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Stephen H. Hickman

Publications and source records attributed to Stephen H. Hickman.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Potential for continental scientific drilling to inform fault mechanics and earthquake science

Our understanding of fault mechanics and earthquake processes remains limited, largely due to minimal direct observations near active faults at seismogenic depths. This lack of data restricts our ability to accurately assess and mitigate both natural and human-induced seismic hazards. However, recent advancements in drilling capabilities and downhole sensing technologies offer an opportunity: the ability to observe the physical conditions within a volume near active fault zones. In this contribution, we highlight how scientific drilling can provide access to the near-fault environment, enabling measurements of the stress, temperature, fluid pressure, and rock properties at depths where ruptures initiate, propagate, and arrest. These observations are essential to refine models of earthquake nucleation and dynamic rupture, bridging gaps between laboratory experiments, numerical simulations, and surface observations. These insights can advance fundamental understanding in earthquake science but also support the development of more effective seismic hazard assessments and risk mitigation strategies.

Seismica↗

Strength recovery in quartzite is controlled by changes in friction in experiments at hydrothermal conditions up to 200°C

The rate of fault zone restrengthening between earthquakes can be influenced by both frictional and cohesive healing processes. Friction is dependent on effective normal stress while cohesion is independent of normal stress, potentially explaining—in part—the lack of depth dependence of earthquake stress drops. Although amenable to laboratory testing, few studies have systematically addressed the normal stress dependence of restrengthening rate. This is partially due to difficulty in separating relative contributions of friction and cohesion in recovery of fault strength. We present results from a series of slide-hold-slide tests on thin layers (≤10 𝜇m) of ultrafine quartz gouge that develop during shearing of initially bare-surface quartzite. Tests were conducted at 10 MPa constant pore pressure, 20–200 MPa constant effective normal stress, and temperatures of 22°–200°C. Restrengthening, defined as the difference between peak shear stress measured after resumption of sliding and steady-state sliding shear stress, increases with the log of hold duration. The 200°C healing rate, 0.014 per e-fold increase in time, is comparable to that determined from seismological observations along the Calaveras Fault, California. Construction of Mohr-Coulomb failure envelopes shows that changes in cohesion are small (<1 MPa) and independent of hold durations to 10 5 s, indicating that the increased strength is due to changes in the friction coefficient. These experimental results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that cohesive healing explains the depth independence of earthquake stress drop, but higher temperatures, longer time-scales, and more complex mineralogy could facilitate cohesive healing in natural fault systems.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth↗

Effect of thermal and mechanical processes on hydraulic transmissivity evolution

Fracture healing is a critical component of enhanced geothermal systems, the earthquake cycle, and induced seismicity. Accordingly, there is significant interest in understanding the process of healing and its effects on fluid transport. The creation, reactivation, and sustainability of fracture networks depend on complex coupling among thermal, hydraulic, mechanical, and chemical processes. We use laboratory slide-hold-slide experiments, at temperatures from 22 to 200 ˚C, to examine effects of fracture reactivation and quasi-static loading on the evolution of fluid transport properties of simulated fractures in Westerly granite. At all temperatures, the in-plane hydraulic transmissivity consistently decays during hold periods resulting in an overall reduction in transmissivity. During the first three to fifteen hours of an experiment, transmissivity decreases rapidly due to the generation of wear products, development of a sliding surface, and compaction of the resulting gouge. Once the sliding surface has developed, the long-term transmissivity decay rate at 22 and 100 ˚C is significantly lower than the transmissivity decay rate during the initial 3 to 15 hours of the experiment. However, at 200 °C, the decay of hydraulic transmissivity remains high throughout the experiment. The long-term decay of hydraulic transmissivity can be fitted with a power law model with more rapid reduction of hydraulic transmissivity at higher temperature. Periods of sliding on the fracture surface result in transient increases in the transmissivity, due to shear dilation, as is expected for Coulomb materials. These transients are superimposed on the long-term decay. When sliding ceases and a new hold period commences, there is a rapid reduction in transmissivity and return to the long-term rate of transmissivity decay. The rate of decay of the transmissivity transients is inversely proportional to temperature, in contrast to the long-term decay and the expected behavior for processes like subcritical crack growth and indentation creep. The higher decay rates that are observed during the initial 3-15 hours of the tests and following sliding, are associated with times that the porosity of the gouge is expected to be high. The difference in decay rates suggests that when the gouge is driven far from equilibrium by active shearing, densification may be dominated by a different mechanism from long-term compaction.

Conference Paper↗

U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Science Center is to collect a wide range of data on earthquakes, faults, and crustal deformation; conduct research to increase our understanding of earthquake source processes, occurrence, and effects; and synthesize this knowledge into probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, aftershock forecasts, and ground-shaking scenarios for anticipated major earthquakes. We disseminate these data products, hazard assessments, and research discoveries to scientists, engineers, emergency managers, and the public. With university and State partners, we operate the California Integrated Seismic Network and the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, as well as geodetic networks throughout the western United States. We also lead the National Strong Motion Project and the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system; house renowned rock mechanics laboratories and deep borehole geophysics facilities; and conduct extensive geophysical, geologic, and paleoseismic investigations along active faults. We are funded primarily by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with additional support from the USGS Volcano Hazards and Energy Resources Programs, other Federal and State agencies, private foundations, and public and private utilities and corporations.

California↗

Microseismic events associated with the Oroville Dam spillway

On 14 February 2017, two small (equivalent M D 0.8 and 1.0) seismic events occurred in proximity to the Oroville Dam in the Sierra Nevada foothills, California. To examine possible causal relationships between these events and reservoir operations, including the spillway failure starting prior to these events, we applied a new optimized template matching approach to seismic data between May 1993 - April 2018. We identified more than 19,000 smaller-magnitude events that were similar in character to the February 14 events. These events are located in proximity to the Oroville spillway and occurred in tight temporal clusters that strongly correlate with periods of spillway discharge. Seismic source inversion is inconclusive, but we suggest that these events might be induced by rapid changes in pore pressure along a fracture (or fractures) near the spillway. Cavitation cannot be ruled out, but it is unlikely to be the primary cause of the signals observed because these events are intermittent, impulsive and of short duration. The inferred repetitive opening and closing of the fracture(s) occurred long before any damage to the spillway and is thus probably not directly associated with spillway failure in February 2017. These events were not related to the 1975 M L 5.7 earthquake sequence that may have been induced by the filling of the Oroville reservoir.

California↗

Reducing risk where tectonic plates collide—U.S. Geological Survey subduction zone science plan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information and tools to build resilience in communities exposed to subduction zone earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Improving the application of USGS science to successfully reduce risk from these events relies on whole community efforts, with continuing partnerships among scientists and stakeholders, including researchers from universities, other government labs and private industry, land-use planners, engineers, policy-makers, emergency managers and responders, business owners, insurance providers, the media, and the general public. Motivated by recent technological advances and increased awareness of our growing vulnerability to subduction-zone hazards, the USGS is uniquely positioned to take a major step forward in the science it conducts and products it provides, building on its tradition of using long-term monitoring and research to develop effective products for hazard mitigation. This science plan provides a blueprint both for prioritizing USGS science activities and for delineating USGS interests and potential participation in subduction zone science supported by its partners. The activities in this plan address many USGS stakeholder needs: High-fidelity tools and user-tailored information that facilitate increasingly more targeted, neighborhood-scale decisions to mitigate risks more cost-effectively and ensure post-event operability. Such tools may include maps, tables, and simulated earthquake ground-motion records conveying shaking intensity and frequency. These facilitate the prioritization of retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure; Information to guide local land-use and response planning to minimize development in likely hazardous zones (for example, databases, maps, and scenario documents to guide evacuation route planning in communities near volcanoes, along coastlines vulnerable to tsunamis, and built on landslide-prone terrain); New tools to assess the potential for cascading hazards, such as landslides, tsunamis, coastal changes, and flooding caused by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions; Geospatial models of permanent, widespread land- and sea-level changes that may occur in the immediate aftermath of great ( M ≥8.0) subduction zone earthquakes; Strong partnerships between scientists and public safety providers for effective decision making during periods of elevated hazard and risk; Accurate forecasts of far-reaching hazards (for example, ash clouds, tsunamis) to avert catastrophes and unnecessary disruptions in air and sea transportation; Aftershock forecasts to guide decisions about when and where to re-enter, repair, or rebuild buildings and infrastructure, for all types of subduction zone earthquakes.

Circular↗

Micro-seismicity within the Coso Geothermal field, California, from 1996-2012

We extend our previous catalog of seismicity within the Coso Geothermal field by adding over two and a half years of additional data to prior results. In total, we locate over 16 years of seismicity spanning from April 1996 to May of 2012 using a refined velocity model, apply it to all events and utilize differential travel times in relocations to improve the accuracy of event locations. The improved locations elucidate major structural features within the reservoir that we interpret to be faults that contribute to heat and fluid flow within the reservoir. Much of the relocated seismicity remains diffuse between these major structural features, suggesting that a large volume of accessible and distributed fracture porosity is maintained within the geothermal reservoir through ongoing brittle failure. We further track changes in b value and seismic moment release within the reservoir as a whole through time. We find that b values decrease significantly during 2009 and 2010, coincident with the occurrence of a greater number of moderate magnitude earthquakes (3.0 ≤ ML < 4.5). Analysis of spatial variations in seismic moment release between years reveals that localized seismicity tends to spread from regions of high moment release into regions with previously low moment release, akin to aftershock sequences. These results indicate that the Coso reservoir is comprised of a network of fractures at a variety of spatial scales that evolves dynamically over time, with progressive changes in characteristics of microseismicity and inferred fractures and faults that are only evident from a long period of seismic monitoring analyzed using self-consistent methods.

California↗

Geologic setting of the proposed West Flank Forge Site, California: Suitability for EGS research and development

The proposed West Flank FORGE site is within the China Lake Naval Air Weapons Station (NAWS), China Lake, CA. The West Flank is west of the Coso geothermal field, an area of China Lake NAWS dominated by the Quaternary Coso volcanic field largely comprised of rhyolite domes and their volcaniclastic and epiclastic horizons. The largest dome flow complex, Sugarloaf Mountain, marks the northwestern margin of the geothermal field. The West Flank is situated due west of Sugarloaf. The geologic setting of the West Flank was determined from one deep well (83-11) drilled as a potential production hole in 2009. The bottom-hole temperature (BHT) of well 83-11 approaches 600 oF (315˚C), but flow tests demonstrate very low, non-commercial permeabilities. With the exception of the upper 600 feet of volcaniclastic alluvium, well 83-11 is completed in granitic basement. The West Flank possesses the primary attributes of a FORGE site: non-commercial permeability ( <10 -16 m 2 ), a 175˚ to 225˚C temperature range in crystalline rocks, and a location outside an existing geothermal field The Coso Mountains host the Coso volcanic field and are within a right-releasing stepover between the dextral Airport Lake (ALF) and Little Lake fault zones (LLFZ) and the Wild Horse Mesa and Owens Valley faults. Two distinct fault populations have been identified at Coso: WNW-trending and antithetical, NE-trending strike-slip faults and N- to NNE-trending normal faults. These faults are both high permeability drilling targets at depth within the main (productive) geothermal field and they locally segment the field into distinct hydrothermal regimes. The West Flank may be segmented from the rest of the field by one such northerly trending fault. The overall minimum principal stress orientation in the main geothermal field varies from 103˚ to 108˚; however, the minimum horizontal principal stress in 83-11 is rotated to 081˚.

California↗

Dynamics of permeability evolution in stimulated geothermal reservoirs

Spatially and temporally evolving permeability fields are fundamentally associated with the operation of enhanced geothermal systems. This chapter explores the resulting magnitude and patterns of permeability alteration as well as the coupled physical processes that control the evolution of permeability during shear stimulation and long-term evolution of a geothermal reservoir. It also explores mechanisms involved in the enhancement of fracture permeability, targeting injection pressures that encourage self-propping shear stimulation alongside elastic pressure and thermal dilatation of fracture sets. Simulation of a short-term, high-injection-rate enhanced geothermal system stimulation explored the importance of hydraulic versus thermal effects and the impact of a temperature differential between fluid in the fractures and the adjoining rock matrix. The effects of variations in fracture spacing on the evolution of permeability is at least as important as the magnitude of initial permeability, and quantifying the driving mechanisms is critical to understanding reservoir response.

Book chapter↗

Subsidence rates at the southern Salton Sea consistent with reservoir depletion

Space geodetic measurements from the Envisat satellite between 2003 and 2010 show that subsidence rates near the southeastern shoreline of the Salton Sea in Southern California are up to 52mmyr −1 greater than the far-field background rate. By comparing these measurements with model predictions, we find that this subsidence appears to be dominated by poroelastic contraction associated with ongoing geothermal fluid production, rather than the purely fault-related subsidence proposed previously. Using a simple point source model, we suggest that the source of this proposed volumetric strain is at depths between 1.0 km and 2.4 km (95% confidence interval), comparable to generalized boundaries of the Salton Sea geothermal reservoir. We find that fault slip on two previously imaged tectonic structures, which are part of a larger system of faults in the Brawley Seismic Zone, is not an adequate predictor of surface velocity fields because the magnitudes of the best fitting slip rates are often greater than the full plate boundary rate and at least 2 times greater than characteristic sedimentation rates in this region. Large-scale residual velocity anomalies indicate that spatial patterns predicted by fault slip are incompatible with the observations.

California↗

Hydrothermal frictional strengths of rock and mineral samples relevant to the creeping section of the San Andreas Fault

We compare frictional strengths in the temperature range 25–250 °C of fault gouge from SAFOD (CDZ and SDZ) with quartzofeldspathic wall rocks typical of the central creeping section of the San Andreas Fault (Great Valley sequence and Franciscan Complex). The Great Valley and Franciscan samples have coefficients of friction, μ > 0.35 at all experimental conditions. Strength is unchanged between 25° and 150 °C, but μ increases at higher temperatures, exceeding 0.50 at 250 °C. Both samples are velocity strengthening at room temperature but show velocity-weakening behavior beginning at 150 °C and stick-slip motion at 250 °C. These rocks, therefore, have the potential for unstable seismic slip at depth. The CDZ gouge, with a high saponite content, is weak (μ = 0.09–0.17) and velocity strengthening in all experiments, and μ decreases at temperatures above 150 °C. Behavior of the SDZ is intermediate between the CDZ and wall rocks: μ < 0.2 and does not vary with temperature. Although saponite is probably not stable at depths greater than ∼3 km, substitution of the frictionally similar minerals talc and Mg-rich chlorite for saponite at higher temperatures could potentially extend the range of low strength and stable slip down to the base of the seismogenic zone.

California↗

Sources of subsidence at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field

At the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) in Southern California, surface deformation associated with geologic processes including sediment compaction, tectonic strain, and fault slip may be augmented by energy production activities. Separating the relative contributions from natural and anthropogenic sources is especially important at the SSGF, which sits at the apex of a complex tectonic transition zone connecting the southern San Andreas Fault with the Imperial Fault; but this has been a challenging task so far. Here we analyze vertical surface velocities obtained from the persistent scatterer InSAR method and find that two of the largest subsidence anomalies can be represented by a set of volumetric strain nuclei at depths comparable to geothermal well completion zones. In contrast, the rates needed to achieve an adequate fit to the magnitudes of subsidence are almost an order of magnitude greater than rates reported for annual changes in aggregate net-production volume, suggesting that the physical mechanism responsible for subsidence at the SSGF is a complicated interplay between natural and anthropogenic sources.

California↗

Geologic setting of the West Flank, a FORGE site adjacent to the Coso geothermal field

The West Flank FORGE (Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy) site is located immediately west and outside of the Coso geothermal field, eastern California. Coso is a fluid-dominated, high temperature geothermal system that has been producing power continuously since 1987. The reservoir is composed of highly faulted, fractured and hydrothermally altered Cretaceous and Jurassic plutonic basement rocks. The heat source is a shallow, silicic magma chamber associated with overlying, Quaternary rhyolites and basalts of the Coso volcanic field. Over 30 years of development drilling and associated investigations demonstrates that several well-defined boundaries exist at Coso beyond which there is no commercial, hydrothermal geothermal potential. The West Flank is just west of one of these boundaries and it meets all required FORGE temperature (175-225˚C), host rock (crystalline rock), and depth (1.5-4.0 km) criteria. It has been hypothesized that the Coso volcanic field exists within a right-releasing step-over between two NW-striking, dextral fault systems. Two distinct fault populations yield high permeability drilling targets in the geothermal field. The first population contains WNW-trending with antithetical, NE-trending strike-slip faults and the second includes N- to NNE-trending normal faults. The West Flank appears to be separated from the geothermal field by one such northerly trending fault bounded by a felsic dike swarm. The West Flank’s 83-11 well suggests that the West Flank is comprised of weakly altered, leucogranite and diorites typical of the Jurassic to Cretaceous basement. The stress field in the West Flank has been rotated to 81˚ in contrast to the minimum principal stress orientations within the geothermal field which range from 103˚ to 108˚. Limited drilling, geophysics and other data sets are being assessed and synthesized to develop a working, 3d conceptual geologic model of the West Flank for FORGE.

California↗

Low resistivity and permeability in actively deforming shear zones on the San Andreas Fault at SAFOD

The San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) scientific drillhole near Parkfield, California crosses the San Andreas Fault at a depth of 2.7 km. Downhole measurements and analysis of core retrieved from Phase 3 drilling reveal two narrow, actively deforming zones of smectite-clay gouge within a roughly 200 m-wide fault damage zone of sandstones, siltstones and mudstones. Here we report electrical resistivity and permeability measurements on core samples from all of these structural units at effective confining pressures up to 120 MPa. Electrical resistivity (~10 ohm-m) and permeability (10-21 to 10-22 m2) in the actively deforming zones were one to two orders of magnitude lower than the surrounding damage zone material, consistent with broader-scale observations from the downhole resistivity and seismic velocity logs. The higher porosity of the clay gouge, 2 to 8 times greater than that in the damage zone rocks, along with surface conduction were the principal factors contributing to the observed low resistivities. The high percentage of fine-grained clay in the deforming zones also greatly reduced permeability to values low enough to create a barrier to fluid flow across the fault. Together, resistivity and permeability data can be used to assess the hydrogeologic characteristics of the fault, key to understanding fault structure and strength. The low resistivities and strength measurements of the SAFOD core are consistent with observations of low resistivity clays that are often found in the principal slip zones of other active faults making resistivity logs a valuable tool for identifying these zones.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

Surface monitoring of microseismicity at the Decatur, Illinois, CO2 sequestration demonstration site

Sequestration of CO2 into subsurface reservoirs can play an important role in limiting future emission of CO2 into the atmosphere (e.g., Benson and Cole, 2008). For geologic sequestration to become a viable option to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, large-volume injection of supercritical CO2 into deep sedimentary formations is required. These formations offer large pore volumes and good pore connectivity and are abundant (Bachu, 2003; U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Carbon Dioxide Storage Resources Assessment Team, 2013). However, hazards associated with injection of CO2 into deep formations require evaluation before widespread sequestration can be adopted safely (Zoback and Gorelick, 2012). One of these hazards is the potential to induce seismicity on pre-existing faults or fractures. If these faults or fractures are large and critically stressed, seismic events can occur with magnitudes large enough to pose a hazard to surface installations and, possibly more critical, the seal integrity of the cap rock. The Decatur, Illinois, carbon capture and storage (CCS) demonstration site is the first, and to date, only CCS project in the United States that injects a large volume of supercritical CO2 into a regionally extensive, undisturbed saline formation. The first phase of the Decatur CCS project was completed in November 2014 after injecting a million metric tons of supercritical CO2 over three years. This phase was led by the Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) and included seismic monitoring using deep borehole sensors, with a few sensors installed within the injection horizon. Although the deep borehole network provides a more comprehensive seismic catalog than is presented in this paper, these deep data are not publicly available. We contend that for monitoring induced microseismicity as a possible seismic hazard and to elucidate the general patterns of microseismicity, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) surface and shallow borehole network described below provides an adequate event detection threshold. The formation targeted for injection is the Mount Simon Sandstone, which is laterally extensive, has high porosity and permeability and has the potential to host future CCS projects due to its favorable hydrologic characteristics and proximity to industrial sources of CO2 (Birkholzer and Zhou, 2009). At Decatur, CO2, a byproduct of ethanol production at the Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) facility, is compressed to supercritical state and injected at 2.1 km depth into the 460 m thick Mount Simon Sandstone. This sandstone has varying properties, ranging from the lower, fine- to coarse-grained sandstone with high permeability and porosity, to the middle and upper Mount Simon, which consist of planar, cross-bedded layers of varied permeability and porosity (Leetaru and Freiburg, 2014). The changes in permeability and porosity within the Mount Simon Sandstone, due to depositional and diagenetic differences, create horizontal baffles, which inhibit vertical flow and restrict the injected CO2 to remain near the injection horizon (Bowen et al., 2011). The lowest portion of the Mount Simon Sandstone overlying the Precambrian rhyolite basement is the Pre-Mount Simon interval, generally < 15 m in thickness and composed of fine- to medium-grain size sandstone that is highly deformed (Leetaru and Freiburg, 2014). The basement rhyolite has a clayrich matrix and is fractured, with significant alterations within the fractures. The primary sealing cap rock is the Eau Claire Formation, a 100–150 m thick unit at a depth of roughly 1.69 km (Leetaru and Freiburg, 2014). The Maquoketa Shale Group and the New Albany Shale serve as secondary and tertiary seals at shallower depths of ∼820 and ∼650 m, respectively. The ISGS managed the Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP), a three-year project beginning in November 2011, during which carbon dioxide was injected at a rate of ∼1000 metric tons per day until November 2014 (Finley et al., 2011, 2013). ADM manages the Illinois Industrial CCS (ICCS) project, which will inject ∼3000 metric tons/day into a second injection well starting in the summer of 2015. The USGS began monitoring microseismicity with a 13- station seismic network at Decatur in July 2013 (Fig. 1). This network provides good detection capabilities and azimuthal (focal sphere) coverage for microseismicity with moment magnitudes (Mw) above about −0:5. Here, we report on 19 months of microseismicity monitoring at the Decatur CO2 sequestration site, which permits a detailed look at the evolution and character of injection-induced seismicity.

Illinois↗

Direct measurement of asperity contact growth in quartz at hydrothermal conditions

Earthquake recurrence requires interseismic fault restrengthening which results from solid state deformation in room-temperature friction and indentation experiments. In contrast exhumed fault zones show solution-transport processes such as pressure solution and contact overgrowths influence fault zone properties . In the absence of fluid flow, overgrowths are driven by gradients in surface curvature where material is dissolved, diffuses, and precipitates at the contact without convergence normal to the contact. To determine the rate of overgrowth for quartz, we conducted single contact experiments in an externally heated pressure vessel. Convergence was continuously monitored using reflected-light interferometry through a long-working-distance microscope. Contact normal force was constant with an initial effective normal stress of 1.7 MPa, temperature was between 350 and 530{degree sign}C, and water pressure was constant at 150 MPa. Two control experiments were conducted: one dry at 425{degree sign}C and one bi-material (sapphire) at 425{degree sign}C and 150 MPa water pressure. No contact growth or convergence was observed in the controls. For wet single-phase contacts, growth was initially rapid and then decreased with time. No convergence was observed. Fluid inclusions indicate that the contact is not uniformly wetted. The contact is bounded by small regions of high aperture, reflecting local free-face dissolution as the source for the overgrowth. The apparent activation energy is ~125 kJ/mol. Extrapolation predicts rates of contact area increase orders of magnitude faster than in dry, room-temperature and hydrothermal friction experiments, suggesting that natural strength recovery near the base of the seismogenic zone could be dominated by contact overgrowth.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Numerical modeling of injection, stress and permeability enhancement during shear stimulation at the Desert Peak Enhanced Geothermal System

Creation of an Enhanced Geothermal System relies on stimulation of fracture permeability through self-propping shear failure that creates a complex fracture network with high surface area for efficient heat transfer. In 2010, shear stimulation was carried out in well 27-15 at Desert Peak geothermal field, Nevada, by injecting cold water at pressure less than the minimum principal stress. An order-of-magnitude improvement in well injectivity was recorded. Here, we describe a numerical model that accounts for injection-induced stress changes and permeability enhancement during this stimulation. In a two-part study, we use the coupled thermo-hydrological-mechanical simulator FEHM to: (i) construct a wellbore model for non-steady bottom-hole temperature and pressure conditions during the injection, and (ii) apply these pressures and temperatures as a source term in a numerical model of the stimulation. In this model, a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion and empirical fracture permeability is developed to describe permeability evolution of the fractured rock. The numerical model is calibrated using laboratory measurements of material properties on representative core samples and wellhead records of injection pressure and mass flow during the shear stimulation. The model captures both the absence of stimulation at low wellhead pressure (WHP ≤1.7 and ≤2.4 MPa) as well as the timing and magnitude of injectivity rise at medium WHP (3.1 MPa). Results indicate that thermoelastic effects near the wellbore and the associated non-local stresses further from the well combine to propagate a failure front away from the injection well. Elevated WHP promotes failure, increases the injection rate, and cools the wellbore; however, as the overpressure drops off with distance, thermal and non-local stresses play an ongoing role in promoting shear failure at increasing distance from the well.

Nevada↗

Coping with earthquakes induced by fluid injection

Large areas of the United States long considered geologically stable with little or no detected seismicity have recently become seismically active. The increase in earthquake activity began in the mid-continent starting in 2001 ( 1 ) and has continued to rise. In 2014, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes with magnitudes ( M ) of 3 and greater in Oklahoma exceeded that in California (see the figure). This elevated activity includes larger earthquakes, several with M > 5, that have caused significant damage ( 2 , 3 ). To a large extent, the increasing rate of earthquakes in the mid-continent is due to fluid-injection activities used in modern energy production ( 1 , 4 , 5 ). We explore potential avenues for mitigating effects of induced seismicity. Although the United States is our focus here, Canada, China, the UK, and others confront similar problems associated with oil and gas production, whereas quakes induced by geothermal activities affect Switzerland, Germany, and others.

Science↗