Geology topics
Steven C. Amstrup
Publications and source records attributed to Steven C. Amstrup.
The bear that never was
From campfire stories to sensational books detailing gory attacks, Alaska's bears have long been maligned as deadly marauders capable of acquiring a taste for human flesh. Tall tales make for good storytelling but force bad reputations on the bears. When myth is compared to fact, the three North American's leading bear experts show that Alaska's three bear species are not the huge, unpredictable monsters they often are made out to be. Here, Smith, Amstrup, and Herrero examine the conventional wisdom people often hear regarding bears in the Great Land.
Introduction to the handbook
In September of 1802, Pierre Simon Laplace (1749–1827) used a capture– recapture type of approach to estimate the size of the human population of France (Cochran 1978; Stigler 1986). At that time, live births were recorded for all of France on an annual basis. In the year prior to September 1802, Laplace estimated the number of such births to be approximately X = 1,000,000. These newly born individuals constituted a marked population. Laplace then obtained census and live birth data from several communities “with zealous and intelligent mayors” across all of France. Recognizing some variation in annual birth rates, Laplace summed the number of births reported in these sample communities for the three years leading up to the time of his estimate, and divided by three to determine that there were x = 71,866 births per year (marked individuals) in those communities. The ratio of these marked individuals to the total number of individuals in the sampled communities, y = 2,037,615, was then the estimate p = 71,866/2,037,615 = 0.0353 of the proportion of the total population in France that was newly born. On this basis, the one million marked individuals in the whole of France is related to the total population N as N p ≈ 1,000,000 so that N ≈ 1,000,000/0.0353 =28,328,612 This estimation procedure is equivalent to the Lincoln-Peterson capture-recapture estimator described in chapter 2.
Using satellite radiotelemetry data to delineate and manage wildlife populations
The greatest promise of radiotelemetry always has been a better understanding of animal movements. Telemetry has helped us know when animals are active, how active they are, how far and how fast they move, the geographic areas they occupy, and whether individuals vary in these traits. Unfortunately, the inability to estimate the error in animals utilization distributions (UDs), has prevented probabilistic linkage of movements data, which are always retrospective, with future management actions. We used the example of the harvested population of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) in the Southern Beaufort Sea to illustrate a method that provides that linkage. We employed a 2-dimensional Gaussian kernel density estimator to smooth and scale frequencies of polar bear radio locations within cells of a grid overlying our study area. True 2-dimensional smoothing allowed us to create accurate descriptions of the UDs of individuals and groups of bears. We used a new method of clustering, based upon the relative use collared bears made of each cell in our grid, to assign individual animals to populations. We applied the fast Fourier transform to make bootstrapped estimates of the error in UDs computationally feasible. Clustering and kernel smoothing identified 3 populations of polar bears in the region between Wrangel Island, Russia, and Banks Island, Canada. The relative probability of occurrence of animals from each population varied significantly among grid cells distributed across the study area. We displayed occurrence probabilities as contour maps wherein each contour line corresponded with a change in relative probability. Only at the edges of our study area and in some offshore regions were bootstrapped estimates of error in occurrence probabilities too high to allow prediction. Error estimates, which also were displayed as contours, allowed us to show that occurrence probabilities did not vary by season. Near Barrow, Alaska, 50% of bears observed are predicted to be from the Chukchi Sea population and 50% from the Southern Beaufort Sea population. At Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, Canada, 50% are from the Southern Beaufort Sea and 50% from the Northern Beaufort Sea population. The methods described here will aid managers of all wildlife that can be studied by telemetry to allocate harvests and other human perturbations to the appropriate populations, make risk assessments, and predict impacts of human activities. They will aid researchers by providing the refined descriptions of study populations that are necessary for population estimation and other investigative tasks. Arctic, Beaufort Sea, boundaries, clustering, Fourier transform, kernel, management, polar bears, population delineation, radiotelemetry, satellite, smoothing, Ursus maritimus
Using Forward Looking Infrared (FLIR) imagery to detect polar bear maternal dens: Operations manual
Recent research has shown that Forward Looking Infia-Red (FLIR) imagery can detect polar bear dens despite total snow cover over their deming habitat. FLIR imagers detect a AT or difference in temperature between objects in the imager's field of view. During the Arctic winter, the groundlsnow surface is typically cold, providing a dark background in the FLIR imager. Sources of heat appear as lighter or white areas. Dens, in particular, appear as small bright "hotspots", usually with kzy boundaries (Appendix 1). Most commonly, since bears chose deep snow drifts for deming, dens can be distinguished from the normally dark (cold) band of drifted snow surrounding them. This innovation has the potential to prevent human activities fiom disturbing deming polar bears by allowing managers to discover dens before potentially disruptive activities begin. This is important because expanding resource extraction in Alaska's Arctic regions may threaten the welfare of polar bears and their habitat. In recent years, exploration and development activities have expanded east and west of the original oil fields of Prudhoe Bay. Hydrocarbon extraction is now occurring or planned along much of the central Beaufort Sea coast. As development continues into the National Petroleum Reserve, the scope of expansion could include 213 of the northern coastal region of Alaska. Industrial activities are a potential threat to polar bears, especially as they might disturb bears in maternal dens (Lentfer and Hensel 1980, Stirling 1990, Stirling and Andriashek 1992, Amstrup 1993, Amstrup and Gardner 1994). As the number of humans and their activities have increased in recent years, there has been a concurrent increase in the number of female polar bears deming on land (Amstrup and Gardner 1994). Therefore, the probability of disrupting maternal deming can be expected to increase in the future. Using FLIR surveys to detect bears in dens could reduce or eliminate that probability. The purpose of this manual is to provide agency and private sector land managers with the information necessary to perform effective FLIR surveys to detect maternal dens. A list of personnel who can provide additional information is provided in Appendix 2.
Using discrete choice modeling to generate resource selection functions for female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea
Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) depend on ice-covered seas to satisfy life history requirements. Modern threats to polar bears include oil spills in the marine environment and changes in ice composition resulting from climate change. Managers need practical models that explain the distribution of bears in order to assess the impacts of these threats. We explored the use of discrete choice models to describe habitat selection by female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea. Using stepwise procedures we generated resource selection models of habitat use. Sea ice characteristics and ocean depths at known polar bear locations were compared to the same features at randomly selected locations. Models generated for each of four seasons confirmed complexities of habitat use by polar bears and their response to numerous factors. Bears preferred shallow water areas where different ice types intersected. Variation among seasons was reflected mainly in differential selection of total ice concentration, ice stages, floe sizes, and their interactions. Distance to the nearest ice interface was a significant term in models for three seasons. Water depth was selected as a significant term in all seasons, possibly reflecting higher productivity in shallow water areas. Preliminary tests indicate seasonal models can predict polar bear distribution based on prior sea ice data.
Using the bootstrap and fast Fourier transform to estimate confidence intervals of 2D kernel densities
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Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age
Around the world, a great deal of effort is expended each year to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, population size has proven to be one of the most intractable parameters to estimate. The capture-recapture estimation models most commonly used (of the Jolly-Seber type) are complicated and require numerous, sometimes questionable, assumptions. The derived estimates usually have large variances and lack consistency over time. In capture–recapture studies of long-lived animals, the ages of captured animals can often be determined with great accuracy and relative ease. We show how to incorporate age information into size estimates for open populations, where the size changes through births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The proposed method allows more precise estimates of population size than the usual models, and it can provide these estimates from two sample occasions rather than the three usually required. Moreover, this method does not require specialized programs for capture-recapture data; researchers can derive their estimates using the logistic regression module in any standard statistical package.
Detecting denning polar bears with forward looking infra-red imagery (FLIR)
Polar bears give birth in snow dens in mid winter, and remain in dens until early spring. Survival and development of neonates is dependent on the stable environment within the maternal den. Petroleum related activities currently span approximately 200 km of the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coastal area. New and proposed developments are expected to dramatically expand the area influenced by petroleum activities. These activities are a potential threat to polar bears, especially as they might disturb denning females. In order to help manage and mitigate potential disruptions of polar bear denning, we tested whether we could detect heat, rising through the roofs of maternal dens, with forward-looking infrared (FLIR) viewing devices. We tested detectability of dens by flying transects, over habitats known to hold dens, with FLIR equipped aircraft. We recorded flight and weather conditions at each observation and tallied whether or not the den was detected.
The use of sea ice habitat by female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea
Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) depend on ice-covered seas to satisfy life history requirements. Modern threats to polar bears include oil spills in the marine environment and changes in ice composition resulting from climate change. Managers need practical models that explain the distribution of bears in order to assess the impacts of these threats. We used stepwise procedures to create resource selection models of habitat use for radio-collared female polar bears in the Beaufort Sea. Sea ice characteristics and ocean depths at known polar bear locations were compared to the same features at randomly selected locations. Models generated for each of four seasons confirmed complexities of habitat use by polar bears and their response to numerous factors. Bears preferred shallow water areas where ice concentrations were > 80 % and different ice types intersected. Variation among seasons was reflected mainly in differential selection of ice stages, floe sizes, and their interactions. Water depth, total ice concentration and distance to the nearest interface between different ice types were significant terms in models for most seasons. Variation in ice stage and form also appeared in three models, and several interaction effects were identified. Habitat selection by polar bears is likely related to prey abundance and availability. Use of habitats in shallow water possibly reflects higher productivity in those areas. Habitat use in close proximity to ice edges is probably related to greater access of prey in those habitats.
Genetic structure of the world's polar bear populations
We studied genetic structure in polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) populations by typing a sample of 473 individuals spanning the species distribution at 16 highly variable microsatellite loci. No genetic discontinuities were found that would be consistent with evolutionarily significant periods of isolation between groups. Direct comparison of movement data and genetic data from the Canadian Arctic revealed a highly significant correlation. Genetic data generally supported existing population (management unit) designations, although there were two cases where genetic data failed to differentiate between pairs of populations previously resolved by movement data. A sharp contrast was found between the minimal genetic structure observed among populations surrounding the polar basin and the presence of several marked genetic discontinuities in the Canadian Arctic. The discontinuities in the Canadian Arctic caused the appearance of four genetic clusters of polar bear populations. These clusters vary in total estimated population size from 100 to over 10 000, and the smallest may merit a relatively conservative management strategy in consideration of its apparent isolation. We suggest that the observed pattern of genetic discontinuities has developed in response to differences in the seasonal distribution and pattern of sea ice habitat and the effects of these differences on the distribution and abundance of seals.
Polar Bears
Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are hunted throughout most of their range. In addition to hunting polar bears of the Beaufort Sea region are exposed to mineral and petroleum extraction and related human activities such as shipping road-building, and seismic testing (Stirling 1990). Little was known at the start of this project about how polar bears move about in their environment, and although it was understood that many bears travel across political borders, the boundaries of populations had not been delineated (Amstrup 1986, Amstrup et al. 1986, Amstrup and DeMaster 1988, Garner et al. 1994, Amstrup 1995, Amstrup et al. 1995, Amstrup 2000). As human populations increase and demands for polar bears and other arctic resources escalate, managers must know the sizes and distributions of the polar bear populations. Resource managers also need reliable estimates of breeding rates, reproductive intervals, litter sizes, and survival of young and adults. Our objectives for this research were 1) to determine the seasonal and annual movements of polar bears in the Beaufort Sea, 2) to define the boundaries of the population(s) using this region, 3) to determine the size and status of the Beaufort Sea polar bear population, and 4) to establish reproduction and survival rates (Amstrup 2000).
Remote identification of polar bear maternal den habitat in northern Alaska
Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) give birth in dens of ice and snow to protect their altricial young. During the snow-free season, we visited 25 den sites located previously by radiotelemetry and characterized the den site physiognomy. Seven dens occurred in habitats with minimal relief. Eighteen dens (72%) were in coastal and river banks. These "banks" were identifiable on aerial photographs. We then searched high-resolution aerial photographs (n=3000) for habitats similar to those of the 18 dens. On aerial photos, we mapped 1782 km of bank habitats suitable for denning. Bank habitats comprised 0.18% of our study area between the Colville River and the Tamayariak River in northern Alaska. The final map, which correctly identified 88% of bank denning habitat in this region, will help minimize the potential for disruptions of maternal dens by winter petroleum exploration activities.
Comparing movement patterns of satellite-tagged male and female polar bears
Satellite radiotelemetry has provided great insights into the movements and behaviors of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). The diameter of the neck of adult male polar bears exceeds that of their head, however, and radio collars slip off. This has limited collection of movement information to that from radio-collared females. To overcome this difficulty and gather information about their movements, we surgically implanted satellite radio transmitters into 7 male polar bears during 1996 and 1997. We compared movements of implanted males with those of 104 adult females radio-collared between 1985 and 1995. Transmitters were implanted under the skin on the midline of the top of the neck and were equipped with percutaneous antennae. Implanted transmitters operated for up to 161 days providing 3217 satellite relocations. While transmitting, radios implanted in males provided a larger proportion of the highest quality category of position fixes than was obtained from radio-collared females. However, all implanted radios ceased transmitting before reaching their projected life-span. The abrupt termination of transmission from implanted radios suggested mechanical rather than electronic failure. Mean rates of short-term movement for males (1.18 km/h) were lower than for solitary females, females with cubs, and females with yearlings (1.70, 1.84, and 1.95 km/h, respectively). Net geographic movements from the beginning to the end of each month were comparable for males (mean = 135 km) and females (mean = 114, 152, and 168 km). Mean azimuths of these net movements also appeared to be similar. Monthly activity-area sizes for males (mean = 8541 km 2 ) were comparable to those for females (mean = 3698, 9397, and 10 585 km 2 ) during the time period of comparison. In contrast to the other movement measures, males traveled longer mean distances (387 km) each month than did females (217, 289, and 302 km). Movements of males, it appears, were more directed than those of females, but males confined their travels to similar-sized areas.
Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models
One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.
Polar bears in the Beaufort Sea: A 30-year mark-recapture case history
Knowledge of population size and trend is necessary to manage anthropogenic risks to polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Despite capturing over 1,025 females between 1967 and 1998, previously calculated estimates of the size of the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) population have been unreliable. We improved estimates of numbers of polar bears by modeling heterogeneity in capture probability with covariates. Important covariates referred to the year of the study, age of the bear, capture effort, and geographic location. Our choice of best approximating model was based on the inverse relationship between variance in parameter estimates and likelihood of the fit and suggested a growth from ≈ 500 to over 1,000 females during this study. The mean coefficient of variation on estimates for the last decade of the study was 0.16—the smallest yet derived. A similar model selection approach is recommended for other projects where a best model is not identified by likelihood criteria alone.