Wells Hively | Geology Reports

USGS2018

Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO 2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO 2 , precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO 2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO 2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of ∼ 70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO 2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha −1 in nitrate yield relative to the watershed with a lower percent of croplands as a result of increased export of nitrate derived from fertilizer. The watershed dominated by poorly drained soils showed increased nitrate removal due do enhanced denitrification compared to the watershed dominated by well-drained soils. Our findings suggest that increased implementation of conservation practices would be necessary for this region to mitigate increased nitrate loads associated with predicted changes in future climate.

Greensboro Watershed, Tuckahoe Creek Watershed↗

USGS2015

Remote sensing to monitor cover crop adoption in southeastern Pennsylvania

In the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, winter cereal cover crops are often planted in rotation with summer crops to reduce the loss of nutrients and sediment from agricultural systems. Cover crops can also improve soil health, control weeds and pests, supplement forage needs, and support resilient cropping systems. In southeastern Pennsylvania, cover crops can be successfully established following corn (Zea mays L.) silage harvest and are strongly promoted for use in this niche. They are also planted following corn grain, soybean (Glycine max L.), and vegetable harvest. In Pennsylvania, the use of winter cover crops for agricultural conservation has been supported through a combination of outreach, regulation, and incentives. On-farm implementation is thought to be increasing, but the actual extent of cover crops is not well quantified. Satellite imagery can be used to map green winter cover crop vegetation on agricultural fields and, when integrated with additional remote sensing data products, can be used to evaluate wintertime vegetative groundcover following specific summer crops. This study used Landsat and SPOT (System Probatoire d’ Observation de la Terre) satellite imagery, in combination with the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Cropland Data Layer, to evaluate the extent and amount of green wintertime vegetation on agricultural fields in four Pennsylvania counties (Berks, Lebanon, Lancaster, and York) from 2010 to 2013. In December of 2010, a windshield survey was conducted to collect baseline data on winter cover crop implementation, with particular focus on identifying corn harvested for silage (expected earlier harvest date and lower levels of crop residue), versus for grain (expected later harvest date and higher levels of crop residue). Satellite spectral indices were successfully used to detect both the amount of green vegetative groundcover and the amount of crop residue on the surveyed fields. Analysis of wintertime satellite imagery showed consistent increases in vegetative groundcover over the four-year study period and determined that trends did not result from annual weather variability, indicating that farmers are increasing adoption of practices such as cover cropping that promote wintertime vegetation. Between 2010 and 2013, the occurrence of wintertime vegetation on agricultural fields increased from 36% to 67% of corn fields in Berks County, from 53% to 75% in Lancaster County, from 42% to 65% in Lebanon County, and from 26% to 52% in York County. Apparently, efforts to promote cover crop use in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed have coincided with a rapid increase in the occurrence of wintertime vegetation following corn harvest in southeastern Pennsylvania. However, despite these increases, between 25% and 48% of corn fields remained without substantial green vegetation over the wintertime, indicating further opportunity for cover crop adoption.

Pennsylvania↗