Svetlana Yegorova | Geology Reports

USGS2026

Alternative future vegetation pathways reveal potential transformations of western US ecosystems

Managing ecosystems in an era of rapid change is inherently challenging not only because of uncertainty in future climate but also due to diverse responses of ecosystems to climate. Projections of ecological transformation alongside information about plausible vegetation trajectories can help land managers explore divergent scenarios and consider how modeled outcomes match their observations. Climate-analog impact models (AIMs) compare environmental information (e.g., vegetation types) between sets of climatically similar locations to infer change and can be used to identify multiple outcomes. We used AIMs to project changes in vegetation across the western United States under a mid-21st century climate scenario, characterize ecological transformation vulnerability based on projection divergence, and demonstrate how AIMs can inform decision-making. We projected high or very high vulnerability to ecological transformation across 29% of the western US, nearly 1 M km 2 . Vulnerability varied among vegetation groups; 75% of alpine vegetation had high or very high vulnerability vs. 6% of desert scrub. We estimate that 9% of the study area faces a high likelihood of transformation based on combined measures of vulnerability and projection agreement. Transformation at the vegetation type ( n = 50) level is projected for 40% (1.4 M km 2 ) of the study area, based on primary projections. As vegetation shifts towards types supported by a more arid climate, forested area is expected to contract by 9% and subalpine forests specifically by 54%. Elsewhere, vulnerability is low or trajectories are uncertain, implying opportunities for managers to intervene. Dry forests, for example, could be stabilized through vegetation management and intentional fire use. Our findings suggest likely ecological transformations with significant downstream consequences for ecosystem services and natural resources. They are best used within decision-making frameworks that draw on multiple lines of evidence including local expertise and complementary knowledge systems.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2013

Bird-vegetation associations in thinned and unthinned young Douglas-fir forests 10 years after thinning

Quantitative associations between animals and vegetation have long been used as a basis for conservation and management, as well as in formulating predictions about the influence of resource management and climate change on populations. A fundamental assumption embedded in the use of such correlations is that they remain relatively consistent over time. However, this assumption of stationarity has been rarely tested – even for forest birds, which are frequently considered to be 'indicator species' in management operations. We investigated the temporal dynamics of bird-vegetation relationships in young Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests over more than a decade following initial anthropogenic disturbance (commercial thinning). We modeled bird occurrence or abundance as a function of vegetation characteristics for eight common bird species for each of six breeding seasons following forest thinning. Generally, vegetation relationships were highly inconsistent in magnitude across years, but remained positive or negative within species. For 3 species, relationships that were initially strong dampened over time. For other species, strength of vegetation association was apparently stochastic. These findings indicate that caution should be used when interpreting weak bird-vegetation relationships found in short-term studies and parameterizing predictive models with data collected over the short term.

Oregon↗