Geology topics

Todd J. Hawbaker

Publications and source records attributed to Todd J. Hawbaker.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Tracking decadal changes in frequent fire activity across the southeastern U.S. (2000-2019): Insights from Southeast FireMap

Background The dominant natural habitats in the southeastern United States depend on frequent fire ignited by humans or lightning. However, fire activity has sharply declined in the region since the early 1900s, and reduced fire activity has degraded natural habitats and increased wildfire risk. Identifying changes in fire use during recent decades is necessary to guide the conservation of fire-dependent wildlife, management of hazardous fuels, and identify areas where increased fire use could improve ecosystem resilience. To address this need, we created the Southeast FireMap dataset by fine-tuning the United States Geological Survey’s Landsat Burned Area product to track burned area, and provide a fire history across the southeastern United States. We used the Southeast FireMap data to quantify changes in areas frequently burned, as measured by areas with multiple burns within a decade. We compared the periods 2000–2009 and 2010–2019 to identify where frequently burned area is increasing or declining. We examined patterns of change across ownership, land cover, and soil orders to provide geographic context, and we considered future implications of these changes for land use categories of ecological interest. Results Frequently burned area increased between decades across the region. This increase occurred on both private and public lands, in upland vegetation types, and on upland soils, though these increases were moderately offset by decreased wetland burning and its associated soil orders. However, changes varied among states, with burned area decreasing in some states. Conclusions The overall increase in frequently burned area across the region reflects a summation of positive and negative shifts associated with specific combinations of physiography, ownership class, and government jurisdiction. Southeast FireMap marks a significant advancement in our ability to identify changes in prescribed burning within the geographic and cultural contexts that will likely influence the complex future of fire in the region.

southeastern United States↗

USGS2026

Variability and consistency in wildfire susceptibility: Insights from a national compilation

Background Wildfire risk in the United States is rising and remains a land management priority. The quantitative wildfire risk assessment (QWRA) framework integrates fuels, topography, weather and values at risk to estimate the potential change in value from wildfire. Within this, response functions (RFs) represent how values respond to fire intensity. These are often based on expert judgment, but variation across assessments is unclear. Aims This study uses data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Clearinghouse to characterize consistency and variation across categories and contexts. Methods We applied descriptive statistics to summarize RFs, using tables, box-and-whisker plots and heat maps stratified by highly valued resource or asset (HVRA) category and spatial scale. Key results RFs and value definitions vary, especially for ecosystem-related resources. Some functions, such as for buildings in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), translate well across contexts, while others require more input. Conclusions Some functions are broadly transferable, while others need customization. This analysis provides references and starting points for improvement to RFs in QWRAs. Interpretations Expanding the clearinghouse and dataset and building more transparency in expert elicitation can build trust among communities, agencies and end-users, and can support efficient use of limited resources to mitigate wildfire risk.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

USGS2026

Adapting wildfire risk assessment for a Tribal landscape: Mount Baldy and the Fort Apache Reservation in Arizona

Context The White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation in Arizona manages their natural and cultural resources within a perpetually wildfire-risky environment. The Tribe’s values also extend beyond those of typical risk assessments to include the importance of cultural activities and sites, various recreational and revenue values, and culturally significant species. Objectives We worked with the Tribe to characterize a sample of these values and adapt them for use in a widely used risk assessment framework as part of an ongoing effort to improve wildfire mitigation and management with Tribes. Methods We used a three-factor experimental design to conduct a sensitivity analysis related to the treatment of values included in the risk assessment. It focused on (1) the inclusion of relative importance or not, (2) the inclusion of relative extent or not, and (3) absolute versus scaled net value change for each value. Results Our results demonstrate a pattern of risk related to the values expressed by the Tribe with a focus on the Mount Baldy landscape, but the contributions of individual values to an aggregate measure of risk vary. Conclusions Our assessments demonstrate an opportunity to incorporate Tribal values. Different depictions of risk can be used to accommodate diverse perspectives of decision-makers or managers, the values they are considering, and whether or not they are approaching risk in an emergency response or preparedness frame.

Arizona↗

USGS2025

Rising rates of wildfire building destruction in the conterminous United States

Many regions of the world have seen an increase in highly destructive wildfires, driven by well-documented increases in burned area and growth of housing in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), which exposes more homes to fire. However, it is unclear whether wildfires are also becoming more destructive due to changes in wildfire behavior or in the development patterns of exposed communities. Here, we assessed trends in wildfire building exposure and destruction rates in the conterminous United States from 2002 to 2022. We mapped destroyed and surviving buildings within 100 m of all wildfires that destroyed 10 or more buildings (n = 362) and assessed trends relative to major ecoregions and vegetation types. We used logistic regression to assess relationships between destruction rates and landscape factors. We found that 10% of exposed buildings were destroyed in 2002–2012, but this percentage increased to 32% in 2013–2022. This increase was largely due to greater building exposure in evergreen forests in the northwestern United States, where exposed buildings were more than 3.4 times as likely to be destroyed as those in grass and shrublands. However, annual destruction rates also significantly increased in all other vegetation types and were correlated with development type, weather, and burn severity. These results indicate that increasing wildfire destruction in the United States has resulted not only from increased exposure but from rising rates of building destruction, potentially indicating more extreme wildfire behavior. This finding underscores the need to better understand how fuel management, community planning, and hardening buildings can reduce vulnerability.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2025

Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous U.S.

The land carbon sink of the conterminous United States was evaluated using a bottom-up modeling framework and 30-meter land change data from 1985 to 2020. This cross-scale, cross-landscape, and cross-system approach tracked fractional land cover changes and applied regional model calibration. Results show average terrestrial and aquatic carbon sinks of +110 ± 37 and +19 ± 0.5 teragrams of carbon per year, respectively. The terrestrial carbon sink, showing no clear trend, peaked in the 1990s, with more years as a carbon source since 2000, contradicting recent national and global studies. Land change had the largest impact (−70 ± 5.5 teragrams of carbon per year), exceeding impacts of climate (−33 ± 48 teragrams of carbon per year), wildfire (−7.7 ± 2.4 teragrams of carbon per year), and erosion transport (−1.9 ± 0.13 teragrams of carbon per year). The positive CO2 fertilization effect (+69 ± 12 teragrams of carbon per year) was insufficient to maintain the carbon sink strength. Our framework reveals key paths of carbon loss, with implications for carbon budget and energy policies in the United States and beyond.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2020

Estimating burn severity and carbon emissions from a megafire in boreal forests of China

Wildfires, especially those of large size, worsen air quality and alter the carbon cycle through combustion of large quantities of biomass and release of carbon into the atmosphere. The Black Dragon fire, which occurred in 1987 in the boreal forests of China is among the top five of such megafires ever recorded in the world. With over 30 years of accumulation of data and availability of new greenhouse gas emission accounting methods, carbon emissions from this megafire can now be estimated with improved precision and greater spatial resolution. To do this, we combined field and remote sensing data to map four burn severity classes and calculated combustion efficiency in terms of the biomass immediately consumed in the fire. Results of the study showed that 1.30 million hectares burned and 52% of that area burned with high severity. The emitted carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e), accounted for approximately 10% of total fossil fuel emissions from China in 1987, along with CO (2%–3% of annual anthropogenic CO emissions from China) and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) contributing to the atmospheric pollutants. Our study provides an important basis for carbon emission estimation and understanding the impacts of megafires.

Science of the Total Environment↗