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W. L. Kendall

Publications and source records attributed to W. L. Kendall.

53 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2002

An appeal to undergraduate wildlife programs: send scientists to learn statistics

Undergraduate wildlife students taking introductory statistics too often are poorly prepared and insufficiently motivated to learn statistics. We have also encountered too many wildlife professionals, even with graduate degrees, who exhibit an aversion to thinking statistically, either relying too heavily on statisticians or avoiding statistics altogether. We believe part of the reason for these problems is that wildlife majors are insufficiently grounded in the scientific method and analytical thinking before they take statistics. We suggest that a partial solution is to assure wildlife majors are trained in the scientific method at the very beginning of their academic careers.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2001

Wildlife Study Design

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Springer series on environmental management.↗
USGS2001

Models for the adaptive harvest management of Rocky Mountain sandhill cranes: problems and potential

The migratory Rocky Mountain Population (RMP) of the greater sandhill crane (Grus canadensis tabida) breeds primarily in river valleys, marshes, and meadows of western Montana and Wyoming, southeastern Idaho, northern Utah, and northwestern Colorado. The RMP winters primarily in the Middle Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico, with smaller concentrations in the southwestern parts of that state, southeastern Arizona, and the northern highlands of Mexico. The San Luis Valley of Colorado is used as a stopover in both the spring and fall migrations. The RMP has been hunted on a permit basis since 1981, and currently these cranes are harvested in Arizona, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, and in Mexico. There are several sources of historic information on the dynamics of this population. Age ratios have been estimated from field observations in the San Luis Valley during fall migration since 1972. Cranes were banded, mostly on summer areas, from 1969-89, and re-sighted throughout the annual cycle. Aerial surveys and coordinated ground counts have been conducted either during spring migration in the San Luis Valley or in fall prior to migration since 1984 and 1987, respectively. A harvest survey has been conducted since 1981. Current monitoring programs include the fall assessment of age ratios, the fall pre-migration coordinated count, and the harvest survey. We discuss current attempts to use these information sources to build recruitment, survival, and harvest models for use in adaptive harvest management.

Book chapter↗
USGS2001

The robust design for capture-recapture studies: analysis using program MARK

Collecting capture-recapture data under Pollock?s robust design provides an additional source of information on capture probability that can be used to provide less biased and more efficient estimates of population dynamics parameters. In addition, it can be used to estimate the probability of being available for capture, which in some cases (e.g., breeding proportion) has ecological significance. This phenomenon can be modeled as a completely random process, Markovian, or with temporary trap dependence. Analysis of this type of data is one of the options in program MARK. By using MARK the relationship between parameters and covariates can be modeled, and various approaches to goodness of fit, model selection, and model averaging can be implemented.

Book chapter↗
USGS2001

Regional patterns in proportion of bird species detected in the North American Breeding Bird Survey

Counts from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) underestimate species richness. We use capture-recapture methods to estimate species richness from BBS count data collected in 1996 and show that detection probabilities demonstrate clear regional patterns. Capture-recapture methods should be used to estimate species richness from count data, and failure to use estimation procedures for species richness could result in biased estimates of spatial change in species richness.

Book chapter↗
USGS1997

Estimating temporary emigration using capture-recapture data with Pollock's robust design

Statistical inference for capture–recapture studies of open animal populations typically relies on the assumption that all emigration from the studied population is permanent. However, there are many instances in which this assumption is unlikely to be met. We define two general models for the process of temporary emigration: completely random and Markovian. We then consider effects of these two types of temporary emigration on Jolly–Seber estimators and on estimators arising from the full-likelihood approach to robust design data. Capture–recapture data arising from Pollock’s robust design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration, and for estimating the probability of temporary emigration. We present a likelihood-based approach to dealing with temporary emigration that permits estimation under different models of temporary emigration and yields tests for completely random and Markovian emigration. In addition, we use the relationship between capture probability estimates based on closed and open models under completely random temporary emigration to derive three ad hoc estimators for the probability of temporary emigration. Two of these should be especially useful in situations where capture probabilities are heterogeneous among individual animals. Ad hoc and full-likelihood estimators are illustrated for small-mammal capture–recapture data sets. We believe that these models and estimators will be useful for testing hypotheses about the process of temporary emigration, for estimating demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration, and for estimating probabilities of temporary emigration. These latter estimates are frequently of ecological interest as indicators of animal movement and, in some sampling situations, as direct estimates of breeding probabilities and proportions.

Ecology↗
USGS1997

Subspecies composition of sandhill crane harvest in North Dakota, 1968-94

North Dakota is a major fall staging area for the Midcontinent Population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis), which is composed of three subspecies: the greater (G. c. tabida), Canadian (G. c. rowani), and lesser (G. c. canadensis). The number of cranes killed by hunters in North Dakota averaged 6,793 during 1990-94 seasons, ranking second highest among crane-hunting states. The distribution of harvest among subspecies is important, due to concerns about the poorly known status of these subspecies, especially the greater. We estimated subspecies composition of the harvest in North Dakota using morphometric data collected from field samples of birds harvested since 1968. Subspecies composition varied both spatially (across counties from east to west) and temporally (among 3 periods of distinct harvest regulations and within season). Lessers predominated in the west and Canadians and greaters in the east. For the 1990-94 period we estimated that mortality due to hunting in North Dakota averaged at least 1,085 (18%) greaters, 2,138 (36%) Canadians, and 2,716 (46%) lessers.

Book chapter↗
USGS1997

Modeling the population dynamics of Gulf Coast sandhill cranes

The Midcontinental population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has a large geographic range, contains nearly 500,000 birds, and is hunted in much of its range. The population includes three subspecies; the numbers of two of these are uncertain, and they should be afforded protection from hunting that would be detrimental to their population. The two subspecies of concern tend to concentrate in the eastern part of the Great Plains during fall and spring and to winter along the Gulf Coast in Texas. This paper uses the limited information available about the Gulf Coast subpopulation in a model. We included in the model five input parameters: population size, annual survival rate in absence of hunting, the number of birds taken by hunters, the extent of additivity of hunting mortality, and recruitment rate, measured as the fraction of juveniles in the winter population. Using three widely ranging estimates of each parameter, we examined the general behavior of the simulated population. Realistic population projections occurred with medium (60,000) or large (166,000) population sizes, low (2000) or moderate (4000) harvests, and recruitment rates of 0.07 and 0.11. All values of survival in the absence of hunting and additivity of hunting yielded some realistic projections. Results of modelling suggest that the variables warranting closer monitoring are population size and recruitment rate.

Book chapter↗
USGS1996

First-time observer effects in the North American Breeding Bird Survey

Currently the operational analysis of Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data by the National Biological Service accounts for observer differences in estimating the trend for each route, but within-observer differences are not modeled. We tested for the existence of a form of within-observer differences in skill level, namely a change in ability to count birds of a given species after an observer's first year on a given route. An increase in ability could positively bias the trend estimate. Removal of an observer's first year of observation on each route for the period 1966 to 1991 resulted in lower average unweighted trend estimates for 415 of 459 species (90%). These reductions were statistically significant for 213 species (46%). The average reduction in trend was 1.8% change per year (SD = 5.4%). In route-regression analysis, route data are weighted by a measure of precision. Removing first-year observer counts reduced the weighted trend estimate for 275 of 416 species (66%), but differences generally were small.

The Auk↗
USGS1995

On the use of secondary capture-recapture samples to estimate temporary emigration and breeding proportions

The use of the Cormack- Jolly-Seber model under a standard sampling scheme of one sample per time period, when the Jolly-Seber assumption that all emigration is permanent does not hold, leads to the confounding of temporary emigration probabilities with capture probabilities. This biases the estimates of capture probability when temporary emigration is a completely random process, and both capture and survival probabilities when there is a temporary trap response in temporary emigration, or it is Markovian. The use of secondary capture samples over a shorter interval within each period, during which the population is assumed to be closed (Pollock's robust design), provides a second source of information on capture probabilities. This solves the confounding problem, and thus temporary emigration probabilities can be estimated. This process can be accomplished in an ad hoc fashion for completely random temporary emigration and to some extent in the temporary trap response case, but modelling the complete sampling process provides more flexibility and permits direct estimation of variances. For the case of Markovian temporary emigration, a full likelihood is required.

Book chapter↗
USGS1993

The 'robust' capture-recapture design allows components of recruitment to be estimated

The 'robust' capture-recapture design (Pollock 1982) allows analyses which combine features of closed population model analyses (Otis et aI., 1978, White et aI., 1982) and open population model analyses (Pollock et aI., 1990). Estimators obtained under these analyses are more robust to unequal catch ability than traditional Jolly-Seber estimators (Pollock, 1982; Pollock et al., 1990; Kendall, 1992). The robust design also allows estimation of parameters for population size, survival rate and recruitment numbers for all periods of the study unlike under Jolly-Seber type models. The major advantage of this design that we emphasize in this short review paper is that it allows separate estimation of immigration and in situ recruitment numbers for a two or more age class model (Nichols and Pollock, 1990). This is contrasted with the age-dependent Jolly-Seber model (Pollock, 1981; Stokes, 1984; Pollock et L, 1990) which provides separate estimates for immigration and in situ recruitment for all but the first two age classes where there is at least a three age class model. The ability to achieve this separation of recruitment components can be very important to population modelers and wildlife managers as many species can only be separated into two easily identified age classes in the field.

Book chapter↗
USGS1956

Fifty-sixth Christmas Bird Count. 147. Southern Dorchester County, Md

Summary and Recommendations: We suggest that managers are approaching the limits of their ability to improve waterfowl harvest management, primarily because the information needed to make better decisions is being sacrificed by the current approach to setting regulations. We propose an actively adaptive management strategy in which regulatory decisions play a dominant role in reducing uncertainty about population dynamics. The proposed strategy recognizes 'value' in acquiring knowledge only to the extent that it contributes to the objective of optimizing harvests. To implement this strategy, managers will need: (1) a set of regulatory options, with possible constraints on their use; (2) quantifiable harvest management objectives; (3) a set of models that represent an array of meaningful hypotheses about the effects of regulations on populations; and (4) a measure of credibility (or likelihood) for each model, which can be updated regularly using information from waterfowl monitoring programs. Adaptive optimization is an iterative process in which the harvest-management policy converges over time to one that maximizes harvest under the most appropriate model. At each time step, an optimal regulatory decision is identified based on the state of the system and the model likelihoods. In the next time step, predicted population changes from the alternative models are compared with the actual changes provided by the monitoring program, The likelihoods are increased or decreased to the extent that predicted and actual population changes correspond. These updated likelihoods then are used in setting regulations in the next cycle and the process begins again. This iterative process produces the most informative regulations when uncertainty is prevalent and produces maximum sustainable yields as uncertainty is eliminated. We see no major obstacles to implementing this adaptive strategy, although there are a number of practical considerations. First and foremost, managers should assess the 'value' of learning. Only when there is a high degree of uncertainty about the effects of hunting regulations on population dynamics will the merit of our proposed strategy be evident. We suggest that this almost always will be true given our current understanding of the relationship between annual regulations, survival and population growth in waterfowl. Nonetheless, careful consideration should be given to formulating the set of alternative models. There is no value in distinguishing between models which differ in their mathematical formulation or biological realism, but which suggest similar harvest strategies. We suspect that 'mechanistic' models (i.e., those that attempt to capture the essence of biological processes) will make better candidates for model sets than so-called 'phenomenological' models. Assuming that all model sets include a good approximation of reality, learning rates will be dependent on the quality of monitoring programs. Fortunately, a variety of high-quality monitoring plans for many duck and goose populations of North America, when used with our adaptive approach, should provide new knowledge about population dynamics and response to hunting, and, thus, lead to improved management.

Audubon Field Notes↗