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Thorne Lay

Publications and source records attributed to Thorne Lay.

10 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

A 700-year rupture sequence of great eastern Aleutian earthquakes from tsunami modeling of stratigraphic records

Great Aleutian underthrusting earthquakes produced destructive tsunamis impacting Hawaiʻi in 1946 and 1957. Prior modeling of the 1957 tsunami deposit and runup records on eastern Aleutian and Hawaiian Islands jointly with tide-gauge observations across the Pacific Ocean constrained a rupture model with shallow slip up to 26 m along 600 km of the plate boundary. Here we implement this modeling approach to older deposits and show alternating deep and shallow megathrust slip up to 26, 32, and 22 m for great earthquakes along the same segment in the 18 th , 15 th , and 14 th centuries. All three modeled prehistoric Aleutian earthquakes produce tsunami inundation in Hawaiʻi with the most severe, 14 th century event having impacts exceeding the 1957 event. The along-dip variability of these four ruptures spanning seven centuries provides insights on earthquake cycles for engineering design and hazard assessment. The 15 th century and 1957 rupture models provide evidence for recurrence of tsunami earthquakes, which can produce disproportionately large tsunamis for a given moment magnitude due to reduced rigidity in the shallow megathrust. The 14 th and 18 th century events likely ruptured deeper regions that did not slip in 1957, suggesting potential for corresponding deeper failure in the next great eastern Aleutian earthquake.

Alaska, Hawaii↗
USGS2024

A great tsunami earthquake component of the 1957 Aleutian Islands earthquake

The great 1957 Aleutian Islands earthquake ruptured ∼1200 km of the plate boundary along the Aleutian subduction zone and produced a destructive tsunami across Hawaiʻi. Early seismic and tsunami analyses indicated that large megathrust fault slip was concentrated in the western Aleutian Islands, but tsunami waves generated by slip in the west cannot explain the large observed runup in Hawaiʻi far to the southeast. Recently mapped 1957 geologic deposits on eastern Aleutian Islands suggest occurrence of very large nearby slip. Jointly modeling tsunami runup along the eastern Aleutian and Hawaiian Islands together with tide gauge recordings across the Pacific resolves 12-26 m shallow slip along 600 km of the eastern Aleutian Islands in addition to modest, deeper western slip inferred from seismic records. The eastern near-trench slip results in an M W 8.3-8.6 tsunami earthquake component of the M W 8.6-8.8 rupture, comparable in size to the adjacent 1946 Aleutian tsunami earthquake to the east. The reexamination of the 1957 rupture confirms the tsunami hazards posed by the eastern Aleutian subduction zone to Hawaiʻi and lays the groundwork for investigation of large prehistoric earthquakes through modeling tsunami runup inferred from stratigraphic observations to constrain their rupture processes.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Solid Earth–atmosphere interaction forces during the 15 January 2022 Tonga eruption

Rapid venting of volcanic material during the 15 January 2022 Tonga eruption generated impulsive downward reaction forces on the Earth of ~2.0 × 10 13 N that radiated seismic waves observed throughout the planet, with ~25 s source bursts persisting for ~4.5 hours. The force time history is determined by analysis of teleseismic P waves and Rayleigh waves with periods approximately <50 s, providing insight into the overall volcanic eruption process. The atmospheric acoustic-gravity Lamb wave expanding from the eruption produced broadband ground motions when transiting land, along with driven and conventional tsunami waves. Atmospheric standing acoustic waves near the source produced oscillatory peak forces as large as 4 × 10 12 N, exciting resonant solid Earth Rayleigh wave motions at frequencies of 3.7 and 4.6 mHz.

Science Advances↗
USGS2021

Seismic and geodetic analysis of rupture characteristics of the 2020 Mw 6.5 Monte Cristo Range, Nevada, earthquake

The largest earthquake since 1954 to strike the state of Nevada, United States, ruptured on 15 May 2020 along the Monte Cristo range of west‐central Nevada. The M w 6.5 event involved predominantly left‐lateral strike‐slip faulting with minor normal components on three aligned east–west‐trending faults that vary in strike by 23°. The kinematic rupture process is determined by joint inversion of Global Navigation Satellite Systems displacements, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data, regional strong motions, and teleseismic P and SH waves, with the three‐fault geometry being constrained by InSAR surface deformation observations, surface ruptures, and relocated aftershock distributions. The average rupture velocity is 1.5 km/s⁠ , with a peak slip of ∼1.6 m and a ∼20 s rupture duration. The seismic moment is 6.9×10 18 N·m⁠ . Complex surface deformation is observed near the fault junction, with a deep near‐vertical fault and a southeast‐dipping fault at shallow depth on the western segment, along which normal‐faulting aftershocks are observed. There is a shallow slip deficit in the Nevada ruptures, probably due to the immature fault system. The causative faults had not been previously identified and are located near the transition from the Walker Lane belt to the Basin and Range province. The east–west geometry of the system is consistent with the eastward extension of the Mina Deflection of the Walker Lane north of the White Mountains.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2021

Exploring GPS observations of postseismic deformation following the 2012 MW7.8 Haida Gwaii and 2013 MW7.5 Craig, Alaska Earthquakes: Implications for viscoelastic Earth structure

The Queen Charlotte-Fairweather Fault (QC-FF) system off the coast of British Columbia and southeast Alaska is a highly active dextral strike-slip plate boundary that accommodates ∼50 mm/yr of relative motion between the Pacific and North America plates. Nine M W ≥ 6.7 earthquakes have occurred along the QC-FF system since 1910, including a M S (G-R) 8.1 event in 1949. Two recent earthquakes, the October 28, 2012 Haida Gwaii ( M W 7.8) and January 5, 2013 Craig, Alaska ( M W 7.5) events, produced postseismic transient deformation that was recorded in the motions of 25 nearby continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) stations. Here, we use 5+ yr of cGPS measurements to characterize the underlying mechanisms of postseismic deformation and to constrain the viscosity structure of the upper mantle surrounding the QC-FF. We construct forward models of viscoelastic deformation driven by coseismic stress changes from these two earthquakes and explore a large set of laterally heterogeneous viscosity structures that incorporate a relatively weak back-arc domain; we then evaluate each model based on its fit to the postseismic signals in our cGPS data. In determining best-fit model structures, we additionally incorporate the effects of afterslip following the 2012 event. Our results indicate the occurrence of a combination of temporally decaying afterslip and vigorous viscoelastic relaxation of the mantle asthenosphere. In addition, our best-fit viscosity structure (transient viscosity of 1.4–2.0 × 10 18 Pa s; steady-state viscosity of 10 19 Pa s) is consistent with the range of upper mantle viscosities determined in previous studies of glacial isostatic rebound and postseismic deformation.

Alaska, British Columbia↗
USGS2009

Localized double-array stacking analysis of PcP: D″ and ULVZ structure beneath the Cocos plate, Mexico, central Pacific, and north Pacific

A large, high quality P-wave data set comprising short-period and broadband signals sampling four separate regions in the lowermost mantle beneath the Cocos plate, Mexico, the central Pacific, and the north Pacific is analyzed using regional one-dimensional double-array stacking and modelling with reflectivity synthetics. A data-screening criterion retains only events with stable PcP energy in the final data stacks used for modelling and interpretation. This significantly improves the signal stacks relative to including unscreened observations, allows confident alignment on the PcP arrival and allows tight bounds to be placed on P-wave velocity structure above the core&ndash;mantle boundary (CMB). The PcP reflections under the Cocos plate are well modelled without any ultra-low velocity zone from 5 to 20&deg;N. At latitudes from 15 to 20&deg;N, we find evidence for two P-wave velocity discontinuities in the D &Prime; region. The first is &sim;182 km above the CMB with a &delta;ln V p of +1.5%, near the same depth as a weaker discontinuity (<+0.5%) observed from 5 to 15&deg;N in prior work. The other reflector is &sim;454 km above the CMB, with a &delta;ln V p of +0.4%; this appears to be a shallower continuation of the joint P- and S-wave discontinuity previously detected south of 15&deg; N, which is presumed to be the perovskite to post-perovskite phase transition. The data stacks for paths bottoming below Mexico have PcP images that are well matched with the simple IASP91 structure, contradicting previous inferences of ULVZ presence in this region. These particular data are not very sensitive to any D &Prime; discontinuities, and simply bound them to be <&sim;2%, if present. Data sampling the lowermost mantle beneath the central Pacific confirm the presence of a &sim;15-km thick ultra-low velocity zone (ULVZ) just above the CMB, with &delta;ln V p and &delta;ln V s of around &minus;3 to &minus;4% and &minus;4 to &minus;8%, respectively. The ULVZ models predict previous S-wave data stacks well. The data for this region indicate laterally varying V p discontinuities in D &Prime;, with one subregion having a &delta;ln V p of 0.5% 140 km above the CMB. Beneath the north Pacific, the PcP arrivals are compatible with only weak ULVZ (&delta;ln V p &sim; 0 to &minus;3%), and there is a weak D &Prime; reflector with &delta;ln V p = 0.5%, near 314 km above the CMB. These results indicate localized occurrence of detectable ULVZ structures rather than ubiquitous ULVZ structure and emphasize the distinctiveness between the large low shear velocity province under the central Pacific and circum-Pacific regions.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors↗
USGS1996

The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Main shock characteristics

The October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, Calif., earthquake (0004:15.2 G.m.t. October 18; lat 37.036º N., long 121.883º W.; 19-km depth) had a local magnitude (M L ) of about 6.7, a surface-wave magnitude (M S ) of 7.1, a seismic moment of 2.2x10 19 N-m to 3.5x10 19 N-m, a source duration of 6 to 15 s, and an average stress drop of at least 50 bars. Slip occurred on a dipping fault surface about 35 km long and was largely confined to a depth of about 7 to 20 km. The slip vector had a large vertical component, and slip was distributed in two main regions situated northwest and southeast of the hypocenter. This slip distribution caused about half of the earthquake's energy to be focused toward the urbanized San Francisco Bay region, while the other half was focused toward the southeast. Had the rupture initiated at the southeast end of the aftershock zone, shaking in the bay region would have been both longer and stronger. These source parameters suggest that the earthquake was not a typical shallow San Andreas-type event but a deeper event on a different fault with a recurrence interval of many hundreds of years. Therefore, the potential for a damaging shallow event on the San Andreas fault in the Santa Cruz Mountains may still exist.

California↗
USGS1994

Routine estimation of earthquake source complexity: The 18 October 1992 Colombian earthquake

We describe two methods, suitable for routine application to teleseismic recordings, that characterize the time history of seismic events. Stacking short-period signals from large regional arrays provides stable estimates of high-frequency radiation from the source, and an empirical Green's function deconvolution procedure extracts reliable, broadband time functions suitable for analysis of faulting complexity and the spatio-temporal extent of rupture. Combined, these procedures characterize the source radiation of large events ( M s > 7) between 200- and 0.5-sec periods.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗