When models meet managers: Examples from geomorphology
No abstract available.
California, Oregon, Wisconsin↗
Geology topics
Steven P. Schilling
Publications and source records attributed to Steven P. Schilling.
Volcano-Monitoring Instrumentation in the United States, 2008
The United States is one of the most volcanically active countries in the world. According to the global volcanism database of the Smithsonian Institution, the United States (including its Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) is home to about 170 volcanoes that are in an eruptive phase, have erupted in historical time, or have not erupted recently but are young enough (eruptions within the past 10,000 years) to be capable of reawakening. From 1980 through 2008, 30 of these volcanoes erupted, several repeatedly. Volcano monitoring in the United States is carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program, which operates a system of five volcano observatories-Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO), Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), Long Valley Observatory (LVO), and Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO). The observatories issue public alerts about conditions and hazards at U.S. volcanoes in support of the USGS mandate under P.L. 93-288 (Stafford Act) to provide timely warnings of potential volcanic disasters to the affected populace and civil authorities. To make efficient use of the Nation's scientific resources, the volcano observatories operate in partnership with universities and other governmental agencies through various formal agreements. The Consortium of U.S. Volcano Observatories (CUSVO) was established in 2001 to promote scientific cooperation among the Federal, academic, and State agencies involved in observatory operations. Other groups also contribute to volcano monitoring by sponsoring long-term installation of geophysical instruments at some volcanoes for specific research projects. This report describes a database of information about permanently installed ground-based instruments used by the U.S. volcano observatories to monitor volcanic activity (unrest and eruptions). The purposes of this Volcano-Monitoring Instrumentation Database (VMID) are to (1) document the Nation's existing, ground-based, volcano-monitoring capabilities, (2) answer queries within a geospatial framework about the nature of the instrumentation, and (3) provide a benchmark for planning future monitoring improvements. The VMID is not an archive of the data collected by monitoring instruments, nor is it intended to keep track of whether a station is temporarily unavailable due to telemetry or equipment problems. Instead, it is a compilation of basic information about each instrument such as location, type, and sponsoring agency. Typically, instruments installed expressly for volcano monitoring are emplaced within about 20 kilometers (km) of a volcanic center; however, some more distant instruments (as far away as 100 km) can be used under certain circumstances and therefore are included in the database. Not included is information about satellite-based and airborne sensors and temporarily deployed instrument arrays, which also are used for volcano monitoring but do not lend themselves to inclusion in a geospatially organized compilation of sensor networks. This Open-File Report is provided in two parts: (1) an Excel spreadsheet (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2009/1165/) containing the version of the Volcano-Monitoring Instrumentation Database current through 31 December 2008 and (2) this text (in Adobe PDF format), which serves as metadata for the VMID. The disclaimer for the VMID is in appendix 1 of the text. Updated versions of the VMID will be posted on the Web sites of the Consortium of U.S. Volcano Observatories (http://www.cusvo.org/) and the USGS Volcano Hazards Program http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/activity/data/index.php.
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, New↗
Photographic documentation of the evolution of Crater Glacier, Mount St. Helens, Washington, September 2006–November 2009
Lava-dome emplacement through a glacier was observed for the first time during the 2004-08 eruption of Mount St. Helens and documented using photography, photogrammetry, and geodetic measurements. Previously published reports present such documentation through September 2006; this report extends that documentation until November 2009.
Washington↗
Volcano hazards in the Mount Jefferson region, Oregon
Mount Jefferson is a prominent feature of the landscape seen from highways east and west of the Cascades. Mount Jefferson (one of thirteen major volcanic centers in the Cascade Range) has erupted repeatedly for hundreds of thousands of years, with its last eruptive episode during the last major glaciation which culminated about 15,000 years ago. Geologic evidence shows that Mount Jefferson is capable of large explosive eruptions. The largest such eruption occurred between 35,000 and 100,000 years ago, and caused ash to fall as far away as the present-day town of Arco in southeast Idaho. Although there has not been an eruption at Mount Jefferson for some time, experience at explosive volcanoes elsewhere suggests that Mount Jefferson cannot be regarded as extinct. If Mount Jefferson erupts again, areas close to the eruptive vent will be severely affected, and even areas tens of kilometers (tens of miles) downstream along river valleys or hundreds of kilometers (hundreds of miles) downwind may be at risk. Numerous small volcanoes occupy the area between Mount Jefferson and Mount Hood to the north, and between Mount Jefferson and the Three Sisters region to the south. These small volcanoes tend not to pose the far-reaching hazards associated with Mount Jefferson, but are nonetheless locally important. A concern at Mount Jefferson, but not at the smaller volcanoes, is the possibility that small to- moderate sized landslides could occur even during periods of no volcanic activity. Such landslides may transform as they move into lahars (watery flows of rock, mud, and debris) that can inundate areas far downstream. The population at immediate risk in the Mount Jefferson region is small, but these residents as well as other people who visit the area for recreation and work purposes should be aware of the potential hazards. Probably the greatest concern in the Mount Jefferson region is the possibility that large lahars might enter reservoirs on either side of the volcano, namely, Detroit Lake to the west and Lake Billy Chinook to the east. Lahars entering these lakes could set up large waves that could overtop dams and possibly cause dam failure, with catastrophic effects downstream. Such events have very low probabilities but great potential consequences. This report describes the kinds of hazardous geologic events that have occurred in the Mount Jefferson area in the past and shows, in the accompanying volcano-hazards-zonation maps, which areas will likely be at risk when hazardous events occur again in the future.
Oregon↗
Objective delineation of lahar-inundation hazard zones
A new method of delineating lahar hazard zones in valleys that head on volcano flanks provides a rapid, objective, reproducible alternative to traditional methods. The rationale for the method derives from scaling analyses of generic lahar paths and statistical analyses of 27 lahar paths documented at nine volcanoes. Together these analyses yield semiempirical equations that predict inundated valley cross-sectional areas (A) and planimetric areas (B) as functions of lahar volume (V) . The predictive equations ( A = 0.05 V 2/3 and B = 200 V 2/3 ) provide all information necessary to calculate and plot inundation limits on topographic maps. By using a range of prospective lahar volumes to evaluate A and B , a range of inundation limits can be plotted for lahars of increasing volume and decreasing probability. Resulting hazard maps show graphically that lahar-inundation potentials are highest near volcanoes and along valley thalwegs, and diminish gradually as distances from volcanoes and elevations above valley floors increase. We automate hazard-zone delineation by embedding the predictive equations in a geographic information system (GIS) computer program that uses digital elevation models of topography. Lahar hazard zones computed for Mount Rainier, Washington, mimic those constructed on the basis of intensive field investigations. The computed hazard zones illustrate the potentially widespread impact of large lahars, which on average inundate planimetric areas 20 times larger than those inundated by rock avalanches of comparable volume.
Washington↗
Volcano hazards at Newberry Volcano, Oregon
Newberry volcano is a broad shield volcano located in central Oregon. It has been built by thousands of eruptions, beginning about 600,000 years ago. At least 25 vents on the flanks and summit have been active during several eruptive episodes of the past 10,000 years. The most recent eruption 1,300 years ago produced the Big Obsidian Flow. Thus, the volcano's long history and recent activity indicate that Newberry will erupt in the future. The most-visited part of the volcano is Newberry Crater, a volcanic depression or caldera at the summit of the volcano. Seven campgrounds, two resorts, six summer homes, and two major lakes (East and Paulina Lakes) are nestled in the caldera. The caldera has been the focus of Newberry's volcanic activity for at least the past 10,000 years. Other eruptions during this time have occurred along a rift zone on the volcano's northwest flank and, to a lesser extent, the south flank. Many striking volcanic features lie in Newberry National Volcanic Monument, which is managed by the U.S. Forest Service. The monument includes the caldera and extends along the northwest rift zone to the Deschutes River. About 30 percent of the area within the monument is covered by volcanic products erupted during the past 10,000 years from Newberry volcano. Newberry volcano is presently quiet. Local earthquake activity (seismicity) has been trifling throughout historic time. Subterranean heat is still present, as indicated by hot springs in the caldera and high temperatures encountered during exploratory drilling for geothermal energy. This report describes the kinds of hazardous geologic events that might occur in the future at Newberry volcano. A hazard-zonation map is included to show the areas that will most likely be affected by renewed eruptions. In terms of our own lifetimes, volcanic events at Newberry are not of day-to-day concern because they occur so infrequently; however, the consequences of some types of eruptions can be severe. When Newberry volcano becomes restless, be it tomorrow or many years from now, the eruptive scenarios described herein can inform planners, emergency response personnel, and citizens about the kinds and sizes of events to expect.
Oregon↗