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Wendy McCausland

Publications and source records attributed to Wendy McCausland.

8 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2020

Capturing, preserving and digitizing legacy seismic data from the Montserrat Volcano Observatory analog seismic network, July 1995 – December 2004

An eruption of the Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV) on the eastern Caribbean island of Montserrat began on 18 July 1995 and continued until February 2010. Within nine days of the eruption onset, an existing four‐station analog seismic network (ASN) was expanded to 10 sites. Telemetered data from this network were recorded, processed, and archived locally using a system developed by scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP). In October 1996, a digital seismic network (DSN) was deployed with the ability to capture larger amplitude signals across a broader frequency range. These two networks operated in parallel until December 2004, with separate telemetry and acquisition systems (analysis systems were merged in March 2001). Although the DSN provided better quality data for research, the ASN featured superior real‐time monitoring tools and captured valuable data including the only seismic data from the first 15 months of the eruption. These successes of the ASN have been rather overlooked. This article documents the evolution of the ASN, the VDAP system, the original data captured, and the recovery and conversion of more than 230,000 seismic events from legacy SUDS, Hypo71, and Seislog formats into Seisan database with waveform data in miniSEED format. No digital catalog existed for these events, but students at the University of South Florida have classified two-thirds of the 40,000 events that were captured between July 1995 and October 1996. Locations and magnitudes were recovered for ~10,000 of these events. Real-time seismic amplitude measurement, seismic spectral amplitude measurement, and tiltmeter data were also captured. The result is that the ASN seismic dataset is now more discoverable, accessible, and reusable, in accordance with FAIR data principles. These efforts could catalyze new research on the 1995–2010 SHV eruption. Furthermore, many observatories have data in these same legacy data formats and might benefit from procedures and codes documented here.

Soufrière Hills Volcano↗
USGS2016

Volcano-tectonic earthquakes: A new tool for estimating intrusive volumes and forecasting eruptions

We present data on 136 high-frequency earthquakes and swarms, termed volcano-tectonic (VT) seismicity, which preceded 111 eruptions at 83 volcanoes, plus data on VT swarms that preceded intrusions at 21 other volcanoes. We find that VT seismicity is usually the earliest reported seismic precursor for eruptions at volcanoes that have been dormant for decades or more, and precedes eruptions of all magma types from basaltic to rhyolitic and all explosivities from VEI 0 to ultraplinian VEI 6 at such previously long-dormant volcanoes. Because large eruptions occur most commonly during resumption of activity at long-dormant volcanoes, VT seismicity is an important precursor for the Earth's most dangerous eruptions. VT seismicity precedes all explosive eruptions of VEI ≥ 5 and most if not all VEI 4 eruptions in our data set. Surprisingly we find that the VT seismicity originates at distal locations on tectonic fault structures at distances of one or two to tens of kilometers laterally from the site of the eventual eruption, and rarely if ever starts beneath the eruption site itself. The distal VT swarms generally occur at depths almost equal to the horizontal distance of the swarm from the summit out to about 15 km distance, beyond which hypocenter depths level out. We summarize several important characteristics of this distal VT seismicity including: swarm-like nature, onset days to years prior to the beginning of magmatic eruptions, peaking of activity at the time of the initial eruption whether phreatic or magmatic, and large non-double couple component to focal mechanisms. Most importantly we show that the intruded magma volume can be simply estimated from the cumulative seismic moment of the VT seismicity from: Log10 V = 0.77 Log ΣMoment − 5.32, with volume, V, in cubic meters and seismic moment in Newton meters. Because the cumulative seismic moment can be approximated from the size of just the few largest events, and is quite insensitive to precise locations, the intruded magma volume can be quickly and easily estimated with few short-period seismic stations. Notable cases in which distal VT events preceded eruptions at long-dormant volcanoes include: Nevado del Ruiz (1984–1985), Pinatubo (1991), Unzen (1989–1995), Soufriere Hills (1995), Shishaldin (1989–1999), Tacana' (1985–1986), Pacaya (1980–1984), Rabaul (1994), and Cotopaxi (2001). Additional cases are recognized at frequently active volcanoes including Popocateptl (2001–2003) and Mauna Loa (1984). We present four case studies (Pinatubo, Soufriere Hills, Unzen, and Tacana') in which we demonstrate the above mentioned VT characteristics prior to eruptions. Using regional data recorded by NEIC, we recognized in near-real time that a huge distal VT swarm was occurring, deduced that a proportionately huge magmatic intrusion was taking place beneath the long dormant Sulu Range, New Britain Island, Papua New Guinea, that it was likely to lead to eruptive activity, and warned Rabaul Volcano Observatory days before a phreatic eruption occurred. This confirms the value of this technique for eruption forecasting. We also present a counter-example where we deduced that a VT swarm at Volcan Cosiguina, Nicaragua, indicated a small intrusion, insufficient to reach the surface and erupt. Finally, we discuss limitations of the method and propose a mechanism by which this distal VT seismicity is triggered by magmatic intrusion.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2015

Stress and mass changes at a “wet” volcano: Example during the 2011–2012 volcanic unrest at Kawah Ijen volcano (Indonesia)

Since 2010, Kawah Ijen volcano has been equipped with seismometers, and its extremely acid volcanic lake has been monitored using temperature and leveling sensors, providing unprecedented time resolution of multiparametric data for an acidic volcanic lake. The nature of stress and mass changes of the volcano is studied by combining seismic analyses and volcanic lake measurements that were made during the strongest unrest ever recorded by the seismic network at Kawah Ijen. The distal VT earthquake swarm that occurred in May 2011 was the precursor of volcanic unrest in October 2011 that caused an increase in shallow earthquakes. The proximal VT earthquakes opened pathways for fluids to ascend by increasing the permeability of the rock matrix. The following months were characterized by two periods of strong heat and mass discharge into the lake and by the initiation of monochromatic tremor (MT) activity when steam/gases interacted with shallow portions of the aquifer. Significant seismic velocity variations, concurrent with water level rises in which water contained a large amount of steam/gas, were associated with the crises, that caused an although the unrest did not affect the shallow hydrothermal system at a large scale. Whereas shallow VT earthquakes likely reflect a magmatic intrusion, MT and relative seismic velocity changes are clearly associated with shallow hydrothermal processes. These results will facilitate the forecast of future crises.

Kawah Ijen↗
USGS2015

Kawah Ijen volcanic activity: A review

Kawah Ijen is a composite volcano located at the easternmost part of Java island in Indonesia and hosts the largest natural acidic lake in the world. We have gathered all available historical reports on Kawah Ijen’s activity since 1770 with the purpose of reviewing the temporal evolution of its activity. Most of these observations and studies have been conducted from a geochemical perspective and in punctuated scientific campaigns. Starting in 1991, the seismic activity and a set of volcanic lake parameters began to be weekly available. We present a database of those measurements that, combined with historical reports, allow us to review each eruption/unrest that occurred during the last two centuries. As of 2010, the volcanic activity is monitored by a new multi-disciplinary network, including digital seismic stations, and lake level and temperature measurements. This detailed monitoring provides an opportunity for better classifying seismic events and forecasting volcanic unrest at Kawah Ijen, but only with the understanding of the characteristics of this volcanic system gained from the historical review presented here.

Kawah Ijen↗
USGS2015

Magma extrusion during the Ubinas 2013–2014 eruptive crisis based on satellite thermal imaging (MIROVA) and ground-based monitoring

After 3 years of mild gases emissions, the Ubinas volcano entered in a new eruptive phase on September 2nd, 2013. The MIROVA system (a space-based volcanic hot-spot detection system), allowed us to detect in near real time the thermal emissions associated with the eruption and provided early evidence of magma extrusion within the deep summit crater. By combining IR data with plume height, sulfur emissions, hot spring temperatures and seismic activity, we interpret the thermal output detected over Ubinas in terms of extrusion rates associated to the eruption. We suggest that the 2013–2014 eruptive crisis can be subdivided into three main phases: ( i ) shallow magma intrusion inside the edifice, (ii) extrusion and growing of a lava plug at the bottom of the summit crater coupled with increasing explosive activity and finally, (iii) disruption of the lava plug and gradual decline of the explosive activity. The occurrence of the 8.2 Mw Iquique (Chile) earthquake (365 km away from Ubinas) on April 1st, 2014, may have perturbed most of the analyzed parameters, suggesting a prompt interaction with the ongoing volcanic activity. In particular, the analysis of thermal and seismic datasets shows that the earthquake may have promoted the most intense thermal and explosive phase that culminated in a major explosion on April 19th, 2014. These results reveal the efficiency of space-based thermal observations in detecting the extrusion of hot magma within deep volcanic craters and in tracking its evolution. We emphasize that, in combination with other geophysical and geochemical datasets, MIROVA is an essential tool for monitoring remote volcanoes with rather difficult accessibility, like those of the Andes that reach remarkably high altitudes.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2013

Re‐estimated effects of deep episodic slip on the occurrence and probability of great earthquakes in Cascadia

Mazzotti and Adams (2004) estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern Washington and southern British Columbia increases the probability of a great Cascadia earthquake by 30–100 times relative to the probability during the ∼58 weeks between slip events. Because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at ∼0.03% per week, their conclusion is that though it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur during a rapid slip event than during other times, a great earthquake is unlikely to occur during any particular rapid slip event. This previous estimate used a failure model in which great earthquakes initiate instantaneously at a stress threshold. We refine the estimate, assuming a delayed failure model that is based on laboratory‐observed earthquake initiation. Laboratory tests show that failure of intact rock in shear and the onset of rapid slip on pre‐existing faults do not occur at a threshold stress. Instead, slip onset is gradual and shows a damped response to stress and loading rate changes. The characteristic time of failure depends on loading rate and effective normal stress. Using this model, the probability enhancement during the period of rapid slip in Cascadia is negligible (<10%) for effective normal stresses of 10 MPa or more and only increases by 1.5 times for an effective normal stress of 1 MPa. We present arguments that the hypocentral effective normal stress exceeds 1 MPa. In addition, the probability enhancement due to rapid slip extends into the interevent period. With this delayed failure model for effective normal stresses greater than or equal to 50 kPa, it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur between the periods of rapid deep slip than during them. Our conclusion is that great earthquake occurrence is not significantly enhanced by episodic deep slip events.

British Columbia, Washington↗
USGS2012

Recent explosive eruptions and volcano hazards at Soputan volcano—a basalt stratovolcano in north Sulawesi, Indonesia

Soputan is a high-alumina basalt stratovolcano located in the active North Sulawesi-Sangihe Islands magmatic arc. Although immediately adjacent to the still geothermally active Quaternary Tondono Caldera, Soputan’s magmas are geochemically distinct from those of the caldera and from other magmas in the arc. Unusual for a basalt volcano, Soputan produces summit lava domes and explosive eruptions with high-altitude ash plumes and pyroclastic flows—eight explosive eruptions during the period 2003–2011. Our field observations, remote sensing, gas emission, seismic, and petrologic analyses indicate that Soputan is an open-vent-type volcano that taps basalt magma derived from the arc-mantle wedge, accumulated and fractionated in a deep-crustal reservoir and transported slowly or staged at shallow levels prior to eruption. A combination of high phenocryst content, extensive microlite crystallization and separation of a gas phase at shallow levels results in a highly viscous basalt magma and explosive eruptive style. The open-vent structure and frequent eruptions indicate that Soputan will likely erupt again in the next decade, perhaps repeatedly. Explosive eruptions in the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) 2–3 range and lava dome growth are most probable, with a small chance of larger VEI 4 eruptions. A rapid ramp up in seismicity preceding the recent eruptions suggests that future eruptions may have no more than a few days of seismic warning. Risk to population in the region is currently greatest for villages located on the southern and western flanks of the volcano where flow deposits are directed by topography. In addition, Soputan’s explosive eruptions produce high-altitude ash clouds that pose a risk to air traffic in the region.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗