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William H. Schulz

Publications and source records attributed to William H. Schulz.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Map depicting locations susceptible to landslide hazards triggered by prolonged intense rainfall, Utuado Municipio, Puerto Rico

Introduction Landslides commonly occur in Puerto Rico during or soon after rainstorms with prolonged intense rainfall. Rainfall-triggered landslides present significant hazards to the built environment and human safety (for example, Jibson, 1986; Larsen and Torres Sanchez, 1992; Bessette-Kirton and others, 2019a). These hazards were illustrated during September 2017 (Hughes and others, 2019) when Hurricane María triggered more than 70,000 landslides across Puerto Rico (fig. 1), causing loss of life and widespread destruction (figs. 2–4). In Utuado Municipio, about 18,000 landslides were observed after Hurricane María (Hughes and others, 2019). Most intense rainfall-triggered landslides in Puerto Rico occur in soil overlying bedrock and travel downslope from where they initiate (for example, Jibson, 1986; Bessette-Kirton and others, 2019a, 2020). Hazards to human life and infrastructure can differ substantially between where landslides initiate and where they travel. At landslide initiation locations, the ground breaks up (fails) as it moves downslope, removing support for buildings, roadways, and other structures located upon the landslides (fig. 3A, B). This ground failure often causes structures to collapse and suffer severe damage or complete destruction, rendering building occupants at extreme risk. Roadways and other vital infrastructure, such as water, power, and communication lines, are often severed. During intense rainfall events, landslide initiation and movement downslope can occur in seconds to hours. Downslope from where they initiate, landslides in Puerto Rico often move very rapidly (faster than a person can walk or run) and can impact and destroy or fill structures with mud and debris (fig. 4) as well as bury roadways (fig. 3A, C). Moving landslides present extreme hazards to human safety; some fatalities during Hurricane María resulted from mud and debris that flowed through windows and doors of a home and buried occupants. Many landslides in Puerto Rico become fast-moving liquefied masses (debris flows), which are especially common in channels where they can quickly travel kilometers downstream. Multiple debris flows may occur in a channel during a single rainstorm (some channels experienced more than 50 debris flows during Hurricane María; Bessette-Kirton and others [2020] ). This hazard map separately depicts locations and the relative likelihood of where landslides may initiate, where they may move downslope, and where channelized debris flows may travel during or soon after intense rainfall like that during Hurricane María. An estimated average of 399 millimeters of rainfall fell across Utuado during September 19–21, 2017 (Ramos-Scharrón and Arima, 2019). Lower rainfall amounts, durations, and intensities also trigger landsliding in Puerto Rico, although landslides and debris flows become more numerous as rainfall intensities, durations, and cumulative amounts increase. The map does not show potential landslide locations in the karst terrain of northern Utuado (Bawiec, 1999) because Hurricane María-induced landslides were very sparse in this region (Hughes and others, 2019; Baxstrom and others, 2021a), even though rainfall amounts were similar to those in other parts of Utuado. Based on data from Hughes and others (2019), landslides were about 10 times more likely to occur outside of the karst terrane than within it, and our preliminary analyses indicated relatively low susceptibility to rainfall-induced landslide hazards within the karst. Landslide-prone soils appear to be poorly developed on the very steep slopes present in the karst region, where weathering by dissolution appears to dominate.

Puerto Rico, Utuado Municipio↗
USGS2026

Map depicting locations susceptible to landslide hazards triggered by prolonged intense rainfall, Naranjito Municipio, Puerto Rico

Introduction Landslides commonly occur in Puerto Rico during or soon after rainstorms with prolonged intense rainfall. Rainfall-triggered landslides present significant hazards to the built environment and human safety (for example, Jibson, 1986; Larsen and Torres Sanchez, 1992; Bessette-Kirton and others, 2019a). These hazards were illustrated during September 2017 (Hughes and others, 2019), when Hurricane María triggered more than 70,000 landslides across Puerto Rico (fig. 1), causing loss of life and widespread destruction (figs. 2–4). In Naranjito Municipio, about 2,000 landslides were observed after Hurricane María (Hughes and others, 2019). Most intense-rainfall-triggered landslides in Puerto Rico occur in soil overlying bedrock and travel downslope from where they initiated (for example, Jibson, 1986; Bessette-Kirton and others, 2019a; 2020). Hazards to human life and infrastructure can differ substantially between where landslides initiate and where they travel. At landslide initiation locations, the ground breaks up (fails) as it moves downslope, removing support for buildings, roadways, and other structures located upon the landslides (figs. 3B, 4A, B). This ground failure often causes structures to collapse and suffer severe damage or complete destruction, rendering building occupants at extreme risk. Roadways and other vital infrastructure, such as water, power, and communication lines are often severed. During intense rainfall events, landslide initiation and movement downslope can occur in seconds to hours. Downslope from where they initiate, landslides in Puerto Rico often move, or runout, very rapidly (faster than a person can walk or run) and can impact and destroy or fill structures with mud and debris (figs. 3A, 4A, C) as well as bury roadways (fig. 4A). Moving landslides present extreme hazards to human safety; some fatalities during Hurricane María resulted from mud and debris that flowed through windows and doors of a home and buried occupants. Many landslides in Puerto Rico become fast-moving debris flows, which are especially common in channels where they can quickly travel kilometers downstream. Multiple debris flows may occur in a channel during a single rainstorm (some channels experienced more than 50 debris flows during Hurricane María; Bessette-Kirton and others, 2020). This map separately depicts locations and the relative likelihood of where landslides may initiate, where they may move downslope, and where channelized debris flows may travel during or soon after intense rainfall like that during Hurricane María. An estimated average of 529 millimeters of rainfall fell across Naranjito during September 19–21, 2017 (Ramos-Scharrón and Arima, 2019). Lower rainfall amounts, durations, and intensities also trigger landsliding in Puerto Rico, although landslides and debris flows become more numerous as rainfall intensities, durations, and cumulative amounts increase.

Naranjito Municipio, Puerto Rico↗
USGS2026

Map depicting locations susceptible to landslide hazards triggered by prolonged intense rainfall, Lares Municipio, Puerto Rico

Introduction Landslides commonly occur in Puerto Rico during or soon after rainstorms with prolonged intense rainfall. Rainfall-triggered landslides present significant hazards to the built environment and human safety (for example, Jibson, 1986; Larsen and Torres Sanchez, 1992; Bessette-Kirton and others, 2019a). These hazards were illustrated during September 2017 (Hughes and others, 2019), when Hurricane María triggered more than 70,000 landslides across Puerto Rico (fig. 1), causing loss of life and widespread destruction (figs. 2 and 3). In Lares Municipio, about 3,500 landslides were observed after Hurricane María (Hughes and others, 2019). Most intense-rainfall-triggered landslides in Puerto Rico occur in soil overlying bedrock and travel downslope from where they initiated (for example, Jibson, 1986; Bessette-Kirton and others, 2019a; 2020). Hazards to human life and infrastructure can differ substantially between where landslides initiate and where they travel. At landslide initiation locations, the ground breaks up (fails) as it moves downslope, removing support for buildings, roadways, and other structures located upon the landslides (figs. 2, 3A, B). This ground failure often causes structures to collapse and suffer severe damage or complete destruction, rendering building occupants at extreme risk. Roadways and other vital infrastructure, such as water, power, and communication lines are often severed. During intense rainfall events, landslide initiation and movement downslope can occur in seconds to hours. Downslope from where they initiate, landslides in Puerto Rico often move, or runout, very rapidly (faster than a person can walk or run) and can impact and destroy or fill structures with mud and debris (figs. 3A, C) as well as bury roadways (fig. 3A). Moving landslides present extreme hazards to human safety; some fatalities during Hurricane María resulted from mud and debris that flowed through windows and doors of a home and buried occupants. Many landslides in Puerto Rico become fast-moving debris flows, which are especially common in channels where they can quickly travel kilometers downstream. Multiple debris flows may occur in a channel during a single rainstorm (some channels experienced more than 50 debris flows during Hurricane María; Bessette-Kirton and others, 2020). This map separately depicts locations and the relative likelihood of where landslides may initiate, where they may move downslope, and where channelized debris flows may travel during or soon after intense rainfall like that during Hurricane María. An estimated average of 256 millimeters of rainfall fell across Lares during September 19–21, 2017 (Ramos-Scharrón and Arima, 2019). Lower rainfall amounts, durations, and intensities also trigger landsliding in Puerto Rico, although landslides and debris flows become more numerous as rainfall intensities, durations, and cumulative amounts increase. The map does not show potential landslide locations in the karst terrain of northern Lares (Bawiec, 1999) because Hurricane María-induced landslides were very sparse in this region (Hughes and others, 2019; Baxstrom and others, 2021a), even though rainfall amounts were similar to those in other parts of Lares. Based on data from Hughes and others (2019), landslides were about ten times more likely to occur outside of the karst terrane than within it, and our preliminary analyses indicate relatively low susceptibility to rainfall-induced landslide hazards within the karst. Landslide-prone soils appear to be poorly developed on the very steep slopes present in the karst region, where weathering by dissolution appears to dominate.

Lares Municipio, Puerto Rico↗
USGS2026

Impacts of transient critical zone evolution on landslide susceptibility and hazard Across the Utuado batholith, Puerto Rico

Landscapes in humid climates often experience rapid chemical and mechanical weathering that can change groundwater fluxes, drainage pathways, and frictional strength via alterations in subsurface mineral composition and matrix porosity. These changes to hillslope critical zone structure and strength should control landslide susceptibility, size, and failure style. Here we test the impact of differential weathering on landslide failure processes by exploiting a natural experiment along the dioritic Utuado batholith in Puerto Rico's Cordillera Central, where a sharp weathering gradient follows an upstream-propagating knickzone into an uplifted shoreline platform that was affected by Hurricane Maria in 2017. Through a combination of landslide mapping, field geophysical and geotechnical surveys, topographic analysis, calibrated stream profile inversion, 3D back-analysis of hillslope strength, and debris-flow inundation assessments, we show that differential weathering induces changes to critical zone structure and consequently landslide susceptibility and hazard. Our mapping reveals that the hurricane-induced landslides preferentially cluster along less weathered hillslopes despite a marked increase in frictional strength. Jointly inverted seismic refraction and electrical resistivity profiles show that the frictionally weak, heavily weathered hillslopes are highly porous and dry, which we posit acts to stabilize slopes through limiting deeper hydrologic connectivity that can produce shallow water tables with destabilizing lateral seepage forces during storms. Debris-flow inundation mapping and analysis reveals that major contributors to debris-flow growth, channel steepness and landslide coalescence, scale linearly with hillslope friction angle. This leads to higher-mobility debris flows along knickzone reaches, which disproportionately affects communities at the base of the plateau.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2025

Anomalous shear stress variation in wet granular medium: Implications for landslide lateral faults

Landslide assessments typically focus on the mechanical properties of the basal shear zone, but lateral faults are frequently overlooked, possibly due to their lower normal stresses and variably saturated conditions. Using double-cylinder shear experiments on wet granular systems as analogs for landslide lateral faults, we observe anomalous shear stress variations with fluid volume fractions, defying an expected unimodal relationship associated with capillary cohesion. At low fluid volume fractions, shear strength weakens as the wet grain assembly experiences reduced lateral pressure and increased boundary slip. This boundary slip subsequently vanishes, with an abrupt strengthening due to the dilation of the grain assembly against fluid surface tension as saturation approaches. Strike-slip motion and confinement in this system explain the strength anomaly, highlighting a critical role of lateral faults in landslide stability, particularly in cases where dynamics cannot be adequately explained by monitored pore-water pressure or basal friction.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2025

Shear surface undulations modulate clayey gouge strength and contribute to divergent landslide acceleration

Landslides display a spectrum of speeds for incompletely known reasons. Sliding occurs along slickensided undulatory shear surfaces within boundary shear gouge. Laboratory tests reveal that gouge shear strength generally decreases with finite cumulative displacement during relatively rapid failure and may increase or decrease with increasing shear rate; these behaviors can result in accelerating or decelerating landslide motion, which significantly affects consequent hazards. However, mechanisms responsible for such behaviors are poorly understood. We performed advanced ring shear strength testing that revealed such variable strength of a landslide near Oso, Washington, USA. We hypothesized that millimeter-scale undulations along shear surfaces caused the strength variability by imparting shear strength but while also modifying stresses that locally increase and decrease the typically considered particle-scale shear strength. We tested our hypotheses in the laboratory and with finite element soil deformation modeling. Lab results suggest that undulations contribute strength that decays with finite cumulative displacement. Modeling similarly reveals this, and that rapid shearing across undulations locally reduces effective normal stress by persistently elevating pore-water pressure and causing dilation. Consequent effects on strength differ by material with granular-rich, high-friction gouge losing strength and clay-rich, low-friction gouge losing little or gaining strength as shear rates increase. Ample testing by others reveals similar patterns. Hence, the propensity for gouge-controlled accelerating or decelerating failure may be estimated from simple index tests. Our findings on the effects of undulations reveal previously unknown mechanisms that may help to explain why some landslides reactivate catastrophically while others do not.

Washington↗
USGS2024

Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria induced about 70 000 landslides throughout Puerto Rico, USA, including thousands each in three municipalities situated in Puerto Rico's rugged Cordillera Central range. By combining a nonlinear soil-depth model, presumed wettest-case pore pressures, and quasi-three-dimensional (3D) slope-stability analysis, we developed a landslide susceptibility map that has very good performance and continuous susceptibility zones having smooth, buffered boundaries. Our landslide susceptibility map enables assessment of potential ground-failure locations and their use as landslide sources in a companion assessment of inundation and debris-flow runout. The quasi-3D factor of safety, F 3 , showed strong inverse correlation to landslide density (high density at low F 3 ). Area under the curve (AUC) of true positive rate (TPR) versus false positive rate (FPR) indicated success of F 3 in identifying head-scarp points (AUC = 0.84) and source-area polygons (0.85 ≤ AUC ≤ 0.88). The susceptibility zones enclose specific percentages of observed landslides. Thus, zone boundaries use successive F 3 levels for increasing TPR of landslide head-scarp points, with zones bounded by F 3 at TPR = 0.75, very high; F 3 at TPR = 0.90, high; and the remainder moderate to low. The very high susceptibility zone, with 118 landslides km −2 , covered 23 % of the three municipalities. The high zone (51 landslides km −2 ) covered another 10 %.

Puerto Rice↗
USGS2022

Landslides triggered by the 2002 M 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake, Alaska, USA

The 2002 M 7.9 Denali earthquake in Alaska, USA, was the largest inland earthquake in North America in nearly 150 years. The earthquake involved oblique thrusting but mostly strike-slip motion, and faults ruptured the ground surface over 330 km. Fault rupture occurred in a rugged, mountainous, subarctic environment with extensive permafrost and variable glaciation, geology, and groundwater presence, and many triggered landslides mobilized into avalanches that traversed varied physiographic settings, some moving farther than 11 km. However, only several thousand landslides were triggered, and these occurred in a narrow zone along the fault rupture. These characteristics of the event provide ample opportunities to improve understanding of controls on coseismic landsliding and avalanching mechanisms. The paucity and limited extent of landslides likely resulted from high directivity of seismic energy and relatively low levels of high-amplitude, high-frequency ground motion; glacial damping of seismic energy was likely not a factor. Landslides preferentially occurred on hillslopes steeper and higher than average. Meteorological conditions were near historical averages at the time of the event, although the region has experienced gradual warming historically that appears to have resulted in increased landslide occurrence in other parts of Alaska during recent years. Inherent susceptibility of geological formations to landsliding was not apparent with the available data, although discontinuities created dip-slope conditions for the five largest slides. Historical thinning of glaciers and consequent slope debuttressing may have been a factor in aiding occurrence of some of the earthquake-induced landslides, particularly some of the largest. Mobility of the largest avalanches was above average compared to global data, and mobility of all sizes of avalanches was apparently aided by movement over glacial ice. Avalanche deposits displayed characteristics indicative of turbulent flow on steeper slopes and laminar plug flow in flatter areas, where sliding also likely occurred.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Geologic controls of slow-moving landslides near the U.S. West Coast

Slow-moving landslides, often with nearly imperceptible creeping motion, are an important landscape shaper and a dangerous natural hazard across the globe, yet their spatial distribution and geologic controls are still poorly known owing to a paucity of detailed, large-area observations. Here, we use interferometry of L-band satellite radar images to reveal 617 spatially large (4 × "> × 10 4 – 13 × "> × 10 6 m 2 ) and presently active (2007 – 2019) slow-moving landslides near the populous US West Coast (only 4.6% of these slides were previously known) and provide evidence for their fundamental controls by bedrock lithology and vertical land motion. We found that slow-moving landslides are generally larger and more spatially frequent in homogeneous bedrock with low rock strength, and they are preferentially located on hillslopes with geologically recent uplift. Notably, landslide size and spatial density in the relatively weak metamorphic rocks and mélange (due to pervasive tectonically sheared discontinuities, foliation, and abundant clay minerals) were two times larger than those in sedimentary and igneous rocks, and the hillslopes with landslides were found to be uplifting approximately three times faster than the average for the whole region. These results suggest that slow-moving landslides can be effectively uncovered by satellite radar imagery and their occurrence and character may be anticipated from vertical land uplift and bedrock lithology. Hence, our study provides understanding critical for reducing landslide hazards and quantifying landslide impacts on landscape change.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2021

When hazard avoidance is not an option: Lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide, USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

Washington↗
USGS2021

High-resolution soil-moisture maps over landslide regions in northern California grassland derived From SAR backscattering coefficients

Slow-moving landslides are destabilized by accumulated precipitation and consequent soil moisture. Yet, the continuous high-resolution soil-moisture measurements needed to aid the understanding of landslide processes are generally absent in steep terrain. Here, we produce soil-moisture time-series maps for a seasonally active grassland landslide in the northern California coast ranges, USA, using backscattering coefficients from NASA's uninhabited aerial vehicle synthetic aperture radar at 6-m resolution. A physically based radar scattering model is used to retrieve the near-surface (5-cm depth) soil moisture for the landslide. Both forward modeling (backscattering estimation) and the retrieval (soil-moisture validation) show good agreement. The root-mean-square errors (RMSE) for vertical transmit vertical receive (VV) and horizontal transmit horizontal receive (HH) polarizations in forward model comparison are 1.93 dB and 1.88 dB, respectively. The soil-moisture retrieval shows unbiased RMSE of 0.054 m 3 /m 3 . Our successful retrieval benefits from the surface and double-bounce scattering, which is common in grasslands. The retrieved maps show saturated wetness conditions within the active landslide boundaries. We also performed sensitivity tests for incidence angle and found that the retrieval is weakly dependent on the angle, especially while using copolarized HH and VV together. Using the two copolarized inputs, the retrieval is also not sensitive to the change of orientation angles of grass cylinders. The physical model inversion presented here can be generally applied for soil-moisture retrieval in areas with the same vegetation cover types in California.

California↗
USGS2020

Twelve-year dynamics and rainfall thresholds for alternating creep and rapid movement of the Hooskanaden landslide from integrating InSAR, pixel offset tracking, and borehole and hydrological measurements

The Hooskanaden landslide is a large (~600 m wide × 1,300 m long), deep (~30 – 45 m) slide located in southwestern Oregon. Since 1958, it has had five moderate/major movements that catastrophically damaged the intersecting U.S. Highway 101, along with persistent slow wet‐season movements and a long‐term accelerating trend due to coastal erosion. Multiple remote sensing approaches, borehole measurements, and hydrological observations have been integrated to interpret the motion behaviors of the slide. Pixel offset tracking of both Sentinel‐1 and Sentinel‐2 images was carried out to reconstruct the 3‐D displacement field of the 2019 major event, and the results agree well with field measurements. A 12‐year displacement history of the landslide from 2007 to 2019 has been retrieved by incorporating offsets from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) digital elevation model (DEM) gradients and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) processing of ALOS and Sentinel‐1 images. Comparisons with daily/hourly ground precipitation reveal that the motion dynamics are predominantly controlled by intensity and temporal pattern of rainfall. A new empirical threefold rainfall threshold was therefore proposed to forecast the dates for the moderate/major movements. This threshold relies upon antecedent water‐year and previous 3‐day and daily precipitation and was able to represent observed movement periods well. Adaptation of our threshold methodology could prove useful for other large, deep landslides for which temporal forecasting has long been generally intractable. The averaged characteristic hydraulic conductivity and diffusivity were estimated as 6.6 × 10 −6 m/s and 6.6 × 10 −4 m 2 /s, respectively, based on the time lags between rainfall pulses and slide accelerations. Hydrologic modeling using these parameters helps to explain the ability of the new rainfall threshold.

Oregon↗
USGS2020

Mobility characteristics of landslides triggered by Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Mobility is an important element of landslide hazard and risk assessments yet has been seldom studied for shallow landslides and debris flows in tropical environments. In September 2017, Hurricane Maria triggered > 70,000 landslides across Puerto Rico. Using aerial imagery and a lidar digital elevation model (DEM), we mapped and characterized the mobility of debris slides and flows in four different geologic materials: (1) mudstone, siltstone, and sandstone; (2) submarine basalt and chert; (3) marine volcaniclastics; and (4) granodiorite. We used the ratio of landslide-fall height (H) to travel length (L), H/L, to assess the mobility of landslides in each material. Additionally, we differentiated between landslides with single and multiple source areas and landslides that either did or did not enter drainages. Overall, extreme rainfall contributed to the mobility of landslides during Hurricane Maria, and our results showed that the mobility of debris slides and flows in Puerto Rico increased linearly as a function of the number of source areas that coalesced. Additionally, landslides that entered drainages were more mobile than those that did not. We found that landslides in soils developed on marine volcaniclastics were the most mobile and landslides in soils on submarine basalt and chert were the least mobile. While landslides were generally small (< 100 m 2 ) and displayed a wide range of H/L values (0.1–2), coalescence increased the mobility of landslides that transitioned to debris flows. The high but variable mobility of landslides that occurred during Hurricane Maria and the associated hazards highlight the importance of characterizing and understanding the factors influencing landslide mobility in Puerto Rico and other tropical environments.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2020

Four-dimensional surface motions of the Slumgullion landslide and quantification of hydrometeorological forcing

Landslides modify the natural landscape and cause fatalities and property damage worldwide. Quantifying landslide dynamics is challenging due to the stochastic nature of the environment. With its large area of ~1 km 2 and perennial motions at ~10–20 mm per day, the Slumgullion landslide in Colorado, USA, represents an ideal natural laboratory to better understand landslide behavior. Here, we use hybrid remote sensing data and methods to recover the four-dimensional surface motions during 2011–2018. We refine the boundaries of an area of ~0.35 km 2 below the crest of the prehistoric landslide. We construct a mechanical framework to quantify the rheology, subsurface channel geometry, mass flow rate, and spatiotemporally dependent pore-water pressure feedback through a joint analysis of displacement and hydrometeorological measurements from ground, air and space. Our study demonstrates the importance of remotely characterizing often inaccessible, dangerous slopes to better understand landslides and other quasi-static mass fluxes in natural and industrial environments, which will ultimately help reduce associated hazards.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Map depicting susceptibility to landslides triggered by intense rainfall, Puerto Rico

Landslides in Puerto Rico range from nuisances to deadly events. Centuries of agricultural and urban modification of the landscape have perturbed many already unstable hillsides on the tropical island. One of the main triggers of mass wasting on the island is the high-intensity rainfall that is associated with tropical atmospheric systems. Puerto Rico’s geographic position and rugged topography render millions of residents vulnerable to widespread landslide events. In this study, a high-resolution (5 meters), high-intensity rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility model was produced using the frequency-ratio method. Datasets utilized in the model included a complete-island landslide inventory created from imagery obtained after Hurricanes Irma and María impacted the island during September 2017, slope inclination, land-surface curvature, soil type, geologic terrane, mean annual precipitation, land use, soil moisture, and distance to roadways and streams. The final data product (plate 1) is a statistically viable representation of where landslides are likely to initiate during or soon after intense rainfall, with a robust receiver operating characteristic area-under-curve value of 0.87. The model output raster pixel values were binned into 100 equal-area quantiles and then classified into Low, Moderate, High, Very High, and Extremely High classes of susceptibility. The Extremely High susceptibility classification represents the most vulnerable 1 percent of the island, whereas Very High, High, Moderate, and Low classifications cover 9, 20, 30, and 40 percent of the island, respectively. The susceptibility map is intended to assist in planning future development, mitigation measures, and post-event emergency response; however, it is not a substitute for site-specific, slope-stability assessments performed by licensed geologists and engineers. Additionally, the map does not portray locations where landslide material may travel after mobilization, and which may be at extreme risk; nor does it necessarily portray where landslides may occur during earthquakes or mass wasting triggered by prolonged, relatively low-intensity rainfall.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2020

Using a dense seismic array to determine structure and site effects of the Two Towers earthflow in northern California

We deployed a network of 68 three-component geophones on the slow moving Two Towers earthflow in northern California. We compute horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) from the ambient seismic field. The HVSRs have two prominent peaks, one near 1.23 Hz and another between 4 and 8 Hz at most stations. The 1.23 Hz resonance is a property of the background noise field and may be due to a velocity contrast at a few hundred meters depth. We interpret the higher frequency peaks as being related to slide deposits and invert the spectral ratios for shallow velocity structure using in situ thickness measurements as a priori constraints on the inversion. The thickness of the shallowest, low-velocity layer is systematically larger than landslide thicknesses inferred from inclinometer data acquired since 2013. Given constraints from field observations and boreholes, the inversion may reflect the thickness of deposits of an older slide that is larger in spatial extent and depth than the currently active slide. Because the HVSR peaks measured at Two Towers are caused by shallow slide deposits and represent frequencies that will experience amplification during earthquakes, the depth of the actively sliding mass may be less relevant for assessing potential slide volume and associated hazard than the thicknesses determined by our inversions. More generally, our results underscore the utility of combining both geotechnical measurements and subsurface imaging for landslide characterization and hazard assessment.

California↗
USGS2019

Widespread initiation, reactivation, and acceleration of landslides in the northern California Coast Ranges due to extreme rainfall

Episodically to continuously active slow-moving landslides are driven by precipitation. Climate change, which is altering both the frequency and magnitude of precipitation world21 wide, is therefore predicted to have a major impact on landslides. Here we examine the behavior of hundreds of slow-moving landslides in northern California in response to large changes in annual precipitation that occurred between 2016 and 2018. We quantify the landslide displacement using repeat-pass radar interferometry and pixel offset tracking techniques on a novel dataset from the airborne NASA/JPL Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar. We found that 312 landslides were moving due to extreme rainfall during 2017, compared to 119 during 2016, which was the final year of a historic multi-year drought. However, with a return to below average rainfall in 2018, only 146 landslides remained in motion. The increased number of landslides during 2017 was primarily accommodated by landslides that were smaller than the landslides that remained active between 2016 and 2018. Furthermore, by examining a subset of 51 landslides, we found that 49 had increased velocities during 2017 when compared to 2016. Our results show that slow-moving landslides are sensitive to large changes in annual precipitation, particularly the smaller and thinner landslides that likely experience larger basal pore water pressure changes. Based on climate model predictions for the next century in California, which include increases in annual precipitation and increases in the frequency of dry-to-wet extremes, we hypothesize that there will be an overall increase in landslide activity.

California↗