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Wayne Thatcher

Publications and source records attributed to Wayne Thatcher.

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Geodesy- and geology-based slip-rate models for the Western United States (excluding California) national seismic hazard maps

The 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the conterminous United States incorporate additional uncertainty in fault slip-rate parameter that controls the earthquake-activity rates than was applied in previous versions of the hazard maps. This additional uncertainty is accounted for by new geodesy- and geology-based slip-rate models for the Western United States. Models that were considered include an updated geologic model based on expert opinion and four combined inversion models informed by both geologic and geodetic input. The two block models considered indicate significantly higher slip rates than the expert opinion and the two fault-based combined inversion models. For the hazard maps, we apply 20 percent weight with equal weighting for the two fault-based models. Off-fault geodetic-based models were not considered in this version of the maps. Resulting changes to the hazard maps are generally less than 0.05 g (acceleration of gravity). Future research will improve the maps and interpret differences between the new models.

Arizona;Colorado;Idaho;Montana;New Mexico;Nevada;O

Using cluster analysis to organize and explore regional GPS velocities

Cluster analysis offers a simple visual exploratory tool for the initial investigation of regional Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity observations, which are providing increasingly precise mappings of actively deforming continental lithosphere. The deformation fields from dense regional GPS networks can often be concisely described in terms of relatively coherent blocks bounded by active faults, although the choice of blocks, their number and size, can be subjective and is often guided by the distribution of known faults. To illustrate our method, we apply cluster analysis to GPS velocities from the San Francisco Bay Region, California, to search for spatially coherent patterns of deformation, including evidence of block-like behavior. The clustering process identifies four robust groupings of velocities that we identify with four crustal blocks. Although the analysis uses no prior geologic information other than the GPS velocities, the cluster/block boundaries track three major faults, both locked and creeping.

Geophysical Research Letters

Uplift, thermal unrest and magma intrusion at Yellowstone caldera

The Yellowstone caldera, in the western United States, formed 640,000 years ago when an explosive eruption ejected 1,000 km 3 of material 1 . It is the youngest of a series of large calderas that formed during sequential cataclysmic eruptions that began 16 million years ago in eastern Oregon and northern Nevada. The Yellowstone caldera was largely buried by rhyolite lava flows during eruptions that occurred from 150,000 to 70,000 years ago 1 . Since the last eruption, Yellowstone has remained restless, with high seismicity, continuing uplift/subsidence episodes with movements of 70 cm historically 2 to several metres since the Pleistocene epoch 3 , and intense hydrothermal activity. Here we present observations of a new mode of surface deformation in Yellowstone, based on radar interferometry observations from the European Space Agency ERS-2 satellite. We infer that the observed pattern of uplift and subsidence results from variations in the movement of molten basalt into and out of the Yellowstone volcanic system.

Wyoming

Geophysics: Silent slip on the Cascadia subduction interface

G eodetic satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS) now permit continuous recording of surface motions around earthquake faults and volcanoes with millimeter precision. Data from distinct points on Earth's surface can be combined to infer the locations of the sources of deformation at depth in the crust. These data are radically altering our understanding of earthquake processes, justifying ambitious new sensor arrays to image active deformation sources in Earth's crust. In recent years, large continuous GPS arrays have been deployed in Japan and southern California, and smaller networks have been installed in other seismically active regions. On page 1525 of this issue ( 1 ), Dragert et al. provide a glimpse of the kinds of insights we can expect from these arrays.

Cascadia subduction zone

Coseismic slip resolution along a plate boundary megathrust: the Nankai Trough, southwest Japan

Geodetic survey measurements are used to estimate the coseismic slip distribution in the 1944 Tonankai (M w =8.1) and 1946 Nankaido (M w =8.3) earthquakes and to assess quantitatively the degree to which this slip is resolved on the plate boundary megathrust. Data used include 798 angle changes from triangulation surveys, 328 leveling section differences, and 5 coseismic tidal gage offsets. Many of the nominally coseismic triangulation data span ∼50 years, nearly half the earthquake cycle, and correction for interseismic deformation using post-1950 observations is applied. Microseismicity is used to define the configuration of the plate boundary interface and approximate it with a continuous, multisegment fault model. Because the onshore geodetic data have very limited resolving power for offshore fault segments, offshore coseismic slip was constrained by Satctke's [1993] estimation based on tsunami data. The majority of the coseismic slip occurs between 15 and 25 km depth. Although resolution declines toward the trench axis, it is sufficiently good to define two distinct high-slip regions, one off southeastern Shikoku Island (11 m maximum) and the other offshore of Kii Peninsula (3 m maximum). The slip magnitude off southeastern Shikoku, coupled with the plate convergence rate, would imply an recurrence interval of about 270 years, much-longer than the average repeat time of ∼120 years for historical great earthquakes on the Nankai Trough. However, the maximum coseismic slip is sensitive to the assumed fault geometry, and slippage on trough-parallel splay faults could significantly decrease the maximum slip to about 6 m.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth