Geology topics

Todd J. Brinkman

Publications and source records attributed to Todd J. Brinkman.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2015

Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America

We synthesized an expert review of climate change implications for hydroecological and terrestrial ecological systems in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America. Our synthesis is based on an analysis of projected temperature, precipitation, and snowfall stratified by eight biogeoclimatic provinces and three vegetation zones. Five IPCC CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are the basis for projections of mean annual temperature increasing from a current average (1961–1990) of 3.2 °C to 4.9–6.9 °C (5 GCM range; RCP4.5 scenario) or 6.4–8.7 °C (RCP8.5), mean annual precipitation increasing from 3130 mm to 3210–3400 mm (3–9 % increase) or 3320–3690 mm (6–18 % increase), and total precipitation as snow decreasing from 1200 mm to 940–720 mm (22–40 % decrease) or 720–500 mm (40–58 % decrease) by the 2080s (2071–2100; 30-year normal period). These projected changes are anticipated to result in a cascade of ecosystem-level effects including: increased frequency of flooding and rain-on-snow events; an elevated snowline and reduced snowpack; changes in the timing and magnitude of stream flow, freshwater thermal regimes, and riverine nutrient exports; shrinking alpine habitats; altitudinal and latitudinal expansion of lowland and subalpine forest types; shifts in suitable habitat boundaries for vegetation and wildlife communities; adverse effects on species with rare ecological niches or limited dispersibility; and shifts in anadromous salmon distribution and productivity. Our collaborative synthesis of potential impacts highlights the coupling of social and ecological systems that characterize the region as well as a number of major information gaps to help guide assessments of future conditions and adaptive capacity.

Alaska, British Columbia↗

USGS2014

Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer ( O. hemionus ) in California, and 37 pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly versus daily) for estimating survival.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

Alaska;Yukon↗

USGS2013

Influence of landscape characteristics on retention of expandable radiocollars on young ungulates

One tool used for wildlife management is the deployment of radiocollars to gain knowledge of animal populations. Understanding the influence of individual factors (e.g., species, collar characteristics) and landscape characteristics (e.g., forested cover, shrubs, and fencing) on retention of expandable radiocollars for ungulates is important for obtaining empirical data on factors influencing ecology of young-of-the-year ungulates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 198 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns, 142 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) fawns, and 73 mule deer (O. hemionus) fawns in South Dakota, Minnesota, and California, USA. We documented 72 (36.4%), 8 (5.6%), and 7 (9.6%) premature (2, SE = 0.1, n = 75) compared with areas where fawns shed collars (x = 3.24 km/km 2 , SE = 0.1, n = 56) prior to 270 days. Researchers of fawns should consider that radiocollars can be shed prematurely when estimating desired sample size to yield a suitable strength of inference about some natural process of interest.

California;Minnesota;South Dakota↗

USGS2013

Effects of plant phenology and vertical height on accuracy of radio-telemetry locations

The use of very high frequency (VHF) radio-telemetry remains wide-spread in studies of wildlife ecology and management. However, few studies have evaluated the influence of vegetative obstruction on accuracy in differing habitats with varying transmitter types and heights. Using adult and fawn collars at varying heights above the ground (0, 33, 66 and 100 cm) to simulate activities (bedded, feeding and standing) and ages (neonate, juvenile and adult) of deer Odocoileus spp., we collected 5,767 bearings and estimated 1,424 locations (28-30 for each of 48 subsamples) in three habitat types (pasture, grassland and forest), during two stages of vegetative growth (spring and late summer). Bearing error was approximately twice as large at a distance of 900 m for fawn (9.9°) than for adult deer collars (4.9°). Of 12 models developed to explain the variation in location error, the analysis of covariance model (HT*D + C*D + HT*TBA + C*TBA) containing interactions of height of collar above ground (HT), collar type (C), vertical height of understory vegetation (D) and tree basal area (TBA) was the best model (w i = 0.92) and explained ∼ 71% of the variation in location error. Location error was greater for both collar types at 0 and 33 cm above the ground compared to 66 and 100 cm above the ground; however, location error was less for adult than fawn collars. Vegetation metrics influenced location error, which increased with greater vertical height of understory vegetation and tree basal area. Further, interaction of vegetation metrics and categorical variables indicated significant effects on location error. Our results indicate that researchers need to consider study objectives, life history of the study animal, signal strength of collar (collar type), distance from transmitter to receiver, topographical changes in elevation, habitat composition and season when designing telemetry protocols. Bearing distances in forested habitat should be decreased (approximately 23% in our study) compared to bearing distances in open habitat to maintain a consistent bearing error across habitats. Additionally, we believe that field biologists monitoring neonate ungulates for habitat selection should rely on visual locations rather than using VHF-collars and triangulation.

South Dakota↗