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Stephen Personius

Publications and source records attributed to Stephen Personius.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

Holocene rupture history of the central Teton fault at Leigh Lake; Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming

Prominent scarps on Pinedale glacial surfaces along the eastern base of the Teton Range confirm latest Pleistocene to Holocene surface‐faulting earthquakes on the Teton fault, but the timing of these events is only broadly constrained by a single previous paleoseismic study. We excavated two trenches at the Leigh Lake site near the center of the Teton fault to address open questions about earthquake timing and rupture length. Structural and stratigraphic evidence indicates two surface‐faulting earthquakes at the site that postdate deglacial sediments dated by radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence to ∼10–11 ka⁠. Earthquake LL2 occurred at ∼10.0 ka (9.7–10.4 ka; 95% confidence range) and LL1 at ∼5.9 ka (4.8–7.1 ka; 95%). LL2 predates an earthquake at ∼8ka identified in the previous paleoseismic investigation at Granite Canyon. LL1 corresponds to the most recent Granite Canyon earthquake at ∼4.7–7.9 ka (95% confidence range). Our results are consistent with the previously documented long‐elapsed time since the most recent Teton fault rupture and expand the fault’s earthquake history into the early Holocene.

Wyoming

Variable normal-fault rupture behavior, northern Lost River fault zone, Idaho, USA

The 1983 Mw 6.9 Borah Peak earthquake generated ∼36 km of surface rupture along the Thousand Springs and Warm Springs sections of the Lost River fault zone (LRFZ, Idaho, USA). Although the rupture is a well-studied example of multisegment surface faulting, ambiguity remains regarding the degree to which a bedrock ridge and branch fault at the Willow Creek Hills influenced rupture progress. To explore the 1983 rupture in the context of the structural complexity, we reconstruct the spatial distribution of surface displacements for the northern 16 km of the 1983 rupture and prehistoric ruptures in the same reach of the LRFZ using 252 vertical-separation measurements made from high-resolution (5–10-cm-pixel) digital surface models. Our results suggest the 1983 Warm Springs rupture had an average vertical displacement of ∼0.3–0.4 m and released ∼6% of the seismic moment estimated for the Borah Peak earthquake and <12% of the moment accumulated on the Warm Springs section since its last prehistoric earthquake. The 1983 Warm Springs rupture is best described as the moderate-displacement continuation of primary rupture from the Thousand Springs section into and through a zone of structural complexity. Historical and prehistoric displacements show that the Willow Creek Hills have impeded some, but not all ruptures. We speculate that rupture termination or penetration is controlled by the history of LRFZ moment release, displacement, and rupture direction. Our results inform the interpretation of paleoseismic data from near zones of normal-fault structural complexity and demonstrate that these zones may modulate rather than impede rupture displacement.

Idaho

Paleoseismic results from the Alpine site, Wasatch fault zone: Timing and displacement data for six holocene earthquakes at the Salt Lake City–Provo segment boundary

To improve the characterization of Holocene earthquakes on the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ), we conducted light detection and ranging (lidar)‐based neotectonic mapping and excavated a paleoseismic trench across an 8‐m‐high fault scarp near Alpine, Utah, located &lt; 1 &#x2009;&#x2009; km "> < 1 km <1 km south of the boundary between the Salt Lake City and Provo segments (SLCS and PS). We document evidence for six paleoearthquakes (AL6–AL1) from scarp‐derived colluvial wedges and crosscutting relations. A ground‐penetrating radar survey across the scarp resolved fault‐zone width, but not paleoearthquake stratigraphy. Bayesian (OxCal) modeling of 13 radiocarbon and 13 optically stimulated luminescence ages indicates that six earthquakes occurred &#x223C; 6.2 &#x2013; 0.4 &#x2009;&#x2009; ka "> ∼ 6.2 – 0.4 ka ∼6.2–0.4 ka . Interseismic recurrence ranges from 0.2 to 1.8 ky (mean 1.2 ky). We estimate 6.5 &#xB1; 0.7 &#x2009;&#x2009; m "> 6.5 ± 0.7 m 6.5±0.7 m of cumulative vertical tectonic displacement across the &#x2265; 14 &#x2010; m &#x2010; wide "> ≥ 14 ‐ m ‐ wide ≥14‐m‐wide fault zone used near‐field observations of scarp‐derived colluvial‐wedge thicknesses, antithetic faulting, and graben backtilting. This is similar to our independent estimate of 6.5 &#xB1; 0.5 &#x2009;&#x2009; m "> 6.5 ± 0.5 m 6.5±0.5 m using far‐field observations of the offset ground surface and correlation of alluvial‐fan stratigraphy across the WFZ. These results suggest that colluvial‐wedge thickness at the Alpine site approximates one‐half the original west‐facing fault scarp height. Per‐event vertical displacements range from 0.8 to 1.2 m (mean 1.1 m), which we use to estimate surface rupture lengths that may exceed 50 km from earthquakes as large as moment magnitude ( M w "> M w Mw ) &#x223C; 7.0 "> ∼ 7.0 ∼7.0 . The late Holocene average vertical slip rate is 0.9 &#x2009;&#x2009; mm / yr "> 0.9 mm / yr 0.9 mm/yr ( 0.7 &#x2013; 1.2 &#x2009;&#x2009; mm / yr "> 0.7 – 1.2 mm / yr 0.7–1.2 mm/yr range). Earthquake frequency has increased in the past &#x223C; 1 &#x2009;&#x2009; ky "> ∼ 1 ky ∼1 ky , whereas displacement per event has been similar for the past &#x223C; 6 &#x2009;&#x2009; ky "> ∼ 6 ky ∼6 ky , suggesting that strain accumulation is not the sole factor that controls the frequency and size of earthquakes at the SLCS–PS segment boundary. These findings can be used for a more nuanced characterization of earthquakes at the SLCS–PS boundary and improve earthquake hazard assessments along the Wasatch Front.

Utah

Combining conflicting Bayesian models to develop paleoseismic records—An example from the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah

Bayesian statistical analyses of paleoseismic data result in the probabilistic determination of earthquake times using geochronological data evaluated in the context of a stratigraphic model. However, a fundamental problem in paleoseismology is how to use the Bayesian approach to model sparse and/or conflicting geochronological datasets, such as those derived from sites exhibiting episodic sedimentary and pedogenic processes in moderate‐ to high‐energy environments (e.g., a normal‐faulted alluvial fan). Using paleoseismic data for the Corner Canyon site on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone (Utah), we develop an approach by which multiple Bayesian models are combined to generate an earthquake history at a site. This approach accommodates mutually exclusive interpretations of the geochronological data and thereby limits the influence of sparse data, stratigraphically inconsistent ages, or a single, subjective model interpretation. For the Corner Canyon site, we integrate four OxCal Bayesian models to generate a chronology of six events between &#x223C; 4.8 "> ∼ 4.8 and &#x223C; 0.5 &#x2009;&#x2009; ka "> ∼ 0.5 ka ⁠ . Late Holocene (post‐5 ka) mean recurrence and vertical slip‐rate estimates are &#x223C; 0.9 &#x2009;&#x2009; ky "> ∼ 0.9 ky (0.7–1.0 ky; 95% confidence) and 1.1 &#x2009;&#x2009; mm / yr "> 1.1 mm / yr ( ⁠ 0.8 &#x2013; 1.7 &#x2009;&#x2009; mm / yr "> 0.8 – 1.7 mm / yr range), respectively. Although our method increases the uncertainty in the timing of individual earthquakes, it more objectively accounts for potential geochronological errors and different interpretations of stratigraphic age control. By relaxing the need to select a single age model, our approach yields more accurate earthquake‐timing results that will better facilitate evaluations of along‐fault event correlation and earthquake rupture length.

Utah

Holocene earthquakes of magnitude 7 during westward escape of the Olympic Mountains, Washington

The Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault, previously mapped in Miocene bedrock as an oblique thrust on the north flank of the Olympic Mountains, poses a significant earthquake hazard. Mapping using 2015 light detection and ranging (lidar) confirms 2004 lidar mapping of postglacial ( &lt; 13 &#x2009;&#x2009; ka "> < 13 ka ) and Holocene fault scarps along the 22‐km‐long eastern section of the fault and documents Holocene scarps that extend &#x2265; 14 &#x2009;&#x2009; km "> ≥ 14 km along a splay fault, the Sadie Creek fault, west of Lake Crescent. Scarp morphology suggests repeated earthquake ruptures along the eastern section of the Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault and the Sadie Creek fault since &#x223C; 13 &#x2009;&#x2009; ka "> ∼ 13 ka . Right‐lateral ( &#x223C; 11 &#x2013; 28 &#x2009;&#x2009; m "> ∼ 11 – 28 m ) and vertical (1–2 m) cumulative fault offsets suggest slip rates of &#x223C; 1 &#x2013; 2 &#x2009;&#x2009; mm / yr "> ∼ 1 – 2 mm / yr Stratigraphic and age‐model data from five trenches perpendicular to scarps at four sites on the eastern section of the fault show evidence of 3–5 surface‐rupturing earthquakes. Near‐vertical fault dips and upward‐branching fault patterns in trenches, abrupt changes in the thickness of stratigraphic units across faults, and variations in vertical displacement of successive stratigraphic units along fault traces also suggest a large lateral component of slip. Age models suggest two earthquakes date from 1.3 &#xB1; 0.8 "> 1.3 ± 0.8 and 2.9 &#xB1; 0.6 &#x2009;&#x2009; ka "> 2.9 ± 0.6 ka ; evidence and ages for 2–3 earlier earthquakes are less certain. Assuming 3–5 postglacial earthquakes, lateral and vertical cumulative fault offsets yield average slip per earthquake of &#x223C; 4.6 &#x2009;&#x2009; m "> ∼ 4.6 m , a lateral‐to‐vertical slip ratio of &#x223C; 10 : 1 "> ∼ 10 : 1 , and a recurrence interval of 3.5 &#xB1; 1.0 &#x2009;&#x2009; ka "> 3.5 ± 1.0 ka . Empirical relations yield moment magnitude estimates of M 7.2–7.5 (slip per earthquake) and 7.1–7.3 (56 km maximum rupture length). An apparent left‐lateral Miocene to right‐lateral Holocene slip reversal on the faults is probably related to overprinting of east‐directed, accretion‐dominated deformation in the eastern core of the Olympic Mountains by north‐directed, margin‐parallel shortening and westward escape of the mountains.

Washington

Recurrent Holocene movement on the Susitna Glacier Thrust Fault: The structure that initiated the Mw 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake, central Alaska

We conducted a trench investigation and analyzed pre‐ and postearthquake topography to determine the timing and size of prehistoric surface ruptures on the Susitna Glacier fault (SGF), the thrust fault that initiated the 2002 M w 7.9 Denali fault earthquake sequence in central Alaska. In two of our three hand‐excavated trenches, we found clear evidence for a single pre‐2002 earthquake (penultimate earthquake [PE]) and determined an age of 2210±420 cal. B.P. (2 σ ) for this event. We used structure‐from‐motion software to create a pre‐2002‐earthquake digital surface model (DSM) from 1:62,800‐scale aerial photography taken in 1980 and compared this DSM with postearthquake 5‐m/pixel Interferometric Synthetic Aperature Radar topography taken in 2010. Topographic profiles measured from the pre‐earthquake DSM show features that we interpret as fault and fold scarps. These landforms were about the same size as those formed in 2002, so we infer that the PE was similar in size to the initial ( M w 7.2) subevent of the 2002 sequence. A recurrence interval of 2270 yrs and dip slip of ∼4.8 m yield a single‐interval slip rate of ∼1.8 mm/yr. The lack of evidence for pre‐PE deformation indicates probable episodic (clustering) behavior on the SGF that may be related to strain migration among other similarly oriented thrust faults that together accommodate shortening south of the Denali fault. We suspect that slip‐partitioned thrust‐triggered earthquakes may be a common occurrence on the Denali fault system, but documenting the frequency of such events will be very difficult, given the lack of long‐term paleoseismic records, the number of potential thrust‐earthquake sources, and the pervasive glacial erosion in the region.

Alaska

A paleoseismic transect across the northwestern Basin and Range Province, northwestern Nevada and northeastern California, USA

We use new and existing data to compile a record of ∼18 latest Quaternary large-magnitude surface-rupturing earthquakes on 7 fault zones in the northwestern Basin and Range Province of northwestern Nevada and northeastern California. The most recent earthquake on all faults postdates the ca. 18–15 ka last glacial highstand of pluvial Lake Lahontan and other pluvial lakes in the region. These lacustrine data provide a window in which we calculate latest Quaternary vertical slip rates and compare them with rates of modern deformation in a global positioning system (GPS) transect spanning the region. Average vertical slip rates on these fault zones range from 0.1 to 0.8 mm/yr and total ∼2 mm/yr across a 265-km-wide transect from near Paradise Valley, Nevada, to the Warner Mountains in California. We converted vertical slip rates to horizontal extension rates using fault dips of 30°–60°, and then compared the extension rates to GPS-derived rates of modern (last 7–9 yr) deformation. Our preferred fault dip values (45°–55°) yield estimated long-term extension rates (1.3–1.9 mm/yr) that underestimate our modern rate (2.4 mm/yr) by ∼21%–46%. The most likely sources of this underestimate are geologically unrecognizable deformation from moderate-sized earthquakes and unaccounted-for coseismic off-fault deformation from large surface-rupturing earthquakes. However, fault dip values of ≤40° yield long-term rates comparable to or greater than modern rates, so an alternative explanation is that fault dips are closer to 40° than our preferred values. We speculate that the large component of right-lateral shear apparent in the GPS signal is partitioned on faults with primary strike-slip displacement, such as the Long Valley fault zone, and as not easily detected oblique slip on favorably oriented normal faults in the region.

California, Nevada

Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes at the Spring Lake and North Creek Sites on the Wasatch Fault Zone: Evidence for complex rupture of the Nephi Segment

The Nephi segment of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) comprises two fault strands, the northern and southern strands, which have evidence of recurrent late Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes. We excavated paleoseismic trenches across these strands to refine and expand their Holocene earthquake chronologies; improve estimates of earthquake recurrence, displacement, and fault slip rate; and assess whether the strands rupture separately or synchronously in large earthquakes. Paleoseismic data from the Spring Lake site expand the Holocene record of earthquakes on the northern strand: at least five to seven earthquakes ruptured the Spring Lake site at 0.9 ± 0.2 ka (2σ), 2.9 ± 0.7 ka, 4.0 ± 0.5 ka, 4.8 ± 0.8 ka, 5.7 ± 0.8 ka, 6.6 ± 0.7 ka, and 13.1 ± 4.0 ka, yielding a Holocene mean recurrence of ~1.2–1.5 kyr and vertical slip rate of ~0.5–0.8 mm/yr. Paleoseismic data from the North Creek site help refine the Holocene earthquake chronology for the southern strand: at least five earthquakes ruptured the North Creek site at 0.2 ± 0.1 ka (2σ), 1.2 ± 0.1 ka, 2.6 ± 0.9 ka, 4.0 ± 0.1 ka, and 4.7 ± 0.7 ka, yielding a mean recurrence of 1.1–1.3 kyr and vertical slip rate of ~1.9–2.0 mm/yr. We compare these Spring Lake and North Creek data with previous paleoseismic data for the Nephi segment and report late Holocene mean recurrence intervals of ~1.0–1.2 kyr for the northern strand and ~1.1–1.3 kyr for the southern strand. The northern and southern strands have similar late Holocene earthquake histories, which allow for models of both independent and synchronous rupture. However, considering the earthquake timing probabilities and per-event vertical displacements, we have the greatest confidence in the simultaneous rupture of the strands, including rupture of one strand with spillover rupture to the other. Ultimately, our results improve the surface-faulting earthquake history of the Nephi segment and enhance our understanding of how structural barriers influence normal-fault rupture.

Utah

The history of late holocene surface-faulting earthquakes on the central segments of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah

The Wasatch fault (WFZ)—Utah’s longest and most active normal fault—forms a prominent eastern boundary to the Basin and Range Province in northern Utah. To provide paleoseismic data for a Wasatch Front regional earthquake forecast, we synthesized paleoseismic data to define the timing and displacements of late Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes on the central five segments of the WFZ. Our analysis yields revised histories of large (M ~7) surface-faulting earthquakes on the segments, as well as estimates of earthquake recurrence and vertical slip rate. We constrain the timing of four to six earthquakes on each of the central segments, which together yields a history of at least 24 surface-faulting earthquakes since ~6 ka. Using earthquake data for each segment, inter-event recurrence intervals range from about 0.6 to 2.5 kyr, and have a mean of 1.2 kyr. Mean recurrence, based on closed seismic intervals, is ~1.1–1.3 kyr per segment, and when combined with mean vertical displacements per segment of 1.7–2.6 m, yield mean vertical slip rates of 1.3–2.0 mm/yr per segment. These data refine the late Holocene behavior of the central WFZ; however, a significant source of uncertainty is whether structural complexities that define the segments of the WFZ act as hard barriers to ruptures propagating along the fault. Thus, we evaluate fault rupture models including both single-segment and multi-segment ruptures, and define 3–17-km-wide spatial uncertainties in the segment boundaries. These alternative rupture models and segment-boundary zones honor the WFZ paleoseismic data, take into account the spatial and temporal limitations of paleoseismic data, and allow for complex ruptures such as partial-segment and spillover ruptures. Our data and analyses improve our understanding of the complexities in normal-faulting earthquake behavior and provide geological inputs for regional earthquake-probability and seismic hazard assessments.

Book chapter

Latest Quaternary paleoseismology and evidence of distributed dextral shear along the Mohawk Valley fault zone, northern Walker Lane, California

The dextral-slip Mohawk Valley fault zone (MVFZ) strikes northwestward along the eastern margin of the Sierra Nevada in the northern Walker Lane. Geodetic block modeling indicates that the MVFZ may accommodate ~3 mm/yr of regional dextral strain, implying that it is the highest slip-rate strike-slip fault in the region; however, only limited geologic data are available to constrain the system’s slip rate and earthquake history. We mapped the MVFZ using airborne lidar data and field observations and identified a site near Sulphur Creek for paleoseismic investigation. At this site, oblique dextral-normal faulting on the steep valley margin has created a closed depression that floods annually during spring snowmelt to form an ephemeral pond. We excavated three fault-perpendicular trenches at the site and exposed pond sediment that interfingers with multiple colluvial packages eroded from the scarp that bounds the eastern side of the pond. We documented evidence for four surface-rupturing earthquakes on this strand of the MVFZ. OxCal modeling of radiocarbon and luminescence ages indicates that these earthquakes occurred at 14.0 ka, 12.8 ka, 5.7 ka, and 1.9 ka. The mean ~4 kyr recurrence interval is inconsistent with slip rates of ~3 mm/yr; these rates imply surface ruptures of more than 10 m per event, which is geologically implausible for the subdued geomorphic expression and 60 km length of the MVFZ. We propose that unidentified structures not yet incorporated into geodetic models may accommodate significant dextral shear across the northern Walker Lane, highlighting the role of distributed deformation in this region.

California

A paleoseismic study along the central Denali Fault, Chistochina Glacier area, south-central Alaska

In the Chistochina Glacier area of south-central Alaska, the active trace of the Denali fault is well defined by prominent tectonic geomorphology, including scarps, grabens, and mole tracks associated with the 2002 Mw=7.9 Denali fault earthquake. Interpretation of a trench excavated across the 2002 rupture trace places a constraint on the timing of the penultimate earthquake to after 550 to 660 yr before 2002, consis- tent with other paleoseismic studies along the central Denali fault. Field measurement of offset moraine deposits and use of existing geochronologic data is the basis to estimate a minimum latest Pleistocene slip rate of 8–14 mm/yr.

Alaska