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Timothy J Assal

Publications and source records attributed to Timothy J Assal.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Spatial scale dependence of error in fractional component cover maps

Geospatial products such as fractional vegetation cover maps often report overall, pixel-wise accuracy, but decision-making with these products often occurs at coarser scales. As such, data users often desire guidance on the appropriate spatial scale to apply these data. We worked toward establishing this guidance by assessing RCMAP (Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection) accuracy relative to a series of high-resolution predictions of component cover. We scale the 2-m and RCMAP predictions to various focal window sizes scales ranging from 30 to 1 500 m using focal averaging. We also evaluated variation in scaling effects on error at ecoregion and pasture (mean area of 1 050 ha) scales. Our results demonstrate increased accuracy at broader windows, across all components, and most increases in accuracy level off at ∼200–600 m scales. At the scale with highest accuracy, cross-component average correlation ( r ) increased by 6.5%, and root mean square error (RMSE) was reduced 46.4% relative to 30-m scale data. Scaling-related improvements to accuracy were greatest in components such as shrub and tree with more spatially heterogeneous cover and in ecoregions with more spatially heterogenous cover. When components were aggregated at the pasture scale, r increased 10% and RMSE decreased 34.3% on average relative to the 30-m scale. Our results provide empirical data on the scale dependence of error, which fractional cover data users may consider alongside their needs when using these data. Although the general principle remains that remotely sensed products are intended to address landscape-scale questions, our analysis indicates that applying data at finer than landscape spatial scales and grouping even a handful of pixels resulted in lowered error compared to pixel-level comparisons. Our results quantify the trade-offs between data granularity and error related to scale for fractional vegetation cover.

western United States

Prioritizing landscapes for grassland bird conservation with hierarchical community models

Context Given widespread population declines of birds breeding in North American grasslands, management that sustains wildlife while supporting rancher livelihoods is needed. However, management effects vary across landscapes, and identifying areas with the greatest potential bird response to conservation is a pressing research need. Objectives We developed a hierarchical modeling approach to study grassland bird response to habitat factors at multiple scales and levels. We then identified areas to prioritize for implementing a bird-friendly ranching program. Methods Using bird survey data from grassland passerine species and 175 sites (2009–2018) across northeast Wyoming, USA, we fit hierarchical community distance sampling models and evaluated drivers of site-level density and regional-level distribution. We then created spatially-explicit predictions of bird density and distribution for the study area and predicted outcomes from pasture-scale management scenarios. Results Cumulative overlap of species distributions revealed areas with greater potential community response to management. Within each species’ potential regional-level distribution, the grassland bird community generally responded negatively to cropland cover and vegetation productivity at local scales (up to 10 km of survey sites). Multiple species declined with increasing bare ground and litter cover, shrub cover, and grass height measured within sites. Conclusions We demonstrated a novel approach to multi-scale and multi-level prioritization for grassland bird conservation based on hierarchical community models and extensive population monitoring. Pasture-scale management scenarios also suggested the examined community may benefit from less bare ground cover and shorter grass height. Our approach could be extended to other bird guilds in this region and beyond.

Wyoming

Wildfire-driven forest conversion in western North American landscapes

Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.

Alaska, Alberta, Arizona, British Columbia, Califo