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Thomas E. Parsons

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas E. Parsons.

54 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Earthquake rupture process recreated from a natural fault surface

What exactly happens on the rupture surface as an earthquake nucleates, spreads, and stops? We cannot observe this directly, and models depend on assumptions about physical conditions and geometry at depth. We thus measure a natural fault surface and use its 3D coordinates to construct a replica at 0.1 m resolution to obviate geometry uncertainty. We can recreate stick-slip behavior on the resulting finite element model that depends solely on observed fault geometry. We clamp the fault together and apply steady state tectonic stress until seismic slip initiates and terminates. Our recreated M~1 earthquake initiates at contact points where there are steep surface gradients because infinitesimal lateral displacements reduce clamping stress most efficiently there. Unclamping enables accelerating slip to spread across the surface, but the fault soon jams up because its uneven, anisotropic shape begins to juxtapose new high-relief sticking points. These contacts would ultimately need to be sheared off or strongly deformed before another similar earthquake could occur. Our model shows that an important role is played by fault-wall geometry, though we do not include effects of varying fluid pressure or exotic rheologies on the fault surfaces. We extrapolate our results to large fault systems using observed self-similarity properties, and suggest that larger ruptures might begin and end in a similar way, though the scale of geometrical variation in fault shape that can arrest a rupture necessarily scales with magnitude. In other words, fault segmentation may be a magnitude dependent phenomenon and could vary with each subsequent rupture.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2015

Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M≥6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M≥6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the approximate nature of the model and known limitations, means the applicability of UCERF3 should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2014

Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24h post mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M=6.0 West Napa earthquake

We calculate stress changes resulting from the M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake on north San Francisco Bay area faults. The earthquake ruptured within a series of long faults that pose significant hazard to the Bay area, and we are thus concerned with potential increases in the probability of a large earthquake through stress transfer. We conduct this exercise as a prospective test because the skill of stress‐based aftershock forecasting methodology is inconclusive. We apply three methods: (1) generalized mapping of regional Coulomb stress change, (2) stress changes resolved on Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast faults, and (3) a mapped rate/state aftershock forecast. All calculations were completed within 24 h after the main shock and were made without benefit of known aftershocks, which will be used to evaluative the prospective forecast. All methods suggest that we should expect heightened seismicity on parts of the southern Rodgers Creek, northern Hayward, and Green Valley faults.

California↗
USGS2014

Source and progression of a submarine landslide and tsunami: The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake at Valdez

Like many subduction zone earthquakes, the deadliest aspects of the 1964 M = 9.2 Alaska earthquake were the tsunamis it caused. The worst of these were generated by local submarine landslides induced by the earthquake. These caused high runups, engulfing several coastal towns in Prince William Sound. In this paper, we study one of these cases in detail, the Port Valdez submarine landslide and tsunami. We combine eyewitness reports, preserved film, and careful posttsunami surveys with new geophysical data to inform numerical models for landslide tsunami generation. We review the series of events as recorded at Valdez old town and then determine the corresponding subsurface events that led to the tsunami. We build digital elevation models of part of the pretsunami and posttsunami fjord‐head delta. Comparing them reveals a ~1500 m long region that receded 150 m to the east, which we interpret as the primary delta landslide source. Multibeam imagery and high‐resolution seismic reflection data identify a ~400 m wide chute with hummocky deposits at its terminus, which may define the primary slide path. Using these elements we run hydrodynamic models of the landslide‐driven tsunamis that match observations of current direction, maximum inundation, and wave height at Valdez old town. We speculate that failure conditions at the delta front may have been influenced by manmade changes in drainage patterns as well as the fast retreat of Valdez and other glaciers during the past century.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards

The effect of undersampling on estimating the size of extreme natural hazards from historical data is examined. Tests using synthetic catalogs indicate that the tail of an empirical size distribution sampled from a pure Pareto probability distribution can range from having one-to-several unusually large events to appearing depleted, relative to the parent distribution. Both of these effects are artifacts caused by limited catalog length. It is more difficult to diagnose the artificially depleted empirical distributions, since one expects that a pure Pareto distribution is physically limited in some way. Using maximum likelihood methods and the method of moments, we estimate the power-law exponent and the corner size parameter of tapered Pareto distributions for several natural hazard examples: tsunamis, floods, and earthquakes. Each of these examples has varying catalog lengths and measurement thresholds, relative to the largest event sizes. In many cases where there are only several orders of magnitude between the measurement threshold and the largest events, joint two-parameter estimation techniques are necessary to account for estimation dependence between the power-law scaling exponent and the corner size parameter. Results indicate that whereas the corner size parameter of a tapered Pareto distribution can be estimated, its upper confidence bound cannot be determined and the estimate itself is often unstable with time. Correspondingly, one cannot statistically reject a pure Pareto null hypothesis using natural hazard catalog data. Although physical limits to the hazard source size and by attenuation mechanisms from source to site constrain the maximum hazard size, historical data alone often cannot reliably determine the corner size parameter. Probabilistic assessments incorporating theoretical constraints on source size and propagation effects are preferred over deterministic assessments of extreme natural hazards based on historic data.

Natural Hazards↗
USGS2014

The global aftershock zone

The aftershock zone of each large (M ≥ 7) earthquake extends throughout the shallows of planet Earth. Most aftershocks cluster near the mainshock rupture, but earthquakes send out shivers in the form of seismic waves, and these temporary distortions are large enough to trigger other earthquakes at global range. The aftershocks that happen at great distance from their mainshock are often superposed onto already seismically active regions, making them difficult to detect and understand. From a hazard perspective we are concerned that this dynamic process might encourage other high magnitude earthquakes, and wonder if a global alarm state is warranted after every large mainshock. From an earthquake process perspective we are curious about the physics of earthquake triggering across the magnitude spectrum. In this review we build upon past studies that examined the combined global response to mainshocks. Such compilations demonstrate significant rate increases during, and immediately after (~ 45 min) M > 7.0 mainshocks in all tectonic settings and ranges. However, it is difficult to find strong evidence for M > 5 rate increases during the passage of surface waves in combined global catalogs. On the other hand, recently published studies of individual large mainshocks associate M > 5 triggering at global range that is delayed by hours to days after surface wave arrivals. The longer the delay between mainshock and global aftershock, the more difficult it is to establish causation. To address these questions, we review the response to 260 M ≥ 7.0 shallow (Z ≤ 50 km) mainshocks in 21 global regions with local seismograph networks. In this way we can examine the detailed temporal and spatial response, or lack thereof, during passing seismic waves, and over the 24 h period after their passing. We see an array of responses that can involve immediate and widespread seismicity outbreaks, delayed and localized earthquake clusters, to no response at all. About 50% of the catalogs that we studied showed possible (localized delayed) remote triggering, and ~ 20% showed probable (instantaneous broadly distributed) remote triggering. However, in any given region, at most only about 2–3% of global mainshocks caused significant local earthquake rate increases. These rate increases are mostly composed of small magnitude events, and we do not find significant evidence of dynamically triggered M > 5 earthquakes. If we assume that the few observed M > 5 events are triggered, we find that they are not directly associated with surface wave passage, with first incidences being 9–10 h later. We note that mainshock magnitude, relative proximity, amplitude spectra, peak ground motion, and mainshock focal mechanisms are not reliable determining factors as to whether a mainshock will cause remote triggering. By elimination, azimuth, and polarization of surface waves with respect to receiver faults may be more important factors.

Tectonophysics↗
USGS2013

New imaging of submarine landslides from the 1964 earthquake near Whittier, Alaska, and a comparison to failures in other Alaskan fjords

The 1964 Alaska M w 9.2 earthquake triggered numerous submarine slope failures in fjords of southern Alaska. These failures generated local tsunamis, such as at Whittier, where they inundated the town within 4 min of the beginning of shaking. Run-up was up to 32 m, with 13 casualties. We collected new multibeam bathymetry and high-resolution sparker seismic data in Passage Canal, and we examined bathymetry changes before and after the earthquake. The data reveal the debris flow deposit from the 1964 landslides, which covers the western 5 km of the fjord bottom. Individual blocks in the flow are up to 145-m wide and 25-m tall. Bathymetry changes show the mass transfer deposits originated from the fjord head and Whittier Creek deltas and had a volume of about 42 million m 3 . The 1964 deposit has an average thickness of ∼5.4 m. Beyond the debris flow, the failures likely deposited a ∼4.6-m thick megaturbidite in a distal basin. We have studied the 1964 submarine landslides in three fjords. All involved failure of the fjord-head delta. All failures eroded basin-floor sediments and incorporated them as they travelled. All the failures deposited blocks, but their size and travel distances varied greatly. We find a correlation between maximum block size and maximum tsunami run-up regardless of the volume of the slides. Lastly, the fjord’s margins were influenced by increased supply of glacial sediments during the little ice age, which along with a long interseismic interval (∼900 years) may have caused the 1964 earthquake to produce particularly numerous and large submarine landslides.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

Geosphere↗
USGS2012

Seismic constraints on the nature of lower crustal reflectors beneath the extending Southern Transition Zone of the Colorado Plateau, Arizona

We determine the reflection polarity and exploit variations in P and S wave reflectivity and P wave amplitude versus offset (AVO) to constrain the origin of lower crustal reflectivity observed on new three-component seismic data recorded across the structural transition of the Colorado Plateau. The near vertical incidence reflection data were collected by Stanford University in 1989 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Pacific to Arizona Crustal Experiment that traversed the Arizona Transition Zone of the Colorado Plateau. The results of independent waveform modeling methods are consistent with much of the lower crustal reflectivity resulting from thin, high-impedance layers. The reflection polarity of the cleanest lower crustal events is positive, which implies that these reflections result from high-velocity contrasts, and the waveform character indicates that the reflectors are probably layers less than or approximately equal to 200 m thick. The lower crustal events are generally less reflective to incident S waves than to P waves, which agrees with the predicted behavior of high-velocity mafic layering. Analysis of the P wave AVO character of lower crustal reflections demonstrates that the events maintain a constant amplitude with offset, which is most consistent with a mafic-layering model. One exception is a high-amplitude (10 dB above background) event near the base of lower crustal reflectivity which abruptly decreases in amplitude at increasing offsets. The event has a pronounced S wave response, which along with its negative AVO trend is a possible indication of the presence of fluids in the lower crust. The Arizona Transition Zone is an active but weakly extended province, which causes us to discard models of lower crustal layering resulting from shearing because of the high degree of strain required to create such layers. Instead, we favor horizontal basaltic intrusions as the primary origin of high-impedance reflectors based on (1) The fact that most xenoliths in eruptive basalts of the Transition Zone are of mafic igneous composition, (2) indications that a pulse of magmatic activity crossed the Transition Zone in the late Tertiary period, and (3) the high regional heat flow observed in the Transition Zone. The apparent presence of fluids near the base of the reflective zone may indicate a partially molten intrusion. We present a mechanism by which magma can be trapped and be induced to intrude horizontally at rheologic contrasts in extending crust.

Arizona↗
USGS2010

Reply to “Comment on ‘Is There a Basis for Preferring Characteristic Earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter Distribution in Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting?’ by Tom Parsons and Eric L. Geist” by Jens-Uwe Klügel

The focus of Parsons and Geist (2009) was to test whether the key observational data used in earthquake forecasting necessitate a characteristic earthquake rupture model. The point of our article was not to suggest that a specific form of the Gutenberg–Richter earthquake distribution is a perfect representation of reality. The uncertainties surrounding event slip estimates, paleoseismic event rates, and observed a and b values in catalog magnitude–frequency distributions are broad. So broad, in fact, that giving full weight to just one model of earthquake rupture behavior in formal forecasting is unjustified. Further, the characteristic earthquake model requires definition of rupture segments, which introduces a series of unquantifiable uncertainties that are seldom addressed in forecasts (e.g., Field et al., 2009).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence

The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.

Book chapter↗
USGS2009

Earth science: lasting earthquake legacy

Earthquakes occur within continental tectonic plates as well as at plate boundaries. Do clusters of such mid-plate events constitute zones of continuing hazard, or are they aftershocks of long-past earthquakes? Early on the morning of 16 December 1811, an earthquake of about magnitude 7 shook the centre of the United States around a small town on the Mississippi called New Madrid. By 7 February 1812, it had triggered three more shocks of similar magnitude. The earthquakes broke a set of faults along the Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee state boundaries, apparently reactivating an ancient rift in the interior of a continental tectonic plate. On 31 August 1886, a magnitude-7 shock struck Charleston, South Carolina; low-level activity continues there today. One view of seismic hazard is that large earthquakes will return to New Madrid and Charleston at intervals of about 500 years. With expected ground motions that would be stronger than average, that prospect produces estimates of earthquake hazard that rival those at the plate boundaries marked by the San Andreas fault and Cascadia subduction zone. The result is two large 'bull's-eyes' on the US National Seismic Hazard Maps — which, for example, influence regional building codes and perceptions of public safety.

Nature↗
USGS2009

Is there a basis for preferring characteristic earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter distribution in probabilistic earthquake forecasting?

The idea that faults rupture in repeated, characteristic earthquakes is central to most probabilistic earthquake forecasts. The concept is elegant in its simplicity, and if the same event has repeated itself multiple times in the past, we might anticipate the next. In practice however, assembling a fault-segmented characteristic earthquake rupture model can grow into a complex task laden with unquantified uncertainty. We weigh the evidence that supports characteristic earthquakes against a potentially simpler model made from extrapolation of a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude-frequency law to individual fault zones. We find that the Gutenberg–Richter model satisfies key data constraints used for earthquake forecasting equally well as a characteristic model. Therefore, judicious use of instrumental and historical earthquake catalogs enables large-earthquake-rate calculations with quantifiable uncertainty that should get at least equal weighting in probabilistic forecasting.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

M ≥ 7.0 earthquake recurrence on the San Andreas fault from a stress renewal model

Forecasting M ≥ 7.0 San Andreas fault earthquakes requires an assessment of their expected frequency. I used a three-dimensional finite element model of California to calculate volumetric static stress drops from scenario M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes on three San Andreas fault sections. The ratio of stress drop to tectonic stressing rate derived from geodetic displacements yielded recovery times at points throughout the model volume. Under a renewal model, stress recovery times on ruptured fault planes can be a proxy for earthquake recurrence. I show curves of magnitude versus stress recovery time for three San Andreas fault sections. When stress recovery times were converted to expected M ≥ 7.0 earthquake frequencies, they fit Gutenberg-Richter relationships well matched to observed regional rates of M ≤ 6.0 earthquakes. Thus a stress-balanced model permits large earthquake Gutenberg-Richter behavior on an individual fault segment, though it does not require it. Modeled slip magnitudes and their expected frequencies were consistent with those observed at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site if strict time predictability does not apply to the San Andreas fault.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1995

Velocities of southern Basin and Range xenoliths: Insights on the nature of lower crustal reflectivity and composition

To reconcile differences between the assessments of crustal composition in the southern Basin and Range province on the basis of seismic refraction and reflection data and lower-crustal xenoliths, we measured velocities of xenoliths from the Cima volcanic field in southern California. Lower-crustal samples studied included gabbro, microgabbro, and pyroxenite. We find that the mafic xenolith velocities are compatible with regional in situ measurements from seismic refraction studies, provided that a mixture of gabbro and pyroxenite is present in the lower crust. Supporting this model are observations that many of the lower-crustal xenoliths from the Cima volcanic field are composites of these rock types, with igneous contacts. Vertical incidence synthetic seismograms show that a gabbroic lower crust with occasional pyroxenite layering can produce a reflective lower crust that is similar in texture to that shown by seismic reflection data recorded nearby.

California↗
USGS1993

Does magmatism influence low-angle normal faulting?

Synextensional magmatism has long been recognized as a ubiquitous characteristic of highly extended terranes in the western Cordillera of the United States. Intrusive magmatism can have severe effects on the local stress field of the rocks intruded. Because a lower angle fault undergoes increased normal stress from the weight of the upper plate, it becomes more difficult for such a fault to slide. However, if the principal stress orientations are rotated away from vertical and horizontal, then a low-angle fault plane becomes more favored. We suggest that igneous midcrustal inflation occurring at rates faster than regional extension causes increased horizontal stresses in the crust that alter and rotate the principal stresses. Isostatic forces and continued magmatism can work together to create the antiformal or domed detachment surface commonly observed in the metamorphic core complexes of the western Cordillera. Thermal softening caused by magmatism may allow a more mobile mid-crustal isostatic response to normal faulting.

Geology↗