Geology Reports⌕ Search

Geology topics

Timothy J. Durbin

Publications and source records attributed to Timothy J. Durbin.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS1983

Application of Gauss algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation to the identification of aquifer parameters

The Gauss optimization technique can be used to identify the parameters of a model of a groundwater system for which the parameter identification problem is formulated as a least squares comparison between the response of the prototype and the response of the model. Unavoidable uncertainty in the true stress on the prototype and in the true response of the prototype to that stress will introduce errors into the parameter identification problem. A method for evaluating errors in the predictions of future water levels due to errors in recharge estimates was demonstrated. The method involves a Monte Carlo simulation of the parameter identification problem and of the prediction problem. The steps in the method are: (1) to prescribe the distribution of the recharge estimates; (2) to use this distribution to generate random sets of recharge estimates; (3) to use the Gauss optimization technique to identify the corresponding set of parameter estimates for each set of recharge estimates; (4) to make the corresponding set of hydraulic head predictions for each set of parameter estimates; and (5) to examine the distribution of hydraulic head predictions and to draw appropriate conclusions. Similarly, the method can be used independently or simultaneously to estimate the effect on hydraulic head predictions of errors in the measured water levels that are used in the parameter identification problem. The fit of the model to the data that are used to identify parameters is not a good indicator of these errors. A Monte Carlo simulation of the parameter identification problem can be used, however, to evaluate the effects on water level predictions of errors in the recharge (and pumpage) data used in the parameter identification problem. (Lantz-PTT)

Open-File Report↗
USGS1978

Development of a relation for steady-state pumping rate for Eagle Valley ground-water basin, Nevada

Eagle Valley is a topographic and ground-water basin in the west-central area of Nevada. The demand for water in the valley is approaching the limits of the locally available resource, which is the water yield of 9,000 acre-feet per year from the adjacent mountain areas. The steady-state pumping rate from the ground-water basin is defined as the rate that just balances ground-water recharge and discharge. The recharge of water after agricultural or municipal use is a contribution toward overall ground-water recharge and, therefore, to the steady-state pumping rate. However, because the recharge factors are different for municipal and agricultural use, the total quantity of ground-water recharge from the beneficial use of water depends on the type of water use. Consequently, the steady-state pumping rate depends on the type of water use.

Nevada↗
USGS1978

Well-response model of the confined area, Bunker Hill ground-water basin, San Bernardino County, California

The Bunker Hill ground-water basin, in the vicinity of San Bernardino, Calif., is being artificially recharged with imported water. Current and future artificial recharge of the basin may cause the potentiometric surface in an area of confined ground water to rise above land surface and water to flow from uncapped and unplugged wells. This could cause damage to structures where the soil becomes waterlogged and where buried wells begin to flow beneath the structures. A well-response model was used to generate a series of water-level hydrographs representing the response of the ground-water basin to six possible combinations of conditions for each well; one pumping rate, two artificial-recharge rate, and three natural-recharge rates. Inflow to the ground-water basin exceeds outflow for all tested combinations. According to model predictions, the accumulation of stored ground water resulting from the excess of inflow is sufficient to cause the water level in the selected wells to rise above land surface for all but one of the combinations of conditions tested. Water levels in wells are predicted to rise above the land surface as early as 1981 for the combination with the greatest excess of inflow. (Woodard-USGS)

California↗
USGS1974

Digital simulation of the effects of urbanization on runoff in the upper Santa Ana Valley, California

The Stanford Watershed Model was used to simulate the effects of urbanization on the discharge from five drainage basins in the upper Santa Ana Valley, an area with an average annual precipitation of 15 inches. The drainage basins ranged in size from 3.72 to 83.4 square miles. Using the model, synthetic records of streamflow for each basin were generated to represent various degrees of urban development. Examination of the synthetic records indicated that urbanization has the following effects on streamflow in the area: Average annual runoff from a drainage basin with an effective impervious area of 10 percent of the drainage area is approximately 2 inches, and increases by 1 inch for each increase in effective impervious cover equal to 10 percent of the drainage area. About 30 percent of a fully urbanized area is effectively impervious. Urbanization can increase the magnitude of peak discharge and daily mean discharge with a recurrence interval of 2 years by a factor of three to six. Peak discharges and daily mean discharges that have recurrence intervals greater than a limiting value ranging from 50 to 200 years or more are little affected by urbanization.

California↗
USGS1974

Hydrologic analysis of the Mojave River, California, using a mathematical model

The channel of the Mojave Rive'r in California is normally dry and is highly permeable over much of its length, and large quantities of water from natural floodflows in the channel infiltrate through the channel bed to the underlying ground-water body. From 1930 to 1972 only 18 floods at The Forks produced flow at Barstow, 55 miles (88 kilometres) downstream from The Forks. Peak discharges at Barstow from these floods ranged from 180 cubic feet per second (5 cubic metres per second) in 1967 to 64,300 cubic feet per second (1,820 cubic metres per second) in 1938. Total stream infiltration, primarily as ground-water recharge, ranged from 3,600 acre-feet (4.40 cubic hectometres) in 1935 to 50,400 acre-feet (62.1 cubic hectometres) in 1969 between The Forks and Victorville and from about 7,000 acre-feet (8.61 cubic hectometres) in 1935 to 128,000 acre-feet (158 cubic hectometres) in 1969 between Victorville and Barstow. The Mojave Water Agency is considering the use of the channel of the river to convey water imported from northern California through Silverwood Reservoir (5 miles or 8 kilometres upstream from The Forks) downstream to the Barstow area. The imported water would be used to replenish aquifers underlying the Barstow area. A mathematical model was developed that simulates the advance of discharge down the initially dry channel of the Mojave River, and the model was used to evaluate the potential of the channel to move imported water downstream to Barstow. Results of simulation by modeling indicate that the channel of the Mojave River can be used to efficiently convey imported water to Barstow only when the absorption capacity of the channel has been reduced by an antecedent flood. The volume of imported water that can reach Barstow depends on the volume and duration of the antecedent flood, on the volume of imported water released trom Silverwood Reservoir, and on the rate at which imported water is released. A release of 20,000 acre-feet (24.6 cubic hectometres) of imported water may produce at Barstow a maximum volume of imported water of 2,500, 8,000, 11,000, or 15,000 acre-feet (3.08, 9.86, 13.6, or 18.4 cubic hectometres) for a release rate of 500, 750, 1,000, or 2,000 cubic feet per second (14.2, 21.2, 28.3, or 56.8 cubic metres per second). For planning purposes in evaluating some of the hydraulic effects of recharge on the aquifer, a simulation of the aquifer near the Barstow area using an electrical analog model showed that a combination of no pumping and a yearly recharge of 5,000 acre-feet (6.17 cubic hectometres) for 10 years could raise ground-water levels at least 10 feet (3 metres) over an area of about 10 square miles (25 square kilometres). To obtain the water-level changes due to the combined effects of pumping and recharge, the above water-level changes should be superimposed on the separate effects of pumping.

California↗