear evidence that the earthquake sequence was induced by fluid injection.

Colorado;New Mexico↗

USGS2014

The 17 May 2012 M4.8 earthquake near Timpson, East Texas: An event possibly triggered by fluid injection

This study summarizes our investigation of the 17 May 2012 MW-RMT4.8 earthquake near Timpson, Texas, the largest earthquake recorded historically in eastern Texas. To identify preshocks and aftershocks of the 17 May event we examined the arrivals recorded at Nacogdoches (NATX) 30 km from the 17 May epicenter, at nearby USArray Transportable Array stations, and at eight temporary stations deployed between 26 May 2012 and mid-2013. At NATX we identified seven preshocks, the earliest occurring in April 2008. Reliably located aftershocks recorded by the temporary stations lie along a 6 km long NW-SE linear trend corresponding to a previously mapped basement fault that extends across the highest-intensity (MMI VII) region of the 17 May main shock. Earthquakes in this sequence are relatively shallow—with focal depths ranging from 1.6 to 4.6 km. Evidence supporting these depths include: hypocentral locations of exceptionally well-recorded aftershocks, S-P intervals at the nearest stations, and comparisons of synthetics and observed seismograms. Within 3 km of the linear trend of aftershock activity there are two Class II injection disposal wells injecting at 1.9 km depth beginning in August 2006 and February 2007, with injection rates averaging 42,750 m3/mo and 15,600 m3/mo, respectively. Several observations support the hypothesis that fluid injection triggered the Timpson sequence: well-located epicenters are situated near a mapped basement fault and near high-volume injection wells, focal depths are at or below the depths of injection, and the earliest preshock (April 2008) occurred after the onset of injection in 2006.

Texas↗

USGS2014

Seismic monitoring at the Decatur, Ill., CO2 sequestration demonstration site

The viability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases depends on the ability to safely sequester large quantities of CO2 over geologic time scales. One concern with CCS is the potential of induced seismicity. We report on ongoing seismic monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at a CCS demonstration site in Decatur, IL, in an effort to understand the potential hazards posed by injection-induced seismicity associated with geologic CO2 sequestration. At Decatur, super-critical CO2 is injected at 2.1 km depth into the 550-m-thick Mt. Simon Sandstone, which directly overlies granitic basement. The primary sealing cap rock is the Eau Claire Shale, a 100- to 150-m-thick unit at a depth of roughly 1.5 km. The USGS seismic network consists of 12 stations, three of which have surface accelerometers and three-component borehole geophones. We derived a one-dimensional velocity models from a vertical seismic profile acquired by Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and the Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) to a depth of 2.2 km, tied into shallow acoustic logs from our borehole stations and assuming a 6 km/sec P-wave velocity for granite below 2.2 km. We further assume a constant ratio of P- to S-wave velocities of 1.83, as derived from velocity model inversions. We use this velocity model to locate seismic events, all of which are within the footprint of our network. So far magnitudes of locatable events range from Mw = -1.52 to 1.07. We further improved the hypocentral precision of microseismic events when travel times and waveforms are sufficiently similar by employing double-difference relocation techniques, with relative location errors less than 80 m horizontally and 100 m vertically. We observe tend to group in three distinct clusters: ∼0.4 to 1.0 km NE, 1.6 to 2.4 km N, and ∼1.8 to 2.6 km WNW from the injection well. The first cluster of microseismicity forms a roughly linear trend, which may represent a pre-existing geologic structure. Most of these microearthquakes occur in the granitic basement at depths greater than 2.2 km, well below the caprock, and likely do not compromise the integrity of the seal. We conclude that because the observed microseismicity is occurring in the granitic basement, the integrity of the caprock seal has not been compromised by CCS activities.

Illinois↗

USGS2013

Crustal structure and fault geometry of the 2010 Haiti earthquake from temporary seismometer deployments

Haiti has been the locus of a number of large and damaging historical earthquakes. The recent 12 January 2010 Mw 7.0 earthquake affected cities that were largely unprepared, which resulted in tremendous losses. It was initially assumed that the earthquake ruptured the Enriquillo Plantain Garden fault (EPGF), a major active structure in southern Haiti, known from geodetic measurements and its geomorphic expression to be capable of producing M 7 or larger earthquakes. Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data, however, showed that the event ruptured a previously unmapped fault, the Léogâne fault, a north‐dipping oblique transpressional fault located immediately north of the EPGF. Following the earthquake, several groups installed temporary seismic stations to record aftershocks, including ocean‐bottom seismometers on either side of the EPGF. We use data from the complete set of stations deployed after the event, on land and offshore, to relocate all aftershocks from 10 February to 24 June 2010, determine a 1D regional crustal velocity model, and calculate focal mechanisms. The aftershock locations from the combined dataset clearly delineate the Léogâne fault, with a geometry close to that inferred from geodetic data. Its strike and dip closely agree with the global centroid moment tensor solution of the mainshock but with a steeper dip than inferred from previous finite fault inversions. The aftershocks also delineate a structure with shallower southward dip offshore and to the west of the rupture zone, which could indicate triggered seismicity on the offshore Trois Baies reverse fault. We use first‐motion focal mechanisms to clarify the relationship of the fault geometry to the triggered aftershocks.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

Fault healing inferred from time dependent variations in source properties of repeating earthquakes

We analyze two sets of repeating earthquakes on the Calaveras fault to estimate in-situ rates of fault strengthening (healing). Earthquake recurrence intervals t r range from 3 to 803 days. Variations in relative moment and duration are combined to study changes in stress drop, rupture dimension, rupture velocity, and particle velocity as a function of t r . Healing rates and source variations are compared with predictions of laboratory-derived friction laws. Two interpretations of event duration τ are used: one in which τ is given by the ratio of slip to particle velocity and one in which it scales as rupture dimension divided by rupture velocity. Our data indicate that faults strengthen during the interseismic period. We infer that source dimension decreases with t r due to aseismic creep within the region surrounding the repeating events. Stress drop increases 1–3MPa per decade increase in t r , which represents an increase of a factor of 2–3 relative to events with t r between 10 and 100 days. This rate of fault healing is consistent with extrapolations of laboratory measurements of healing rates if fault strength is high, on order of 60MPa, and stress drop is roughly 10% of this value.

California↗

USGS2012

The October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake and its aftershocks: Geometry of the sequence from high-resolution locations

Hypocenters of the Loma Prieta sequence form a dipping zone that rises from the mainshock hypocenter and is parallel to the mainshock nodal plane. Most aftershocks cluster around the perimeter of the zone, surrounding a relatively aseismic center which approximates the region of mainshock rupture. At its southeastern end, the dipping aftershock zone warps into a vertical surface that corresponds to the San Andreas fault. In the central and northwestern parts of the zone at depths above ∼10 km, the aftershocks define numerous disjoint fault structures. The large component of reverse-slip observed in this event agrees with a simple model for slip on a dipping plane within a compressional fault bend. We do not believe that the Loma Prieta earthquake occurred on the Sargent fault. However, we are unable to conclude whether it ruptured the principal plate boundary fault or a less frequently active fault.

California↗

USGS2012

Coseismic stress changes induced by the 1989 Loma Prieta, California Earthquake

Earthquake focal mechanisms from before and after the 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake are used to infer the coseismic stress change. Before the main shock, most earthquakes correspond to right lateral slip on planes sub-parallel to the San Andreas fault, and imply a generally N-S most compressional stress axis and a vertical intermediate stress axis. Aftershocks within the main shock rupture zone, however, display almost every style and orientation of faulting, implying an extremely heterogeneous stress field. This suggests that the main shock relieved most, if not all, of the shear stress acting on its fault plane. Aftershocks that lie on the perimeter of the rupture agree with spatially uniform stress states, but only when considered in three groups: north, south, and above the main shock rupture area. In each of these areas the stress state may reflect stress transfer by the main shock.

California↗

USGS2012

Heavy tails and earthquake probabilities

The 21st century has already seen its share of devastating earthquakes, some of which have been labeled as “unexpected,” at least in the eyes of some seismologists and more than a few journalists. A list of seismological surprises could include the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Islands; 2008 Wenchuan, China; 2009 Haiti; 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand; and 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquakes

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2012

Source parameters of microearthquakes on an interplate asperity off Kamaishi, NE Japan over two earthquake cycles

We have estimated the source parameters of interplate earthquakes in an earthquake cluster off Kamaishi, NE Japan over two cycles of M~ 4.9 repeating earthquakes. The M~ 4.9 earthquake sequence is composed of nine events that occurred since 1957 which have a strong periodicity (5.5 ± 0.7 yr) and constant size ( M 4.9 ± 0.2), probably due to stable sliding around the source area (asperity). Using P - and S -wave traveltime differentials estimated from waveform cross-spectra, three M~ 4.9 main shocks and 50 accompanying microearthquakes ( M 1.5–3.6) from 1995 to 2008 were precisely relocated. The source sizes, stress drops and slip amounts for earthquakes of M 2.4 or larger were also estimated from corner frequencies and seismic moments using simultaneous inversion of stacked spectral ratios. Relocation using the double-difference method shows that the slip area of the 2008 M~ 4.9 main shock is co-located with those of the 1995 and 2001 M~ 4.9 main shocks. Four groups of microearthquake clusters are located in and around the mainshock slip areas. Of these, two clusters are located at the deeper and shallower edge of the slip areas and most of these microearthquakes occurred repeatedly in the interseismic period. Two other clusters located near the centre of the mainshock source areas are not as active as the clusters near the edge. The occurrence of these earthquakes is limited to the latter half of the earthquake cycles of the M~ 4.9 main shock. Similar spatial and temporal features of microearthquake occurrence were seen for two other cycles before the 1995 M 5.0 and 1990 M 5.0 main shocks based on group identification by waveform similarities. Stress drops of microearthquakes are 3–11 MPa and are relatively constant within each group during the two earthquake cycles. The 2001 and 2008 M~ 4.9 earthquakes have larger stress drops of 41 and 27 MPa, respectively. These results show that the stress drop is probably determined by the fault properties and does not change much for earthquakes rupturing in the same area. The occurrence of microearthquakes in the interseismic period suggests the intrusion of aseismic slip, causing a loading of these patches. We also found that some earthquakes near the centre of the mainshock source area occurred just after the earthquakes at the deeper edge of the mainshock source area. These seismic activities probably indicate episodic aseismic slip migrating from the deeper regions in the mainshock asperity to its centre during interseismic periods. Comparison of the source parameters for the 2001 and 2008 main shocks shows that the seismic moments (1.04 x 10 16 Nm and 1.12 x 10 16 Nm for the 2008 and 2001 earthquakes, respectively) and source sizes (radius = 570 m and 540 m for the 2008 and 2001 earthquakes, respectively) are comparable. Based on careful phase identification and hypocentre relocation by constraining the hypocentres of other small earthquakes to their precisely located centroids, we found that the hypocentres of the 2001 and 2008 M~ 4.9 events are located in the southeastern part of the mainshock source area. This location does not correspond to either episodic slip area or hypocentres of small earthquakes that occurred during the earthquake cycle.

Kamaishi↗

USGS2011

Deep rock damage in the San Andreas Fault revealed by P- and S-type fault-zone-guided waves

Damage to fault-zone rocks during fault slip results in the formation of a channel of low seismic-wave velocities. Within such channels guided seismic waves, denoted by Fg, can propagate. Here we show with core samples, well logs and Fg-waves that such a channel is crossed by the SAFOD (San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth) borehole at a depth of 2.7 km near Parkfield, California, USA. This laterally extensive channel extends downwards to at least half way through the seismogenic crust, more than about 7 km. The channel supports not only the previously recognized Love-type- (FL) and Rayleigh-type- (FR) guided waves, but also a new fault-guided wave, which we name FF. As recorded 2.7 km underground, FF is normally dispersed, ends in an Airy phase, and arrives between the P- and S-waves. Modelling shows that FF travels as a leaky mode within the core of the fault zone. Combined with the drill core samples, well logs and the two other types of guided waves, FF at SAFOD reveals a zone of profound, deep, rock damage. Originating from damage accumulated over the recent history of fault movement, we suggest it is maintained either by fracturing near the slip surface of earthquakes, such as the 1857 Fort Tejon M 7.9, or is an unexplained part of the fault-creep process known to be active at this site.

California↗

USGS2011

Spatiotemporal earthquake clusters along the North Anatolian fault zone offshore Istanbul

We investigate earthquakes with similar waveforms in order to characterize spatiotemporal microseismicity clusters within the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) in northwest Turkey along the transition between the 1999 İzmit rupture zone and the Marmara Sea seismic gap. Earthquakes within distinct activity clusters are relocated with cross-correlation derived relative travel times using the double-difference method. The spatiotemporal distribution of microearthquakes within individual clusters is resolved with relative location accuracy comparable to or better than the source size. High-precision relative hypocenters define the geometry of individual fault patches, permitting a better understanding of fault kinematics and their role in local-scale seismotectonics along the region of interest. Temporal seismic sequences observed in the eastern Sea of Marmara region suggest progressive failure of mostly nonoverlapping areas on adjacent fault patches and systematic migration of microearthquakes within clusters during the progressive failure of neighboring fault patches. The temporal distributions of magnitudes as well as the number of events follow swarmlike behavior rather than a mainshock/aftershock pattern.

Istanbul↗

USGS2011

Deep scientific drilling in the San Andreas Fault Zone

A deep scientific drilling experiment in San Andreas fault zone would provide data essential to understanding the structure, composition, mechanical behavior, and physical state of an active, major plate-boundary fault. Toward this end, we are working with an international team of scientists and engineers to propose a long-term, integrated program of surface-based geological and geophysical investigations and deep drilling along the San Andreas fault system. Prior to drilling, a suite of comparative geodynamic models will be developed incorporating detailed investigations of geology, crustal structure, geophysical environment, hydrology, seismotectonics, and fault-movement history at each of the candidate sites. These studies will have a major impact on our understanding of the structure and physical properties of the San Andreas fault system and will form a critical framework for applying the knowledge gained in a deep San Andreas borehole to other segments of the fault and other tectonic environments.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2011

Seismologists meet “Down Under”

Planned presentations on hazard assessment and research weren't the only topics for discussion at the 27th General Assembly of the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior (IASPEI), held from January 10–21 at the University of Victoria in Wellington, New Zealand. There was a more timely one unfolding: California's Northridge earthquake. When conference participants awoke to news of the earthquake on January 18, they scrambled to action to gather the latest data available. Just 12 hours after the event, they held a general discussion about the earthquake.

Wellington↗

USGS2009

Passive seismic monitoring of natural and induced earthquakes: Case studies, future directions and socio-economic relevance

An important discovery in crustal mechanics has been that the Earth’s crust is commonly stressed close to failure, even in tectonically quiet areas. As a result, small natural or man-made perturbations to the local stress field may trigger earthquakes. To understand these processes, Passive Seismic Monitoring (PSM) with seismometer arrays is a widely used technique that has been successfully applied to study seismicity at different magnitude levels ranging from acoustic emissions generated in the laboratory under controlled conditions, to seismicity induced by hydraulic stimulations in geological reservoirs, and up to great earthquakes occurring along plate boundaries. In all these environments the appropriate deployment of seismic sensors, i.e., directly on the rock sample, at the earth’s surface or in boreholes close to the seismic sources allows for the detection and location of brittle failure processes at sufficiently low magnitude-detection threshold and with adequate spatial resolution for further analysis. One principal aim is to develop an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring at the seismic source and their relationship to the host geologic environment. In this paper we review selected case studies and future directions of PSM efforts across a wide range of scales and environments. These include induced failure within small rock samples, hydrocarbon reservoirs, and natural seismicity at convergent and transform plate boundaries. Each example represents a milestone with regard to bridging the gap between laboratory-scale experiments under controlled boundary conditions and large-scale field studies. The common motivation for all studies is to refine the understanding of how earthquakes nucleate, how they proceed and how they interact in space and time. This is of special relevance at the larger end of the magnitude scale, i.e., for large devastating earthquakes due to their severe socio-economic impact.

Book chapter↗