Geology topics

Susan L. Earnst

Publications and source records attributed to Susan L. Earnst.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2015

Fire modulates climate change response of simulated aspen distribution across topoclimatic gradients in a semi-arid montane landscape

Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under various climate-fire scenarios. Results Simulations suggest that many aspen stands could persist without fire for centuries under current climate conditions. However, a simulated 2–5 °C increase in temperature caused a substantial reduction of aspen coverage at lower elevations and a modest increase at upper elevations, leading to an overall reduction of aspen range at the landscape level. Increasing fire activity may favor aspen increase at its upper elevation limits adjacent to coniferous forest, but may also favor reduction of aspen at lower elevation limits adjacent to xeric shrubland. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale terrain effects on climatic water deficit and ecohydrology when modeling species distribution response to climate change. This modeling study suggests that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that use fire would benefit from consideration of spatial context at landscape scales.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2012

Changes in avian and plant communities of aspen woodlands over 12 years after livestock removal in the northwestern Great Basin

Riparian and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) woodlands are centers of avian abundance and diversity in the western United States, but they have been affected adversely by land use practices, particularly livestock grazing. In 1990, cattle were removed from a 112,500-ha national wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon. Thereafter, we monitored changes in vegetation and bird abundance in years 1–3 (phase 1) and 10–12 (phase 2) in 17 riparian and 9 snow-pocket aspen plots. On each 1.5-ha plot, we sampled vegetation in 6 transects. Three times during each breeding season, observers recorded all birds 50 m to each side of the plot's 150-m centerline for 25 minutes. We analyzed data with multivariate analysis of variance and paired t tests with p values adjusted for multiple comparisons. In both periods, riparian and snow-pocket aspen produced extensive regeneration of new shoots (x̄ = 2646 stems/ha and 7079 stems/ha, respectively). By phase 2, a 64% increase in medium-diameter trees in riparian stands indicated successful recruitment into the overstory, but this pattern was not seen in snow-pocket stands, where the density of trees was over 2 times greater. By phase 2 in riparian and snow-pocket stands, native forb cover had increased by 68% and 57%, respectively, mesic shrub cover had increased by 29% and 58%, and sagebrush cover had decreased by 24% and 31%. Total avian abundance increased by 33% and 39% in riparian and snow-pocket aspen, respectively, ground or understory nesters increased by 133% and 67% and overstory nesters increased by 34% and 33%. Similarly, ground or understory foragers increased by 25% and 32%, aerial foragers by 55% and 57%, and overstory foragers by 66% and 43%. We interpreted the substantial regeneration of aspen shoots, increased densities of riparian forbs and shrubs, and increased avian abundances as a multitrophic-level response to the total removal of livestock and as substantial movement toward recovery of biological integrity.

Aspen Woodlands;Great Basin↗

USGS2006

A landscape-scale model of yellow-billed loon (Gavia adamsii) habitat preferences in northern alaska

We modeled yellow-billed loon ( Gavia adamsii ) habitat preferences in a 23,500 km 2 area of northern Alaska using intensive aerial surveys and landscape-scale habitat descriptors. Of the 757 lakes censused, yellow-billed loons occupied 15% and Pacific loons ( G. pacifica ) 42%. Lake area, depth, proportion of shoreline in aquatic vegetation, shoreline complexity, hydrological connectivity (stream present within 100 m or absent), and an area–connectivity interaction were positive, significant predictors of yellow-billed loon presence in a multivariate logistic regression model, but distance to nearest river or Beaufort Sea coast were not. Predicted yellow-billed loon presence was 13 and 4.7 times more likely on deep and medium lakes, respectively, than on shallow lakes that freeze to the bottom. On small lakes (<60 ha), predicted yellow-billed loon presence was 4.8–1.7 times more likely on lakes with hydrological connectivity than without, but connectivity was not important at most lake sizes (65–750 ha). Yellow-billed loon broods depend on fish available in the brood-rearing lake, and we suggest that a dependable supply of fish is more likely in larger lakes, those deep enough to have open water under winter ice, and those near streams. Highly convoluted shorelines and those with aquatic vegetation provide loon nesting and brood-rearing sites, as well as fish habitat. Pacific loon absence was a significant, positive predictor when added to the habitat model, indicating that yellow-billed loons were four times more likely on lakes without Pacific loons.

Hydrobiologia↗

USGS2005

Population size and trend of Yellow-billed Loons in northern Alaska

The Yellow-billed Loon ( Gavia adamsii ) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986–2003 and 1992–2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of−0.9% (95% CI of−3.6% to +1.8%). The estimated population size, averaged over the past 12 years and adjusted by a correction factor based on an intensive, lake-circling, aerial survey method, was 2221 individuals (95% CI of 1206–3235) in early June and 3369 individuals (95% CI of 1910–4828) in late June. Based on estimates from other studies of the proportion of loons nesting in a given year, it is likely that <1000 nesting pairs inhabit northern Alaska in most years. The highest concentration of Yellow-billed Loons occurred between the Meade and Ikpikpuk Rivers; and across all of northern Alaska, 53% of recorded sightings occurred within 12% of the area.

Alaska↗

USGS2004

Status assessment and conservation plan for the yellow-billed loon (Gavia adamsii)

Because of its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding habitat, the Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is a species of conservation concern to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the subject of a petition for listing under the Endangered Species Act. This Status Assessment synthesizes current information on population size, trends, and potential threats to Yellow-billed Loons, and the Conservation Plan identifies research and monitoring activities that would contribute to the conservation of this species. The preparation of this report was requested and funded by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Nongame Bird Office, Region 7.The Status Assessment and Conservation Plan for the Yellow-billed Loon can be summarized as follows:? Northern Alaska breeding grounds support an average of 3,369 individuals, including <1,000 nesting pairs in most years. The Yellow-billed Loon ranks as one of the 10 rarest birds that breeds regularly within the main land U.S. and one of only 20 with a North American population <16,000 individuals (Section 6-E).? There is no evidence of a long-term trend in the Yellow-billed Loon population index since 1986 (-0.9% annual change), but interpretation of surveys is complicated by changes in observers and high annual variation, and the 95% confidence interval is large (-3.6% to +1.8% annual change). The low reproductive potential of Yellow-billed Loons suggests that recovery from a substantial decline would not occur rapidly. There are no systematic surveys of Canadian and Russian breeding populations (Section 6-F).? The expansion of the oil industry into prime Yellow-billed Loon breeding habitat is a recent occurrence and we lack the necessary information to accurately predict its effect on the population. Most of northern Alaska?s Yellow-billed Loons (91%) occur on the National Petroleum Reserve?Alaska, virtually all of which is open or proposed to be opened to development and where there is no permanent or legal protection of Yellow-billed Loon habitat (Section 7-A).? Other potential factors affecting the population are also addressed, such as contaminants, subsistence hunting, by catch in subsistence and commercial fisheries on the breeding and wintering grounds, and health of the marine ecosystem off the coast of East Asia where Alaska?s Yellow-billed Loons winter, but data are lacking to reach strong conclusions on most issues.? The conservation goal adopted by the Alaska Loon and Grebe Working Group for the Yellow-billed Loon is to maintain a stable breeding population, of current size and distribution, across the extent of the loon?s breeding range in Alaska. The Conservation Plan, designed to provide information necessary to meet this goal, puts forth seven objectives: 1) Conduct annual population surveys having negligible bias and 80% statistical power to detect a 3.4% annual decline, a decline that would result in a 50% loss of the population within 20 years; 2) Obtain an unbiased and reliable estimate of the size of Alaska?s breeding population; 3) Identify geographic regions and habitats of importance during breeding, staging, and wintering periods; 4) Use demographic models to evaluate risks to the population; 5) Identify potential effects of oil development on the breeding grounds and measures necessary to minimize the effects; 6) Evaluate the magnitude of subsistence harvest and by catch and their potential effects on the population; 7) Develop a continent-wide and range-wide context for Alaska?s population and habitat objectives.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2002

Double sampling to estimate density and population trends in birds

We present a method for estimating density of nesting birds based on double sampling. The approach involves surveying a large sample of plots using a rapid method such as uncorrected point counts, variable circular plot counts, or the recently suggested double-observer method. A subsample of those plots is also surveyed using intensive methods to determine actual density. The ratio of the mean count on those plots (using the rapid method) to the mean actual density (as determined by the intensive searches) is used to adjust results from the rapid method. The approach works well when results from the rapid method are highly correlated with actual density. We illustrate the method with three years of shorebird surveys from the tundra in northern Alaska. In the rapid method, surveyors covered ~10 ha h -1 and surveyed each plot a single time. The intensive surveys involved three thorough searches, required ~3 h ha -1 , and took 20% of the study effort. Surveyors using the rapid method detected an average of 79% of birds present. That detection ratio was used to convert the index obtained in the rapid method into an essentially unbiased estimate of density. Trends estimated from several years of data would also be essentially unbiased. Other advantages of double sampling are that (1) the rapid method can be changed as new methods become available, (2) domains can be compared even if detection rates differ, (3) total population size can be estimated, and (4) valuable ancillary information (e.g. nest success) can be obtained on intensive plots with little additional effort. We suggest that double sampling be used to test the assumption that rapid methods, such as variable circular plot and double-observer methods, yield density estimates that are essentially unbiased. The feasibility of implementing double sampling in a range of habitats needs to be evaluated.

The Auk↗

USGS2002

Parental care in Tundra Swans during the pre-fledgling period

Among studies that have quantified the care of precocial young, few have investigated forms of parental care other than vigilance. During the pre-fledging period, Tundra Swan (Cygnus columbianus columbianus) parents provided simultaneous biparental care by foraging near each other and their cygnets, and cygnets spent more time foraging during bouts in which both parents were foraging nearby than when only one parent was foraging nearby. Parents spent nearly twice as much foraging time on land than did non-parents, a habitat in which cygnets foraged more intensely than parents (i.e., spent more time foraging during foraging bouts) and could graze on protein-rich sedges rather than use more difficult below-water foraging methods. Parents also spent more than twice as much time being vigilant and more than three times as much time defending their territory than non-parents, behaviors that presumably benefited cygents by decreasing predation risk and indirect foraging competition, respectively. Parents therefore incurred the costs of foraging less intensely during foraging bouts, spending more time interacting, more time in vigilance, and less time sleeping/preening than non-parents.

Waterbirds↗

USGS1999

Relative importance of male and territory quality in pairing success of male rock ptarmigan (Lagopus mutus)

We studied pairing success in male rock ptarmigan (Lagopus mutus) in northern Alaska to learn whether males obtaining more females possessed phenotypic traits that influenced female choice directly, whether these traits permitted males to obtain territories favored by females, or whether both processes occurred. The number of females per male varied from zero to three. Several male and territory traits were significantly correlated with number of females per male. We used multiple regression to obtain a single measure of male quality and a single measure of territory quality. These measures of male and territory quality correlated with each other and with male pairing success. We used path analysis to separate direct effects of male quality on pairing success from indirect effects due to high-quality males obtaining high-quality territories. Both direct and indirect pathways had significant effects on pairing success, and direct and indirect effects of male traits on pairing success were about equal. This study illustrates an analytical approach for estimating the relative importance of direct and indirect causal relationships in natural systems.

Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology↗

USGS1998

Status of the white-faced ibis: Breeding colony dynamics of the Great Basin population, 1985-1997

The status of the White-faced Ibis (Plegadis chihi) in the Great Basin is of concern because of its small population size and the limited and dynamic nature of its breeding habitat. We analyzed existing annual survey data for the White-faced Ibis breeding in the Great Basin and surrounding area for 1985-1997. Methods varied among colonies and included flight-line counts and fixed-wing aircraft and helicopter surveys. The number of White-faced Ibis breeding pairs in the Great Basin area has nearly tripled since 1985, despite years of severe flooding and drought at major breeding areas. This growth is reflected in both peripheral (i.e., Oregon, California, Idaho) and core (i.e., Nevada and Utah) components of the population. Our data on colony dynamics in Oregon and Nevada illustrate the ability of the highly nomadic White-faced Ibis to compensate for poor conditions at traditional colony sites by moving among colonies and rapidly colonizing newly available wetlands. We suggest that the White-faced Ibis would benefit from a landscape mosaic of well-distributed peripheral wetlands and persistent colony sites. The nomadic nature of the White-faced Ibis and the dynamic nature of their breeding habitat necessitates that wetland management decisions and population monitoring be conducted in a regional context.

Colonial Waterbirds↗

USGS1994

Tundra swan habitat preferences during migration in North Dakota

I studied tundra swan (Cygnus columbianus columbianus) habitat preference in North Dakota during autumn migration, 1988-89. Many thousand tundra swans stop in the Prairie Pothole region during autumn migration, but swan resource use has not been quantified. I examined habitat preference in relation to an index of sago pondweed ( Potamogeton pectinatus ) presence, extent of open water, and wetland size. I compared habitat preference derived from counts of all swans to those derived from foraging swans only and cygnets only. Foraging swans preferred wetlands with sago pondweed ( P = 0.03); the number of foraging swans per wetland was >4 times higher on wetlands with sago pondweed than on wetlands without sago. In contrast, nonforaging swans did not prefer wetlands with sago pondweed ( P = 0.85) but preferred large wetlands ( P = 0.02) and those with a high proportion of contiguous open water ( P < 0.01). Thus, conclusions about habitat preference derived from counts of all swans, most of which were nonforaging, would not have revealed the importance of sago pondweed. Cygnets were more likely to be feeding than adults ( P = 0.03) and occurred proportionately more often in smaller flocks ( P = 0.04), but cygnets and adults had similar habitat preferences.

North Dakota↗