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W. H. Bakun

Publications and source records attributed to W. H. Bakun.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2012

Slip partitioning of the Calaveras Fault, California, and prospects for future earthquakes

Examination of main shock and microearthquake data from the Calaveras Fault during the last 20 years reveals that main shock hypocenters occur at depths of 8-9 km near the base of the zone of microearthquakes. Microseismicity extends between depths of 4 and 10 km and defines zones of concentrated microseismicity and aseismic zones. Estimates of the fault regions which slipped during the Coyote Lake and Morgan Hill earthquakes as derived from seismic radiation coincide with zones which are otherwise aseismic. We propose that these persistent aseismic zones represent stuck patches which slip only during moderate earthquakes. From the pattern of microearthquake locations we recognize six aseismic zones where we expect future main shocks will rupture the Calaveras Fault. -from Authors

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2011

Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region

We evaluate the long-term seismic activity of the North-American/Caribbean plate boundary from 500 years of historical earthquake damage reports. The 2010 Haiti earthquakes and other earthquakes were used to derive regional attenuation relationships between earthquake intensity, magnitude, and distance from the reported damage to the epicenter, for Hispaniola and for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The attenuation relationship for Hispaniola earthquakes and northern Lesser Antilles earthquakes is similar to that for California earthquakes, indicating a relatively rapid attenuation of damage intensity with distance. Intensities in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands decrease less rapidly with distance. We use the intensity-magnitude relationships to systematically search for the location and intensity magnitude MI which best fit all the reported damage for historical earthquakes. Many events occurred in the 20th-century along the plate-boundary segment from central Hispaniola to the NW tip of Puerto Rico, but earlier events from this segment were not identified. The remaining plate boundary to the east to Guadeloupe is probably not associated with M > 8 historical subduction-zone earthquakes. The May 2, 1787 earthquake, previously assigned an M 8–8.25, is probably only M I 6.9 and could be located north, west or SW of Puerto Rico. An M I 6.9 earthquake on July 11, 1785 was probably located north or east of the Virgin Islands. We located M I < 8 historical earthquakes on April 5, 1690, February 8, 1843, and October 8, 1974 in the northern Lesser Antilles within the arc. We speculate that the December 2, 1562 (M I 7.7) and May 7, 1842 (M I 7.6) earthquakes ruptured the Septentrional Fault in northern Hispaniola. If so, the recurrence interval on the central Septentrional Fault is ~300 years, and only 170 years has elapsed since the last event. The recurrence interval of large earthquakes along the Hispaniola subduction segment is likely longer than the historical record. Intra-arc M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes may occur every 75–100 years in the 410-km-long segment between the Virgin Islands and Guadeloupe.

Caribbean Sea↗
USGS2011

The 16 May 1909 northern Great Plains earthquake

The largest historical earthquake in the northern Great Plains occurred on 16 May 1909. Our analysis of intensity assignments places the earthquake location (48.81° N, 105.38° W) close to the Montana–Saskatchewan border with an intensity magnitude MI of 5.3–5.4. Observations from two seismic observatories in Europe give an average Ms value of 5.3. The 1909 earthquake is near an alignment of epicenters of small earthquakes in Montana and Saskatchewan and on strike with the mapped Hinsdale fault in Montana. Thus, the 1909 earthquake may have occurred on a 300-km-long seismically active fault, which could have seismic-hazard implications for the region, particularly for the hydraulically emplaced earth-filled Fort Peck Dam, constructed in the 1930s on the Missouri River in northeast Montana.

Great Plains↗
USGS2011

Epistemic uncertainty in the location and magnitude of earthquakes in Italy from Macroseismic data

Three independent techniques (Bakun and Wentworth, 1997; Boxer from Gasperini et al., 1999; and Macroseismic Estimation of Earthquake Parameters [MEEP; see Data and Resources section, deliverable D3] from R.M.W. Musson and M.J. Jimenez) have been proposed for estimating an earthquake location and magnitude from intensity data alone. The locations and magnitudes obtained for a given set of intensity data are almost always different, and no one technique is consistently best at matching instrumental locations and magnitudes of recent well-recorded earthquakes in Italy. Rather than attempting to select one of the three solutions as best, we use all three techniques to estimate the location and the magnitude and the epistemic uncertainties among them. The estimates are calculated using bootstrap resampled data sets with Monte Carlo sampling of a decision tree. The decision-tree branch weights are based on goodness-of-fit measures of location and magnitude for recent earthquakes. The location estimates are based on the spatial distribution of locations calculated from the bootstrap resampled data. The preferred source location is the locus of the maximum bootstrap location spatial density. The location uncertainty is obtained from contours of the bootstrap spatial density: 68% of the bootstrap locations are within the 68% confidence region, and so on. For large earthquakes, our preferred location is not associated with the epicenter but with a location on the extended rupture surface. For small earthquakes, the epicenters are generally consistent with the location uncertainties inferred from the intensity data if an epicenter inaccuracy of 2-3 km is allowed. The preferred magnitude is the median of the distribution of bootstrap magnitudes. As with location uncertainties, the uncertainties in magnitude are obtained from the distribution of bootstrap magnitudes: the bounds of the 68% uncertainty range enclose 68% of the bootstrap magnitudes, and so on. The instrumental magnitudes for large and small earthquakes are generally consistent with the confidence intervals inferred from the distribution of bootstrap resampled magnitudes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Modified Mercalli intensity assignments for the May 16, 1909, Northern Plains earthquake

We use newspaper accounts from the United States and Canada to assign modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) at 90 towns for the May 16, 1909 Northern Plains earthquake. Our MMI assignments generally are consistent with those plotted on Nuttli's (1976) isoseiemal map. The earthquake was felt over more than 1,500,000 km2 in the states of Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming and the provinces of Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, and Saskatchewan.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2009

Comment on "Revisiting the 1872 owens valley, California, earthquake" by Susan E. Hough and Kate Hutton

Bakun (2009) argues that the conclusions of Hough and Hutton (2008) are wrong because the study failed to take into account the Sierra Nevada attenuation model of Bakun (2006). In particular, Bakun (2009) argues that propagation effects can explain the relatively high intensities generated by the 1872 Owens Valley earthquake. Using an intensity attenuation model that attempts to account for attenuation through the Sierra Nevada, Bakun (2006) infers the magnitude estimate (M w 7.4–7.5) that is currently accepted by National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2009

Modified Mercalli Intensity Assignments for the May 16, 1909, Northern Plains Earthquake

We combine newspaper accounts and Nuttli's (1976) isoseismal map to assign modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) at 76 towns for the May 16, 1909 Northern Plains earthquake. The earthquake was felt across more than 1,500,000 km2 in the States of Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming and the Provinces of Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, and Saskatchewan.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

M-log A observations for recent large earthquakes

Using a magnitude (M)-log area (A) dataset augmented with seven large (M > 7.0) earthquakes occurring since Wells and Coppersmith (1994), this short note assesses the current validity of the bilinear M-log A relations for continental, strike-slip earthquakes proposed by Hanks and Bakun (2002), in particular the L-model scaling at M > 7. The relations determined by Hanks and Bakun (2002) are only insignificantly altered, leaving these bilinear M-log A relations as valid now as when first proposed.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Regional intensity attenuation models for France and the estimation of magnitude and location of historical earthquakes

Intensity assignments for 33 calibration earthquakes were used to develop intensity attenuation models for the Alps, Armorican, Provence, Pyrenees and Rhine regions of France. Intensity decreases with ?? most rapidly in the French Alps, Provence and Pyrenees regions, and least rapidly in the Armorican and Rhine regions. The comparable Armorican and Rhine region attenuation models are aggregated into a French stable continental region model and the comparable Provence and Pyrenees region models are aggregated into a Southern France model. We analyse MSK intensity assignments using the technique of Bakun & Wentworth, which provides an objective method for estimating epicentral location and intensity magnitude MI. MI for the 1356 October 18 earthquake in the French stable continental region is 6.6 for a location near Basle, Switzerland, and moment magnitude M is 5.9-7.2 at the 95 per cent (??2??) confidence level. MI for the 1909 June 11 Trevaresse (Lambesc) earthquake near Marseilles in the Southern France region is 5.5, and M is 4.9-6.0 at the 95 per cent confidence level. Bootstrap resampling techniques are used to calculate objective, reproducible 67 per cent and 95 per cent confidence regions for the locations of historical earthquakes. These confidence regions for location provide an attractive alternative to the macroseismic epicentre and qualitative location uncertainties used heretofore. ?? 2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2006 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2006

Estimating locations and magnitudes of earthquakes in southern California from modified Mercalli intensities

Modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) assignments, instrumental moment magnitudes M, and epicenter locations of thirteen 5.6 ??? M ??? 7.1 "training-set" events in southern California were used to obtain the attenuation relation MMI = 1.64 + 1.41M - 0.00526 * ??h - 2.63 * log ??h, where ??h is the hypocentral distance in kilometers and M is moment magnitude. Intensity magnitudes MI and locations for five 5.9 ??? M ??? 7.3 independent test events were consistent with the instrumental source parameters. Fourteen "historical" earthquakes between 1890 and 1927 were then analyzed. Of particular interest are the MI 7.2 9 February 1890 and MI 6.6 28 May 1892 earthquakes, which were previously assumed to have occurred near the southern San Jacinto fault; a more likely location is in the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ). These events, and the 1992 M 7.3 Landers and 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine events, suggest that the ECSZ has been seismically active since at least the end of the nineteenth century. The earthquake catalog completeness level in the ECSZ is ???M 6.5 at least until the early twentieth century.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

MMI attenuation and historical earthquakes in the basin and range province of western North America

Earthquakes in central Nevada (1932-1959) were used to develop a modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) attenuation model for estimating moment magnitude M for earthquakes in the Basin and Range province of interior western North America. M is 7.4-7.5 for the 26 March 1872 Owens Valley, California, earthquake, in agreement with Beanland and Clark's (1994) M 7.6 that was estimated from geologic field observations. M is 7.5 for the 3 May 1887 Sonora, Mexico, earthquake, in agreement with Natali and Sbar's (1982) M 7.4 and Suter's (2006) M 7.5, both estimated from geologic field observations. MMI at sites in California for earthquakes in the Nevada Basin and Range apparently are not much affected by the Sierra Nevada except at sites near the Sierra Nevada where MMI is reduced. This reduction in MMI is consistent with a shadow zone produced by the root of the Sierra Nevada. In contrast, MMI assignments for earthquakes located in the eastern Sierra Nevada near the west margin of the Basin and Range are greater than predicted at sites in California. These higher MMI values may result from critical reflections due to layering near the base of the Sierra Nevada.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2005

Magnitude and location of historical earthquakes in Japan and implications for the 1855 Ansei Edo earthquake

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) intensity assignments IJMA are used to derive intensity attenuation models suitable for estimating the location and an intensity magnitude Mjma for historical earthquakes in Japan. The intensity for shallow crustal earthquakes on Honshu is equal to -1.89 + 1.42MJMA - 0.00887?? h - 1.66log??h, where MJMA is the JMA magnitude, ??h = (??2 + h2)1/2, and ?? and h are epicentral distance and focal depth (km), respectively. Four earthquakes located near the Japan Trench were used to develop a subducting plate intensity attenuation model where intensity is equal to -8.33 + 2.19MJMA -0.00550??h - 1.14 log ?? h. The IJMA assignments for the MJMA7.9 great 1923 Kanto earthquake on the Philippine Sea-Eurasian plate interface are consistent with the subducting plate model; Using the subducting plate model and 226 IJMA IV-VI assignments, the location of the intensity center is 25 km north of the epicenter, Mjma is 7.7, and MJMA is 7.3-8.0 at the 1?? confidence level. Intensity assignments and reported aftershock activity for the enigmatic 11 November 1855 Ansei Edo earthquake are consistent with an MJMA 7.2 Philippine Sea-Eurasian interplate source or Philippine Sea intraslab source at about 30 km depth. If the 1855 earthquake was a Philippine Sea-Eurasian interplate event, the intensity center was adjacent to and downdip of the rupture area of the great 1923 Kanto earthquake, suggesting that the 1855 and 1923 events ruptured adjoining sections of the Philippine Sea-Eurasian plate interface.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2005

Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

California↗
USGS2004

A physical model for strain accumulation in the San Francisco Bay region: Stress evolution since 1838

Understanding of the behavior of plate boundary zones has progressed to the point where reasonably comprehensive physical models can predict their evolution. The San Andreas fault system in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) is dominated by a few major faults whose behavior over about one earthquake cycle is fairly well understood. By combining the past history of large ruptures on SFBR faults with a recently proposed physical model of strain accumulation in the SFBR, we derive the evolution of regional stress from 1838 until the present. This effort depends on (1) an existing compilation of the source properties of historic and contemporary SFBR earthquakes based on documented shaking, geodetic data, and seismic data (Bakun, 1999) and (2) a few key parameters of a simple regional viscoelastic coupling model constrained by recent GPS data (Pollitz and Nyst, 2004). Although uncertainties abound in the location, magnitude, and fault geometries of historic ruptures and the physical model relies on gross simplifications, the resulting stress evolution model is sufficiently detailed to provide a useful window into the past stress history. In the framework of Coulomb failure stress, we find that virtually all M ??? 5.8 earthquakes prior to 1906 and M ??? 5.5 earthquakes after 1906 are consistent with stress triggering from previous earthquakes. These events systematically lie in zones of predicted stress concentration elevated 5-10 bars above the regional average. The SFBR is predicted to have emerged from the 1906 "shadow" in about 1980, consistent with the acceleration in regional seismicity at that time. The stress evolution model may be a reliable indicator of the most likely areas to experience M ??? 5.5 shocks in the future.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

Magnitudes and locations of the 1811-1812 New Madrid, Missouri, and the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquakes

We estimate locations and moment magnitudes M and their uncertainties for the three largest events in the 1811–1812 sequence near New Madrid, Missouri, and for the 1 September 1886 event near Charleston, South Carolina. The intensity magnitude M I , our preferred estimate of M , is 7.6 for the 16 December 1811 event that occurred in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) on the Bootheel lineament or on the Blytheville seismic zone. M I is 7.5 for the 23 January 1812 event for a location on the New Madrid north zone of the NMSZ and 7.8 for the 7 February 1812 event that occurred on the Reelfoot blind thrust of the NMSZ. Our preferred locations for these events are located on those NMSZ segments preferred by Johnston and Schweig ( 1996 ). Our estimates of M are 0.1–0.4 M units less than those of Johnston ( 1996b ) and 0.3–0.5 M units greater than those of Hough et al. ( 2000 ). M I is 6.9 for the 1 September 1886 event for a location at the Summerville–Middleton Place cluster of recent small earthquakes located about 30 km northwest of Charleston.

Missouri, South Carolina↗
USGS2004

Catalog of significant historical earthquakes in the Central United States

We use Modified Mercalli intensity assignments to estimate source locations and moment magnitude M for eighteen 19th-century and twenty early- 20th-century earthquakes in the central United States (CUS) for which estimates of M are otherwise not available. We use these estimates, and locations and M estimated elsewhere, to compile a catelog of significant historical earthquakes in the CUS. The 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes apparently dominated CUS seismicity in the first two decades of the 19th century. M5-6 earthquakes occurred in the New Madrid Seismic Zone in 1843 and 1878, but none have occurred since 1878. There has been persistent seismic activity in the Illinois Basin in southern Illinois and Indiana, with M > 5.0 earthquakes in 1895, 1909, 1917, 1968, and 1987. Four other M > 5.0 CUS historical earthquakes have occurred: in Kansas in 1867, in Nebraska in 1877, in Oklahoma in 1882, and in Kentucky in 1980.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2003

An empirical model for earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region, California, 2002-2031

The moment magnitude M 7.8 earthquake in 1906 profoundly changed the rate of seismic activity over much of northern California. The low rate of seismic activity in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) since 1906, relative to that of the preceding 55 yr, is often explained as a stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, existing elastic and visco-elastic models of stress change fail to fully account for the duration of the lowered rate of earthquake activity. We use variations in the rate of earthquakes as a basis for a simple empirical model for estimating the probability of M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the SFBR. The model preserves the relative magnitude distribution of sources predicted by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities' ( WGCEP, 1999 ; WGCEP, 2002 ) model of characterized ruptures on SFBR faults and is consistent with the occurrence of the four M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the region since 1838. When the empirical model is extrapolated 30 yr forward from 2002, it gives a probability of 0.42 for one or more M ≥6.7 in the SFBR. This result is lower than the probability of 0.5 estimated by WGCEP ( 1988 ), lower than the 30-yr Poisson probability of 0.60 obtained by WGCEP ( 1999 ) and WGCEP ( 2002 ), and lower than the 30-yr time-dependent probabilities of 0.67, 0.70, and 0.63 obtained by WGCEP ( 1990 ), WGCEP ( 1999 ), and WGCEP ( 2002 ), respectively, for the occurrence of one or more large earthquakes. This lower probability is consistent with the lack of adequate accounting for the 1906 stress-shadow in these earlier reports. The empirical model represents one possible approach toward accounting for the stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, the discrepancy between our result and those obtained with other modeling methods underscores the fact that the physics controlling the timing of earthquakes is not well understood. Hence, we advise against using the empirical model alone (or any other single probability model) for estimating the earthquake hazard and endorse the use of all credible earthquake probability models for the region, including the empirical model, with appropriate weighting, as was done in WGCEP ( 2002 ).

California↗