Ursel M. E. Schutte | Geology Reports

USGS2025

Cooling perspectives on the risk of pathogenic viruses from thawing permafrost

Climate change is inducing wide-scale permafrost thaw in the Arctic and subarctic, triggering concerns that long-dormant pathogens could reemerge from the thawing ground and initiate epidemics or pandemics. Viruses, as opposed to bacterial pathogens, garner particular interest because outbreaks cannot be controlled with antibiotics, though the effects can be mitigated by vaccines and newer antiviral drugs. To evaluate the potential hazards posed by viral pathogens emerging from thawing permafrost, we review information from a diverse range of disciplines. This includes efforts to recover infectious virus from human remains, studies on disease occurrence in polar animal populations, investigations into viral persistence and infectivity in permafrost, and assessments of human exposure to the enormous viral diversity present in the environment. Based on currently available knowledge, we conclude that the risk posed by viruses from thawing permafrost is no greater than viruses in other environments such as temperate soils and aquatic systems.

mSystems↗

USGS2022

Microbiome assembly in thawing permafrost and its feedbacks to climate

The physical and chemical changes that accompany permafrost thaw directly influence the microbial communities that mediate the decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter, leading to uncertainty in permafrost–climate feedbacks. Although changes to microbial metabolism and community structure are documented following thaw, the generality of post-thaw assembly patterns across permafrost soils of the world remains uncertain, limiting our ability to predict biogeochemistry and microbial community responses to climate change. Based on our review of the Arctic microbiome, permafrost microbiology, and community ecology, we propose that Assembly Theory provides a framework to better understand thaw-mediated microbiome changes and the implications for community function and climate feedbacks. This framework posits that the prevalence of deterministic or stochastic processes indicates whether the community is well-suited to thrive in changing environmental conditions. We predict that on a short timescale and following high-disturbance thaw (e.g., thermokarst), stochasticity dominates post-thaw microbiome assembly, suggesting that functional predictions will be aided by detailed information about the microbiome. At a longer timescale and lower-intensity disturbance (e.g., active layer deepening), deterministic processes likely dominate, making environmental parameters sufficient for predicting function. We propose that the contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes to post-thaw microbiome assembly depends on the characteristics of the thaw disturbance, as well as characteristics of the microbial community, such as the ecological and phylogenetic breadth of functional guilds, their functional redundancy, and biotic interactions. These propagate across space and time, potentially providing a means for predicting the microbial forcing of greenhouse gas feedbacks to global climate change.

Global Change Biology↗