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Stephen J. Char

Publications and source records attributed to Stephen J. Char.

8 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2015

Evaluation of mean-monthly streamflow-regression equations for Colorado, 2014

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, evaluated the predictive uncertainty of mean-monthly streamflow-regression equations representative of natural streamflow conditions in Colorado. This study evaluates the predictive uncertainty of mean-monthly streamflow-regression equations developed in a 2009 U.S. Geological Survey study using streamflow data collected over the entire period of record at each streamgage through calendar year 2013. The study area for this report is limited to the Mountain, Northwest, Rio Grande, and Southwest hydrologic regions of Colorado. Data collected from the beginning of the period of record through calendar year 2013 were used to evaluate the mean-monthly streamflow equations using the same basin characteristics as in the 2009 study. U.S. Geological Survey and Colorado Division of Water Resources streamgages with at least 10 years of streamflow record and identified as representative of natural streamflow conditions were selected for this study. During the streamgage selection process, a total of 432 streamgages, composed of 278 from the 2009 study and 154 new streamgages, were identified. The updated standard error of prediction and adjusted coefficient of determination values that correspond to the mean-monthly streamflow equations developed in the 2009 study are in close agreement with the results of this study. The old streamgages performed slightly better than the new streamgages, with approximately 88 and 85 percent of the data within the prediction intervals, respectively. This result was expected because the streamgages used to develop the regression equations should yield a better performance than the new streamgages. For all hydrologic regions, approximately 87 percent of the data are within the 95-percent prediction intervals. The explanation for why fewer than 95 percent of the data are within the prediction intervals is that the data do not conform perfectly to the regression assumptions required to accurately estimate performance metrics. The equations for the Rio Grande hydrologic region had the best fit with the parametric prediction-interval assumptions, with approximately 91.8 percent of the data within the prediction interval (average 12 months). The Mountain, Northwest, and Southwest hydrologic regions had 87.8, 84.9, and 83.5 percent of the data contained within the prediction interval, respectively. Monthly adjusted coefficient of determination values were computed and have the same general pattern for all four hydrologic regions. The largest values usually occur in March or April, and the lowest values usually occur in August or September. Only the Rio Grande hydrologic region deviates from this seasonal pattern, exhibiting a decrease in adjusted coefficient of determination values in August and September, with the lowest values occurring in the winter months (December, January, and February). Generally, the adjusted coefficient of determination values for this report are just slightly less (0.76 compared to 0.79) than the values computed in the 2009 study. The similarity of values, even when tested with data not used to originally develop the mean-monthly streamflow-regression equations, provides confidence that the predictive uncertainty of mean-monthly regression equations in the 2009 study are accurate. The fact that the results for the two datasets are very similar provides assurance that when these equations are applied to locations not used to develop the equations, the standard error of prediction and adjusted-coefficient of determination error metrics should be similar to those established in the 2009 study for locations with natural streamflow. The median absolute differences between the observed and computed mean-monthly streamflow for Mountain, Northwest, and Southwest hydrologic regions are fairly uniform throughout the year, with the exception of late summer and early fall (July, August, and September), when each hydrologic region exhibits a substantial increase in median absolute percent difference. The greatest difference occurs in the Northwest hydrologic region, and the smallest difference occurs in the Mountain hydrologic region. The Rio Grande hydrologic region shows seasonal variation in median absolute percent difference with March, April, August, and September having a median absolute difference near or below 40 percent, and the remaining months of the year having a median absolute difference near or above 50 percent. In the Mountain, Northwest, and Southwest hydrologic regions, the mean-monthly streamflow equations perform the best during spring (March, April, and May). However, in the Rio Grande hydrologic region, the mean-monthly streamflow equations perform the best during late summer and early fall (August and September).

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2011

Estimated probabilities and volumes of postwildfire debris flows, a prewildfire evaluation for the upper Blue River watershed, Summit County, Colorado

Debris flows resulting from rainfall on recently burned, rugged, forested areas create potential hazards to life, property, infrastructure, and water resources. The location, extent, and severity of wildfire and the subsequent rainfall intensity and duration cannot be known in advance. However, hypothetical scenarios based on empirical debris-flow models are useful planning tools for conceptualizing potential postwildfire effects. A prewildfire study to determine the potential for postwildfire debris flows in the upper Blue River watershed in Summit County, Colorado, was conducted in 2009 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Town of Breckenridge, to provide Breckenridge with a relative measure of which subwatersheds might constitute the most serious debris-flow hazards. Potential postwildfire debris-flow probabilities and volumes for nine primary watersheds tributary to the upper Blue River and 50 subwatersheds located within and adjacent to the primary watersheds were estimated by using empirical debris-flow models. An assumption in the debris-flow models was that a moderate to severe wildfire affected 100 percent of the forest and shrub stands within the area. Three postwildfire precipitation scenarios were used to represent a range of likely precipitation scenarios that could occur shortly after a wildfire: a 2-year recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall; a 10-year recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall; and a 25-year recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. All of these precipitation scenarios resulted in debris flows from the hypothetically burned watersheds. Subwatersheds with the lowest postwildfire debris-flow probabilities tended to have large areas of alpine and subalpine vegetation or sparse forest cover that would be minimally affected by wildfire. Subwatersheds with the highest probabilities tended to be steep, heavily forested, and relatively small in drainage area. Subwatersheds with the smallest estimated postwildfire debris-flow volumes tended to have small drainage areas, relatively little forest cover, less rugged topography, or were located in alpine and subalpine areas. Subwatersheds with the highest estimated debris-flow volumes were those with the largest drainage areas. The subwatersheds with the greatest potential postwildfire and postprecipitation hazards are those with both high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence and large estimated volumes of debris-flow material. The high probabilities of postwildfire debris flows, the associated large estimated debris-flow volumes, and the densely populated areas along the creeks and near the outlets of the primary watersheds indicate that Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Spruce Creeks are associated with a relatively high combined debris-flow hazard.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2008

Estimated Probability of Post-Wildfire Debris-Flow Occurrence and Estimated Volume of Debris Flows from a Pre-Fire Analysis in the Three Lakes Watershed, Grand County, Colorado

Debris flows pose substantial threats to life, property, infrastructure, and water resources. Post-wildfire debris flows may be of catastrophic proportions compared to debris flows occurring in unburned areas. During 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, initiated a pre-wildfire study to determine the potential for post-wildfire debris flows in the Three Lakes watershed, Grand County, Colorado. The objective was to estimate the probability of post-wildfire debris flows and to estimate the approximate volumes of debris flows from 109 subbasins in the Three Lakes watershed in order to provide the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District with a relative measure of which subbasins might constitute the most serious debris flow hazards. This report describes the results of the study and provides estimated probabilities of debris-flow occurrence and the estimated volumes of debris flow that could be produced in 109 subbasins of the watershed under an assumed moderate- to high-burn severity of all forested areas. The estimates are needed because the Three Lakes watershed includes communities and substantial water-resources and water-supply infrastructure that are important to residents both east and west of the Continental Divide. Using information provided in this report, land and water-supply managers can consider where to concentrate pre-wildfire planning, pre-wildfire preparedness, and pre-wildfire mitigation in advance of wildfires. Also, in the event of a large wildfire, this information will help managers identify the watersheds with the greatest post-wildfire debris-flow hazards.

Scientific Investigations Map↗
USGS2006

Sedimentation in Goose Pasture Tarn, 1965-2005, Breckenridge, Colorado

Goose Pasture Tarn, a 771-acre-foot reservoir in Summit County, Colorado, is the principal domestic water-storage facility for the Town of Breckenridge and collects runoff from approximately 42 square miles of the upper Blue River watershed. In the 40 years since the reservoir was constructed, deltaic deposits have accumulated at the mouths of two perennial streams that provide most of the inflow and sediment to the reservoir. The Blue River is a low-gradient braided channel and transports gravel- to silt-size sediment. Indiana Creek is a steep-gradient channel that transports boulder- to silt-size sediment. Both deltas are composed predominantly of gravel, sand, and silt, but silt has been deposited throughout the reservoir. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Town of Breckenridge, began a study to determine the volume of accumulated sediment in Goose Pasture Tarn, the long-term sedimentation rate for the reservoir, and the particle-size and chemical characteristics of the sediment. Exposed delta deposits occupied 0.91 acre and had an estimated volume of 0.6 acre-foot in 2005. Aerial photographic analysis indicated both the Blue River and Indiana Creek deltas grew rapidly during time intervals that included larger-than-average annual flood peaks on the Blue River. Sediment-transport relations could not be developed for the Blue River or Indiana Creek because of minimal streamflow and infrequently observed sediment transport during the study; however, suspended-sediment loads ranged from 0.02 to 1.60 tons per day in the Blue River and from 0.06 to 1.55 tons per day in Indiana Creek. Bedload as a percentage of total load ranged from 9 to 27 percent. New reservoir stage-area and stage-capacity relations were developed from bathymetric and topographic surveys of the reservoir bed. The original 1965 reservoir bed topography and the accumulated sediment thickness were estimated from a seismic survey and manual probing. The surface area of Goose Pasture Tarn in 2005 was 66.4 acres, and the reservoir capacity was 771.1 acre-feet at a full-pool elevation of 9,886.4 feet. The 1965 surface area was 67.1 acres, and the reservoir capacity was 818.0 acre-feet, indicating that the reservoir surface area has decreased by 0.7 acre, or about 1.1 percent, and the reservoir capacity has decreased by 46.9 acre-feet, or about 5.7 percent over a 40-year period. Sediment thickness determined with seismic profiling ranged from 0 to 4.0 feet and averaged 0.7 foot, with lesser thicknesses in the deeper parts of the reservoir and greater thicknesses near the deltas. Probe-determined sediment thickness ranged from 1.0 to 4.4 feet and averaged 2.8 feet near the Blue River delta and ranged from 0.3 to 6.0 feet and averaged 3.6 feet near the Indiana Creek delta. Approximately 47.5 acre-feet of sediment has accumulated in Goose Pasture Tarn and in the Blue River and Indiana Creek deltas, or an average of 1.19 acre-feet per year. Sediment cores from several locations in the reservoir showed stratification, which is indicative of different depositional dates or mechanisms. Metal and trace-constituent levels from the cores were compared with three standards. Silver, cadmium, europium, lead, and zinc were present in greater concentrations than Southern Rocky Mountain background levels in four sediment cores, and cadmium, lead, and zinc levels also were equal to or exceeded the Threshold Effect Concentration standards. Lead exceeded the Probable Effect Concentration standard in silt from the Blue River delta and deep water near the north shore. Tin was present in greater concentrations than Southern Rocky Mountain background levels in deep water near the east shore, and chromium and copper levels were equal to or exceeded the Threshold Effect Concentration standards in these cores.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2005

Proceedings of the U.S. Geological Survey Fourth Biennial Geographic Information Science Workshop: Denver, Colorado, April 23-27, 2001

Introduction: The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fourth Biennial Geographic Information Science (GIS) Workshop (USGS-GIS 2001) was held April 23-27, 2001, at the Denver Federal Center in Denver, Colorado. The workshop provided an environment for participants to improve their knowledge about GIS and GIS-related applications that are used within the USGS. Two major topics of USGS-GIS 2001 were the application of GIS technology to interdisciplinary science and the distribution and sharing of USGS GIS products. Additionally, several presentations included GIS technology and tools, project applications of GIS, and GIS data management. USGS-GIS 2001 included user and vendor presentations, demonstrations, and hands-on technical workshops. Presentation abstracts that were submitted for publication are included in these proceedings. The keynote speaker was Karen Siderelis, the USGS Associate Director for Information (Geographic Information Officer). In addition to the USGS, other Federal agencies, GIS-related companies, and university researchers presented lectures or demonstrations or conducted hands-on sessions. USGS employees and contractors from every discipline and region attended the workshop. To facilitate the interaction between the Federal agencies, each of the presenting Federal agencies was invited to send a representative to the workshop. One of the most beneficial activities of USGS-GIS 2001, as identified by an informal poll of attendees, was the Monday evening poster session in which more than 75 poster presentations gave attendees a chance to learn of work being performed throughout the USGS. A feature new to USGS-GIS 2001 was internet participation of USGS personnel through cyber seminars of the morning plenary sessions.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2002

Digital Geospatial Datasets in Support of Hydrologic Investigations of the Colorado Front Range Infrastructure Resources Project

The U.S. Geological Survey developed this dataset as part of the Colorado Front Range Infrastructure Resources Project (FRIRP). One goal of the FRIRP was to provide information on the availability of those hydrogeologic resources that are either critical to maintaining infrastructure along the northern Front Range or that may become less available because of urban expansion in the northern Front Range. This dataset extends from the Boulder-Jefferson County line on the south, to the middle of Larimer and Weld Counties on the North. On the west, this dataset is bounded by the approximate mountain front of the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains; on the east, by an arbitrary north-south line extending through a point about 6.5 kilometers east of Greeley. This digital geospatial dataset consists of digitized contours of unconsolidated-sediment thickness (depth to bedrock).

Open-File Report↗
USGS2000

Bedrock Geology of the Turkey Creek Drainage Basin, Jefferson County, Colorado

This geospatial data set describes bedrock geology of the Turkey Creek drainage basin in Jefferson County, Colorado. It was digitized from maps of fault locations and geologic map units based on age and lithology. Created for use in the Jefferson County Mountain Ground-Water Resources Study, it is to be used at a scale no more detailed than 1:50,000.

Open-File Report↗