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Ward E. Sanford

Publications and source records attributed to Ward E. Sanford.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Sulfate from severe acid rain due to anthracite coal burning still evident in rivers one century later

Long-term decreasing sulfate concentrations in rivers across the northeastern United States indicate a strong source of atmospheric sulfur in the early 20th century. The sulfate levels and declines are too great and early to be explained by acid rain mitigation in the late 20th century. Anthracite coal was heavily mined in eastern Pennsylvania between 1860 and 1960 and burned across several U.S. states. Even though it is a relatively low-sulfur coal, the amount of anthracite mined between 1860 and 1960 was great-roughly five billion tons. Nearly all of this coal was burned in the populous region of the northeastern United States which contributed to rain acidity levels in the 1920s that are estimated here to have been four times that during the 1970s. Subsurface sorption and transit-time-distribution equations were applied to 38 watersheds in the region with discharging river sulfate data as early as the 1920s. Mining records from the U.S. Geological Survey allows for an accurate input signal. Results show a good fit to quantities of sulfur mined and the concentrations and trends in rivers, with median subsurface residence times between 13 and 137 years. In many watersheds, soil sorption/desorption or long groundwater-lag times could equally explain the delayed response. On Long Island, the deep porous sandy aquifer has delayed sulfate response to the extent some concentrations have only peaked in the last decade. The average delayed sulfate delivery of several decades implies that similar ongoing and future retention of other diffuse-source contaminants could occur in other watersheds.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Projecting stream water quality using Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS): An example with drought conditions in the Delaware River Basin

Future water availability depends on understanding the responses of constituent concentrations to hydrologic change. Projecting future water quality remains a methodological challenge, particularly when using discrete observations with limited temporal resolution. This study introduces Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season for Projection (WRTDS-P), a novel, computationally efficient method that enables the projection of daily stream water quality under varying hydrologic conditions using commonly available discrete monitoring data. WRTDS-P model performance was validated using 39 sites in the Delaware River Basin (DRB) and four key constituents: specific conductance (SC), nitrate (NO 3 − ), magnesium (Mg 2+ ) and calcium (Ca 2+ ). Projections were tested against holdout data from the final 1 to 5 years of each time series, demonstrating robust predictive capability, with median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.67 for SC, 0.56 for NO 3 − , 0.65 for Ca 2+ , and 0.79 for Mg 2+ . Model uncertainty was correlated with indicators of hydrologic or geochemical mass-sinks, such as groundwater storage and adsorption in wetland soils. Drought scenario analyses for SC used ranges of reduced discharge including flows from the 1965 drought of record. Scenarios predicted widespread increases of SC, especially in southern DRB streams where baseline SC levels are already elevated. Fractional increases of SC were more uniformly distributed, indicating potential risk to sensitive ecosystems. Notably, drought-induced SC increases were positively correlated with interannual SC trends, indicating that hydrologic extremes could exacerbate ongoing salinization. This work provides a transferable and interpretable framework for projecting future water quality and assessing hydrologic risk to water resources and aquatic ecosystems.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗

Global groundwater carbon mass flux and the myth of atmospheric weathering

Our recent steady-state mass-balance modeling suggests that most global carbonic-acid weathering of silicate rocks occurs in the vadose zone of aquifer systems not on the surface by atmospheric CO 2 . That is, the weathering solute flux is nearly equal to the total global continental riverine carbon flux, signifying little atmospheric weathering by carbonic acid. This finding challenges previous carbon models that utilize silicate weathering as a control of atmospheric CO 2 levels. A robust analysis utilizing global estimates of groundwater carbon concentration generated by a geospatial machine learning algorithm was coupled with recharge flux in a geographic information system environment to yield a total global groundwater carbon flux of between 0.87 and 0.96 Pg C/year to the surface environment. On discharging to the surface, the carbon is speciated between 0.01 and 0.11 Pg C/year as CaCO 3 ; 0.35 and 0.38 Pg C/year as CO 2 gas; and 0.49 and 0.51 Pg C/year as dissolved HCO 3 − . This total weathering carbon flux was calculated for direct ocean discharge (0.030 Pg C/year); endorheic basins (0.046 Pg C/year); cold-wet exorheic basins (0.058 Pg C/year); warm-dry exorheic basins (0.072 Pg C/year); cold-dry exorheic basins (0.115 Pg C/year); and warm-wet exorheic basins (0.448 Pg C/year).

Groundwater↗

Ensemble estimation of historical evapotranspiration for the conterminous U.S.

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest component of the water budget, accounting for the majority of the water available from precipitation. ET is challenging to quantify because of the uncertainties associated with the many ET equations currently in use, and because observations of ET are uncertain and sparse. In this study, we combine information provided by available ET data and equations to produce a new monthly data set for ET for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). These maps are produced from 1895 to 2018 at an 800 m spatial scale, marking a finer resolution than currently available products over this time period. In our approach, the relative performance of a suite of ET equations is assessed using water balance, flux tower, and remotely sensed ET estimates. At the observation locations, we use error distributions to quantify relative weights for the equations and use these in a modified Bayesian model averaging weighted ensemble approach. The relative weights are spatially generalized using a random forest regression, which is applied to wall-to-wall explanatory variable maps to generate CONUS-wide relative weight maps and ensemble estimates. We assess the performance of the ensemble using a reserved subset of the observations and compare this performance against other national-scale map products for historical to modern ET. The ensemble ET maps are shown to provide an improved accuracy over the alternative comparison products. These ET maps could be useful for a variety of hydrologic modeling and assessment applications that benefit from a long record, such as the study of periods of water scarcity through time.

Water Resources Research↗

Effects of climate and irrigation on GRACE-based estimates of water storage changes in major US aquifers

Understanding climate and human impacts on water storage is critical for sustainable water-resources management. Here we assessed climate and human drivers of total water storage (TWS) variability from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites compared with drought severity and irrigation water use in 14 major aquifers in the United States. Results show that long-term variability in TWS tracked by GRACE satellites is dominated by interannual variability in most of the 14 major US aquifers. Low TWS trends in the humid eastern U.S. are linked to low drought intensity. Although irrigation pumpage in the humid Mississippi Embayment aquifer exceeded that in the semi-arid California Central Valley, a surprising lack of TWS depletion in the Mississippi Embayment aquifer is attributed to extensive streamflow capture. Marked storage depletion in the semi-arid southwestern Central Valley and south-central High Plains totaled ∼90 km 3 , about three times greater than the capacity of Lake Mead, the largest U.S. reservoir. Depletion in the Central Valley was driven by long-term droughts (⩽5 yr) amplified by switching from mostly surface water to groundwater irrigation. Low or slightly rising TWS trends in the northwestern (Columbia and Snake Basins) US are attributed to dampening drought impacts by mostly surface water irrigation. GRACE satellite data highlight synergies between climate and irrigation, resulting in little impact on TWS in the humid east, amplified TWS depletion in the semi-arid southwest and southcentral US, and dampened TWS deletion in the northwest and north central US Sustainable groundwater management benefits from conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater, inefficient surface water irrigation promoting groundwater recharge, efficient groundwater irrigation minimizing depletion, and increasing managed aquifer recharge. This study has important implications for sustainable water development in many regions globally.

Environmental Research Letters↗

Calibrated simulation of the long-term average surficial groundwater system and derived spatial distributions of its characteristics for the contiguous United States

While the physical processes governing groundwater flow are well understood, and the computational resources now exist for solving the governing equations in three dimensions over continental-scale domains, there remains substantial uncertainty about the subsurface distribution of the properties that control groundwater flow and transport for much of the contiguous United States (CONUS). The transmissivity of the shallow subsurface is a key parameter for the simulation of water table position, shallow groundwater flow, and base-flow discharge, but is not well-characterized at large regional to continental scales. We used a process-based inversion of CONUS-extent groundwater information to generate national data sets of (a) the transmissivity of the shallow groundwater system, (b) the depth to the water table, (c) groundwater discharge as base-flow, and (d) long-term average water content in the unsaturated zone. CONUS-extent coverage was developed in the form of 75 subdomain models, with the spatial distribution of long-term average transmissivity for each subdomain model calibrated against water-levels derived from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) observation wells, NHDPlusV2 first-order perennial streams, and National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) freshwater wetlands. Estimated transmissivities were lower in the western CONUS than the eastern CONUS, and across the CONUS both transmissivity and depth to water correlate with recharge, elevation, and topographic slope. These generated data sets provide spatially distributed, long-term average estimates of subsurface properties and hydrological states that we anticipate will complement other environmental modeling efforts as explanatory variables, boundary conditions, or transport pathways.

contiguous United States↗

Quantifying background nitrate removal mechanisms in an agricultural watershed with contrasting subcatchment baseflow concentrations

Numerous studies have documented the linkages between agricultural nitrogen loads and surface water degradation. In contrast, potential water quality improvements due to agricultural best management practices are difficult to detect because of the confounding effect of background nitrate removal rates, as well as the groundwater-driven delay between land surface action and stream response. To characterize background controls on nitrate removal in two agricultural catchments, we calibrated groundwater travel time distributions with subsurface environmental tracer data to quantify the lag time between historic agricultural inputs and measured baseflow nitrate. We then estimated spatially distributed loading to the water table from nitrate measurements at monitoring wells, using machine learning techniques to extrapolate the loading to unmonitored portions of the catchment to subsequently estimate catchment removal controls. Multiple models agree that in-stream processes remove as much as 75% of incoming loads for one subcatchment while removing <20% of incoming loads for the other. The use of a spatially variable loading field did not result in meaningfully different optimized parameter estimates or model performance when compared with spatially constant loading derived directly from a county-scale agricultural nitrogen budget. Although previous studies using individual well measurements have shown that subsurface denitrification due to contact with a reducing argillaceous confining unit plays an important role in nitrate removal, the catchment-scale contribution of this process is difficult to quantify given the available data. Nonetheless, the study provides a baseline characterization of nitrate transport timescales and removal mechanisms that will support future efforts to detect water quality benefits from ongoing best management practice implementation.

Maryland↗

Estimating quick-flow runoff at the monthly timescale for the conterminous United States

The quantitative estimation of the quick-flow runoff component of streamflow is required for many hydrologic applications. Estimation at the monthly timescale and national spatial scale would be particularly useful for national water availability modeling. This paper reviews a sample of commonly used equations for quick-flow runoff, including several currently in use in continental-scale models. The review shows the wide range of equation forms or heuristics currently in use to predict quick-flow runoff, the limited spatial scale over which these equations are often developed or calibrated, and the scarcity of well-tested equations available for quick-flow runoff at the monthly timescale. Data were gathered from a set of 1301 gaged watersheds across the United States to test a range of equations from the literature, along with several alternative equations, to assess and compare their performance in predicting quick-flow runoff at the monthly timescale. The highest-performing equation was selected for application to monthly maps of explanatory variables to produce monthly quick-flow runoff water budget contribution maps. This equation is a regression against precipitation, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, surficial geology type, and slope data. Its application indicates that average quick-flow runoff across the conterminous United States in the winter exceeds that in the summer by up to a factor of three. The monthly maps were explored and evaluated for the timespan of 2000-2015. The comparison of equation forms and produced monthly maps will be useful for a variety of hydrologic modeling and monitoring applications.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Calibration of regional hydraulic and transport properties of an arid-region aquifer under modern and paleorecharge conditions using water levels and environmental tracers

A two-dimensional numerical groundwater flow model was established and calibrated for the hyperarid Najd region in southern Oman. The results indicate that recent recharge rates are required to sustain the observed groundwater heads in the Najd. The model was also used to estimate possible ranges of past recharge rates and the effective porosity of the main aquifer unit. Recharge rates during past humid periods were estimated to be no more than 1–3 times modern rates. The effective porosity was estimated to be between 0.06 and 0.093. Insight into the nature of the long-term transport within the aquifer was gained by using transient model runs over the last 350 ka and (1) varying the recharge intensity (from 0.1 to 2.5 times modern), and (2) the timing and duration of humid and dry periods. Finally, results indicate that although recharge rates and the flow conditions have likely changed over time, a steady-state model is capable of reproducing the observed groundwater residence times in the Najd based on carbon-14, helium and chlorine-36 dating.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF 6 , CFCs, and 3 H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via stream discharge and irrigation withdrawals. Finally, we demonstrate a novel model-averaged computation of potential data worth that can account for these uncertainties in model structure.

Maryland↗

Combining remote sensing and water-balance evapotranspiration estimates for the conterminous United States

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the hydrologic cycle, accounting for ~70% of precipitation in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS), but it has been a challenge to predict accurately across different spatio-temporal scales. The increasing availability of remotely sensed data has led to significant advances in the frequency and spatial resolution of ET estimates, derived from energy balance principles with variables such as temperature used to estimate surface latent heat flux. Although remote sensing methods excel at depicting spatial and temporal variability, estimation of ET independently of other water budget components can lead to inconsistency with other budget terms. Methods that rely on ground-based data better constrain long-term ET, but are unable to provide the same temporal resolution. Here we combine long-term ET estimates from a water-balance approach with the SSEBop (operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance) remote sensing-based ET product for 2000–2015. We test the new combined method, the original SSEBop product, and another remote sensing ET product (MOD16) against monthly measurements from 119 flux towers. The new product showed advantages especially in non-irrigated areas where the new method showed a coefficient of determination R 2 of 0.44, compared to 0.41 for SSEBop or 0.35 for MOD16. The resulting monthly data set will be a useful, unique contribution to ET estimation, due to its combination of remote sensing-based variability and ground-based long-term water balance constraints.

Remote Sensing↗

Annual estimates of recharge, quick-flow runoff, and ET for the contiguous U.S. using empirical regression equations

This study presents new data-driven, annual estimates of the division of precipitation into the recharge, quick-flow runoff, and evapotranspiration (ET) water budget components for 2000-2013 for the contiguous United States (CONUS). The algorithms used to produce these maps ensure water budget consistency over this broad spatial scale, with contributions from precipitation influx attributed to each component at 800 m resolution. The quick-flow runoff estimates for the contribution to the rapidly varying portion of the hydrograph are produced using data from 1,434 gaged watersheds, and depend on precipitation, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, and surficial geology type. Evapotranspiration estimates are produced from a regression using water balance data from 679 gaged watersheds and depend on land cover, temperature, and precipitation. The quick-flow and ET estimates are combined to calculate recharge as the remainder of precipitation. The ET and recharge estimates are checked against independent field data, and the results show good agreement. Comparisons of recharge estimates with groundwater extraction data show that in 15% of the country, groundwater is being extracted at rates higher than the local recharge. These maps of the internally consistent water budget components of recharge, quick-flow runoff, and ET, being derived from and tested against data, are expected to provide reliable first-order estimates of these quantities across the CONUS, even where field measurements are sparse.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

Grand challenges for integrated USGS science — A workshop report

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science disciplines and identifying opportunities to integrate USGS science across disciplines to address complex societal problems. The USGS science strategy for 2007–2017 laid out key challenges in disciplinary and interdisciplinary arenas, culminating in a call for increased focus on a number of crosscutting science directions. Ten years on, to further the goal of integrated science and at the request of the Executive Leadership Team (ELT), a workshop with three dozen invited scientists spanning different disciplines and career stages in the Bureau convened on February 7–10, 2017, at the USGS John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis in Fort Collins, Colorado. The workshop focused on identifying “grand challenges” for integrated USGS science. Individual participants identified nearly 70 potential grand challenges before the workshop and through workshop discussions. After discussion, four overarching grand challenges emerged: Natural resource security, Societal risk from existing and emerging threats, Smart infrastructure development, and Anticipatory science for changing landscapes. Participants also identified a “comprehensive science challenge” that highlights the development of integrative science, data, models, and tools—all interacting in a modular framework—that can be used to address these and other future grand challenges: Earth Monitoring, Analyses, and Projections (EarthMAP) EarthMAP is our long-term vision for an integrated scientific framework that spans traditional scientific boundaries and disciplines, and integrates the full portfolio of USGS science: research, monitoring, assessment, analysis, and information delivery. The Department of Interior, and the Nation in general, have a vast array of information needs. The USGS meets these needs by having a broadly trained and agile scientific workforce. Encouraging and supporting cross-discipline engagement would position the USGS to tackle complex and multifaceted scientific and societal challenges in the 21st Century.

Open-File Report↗

The role of uplift and erosion in the persistence of saline groundwater in the shallow subsurface

In many regions of the world, the shallow (<300 m) subsurface is replenished with meteoric recharge within a few centuries or millennia, but in some regions saline groundwater persists despite abundant rainfall. Analyses of the flushing rate of shallow groundwater usually consider the permeability and recharge rate and a static landscape. The influence of landscape evolution can become important over millions of years, however. Here we present numerical simulations of fluid flow and transport in the top 1 km of a sedimentary foreland basin dominated by aquitards, where the rate of uplift and erosion (20 m Ma −1 ) balances that of meteoric flushing. Paleozoic age saline groundwater and brine persist at shallow depths that might otherwise have contained potable water. Similar hydrogeologic conditions, and uplift and erosion rates, likely exist in many other regions of the world, where a moving landscape has probably never been considered as an important contributor to groundwater quality.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Estimating regional-scale permeability–depth relations in a fractured-rock terrain using groundwater-flow model calibration

The trend of decreasing permeability with depth was estimated in the fractured-rock terrain of the upper Potomac River basin in the eastern USA using model calibration on 200 water-level observations in wells and 12 base-flow observations in subwatersheds. Results indicate that permeability at the 1–10 km scale (for groundwater flowpaths) decreases by several orders of magnitude within the top 100 m of land surface. This depth range represents the transition from the weathered, fractured regolith into unweathered bedrock. This rate of decline is substantially greater than has been observed by previous investigators that have plotted in situ wellbore measurements versus depth. The difference is that regional water levels give information on kilometer-scale connectivity of the regolith and adjacent fracture networks, whereas in situ measurements give information on near-hole fractures and fracture networks. The approach taken was to calibrate model layer-to-layer ratios of hydraulic conductivity (LLKs) for each major rock type. Most rock types gave optimal LLK values of 40–60, where each layer was twice a thick as the one overlying it. Previous estimates of permeability with depth from deeper data showed less of a decline at <300 m than the regional modeling results. There was less certainty in the modeling results deeper than 200 m and for certain rock types where fewer water-level observations were available. The results have implications for improved understanding of watershed-scale groundwater flow and transport, such as for the timing of the migration of pollutants from the water table to streams.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

Use of multiple age tracers to estimate groundwater residence times and long-term recharge rates in arid southern Oman

Multiple age tracers were measured to estimate groundwater residence times in the regional aquifer system underlying southwestern Oman. This area, known as the Najd, is one of the most arid areas in the world and is planned to be the main agricultural center of the Sultanate of Oman in the near future. The three isotopic age tracers 4 He, 14 C and 36 Cl were measured in waters collected from wells along a line that extended roughly from the Dhofar Mountains near the Arabian Sea northward 400 km into the Empty Quarter of the Arabian Peninsula. The wells sampled were mostly open to the Umm Er Radhuma confined aquifer, although, some were completed in the mostly unconfined Rus aquifer. The combined results from the three tracers indicate the age of the confined groundwater is < 40 ka in the recharge area in the Dhofar Mountains, > 100 ka in the central section north of the mountains, and up to and > one Ma in the Empty Quarter. The 14 C data were used to help calibrate the 4 He and 36 Cl data. Mixing models suggest that long open boreholes north of the mountains compromise 14 C-only interpretations there, in contrast to 4 He and 36 Cl calculations that are less sensitive to borehole mixing. Thus, only the latter two tracers from these more distant wells were considered reliable. In addition to the age tracers, δ 2 H and δ 18 O data suggest that seasonal monsoon and infrequent tropical cyclones are both substantial contributors to the recharge. The study highlights the advantages of using multiple chemical and isotopic data when estimating groundwater travel times and recharge rates, and differentiating recharge mechanisms.

Dhofar Mountains↗

Dating base flow in streams using dissolved gases and diurnal temperature changes

A method is presented for using dissolved CFCs or SF 6 to estimate the apparent age of stream base flow by indirectly estimating the mean concentration of the tracer in the inflowing groundwater. The mean value is estimated simultaneously with the mean residence times of the gas and water in the stream by sampling the stream for one or both age tracers, along with dissolved nitrogen and argon at a single location over a period of approximately 12–14 h. The data are fitted to an equation representing the temporal in-stream gas exchange as it responds to the diurnal temperature fluctuation. The efficacy of the method is demonstrated by collecting and analyzing samples at six different stream locations across parts of northern Virginia, USA. The studied streams drain watersheds with areas of between 2 and 122 km 2 during periods when the diurnal stream temperature ranged between 2 and 5°C. The method has the advantage of estimating the mean groundwater residence time of discharge from the watershed to the stream without the need for the collection of groundwater infiltrating to streambeds or local groundwater sampled from shallow observation wells near the stream.

Virginia↗

Estimating mean long-term hydrologic budget components for watersheds and counties: An application to the commonwealth of Virginia, USA

Mean long-term hydrologic budget components, such as recharge and base flow, are often difficult to estimate because they can vary substantially in space and time. Mean long-term fluxes were calculated in this study for precipitation, surface runoff, infiltration, total evapotranspiration (ET), riparian ET, recharge, base flow (or groundwater discharge) and net total outflow using long-term estimates of mean ET and precipitation and the assumption that the relative change in storage over that 30-year period is small compared to the total ET or precipitation. Fluxes of these components were first estimated on a number of real-time-gaged watersheds across Virginia. Specific conductance was used to distinguish and separate surface runoff from base flow. Specific-conductance (SC) data were collected every 15 minutes at 75 real-time gages for approximately 18 months between March 2007 and August 2008. Precipitation was estimated for 1971-2000 using PRISM climate data. Precipitation and temperature from the PRISM data were used to develop a regression-based relation to estimate total ET. The proportion of watershed precipitation that becomes surface runoff was related to physiographic province and rock type in a runoff regression equation. A new approach to estimate riparian ET using seasonal SC data gave results consistent with those from other methods. Component flux estimates from the watersheds were transferred to flux estimates for counties and independent cities using the ET and runoff regression equations. Only 48 of the 75 watersheds yielded sufficient data, and data from these 48 were used in the final runoff regression equation. Final results for the study are presented as component flux estimates for all counties and independent cities in Virginia. The method has the potential to be applied in many other states in the U.S. or in other regions or countries of the world where climate and stream flow data are plentiful.

Hydrology: Current Research↗