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Steven W. Hostetler

Publications and source records attributed to Steven W. Hostetler.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Postglacial ecosystem development of a hydrothermal landscape in Yellowstone National Park

The Yellowstone geo-ecosystem has been the subject of much research, but the ecological history of the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field and its iconic geyser basins is less known. In this investigation, paleoenvironmental analyses of sediment cores from lakes in Lower Geyser Basin were compared with regional records and paleoclimate model simulations to reconstruct the vegetation, wildfire, limnology, hydrothermal dynamics, and climate drivers since deglaciation, 15,000 to 14,000 years ago. Pollen data from Lower Geyser Basin lakes reveal the strong influence of infertile rhyolitic soils on vegetation history: an initial late-glacial steppe was replaced by lodgepole pine forest from 12.8 to 11.0 ka, with little change in forest composition or cover thereafter despite changing climate. This stability contrasts with the more dynamic vegetation response on nonrhyolite substrates in the Yellowstone region where nutrient and moisture availability is greater. Highest wildfire activity and low lake nutrient levels in Lower Geyser Basin occurred from 12 to 4 ka, when summers were substantially warmer and drier and fire-inducing vapor pressure deficits were 29 to 56% higher. The hydrothermal history, inferred from sedimentary arsenic and cesium abundances, was spatially and temporally variable but lake-forming hydrothermal events align with periods of abundant moisture. Thus, long-term changes in wildfire, limnology, and, to some extent, hydrothermal activity were governed by insolation-driven climate variations, whereas the vegetation response was muted and constrained by geologic processes. These findings suggest that warmer, drier conditions in the future could result in less hydrothermal activity yet little change in forest cover across the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field despite more wildfires.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2021

Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: Past, present, and future climate change in the greater Yellowstone watersheds

The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is one of the last remaining large and nearly intact temperate ecosystems on Earth. GYA was originally defined in the 1970s as the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, which encompassed the minimum range of the grizzly bear. The boundary now includes about 22 million acres (8.9 million ha) in northwestern Wyoming, south central Montana, and eastern Idaho (Figure ES-1). Two national parks, five national forests, three wildlife refuges, 20 counties, and state and private lands lie within the GYA boundary (Figure ES-1). The Tribal Nations of the Eastern Shoshone, Northern Arapaho, Apsa´alooke/Crow, Northern Cheyenne, Shoshone, and Bannock have reservations in and near the Greater Yellowstone Area, and 27 Tribes are formally recognized to have historical connections to the lands and resources of the region. Natural resources sensitive to climate change connect many of the major economic activities of the GYA, including tourism and recreation, agriculture, and energy development.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Using information from global climate models to inform policymaking—The role of the U.S. Geological Survey

This report provides an overview of model-based climate science in a risk management context. In addition, it summarizes how the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will continue to follow best scientific practices and when and how the results of this research will be delivered to the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and other stakeholders to inform policymaking. Climate change is a risk management challenge for society because of the uncertain consequences for natural and human systems across decades to centuries. Climate-related science activities within the USGS emphasize research on adaptation to climate change. This research helps inform adaptive management processes and planning activities within other DOI bureaus and by DOI stakeholders. Global climate models are sophisticated numerical representations of the Earth’s climate system. Research groups from around the world regularly participate in a coordinated effort to produce a suite of climate models. This global effort provides a test bed to assess model performance and analyze projections of future change under various prescribed climate scenarios. These climate scenarios describe a plausible future outcome associated with a specific set of societal actions. Because scenarios are developed in a risk-based framework with a high degree of uncertainty about future societal developments, they are usually not assigned a formal likelihood of occurrence. Examining a range of projected climate outcomes based on multiple scenarios is a recommended best practice because it allows decision makers to better consider both short- and long-term risks and opportunities. As part of its routine science practices, the USGS regularly reviews the state of knowledge of climate science, develops and maintains best practices in using global climate models to project climate change impacts, and provides data and interpretations of potential impacts to the DOI and other stakeholders. Management and policy decisions within the DOI will reflect different tolerances for risk, which has implications for what type of information should be considered and how that information should be used. It is suggested that a followup document be produced that would describe in more detail how these management decisions with differing risk tolerances can be made effectively and consistently in light of an uncertain future.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2019

Application of a regional climate model to assess changes in the climatology of the Eastern US and Cuba associated with historic landcover change

We examine the annual, seasonal, monthly, and diurnal climate responses to the land use change (LUC) in eastern United States and Cuba during four epochs (1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992) with ensemble simulations conducted with the RegCM4 regional climate model that includes the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS1e) surface physics package (Dickinson et al., 1993). We derived the land use (LU) data sets by harmonizing a previous reconstruction (Steyaert & Knox, 2008) with updated observations and modeled potential vegetation. The eight‐member ensembles for each epoch were driven with randomly perturbed 1990–2002 atmospheric boundary conditions derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction global reanalysis. LUC induces statistically significant climate responses across all epochs; the largest changes occur between 1850 and 1920 with the widespread conversion of forests in the United States and forests, grassland, and woody wetlands in Cuba to agriculture. The atmospheric feedback from the aggregated grid‐cell responses attributed to physical and biophysical parameters in BATS1e alters the circulation in the lower atmosphere, thereby propagating the LUC regionally. Depending on the season and location, the altered circulation reinforces, attenuates, or has little effect on surface responses. Relative to pre‐settlement (1650), the 1992 LU produces colder mean annual air temperature (−0.09 ± 0.16 °C) and increased precipitation (0.08 ± 0.09 mm day −1 ) over the United States, warmer (0.08 °C) and wetter (0.03 mm day −1 ) conditions over Florida, and warming (0.32 °C) and drying (−0.03 mm day −1 ) over Cuba, indicating that LUC has played a varying role in climate change over the region.

Florida↗
USGS2019

The dependence of hydroclimate projections in snow‐dominated regions of the western United States on the choice of statistically downscaled climate data

We assess monthly temperature and precipitation data produced by four statistically based techniques that were used to downscale general circulation models (GCMs) in the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We drive a simple water-balance model with the downscaled data to demonstrate the effect of the methods on the cold season hydrology of three, snow dominated regions in the western U.S. Independent of substantial variation among the GCM simulations over the regions (maximum range of ~3.5 °C and 50% change in precipitation), the four methods produce disparate high resolution representations of the magnitude and spatial patterns of future temperature and precipitation simulated by the models that range for up to ~3 °C and 30% change in precipitation that propagate into the hydrologic simulations. Temperature-dependent snowfall, accumulation, and melt in the model are sensitive to how atmospheric lapse rates are applied in the gridded observations that are used to remove the bias in raw GCM temperatures. By the end of the century the same downscaling method (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation) yields a loss of cold-season snowpack of 34% over the Greater Yellowstone Area under a constant lapse rate ( 6.5°C km-1), whereas spatially variable lapse rates nearly double the loss to 66%, highlighting the roll of both lapse rates and high elevation stations in the bias correction dataset. The two newest downscaling methods (Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs and Localized Constructed Analogs) preserve the magnitude of change simulated GCMs better than the other methods and the produce comparable hydrologic projections. Because the downscaled data from the methods vary spatially and by GCM, the downscaled data should be evaluated carefully as part of the process of using downscaled climate products to drive hydrological models over the area of interest.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana,Neva↗
USGS2019

Applying the Community Ice Sheet Model to evaluate PMIP3 LGM climatologies over the North American ice sheets

We apply the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM2) to determine the extent to which the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) temperature and precipitation climatologies from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3 (PMIP3) simulations support the large North American ice sheets that were prescribed as a boundary condition. We force CISM2 with eight PMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs), and an additional model, GENMOM. Seven GCMs simulate LGM climatologies that support positive surface mass balances of the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets (LIS, CIS) consistent with where ice was prescribed in the GCMs. Two GCMs simulate July temperatures that are too warm to support the ice sheets. Four of the nine CISM2 simulations support ice sheets in Beringia, in absence of prescribed ice in the driving GCMs and in disagreement with geologic evidence that indicates the area remained ice-free during the LGM. We test the sensitivity of our results to a range of snow and ice positive degree-day factors, daily, monthly, and climatological temperature and precipitation inputs, and we evaluate the role of albedo and snow in the simulations. Areas with perennial snow in the GCM simulations correspond well to the presence of ice in the CISM2 simulation. GCMs with unrealistically low surface albedos over the LIS yield simulations that fail to simulate realistic ice sheets.

Climate Dynamics↗
USGS2018

Atmospheric and surface climate associated with 1986–2013 wildfires in North America

We analyze climate simulations conducted with the RegCM3 regional climate model on 50‐ and 15‐km model grids to diagnose the dependence of wildfire incidence and area burned variations on monthly climate long‐term means and anomalies over North America for the period 1986–2013. We created a new wildfire database by merging the Fire Program Analysis Fire‐Occurrence Database, the National Interagency Fire Center Fire History Data, and the Canadian National Fire Database. The database includes 2,083,865 daily fire starts that burned a total of 1.25 × 10 8 ha in North America. We derive long‐term climatologies, standardized gamma indices, and composite climate anomalies of atmospheric circulation (500‐hPa height and wind) and various surface fields (e.g., solar radiation, soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit, and latent and sensible heat fluxes) to illustrate the climatology of burned area. The immediate and lagged monthly atmospheric circulation and surface climate anomalies differentiate high‐ and low‐fire years and the role of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in wildfire occurrence. Our approach demonstrates the association of the seasonal cycles of wildfire and climate and the strong role of climatic variability in modulating the seasonal cycle as a control of wildfire on monthly time scales.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2018

A North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) of the Common Era

This study presents a synthesis of century-scale hydroclimate variations in North America for the Common Era (last 2000 years) using new age models of previously published multiple proxy-based paleoclimate data. This North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) examines regional hydroclimate patterns and related environmental indicators, including vegetation, lake water elevation, stream flow and runoff, cave drip rates, biological productivity, assemblages of living organisms, and salinity. Centennial-scale hydroclimate anomalies are obtained by iteratively sampling the proxy data on each of thousands of age model realizations and determining the fractions of possible time series indicating that the century-smoothed data was anomalously wet or dry relative to the 100 BCE to 1900 CE mean. Results suggest regionally asynchronous wet and dry periods over multidecadal to centennial timescales and frequent periods of extended regional drought. Most sites indicate drying during previously documented multicentennial periods of warmer Northern Hemisphere temperatures, particularly in the western U.S., central U.S., and Canada. Two widespread droughts were documented by the NAHS: from 50 BCE to 450 CE and from 800 to 1100 CE. Major hydroclimate reorganizations occurred out of sync with Northern Hemisphere temperature variations and widespread wet and dry anomalies occurred during both warm and cool periods. We present a broad assessment of paleoclimate relationships that highlights the potential influences of internal variability and external forcing and supports a prominent role for Pacific and Atlantic Ocean dynamics on century-scale continental hydroclimate.

Global and Planetary Change↗
USGS2017

The NorWeST summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the western U.S.: A crowd-sourced database and new geospatial tools foster a user-community and predict broad climate warming of rivers and streams

Thermal regimes are fundamental determinants of aquatic ecosystems, which makes description and prediction of temperatures critical during a period of rapid global change. The advent of inexpensive temperature sensors dramatically increased monitoring in recent decades, and although most monitoring is done by individuals for agency‐specific purposes, collectively these efforts constitute a massive distributed sensing array that generates an untapped wealth of data. Using the framework provided by the National Hydrography Dataset, we organized temperature records from dozens of agencies in the western U.S. to create the NorWeST database that hosts >220,000,000 temperature recordings from >22,700 stream and river sites. Spatial‐stream‐network models were fit to a subset of those data that described mean August water temperatures (AugTw) during 63,641 monitoring site‐years to develop accurate temperature models ( r 2 = 0.91; RMSPE = 1.10°C; MAPE = 0.72°C), assess covariate effects, and make predictions at 1 km intervals to create summer climate scenarios. AugTw averaged 14.2°C (SD = 4.0°C) during the baseline period of 1993–2011 in 343,000 km of western perennial streams but trend reconstructions also indicated warming had occurred at the rate of 0.17°C/decade (SD = 0.067°C/decade) during the 40 year period of 1976–2015. Future scenarios suggest continued warming, although variation will occur within and among river networks due to differences in local climate forcing and stream responsiveness. NorWeST scenarios and data are available online in user‐friendly digital formats and are widely used to coordinate monitoring efforts among agencies, for new research, and for conservation planning.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2017

Coastal eolian sand-ramp development related to paleo-sea-level changes during the Latest Pleistocene and Holocene (21–0 ka) in San Miguel Island, California, U.S.A.

Coastal eolian sand ramps (5–130 m elevation) on the northern slope (windward) side of the small San Miguel Island (13 km in W-E length) range in age from late Pleistocene to modern time, though a major hiatus in sand-ramp growth occurred during the early Holocene marine transgression (16–9 ka). The Holocene sand ramps (1–5 m measured thicknesses) currently lack large dune forms, thereby representing deflated erosional remnants, locally covering thicker late Pleistocene sand-ramp deposits. The ramp sand was initially supplied from the adjacent island-shelf platform, extending about 20 km north of the present coastline. The sand-ramp deposits and interbedded loess soils were 14 C dated using 112 samples from 32 archaeological sites and other geologic sections. Latest Pleistocene sand ramps (66–18 ka) were derived from across-shelf eolian sand transport during marine low stands. Shoreward wave transport supplied remobilized late Pleistocene sand from the inner shelf to Holocene beaches, where dominant NW winds supplied sand to the sand ramps. The onset dates of the sand-ramp deposition in San Miguel are 7.2 ± 1.5 ka (sample n = 14). The internal strata dates in the vertically accreting sand ramps are 3.4 ± 1.7 ka ( n = 34). The sand ramps in San Miguel show wide-scale termination of sand supply in the latest Holocene time. The sand-ramp top dates or burial dates are 1.7 ± 0.9 ka ( n = 28). The latest Holocene sand ramps are truncated along most of the island's northern coastline, indicating recent losses of nearshore sand reserves to onshore, alongshore, and, possibly, offshore sand sinks. The truncated sand ramps in San Miguel Island and in other sand-depleted marine coastlines provide warnings about future beach erosion and/or shoreline retreat from accelerated sea-level rise accompanying predicted global warming.

California↗
USGS2016

Implementation and evaluation of a monthly water balance model over the US on an 800 m grid

We simulate the 1950–2010 water balance for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) with a monthly water balance model (MWBM) using the 800 m Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data set as model input. We employed observed snow and streamflow data sets to guide modification of the snow and potential evapotranspiration components in the default model and to evaluate model performance. Based on various metrics and sensitivity tests, the modified model yields reasonably good simulations of seasonal snowpack in the West (range of bias of ±50 mm at 68% of 713 SNOTEL sites), the gradients and magnitudes of actual evapotranspiration, and runoff (median correlation of 0.83 and median Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.6 between simulated and observed annual time series at 1427 USGS gage sites). The model generally performs well along the Pacific Coast, the high elevations of the Basin and Range and over the Midwest and East, but not as well over the dry areas of the Southwest and upper Plains regions due, in part, to the apportioning of direct versus delayed runoff. Sensitivity testing and application of the MWBM to simulate the future water balance at four National Parks when driven by 30 climate models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) demonstrate that the model is useful for evaluating first-order, climate driven hydrologic change on monthly and annual time scales.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2016

Slow climate velocities of mountain streams portend their role as refugia for cold-water biodiversity

The imminent demise of montane species is a recurrent theme in the climate change literature, particularly for aquatic species that are constrained to networks and elevational rather than latitudinal retreat as temperatures increase. Predictions of widespread species losses, however, have yet to be fulfilled despite decades of climate change, suggesting that trends are much weaker than anticipated and may be too subtle for detection given the widespread use of sparse water temperature datasets or imprecise surrogates like elevation and air temperature. Through application of large water-temperature databases evaluated for sensitivity to historical air-temperature variability and computationally interpolated to provide high-resolution thermal habitat information for a 222,000-km network, we estimate a less dire thermal plight for cold-water species within mountains of the northwestern United States. Stream warming rates and climate velocities were both relatively low for 1968–2011 (average warming rate = 0.101 °C/decade; median velocity = 1.07 km/decade) when air temperatures warmed at 0.21 °C/decade. Many cold-water vertebrate species occurred in a subset of the network characterized by low climate velocities, and three native species of conservation concern occurred in extremely cold, slow velocity environments (0.33–0.48 km/decade). Examination of aggressive warming scenarios indicated that although network climate velocities could increase, they remain low in headwaters because of strong local temperature gradients associated with topographic controls. Better information about changing hydrology and disturbance regimes is needed to complement these results, but rather than being climatic cul-de-sacs, many mountain streams appear poised to be redoubts for cold-water biodiversity this century.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2016

Accommodation space in a high-wave-energy inner-shelf during the Holocene marine transgression: Correlation of onshore and offshore inner-shelf deposits (0–12 ka) in the Columbia River littoral cell system, Washington and Oregon, USA

The Columbia River Littoral Cell (CRLC), a high-wave-energy littoral system, extends 160 km alongshore, generally north of the large Columbia River, and 10–15 km in across-shelf distance from paleo-beach backshores to about 50 m present water depths. Onshore drill holes (19 in number and 5–35 m in subsurface depth) and offshore vibracores (33 in number and 1–5 m in subsurface depth) constrain inner-shelf sand grain sizes (sample means 0.13–0.25 mm) and heavy mineral source indicators (> 90% Holocene Columbia River sand) of the inner-shelf facies (≥ 90% fine sand). Stratigraphic correlation of the transgressive ravinement surface in onshore drill holes and in offshore seismic reflection profiles provide age constraints (0–12 ka) on post-ravinement inner-shelf deposits, using paleo-sea level curves and radiocarbon dates. Post-ravinement deposit thickness (1–50 m) and long-term sedimentation rates (0.4–4.4 m ka − 1 ) are positively correlated to the cross-shelf gradients (0.36–0.63%) of the transgressive ravinement surface. The total post-ravinement fill volume of fine littoral sand (2.48 × 10 10 m 3 ) in the inner-shelf represents about 2.07 × 10 6 m 3 year − 1 fine sand accumulation rate during the last 12 ka, or about one third of the estimated middle- to late-Holocene Columbia River bedload or sand discharge (5–6 × 10 6 m 3 year − 1 ) to the littoral zone. The fine sand accumulation in the inner-shelf represents post-ravinement accommodation space resulting from 1) geometry and depth of the transgressive ravinement surface, 2) post-ravinement sea-level rise, and 3) fine sand dispersal in the inner-shelf by combined high-wave-energy and geostrophic flow/down-welling drift currents during major winter storms.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2016

Final Laurentide ice-sheet deglaciation and Holocene climate-sea level change

Despite elevated summer insolation forcing during the early Holocene, global ice sheets retained nearly half of their volume from the Last Glacial Maximum, as indicated by deglacial records of global mean sea level (GMSL). Partitioning the GMSL rise among potential sources requires accurate dating of ice-sheet extent to estimate ice-sheet volume. Here, we date the final retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet with 10 Be surface exposure ages for the Labrador Dome, the largest of the remnant Laurentide ice domes during the Holocene. We show that the Labrador Dome deposited moraines during North Atlantic cold events at ∼10.3 ka, 9.3 ka and 8.2 ka, suggesting that these regional climate events helped stabilize the retreating Labrador Dome in the early Holocene. After Hudson Bay became seasonally ice free at ∼8.2 ka, the majority of Laurentide ice-sheet melted abruptly within a few centuries. We demonstrate through high-resolution regional climate model simulations that the thermal properties of a seasonally ice-free Hudson Bay would have increased Laurentide ice-sheet ablation and thus contributed to the subsequent rapid Labrador Dome retreat. Finally, our new 10 Be chronology indicates full Laurentide ice-sheet had completely deglaciated by 6.7 ± 0.4 ka, which re quires that Antarctic ice sheets contributed 3.6–6.5 m to GMSL rise since 6.3–7.1 ka.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2015

Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes

Arctic land-cover changes induced by recent global climate change (e.g., expansion of woody vegetation into tundra and effects of permafrost degradation) are expected to generate further feedbacks to the climate system. Past changes can be used to assess our understanding of feedback mechanisms through a combination of process modeling and paleo-observations. The subcontinental region of Beringia (northeastern Siberia, Alaska, and northwestern Canada) was largely ice-free at the peak of deglacial warming and experienced both major vegetation change and loss of permafrost when many arctic regions were still ice covered. The evolution of Beringian climate at this time was largely driven by global features, such as the amplified seasonal cycle of Northern Hemisphere insolation and changes in global ice volume and atmospheric composition, but changes in regional land-surface controls, such as the widespread development of thaw lakes, the replacement of tundra by deciduous forest or woodland, and the flooding of the Bering–Chukchi land bridge, were probably also important. We examined the sensitivity of Beringia's early Holocene climate to these regional-scale controls using a regional climate model (RegCM). Lateral and oceanic boundary conditions were provided by global climate simulations conducted using the GENESIS V2.01 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a mixed-layer ocean. We carried out two present-day simulations of regional climate – one with modern and one with 11 ka geography – plus another simulation for 6 ka. In addition, we performed five ~ 11 ka climate simulations, each driven by the same global AGCM boundary conditions: (i) 11 ka Control , which represents conditions just prior to the major transitions (exposed land bridge, no thaw lakes or wetlands, widespread tundra vegetation), (ii) sea-level rise, which employed present-day continental outlines, (iii) vegetation change, with deciduous needleleaf and deciduous broadleaf boreal vegetation types distributed as suggested by the paleoecological record, (iv) thaw lakes, which used the present-day distribution of lakes and wetlands, and (v) post-11 ka All , incorporating all boundary conditions changed in experiments (ii)–(iv). We find that regional-scale controls strongly mediate the climate responses to changes in the large-scale controls, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in the simulated climate changes. The change from tundra to deciduous woodland produces additional widespread warming in spring and early summer over that induced by the 11 ka insolation regime alone, and lakes and wetlands produce modest and localized cooling in summer and warming in winter. The greatest effect is the flooding of the land bridge and shelves, which produces generally cooler conditions in summer but warmer conditions in winter and is most clearly manifest on the flooded shelves and in eastern Beringia. By 6 ka continued amplification of the seasonal cycle of insolation and loss of the Laurentide ice sheet produce temperatures similar to or higher than those at 11 ka, plus a longer growing season.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model

We apply GENMOM, a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model, to simulate eight equilibrium time slices at 3000-year intervals for the past 21 000 years forced by changes in Earth–Sun geometry, atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), continental ice sheets, and sea level. Simulated global cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is 3.8 ◦C and the rate of post-glacial warming is in overall agreement with recently published temperature reconstructions. The greatest rate of warming occurs between 15 and 12 ka (2.4 ◦C over land, 0.7 ◦C over oceans, and 1.4 ◦C globally) in response to changes in radiative forcing from the diminished extent of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets and increases in GHGs and NH summer insolation. The modeled LGM and 6 ka temperature and precipitation climatologies are generally consistent with proxy reconstructions, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations, and other paleoclimate data–model analyses. The model does not capture the mid-Holocene “thermal maximum” and gradual cooling to preindustrial (PI) global temperature found in the data. Simulated monsoonal precipitation in North Africa peaks between 12 and 9 ka at values ∼ 50 % greater than those of the PI, and Indian monsoonal precipitation peaks at 12 and 9 ka at values ∼ 45 % greater than the PI. GENMOM captures the reconstructed LGM extent of NH and Southern Hemisphere (SH) sea ice. The simulated present-day Antarctica Circumpolar Current (ACC) is ∼ 48 % weaker than the observed (62 versus 119 Sv). The simulated present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of 19.3 ± 1.4 Sv on the Bermuda Rise (33◦ N) is comparable with observed value of 18.7 ± 4.8 Sv. AMOC at 33◦ N is reduced by ∼ 15 % during the LGM, and the largest post-glacial increase (∼ 11 %) occurs during the 15 ka time slice.

Climate of the Past↗
USGS2015

Web based visualization of large climate data sets

We have implemented the USGS National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV), which is an easy-to-use web application that displays future projections from global climate models over the United States at the state, county and watershed scales. We incorporate the NASA NEX-DCP30 statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation for 30 global climate models being used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hydrologic variables we simulated using a simple water-balance model. Our application summarizes very large, complex data sets at scales relevant to resource managers and citizens and makes climate-change projection information accessible to users of varying skill levels. Tens of terabytes of high-resolution climate and water-balance data are distilled to compact binary format summary files that are used in the application. To alleviate slow response times under high loads, we developed a map caching technique that reduces the time it takes to generate maps by several orders of magnitude. The reduced access time scales to >500 concurrent users. We provide code examples that demonstrate key aspects of data processing, data exporting/importing and the caching technique used in the NCCV.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗