Geology topics

Stephen M. Arthur

Publications and source records attributed to Stephen M. Arthur.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Spring phenology drives range shifts in a migratory Arctic ungulate with key implications for the future

Annual variation in phenology can have profound effects on the behavior of animals. As climate change advances spring phenology in ecosystems around the globe, it is becoming increasingly important to understand how animals respond to variation in the timing of seasonal events and how their responses may shift in the future. We investigated the influence of spring phenology on the behavior of migratory, barren-ground caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), a species that has evolved to cope with short Arctic summers. Specifically, we examined the effect of spring snow melt and vegetation growth on the current and potential future space-use patterns of the Porcupine Caribou Herd (PCH), which exhibits large, inter-annual shifts in their calving and post-calving distributions across the U.S.–Canadian border. We quantified PCH selection for snow melt and vegetation phenology using machine learning models, determined how selection resulted in annual shifts in space-use, and then projected future distributions based on climate-driven phenology models. Caribou exhibited strong, scale-dependent selection for both snow melt and vegetation growth. During the calving season, caribou selected areas at finer scales where the snow had melted and vegetation was greening, but within broader landscapes that were still brown or snow covered. During the post-calving season, they selected vegetation with intermediate biomass expected to have high forage quality. Annual variation in spring phenology predicted major shifts in PCH space-use. In years with early spring phenology, PCH predominately used habitat in Alaska, while in years with late phenology, they spent more time in Yukon. Future climate conditions were projected to advance spring phenology, shifting PCH calving and post-calving distributions further west into Alaska. Our results demonstrate that caribou selection for habitat in specific phenological stages drive dramatic shifts in annual space-use patterns, and will likely affect future distributions, underscoring the importance of maintaining sufficient suitable habitat to allow for behavioral plasticity.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS2021

Determinants of gray wolf (Canis lupus) sightings in Denali National Park

Wildlife viewing within protected areas is an increasingly popular recreational activity. Management agencies are often tasked with providing these opportunities, yet quantitative analyses of factors influencing wildlife sightings are lacking. We analyzed locations of GPS-collared wolves and wolf sightings from 2945 trips in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska, USA, to provide a mechanistic understanding of how viewing opportunities are influenced by attributes of wolves and physical, biological, and harvest characteristics. We found that the presence of masking vegetation, den site proximity to the road, pack size, and presence of a wolf harvest closure adjacent to the park affected wolf sightings, and the influence of den proximity on sightings depended on harvest management. Wolf sightings increased with den site proximity to the road in years with a harvest closure adjacent to the park but not in the absence of the closure. The effect of the harvest closure on sightings was similar in magnitude to an increase in pack size by two wolves or a more than a two-fold decrease in masking vegetation. These findings were consistent across a 10-fold change in spatial resolution. Quantitative analysis of the factors influencing wildlife sightings provides valuable insight for agencies tasked with managing viewing opportunities.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Summary of wildlife-related research on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, 2002–17

We summarize recent (2002–17) publicly available information from studies within the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as well as terrestrial and coastal ecosystems elsewhere on the Arctic Coastal Plain that are relevant to the 1002 Area. This report provides an update on earlier research summaries on caribou (Rangifer tarandus), forage quality and quantity, polar bears (Ursus maritimus), muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus), and snow geese (Chen caerulescens). We also provide information on new research related to climate, migratory birds, permafrost, coastal erosion, coastal lagoons, fish, water resources, and potential effects of industrial disturbance on wildlife. From this literature review, we noted evidence for change in the status of some wildlife and their habitats, and the lack of change for others. In the 1002 Area, muskox numbers have decreased and the Porcupine Caribou Herd has exhibited variation in use of the area during the calving season. Polar bears are now more common on shore in summer and fall because of declines in sea ice in the Beaufort Sea. In a study spanning 25 years, there were no significant changes in vegetation quality and quantity, soil conditions, or permafrost thaw in the coastal plain of the 1002 Area. Based on studies from the central Arctic Coastal Plain, there are persistent and emerging uncertainties about the long-term effects of energy development for caribou. In contrast, recent studies that examined direct and indirect effects of industrial activities and infrastructure on birds in the central Arctic Coastal Plain found little effect for the species and disturbances examined, except for the possibility of increased predator activity near human developments.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Characteristics of foraging sites and protein status in wintering muskoxen: insights from isotopes of nitrogen

Identifying links between nutritional condition of individuals and population trajectories greatly enhances our understanding of the ecology, conservation, and management of wildlife. For northern ungulates, the potential impacts of a changing climate to populations are predicted to be nutritionally mediated through an increase in the severity and variance in winter conditions. Foraging conditions and the availability of body protein as a store for reproduction in late winter may constrain productivity in northern ungulates, yet the link between characteristics of wintering habitats and protein status has not been established for a wild ungulate. We used a non‐invasive proxy of protein status derived from isotopes of N in excreta to evaluate the influence of winter habitats on the protein status of muskoxen in three populations in Alaska (2005–2008). Multiple regression and an information‐theoretic approach were used to compare models that evaluated the influence of population, year, and characteristics of foraging sites (components of diet and physiography) on protein status for groups of muskoxen. The observed variance in protein status among groups of muskoxen across populations and years was partially explained (45%) by local foraging conditions that affected forage availability. Protein status improved for groups of muskoxen as the amount of graminoids in the diet increased (−0.430 ± 0.31, β± 95% CI) and elevation of foraging sites decreased (0.824 ± 0.67). Resources available for reproduction in muskoxen are highly dependent upon demographic, environmental, and physiographic constraints that affect forage availability in winter. Due to their very sedentary nature in winter, muskoxen are highly susceptible to localized foraging conditions; therefore, the spatial variance in resource availability may exert a strong effect on productivity. Consequently, there is a clear need to account for climate–topography effects in winter at multiple scales when predicting the potential impacts of climatic shifts on population trajectories of muskoxen.

Oikos↗

USGS1998

Identifying and mitigating errors in satellite telemetry of polar bears

Satellite radiotelemetry is a useful method of tracking movements of animals that travel long distances or inhabit remote areas. However, the logistical constraints that encourage the use of satellite telemetry also inhibit efforts to assess accuracy of the resulting data. To investigate effectiveness of methods that might be used to improve the reliability of these data, we compared 3 sets of criteria designed to select the most plausible locations of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) that were tracked using satellite radiotelemetry in the Bering, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara seas during 1988-93. We also evaluated several indices of location accuracy. Our results suggested that, although indices could provide information useful in evaluating location accuracy, no index or set of criteria was sufficient to identify all the implausible locations. Thus, it was necessary to examine the data and make subjective decisions about which locations to accept or reject. However, by using a formal set of selection criteria, we simplified the task of evaluating locations and ensured that decisions were made consistently. This approach also enabled us to evaluate biases that may be introduced by the criteria used to identify location errors. For our study, the best set of selection criteria comprised: (1) rejecting locations for which the distance to the nearest other point from the same day was >50 km; (2) determining the highest accuracy code (NLOC) for a particular day and rejecting locations from that day with lesser values; and (3) from the remaining locations for each day, selecting the location closest to the location chosen for the previous transmission period. Although our selection criteria seemed unlikely to bias studies of habitat use or geographic distribution, basing selection decisions on distances between points might bias studies of movement rates or distances. It is unlikely that any set of criteria will be best for all situations; to make efficient use of data and minimize bias, these rules must be tailored to specific study objectives.

Ursus↗