Geology topics

Tim Melbourne

Publications and source records attributed to Tim Melbourne.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2016

Demonstration of the Cascadia G‐FAST geodetic earthquake early warning system for the Nisqually, Washington, earthquake

A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is currently in development in the Pacific Northwest. We have taken a two‐stage approach to EEW: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong‐motion data with the Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) seismic early warning package and (2) the triggering of geodetic modeling modules using Global Navigation Satellite Systems data that help provide robust estimates of large‐magnitude earthquakes. In this article we demonstrate the performance of the latter, the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (G‐FAST) geodetic early warning system, using simulated displacements for the 2001 M w 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We test the timing and performance of the two G‐FAST source characterization modules, peak ground displacement scaling, and Centroid Moment Tensor‐driven finite‐fault‐slip modeling under ideal, latent, noisy, and incomplete data conditions. We show good agreement between source parameters computed by G‐FAST with previously published and postprocessed seismic and geodetic results for all test cases and modeling modules, and we discuss the challenges with integration into the U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert EEW system.

Washington↗

USGS2015

Earthquake forewarning in the Cascadia region

This report, prepared for the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), is intended as a step toward improving communications about earthquake hazards between information providers and users who coordinate emergency-response activities in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest. NEPEC charged a subcommittee of scientists with writing this report about forewarnings of increased probabilities of a damaging earthquake. We begin by clarifying some terminology; a “prediction” refers to a deterministic statement that a particular future earthquake will or will not occur. In contrast to the 0- or 100-percent likelihood of a deterministic prediction, a “forecast” describes the probability of an earthquake occurring, which may range from >0 to <100 percent. When the time window is short (days to months) and the forecast is formulated for operational utility, this term may be “operational earthquake forecasting.” The subcommittee considered short-term forecasts only, herein referred to as “forewarnings,” but not their formulation into messages or their applications, which will be addressed by NEPEC in subsequent activities. The subcommittee considered “direct” and “indirect” forewarnings. Direct forewarnings originate with observed changes in geologic processes or conditions, which may include Increased rates of M >4 earthquakes on the plate interface north of the Mendocino region Changes in shallow seismicity patterns Increased rates of moderate earthquakes within the subducting plate Changes in the pattern of slow slip on the plate interface and other major faults Indirect forewarnings are based largely on model predictions of increased earthquake-occurrence probabilities. In this context, “models” refers to simulations of the processes believed to affect earthquake occurrence, as implemented in computer software, laboratory experiments, or some analog natural system. These indirect forewarnings likely will be more uncertain and difficult to interpret than direct forewarnings. This report also highlights the challenges of assessing the significance of forewarnings, which mostly will be extraordinary events with little or no historical precedent in the Cascadia region.

Cascadia region↗

USGS2001

Global Positioning System (GPS) survey of Augustine Volcano, Alaska, August 3-8, 2000: data processing, geodetic coordinates and comparison with prior geodetic surveys

Between August 3 and 8,2000,the Alaska Volcano Observatory completed a Global Positioning System (GPS) survey at Augustine Volcano, Alaska. Augustine is a frequently active calcalkaline volcano located in the lower portion of Cook Inlet (fig. 1), with reported eruptions in 1812, 1882, 1909?, 1935, 1964, 1976, and 1986 (Miller et al., 1998). Geodetic measurements using electronic and optical surveying techniques (EDM and theodolite) were begun at Augustine Volcano in 1986. In 1988 and 1989, an island-wide trilateration network comprising 19 benchmarks was completed and measured in its entirety (Power and Iwatsubo, 1998). Partial GPS surveys of the Augustine Island geodetic network were completed in 1992 and 1995; however, neither of these surveys included all marks on the island.Additional GPS measurements of benchmarks A5 and A15 (fig. 2) were made during the summers of 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1996. The goals of the 2000 GPS survey were to:1) re-measure all existing benchmarks on Augustine Island using a homogeneous set of GPS equipment operated in a consistent manner, 2) add measurements at benchmarks on the western shore of Cook Inlet at distances of 15 to 25 km, 3) add measurements at an existing benchmark (BURR) on Augustine Island that was not previously surveyed, and 4) add additional marks in areas of the island thought to be actively deforming. The entire survey resulted in collection of GPS data at a total of 24 sites (fig. 1 and 2). In this report we describe the methods of GPS data collection and processing used at Augustine during the 2000 survey. We use this data to calculate coordinates and elevations for all 24 sites surveyed. Data from the 2000 survey is then compared toelectronic and optical measurements made in 1988 and 1989. This report also contains a general description of all marks surveyed in 2000 and photographs of all new marks established during the 2000 survey (Appendix A).

Alaska↗