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Susan H. Cannon

Publications and source records attributed to Susan H. Cannon.

45 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Using Logistic Regression To Predict the Probability of Debris Flows Occurring in Areas Recently Burned By Wildland Fires

Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of debris flows occurring in areas recently burned by wildland fires. Multiple logistic regression is conceptually similar to multiple linear regression because statistical relations between one dependent variable and several independent variables are evaluated. In logistic regression, however, the dependent variable is transformed to a binary variable (debris flow did or did not occur), and the actual probability of the debris flow occurring is statistically modeled. Data from 399 basins located within 15 wildland fires that burned during 2000-2002 in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and New Mexico were evaluated. More than 35 independent variables describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows were delineated from National Elevation Data using a Geographic Information System (GIS). (2) Data describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were determined for each basin. These data were then downloaded to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression. (3) Relations between the occurrence/non-occurrence of debris flows and burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated and several preliminary multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combination produced the most effective model. The multivariate model that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows was selected. (4) The multivariate logistic regression model was entered into a GIS, and a map showing the probability of debris flows was constructed. The most effective model incorporates the percentage of each basin with slope greater than 30 percent, percentage of land burned at medium and high burn severity in each basin, particle size sorting, average storm intensity (millimeters per hour), soil organic matter content, soil permeability, and soil drainage. The results of this study demonstrate that logistic regression is a valuable tool for predicting the probability of debris flows occurring in recently-burned landscapes.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2002

Emergency assessment of potential debris-flow peak discharges, Missionary Ridge fire, Colorado

These maps present the results of assessments of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris flows issuing from the basins burned by the Missionary Ridge fire of June 9 through July 14, 2002, near Durango, Colorado. The maps are based on a regression model for debris-flow peak discharge normalized by average storm intensity as a function of basin gradient and burned extent, and limited field checking. A range of potential peak discharges that could be produced from each of the burned basins between 1 ft3/s (0.03 m3/s) and 6,446 ft3/s (183 m3/s) is calculated for the 5-year, 1-hour storm of 0.80 inches (20 mm). Potential peak discharges between 1 ft3/s (0.03 m3/s) and >8,000 ft3/s (227 m3/s) are calculated for the 25-year, 1-hour storm of 1.3 inches (33 mm) and for the 100-year, 1-hour storm of 1.8 inches (46 mm). These maps are intended for use by emergency personnel to aid in the preliminary design of mitigation measures, and for the planning of evacuation timing and routes.

Colorado↗
USGS2002

Emergency assessment of potential debris-flow peak discharges, Coal Seam fire, Colorado

These maps present the results of assessments of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris flows issuing from the basins burned by the Coal Seam fire of June and July 2002, near Glenwood Springs, Colorado. The maps are based on a regression model for debris-flow peak discharge normalized by average storm intensity as a function of basin gradient and burned extent, and limited field checking. A range of potential peak discharges that could potentially be produced from each of the burned basins between 1 ft 3 /s (0.03 m 3 /s) and greater than 5,000 ft 3 /s (>141 m 3 /s) is calculated for the 5-year, 1-hour storm of 0.80 inches (20 mm). The 25-year, 1-hour storm of 1.3 inches (33 mm). The 100- year, 1-hour storm of 1.8 inches (46 mm) produced peak discharges between 1 and greater than 8,000 ft 3 /s (>227 m 3 /s). These maps are intended for use by emergency personnel to aid in the preliminary design of mitigation measures, and the planning of evacuation timing and routes.

Colorado↗
USGS1997

Evaluation of the potential for debris and hyperconcentrated flows in Capulin Canyon as a result of the 1996 Dome fire, Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

The Dome fire of April 1996 burned 6684 ha in Bandelier National Monument and the adjacent Sante Fe National Forest. The potential for significant debris- and hyperconcentrated-flow activity in Capulin Canyon is evaluated through 1) a systematic consideration of geologic and geomorphic factors that characterize the condition of the hillslope materials and channels following the fire, 2) examination of sedimentologic evidence for past debris-flow activity in the canyon, and 3) evaluation of the response of the watershed through the 1996 summer monsoon season. The lack of accumulations of dry-ravel material on the hillslopes or in channels, the absence of a continuous hydrophobic layer, the relatively intact condition of the riparian vegetation and of the fibrous root mat on the hillslopes, and the lack of evidence of widespread past debris- and hyperconcentrated-flow activity, even with evidence of past fires, indicate a low potential for debris-flow activity in Capulin Canyon. In addition, thunderstorms during the summer monsoon of 1996 resulted in abundant surface overland flow on the hillslopes which transported low-density pumice, charcoal, ash and some mineral soil downslope as small-scale and non-erosive debris flows. In some places cobble- and boulder-sized material was moved short distances. A moderate potential for debris- and hyperconcentrated-flow activity is identified for the two major tributary canyons to Capulin Canyon based on evidence of both summer of 1996 and possible historic significant debris-flow activity.

Open-File Report↗