Geology topics

Thorsten Wagener

Publications and source records attributed to Thorsten Wagener.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2017

A software tool to assess uncertainty in transient-storage model parameters using Monte Carlo simulations

Researchers and practitioners alike often need to understand and characterize how water and solutes move through a stream in terms of the relative importance of in-stream and near-stream storage and transport processes. In-channel and subsurface storage processes are highly variable in space and time and difficult to measure. Storage estimates are commonly obtained using transient-storage models (TSMs) of the experimentally obtained solute-tracer test data. The TSM equations represent key transport and storage processes with a suite of numerical parameters. Parameter values are estimated via inverse modeling, in which parameter values are iteratively changed until model simulations closely match observed solute-tracer data. Several investigators have shown that TSM parameter estimates can be highly uncertain. When this is the case, parameter values cannot be used reliably to interpret stream-reach functioning. However, authors of most TSM studies do not evaluate or report parameter certainty. Here, we present a software tool linked to the One-dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage (OTIS) model that enables researchers to conduct uncertainty analyses via Monte-Carlo parameter sampling and to visualize uncertainty and sensitivity results. We demonstrate application of our tool to 2 case studies and compare our results to output obtained from more traditional implementation of the OTIS model. We conclude by suggesting best practices for transient-storage modeling and recommend that future applications of TSMs include assessments of parameter certainty to support comparisons and more reliable interpretations of transport processes.

Freshwater Science↗

USGS2015

Accelerating advances in continental domain hydrologic modeling

In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives. Those include: (1) creating new incentives and infrastructure to report and share model inputs, outputs, and parameters in data services and open access, machine-independent formats for model replication or reanalysis; (2) ensuring that hydrologic models have: sufficient complexity to represent the dominant physical processes and adequate representation of anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle, a process-based approach to model parameter estimation, and appropriate parameterizations to represent large-scale fluxes and scaling behavior; (3) maintaining a balance between model complexity and data availability as well as uncertainties; and (4) quantifying and communicating significant advancements toward these modeling goals.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2013

Variations in surface water-ground water interactions along a headwater mountain stream : comparisons between transient storage and water balance analyses

The accumulation of discharge along a stream valley is frequently assumed to be the primary control on solute transport processes. Relationships of both increasing and decreasing transient storage, and decreased gross losses of stream water have been reported with increasing discharge; however, we have yet to validate these relationships with extensive ﬁeld study. We conducted transient storage and mass recovery analyses of artiﬁcial tracer studies completed for 28 contiguous 100 m reaches along a stream valley, repeated under four base-ﬂow conditions. We calculated net and gross gains and losses, temporal moments of tracer breakthrough curves, and best ﬁt transient storage model parameters (with uncertainty estimates) for 106 individual tracer injections. Results supported predictions that gross loss of channel water would decrease with increased discharge. However, results showed no clear relationship between discharge and transient storage, and further analysis of solute tracer methods demonstrated that the lack of this relation may be explained by uncertainty and equiﬁnality in the transient storage model framework. Furthermore, comparison of water balance and transient storage approaches reveals complications in clear interpretation of either method due to changes in advective transport time, which sets a the temporal boundary separating transient storage and channel water balance. We have little ability to parse this limitation of solute tracer methods from the physical processes we seek to study. We suggest the combined analysis of both transient storage and channel water balance more completely characterizes transport of solutes in stream networks than can be inferred from either method alone.

Montana↗

USGS2008

Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE): A modular framework to diagnose differences between hydrological models

The problems of identifying the most appropriate model structure for a given problem and quantifying the uncertainty in model structure remain outstanding research challenges for the discipline of hydrology. Progress on these problems requires understanding of the nature of differences between models. This paper presents a methodology to diagnose differences in hydrological model structures: the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE). FUSE was used to construct 79 unique model structures by combining components of 4 existing hydrological models. These new models were used to simulate streamflow in two of the basins used in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): the Guadalupe River (Texas) and the French Broad River (North Carolina). Results show that the new models produced simulations of streamflow that were at least as good as the simulations produced by the models that participated in the MOPEX experiment. Our initial application of the FUSE method for the Guadalupe River exposed relationships between model structure and model performance, suggesting that the choice of model structure is just as important as the choice of model parameters. However, further work is needed to evaluate model simulations using multiple criteria to diagnose the relative importance of model structural differences in various climate regimes and to assess the amount of independent information in each of the models. This work will be crucial to both identifying the most appropriate model structure for a given problem and quantifying the uncertainty in model structure. To facilitate research on these problems, the FORTRAN‐90 source code for FUSE is available upon request from the lead author.

Water Resources Research↗