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Scott Creely

Publications and source records attributed to Scott Creely.

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Managing more than the mean: Using quantile regression to identify factors related to large elk groups

Summary Animal group size distributions are often right-skewed, whereby most groups are small, but most individuals occur in larger groups that may also disproportionately affect ecology and policy. In this case, examining covariates associated with upper quantiles of the group size distribution could facilitate better understanding and management of large animal groups. We studied wintering elk groups in Wyoming, where group sizes span several orders of magnitude, and issues of disease, predation and property damage are affected by larger group sizes. We used quantile regression to evaluate relationships between the group size distribution and variables of land use, habitat, elk density and wolf abundance to identify conditions important to larger elk groups. We recorded 1263 groups ranging from 1 to 1952 elk and found that across all quantiles of group size, group sizes were larger in open habitat and on private land, but the largest effect occurred between irrigated and non-irrigated land [e.g. the 90th quantile group size increased by 135 elk (95% CI = 42, 227) on irrigation]. Only upper quantile group sizes were positively related to broad-scale measures of elk density and wolf abundance. For wolf abundance, this effect was greater on elk groups found in open habitats and private land than those in closed habitats or public land. If we had limited our analysis to mean or median group sizes, we would not have detected these effects. Synthesis and applications . Our analysis of elk group size distributions using quantile regression suggests that private land, irrigation, open habitat, elk density and wolf abundance can affect large elk group sizes. Thus, to manage larger groups by removal or dispersal of individuals, we recommend incentivizing hunting on private land (particularly if irrigated) during the regular and late hunting seasons, promoting tolerance of wolves on private land (if elk aggregate in these areas to avoid wolves) and creating more winter range and varied habitats. Relationships to the variables of interest also differed by quantile, highlighting the importance of using quantile regression to examine response variables more completely to uncover relationships important to conservation and management.

Wyoming

Influences of supplemental feeding on winter elk calf:cow ratios in the southern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Several elk herds in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem are fed during winter to alleviate interactions with livestock, reduce damage to stored crops, and to manage for high elk numbers. The effects of supplemental feeding on ungulate population dynamics has rarely been examined, despite the fact that supplemental feeding is partially justified as necessary for maintaining or enhancing population growth rates. We used linear regression to assess how the presence of feedgrounds, snowpack, summer rainfall, indices of grizzly bear density and wolves per elk, elk population trend counts, brucellosis seroprevalence, and survey date were correlated with midwinter calf:cow ratios, a metric correlated with population growth, from 1983–2010 from 12 ecologically similar elk herd units (7 fed and 5 unfed) in Wyoming, USA. Our statistical approach allowed for rigorous tests of the hypotheses that supplemental feeding had positive effects on calf:cow ratios and reduced sensitivity of calf:cow ratios to bottom-up limitation relative to top-down limitation from native predators. Calf:cow ratios generally declined across all herd units over the study period and varied widely among units with feedgrounds. We found no evidence that the presence of feedgrounds had positive effects on midwinter calf:cow ratios in Wyoming. Further, fed elk showed stronger correlations with environmental factors, whereas calf:cow ratios for unfed elk showed stronger correlations with predator indices. Although we found no consistent association between winter feeding and higher calf:cow ratios, we did not assess late winter mortality and differences in human offtake between fed and unfed regions, which remain a priority for future research.

Wyoming

Female elk contacts are neither frequency nor density dependent

Identifying drivers of contact rates among individuals is critical to understanding disease dynamics and implementing targeted control measures. We studied the interaction patterns of 149 female elk ( Cervus canadensis ) distributed across five different regions of western Wyoming over three years, defining a contact as an approach within one body length (∼2 m). Using hierarchical models that account for correlations within individuals, pairs, and groups, we found that pairwise contact rates within a group declined by a factor of three as group sizes increased 33-fold. Per capita contact rates, however, increased with group size according to a power function, such that female elk contact rates fell in between the predictions of density- or frequency-dependent disease models. We found similar patterns for the duration of contacts. Our results suggest that larger elk groups are likely to play a disproportionate role in the disease dynamics of directly transmitted infections in elk. Supplemental feeding of elk had a limited impact on pairwise interaction rates and durations, but per capita rates were more than two times higher on feeding grounds. Our statistical approach decomposes the variation in contact rate into individual, dyadic, and environmental effects, and provides insight into factors that may be targeted by disease control programs. In particular, female elk contact patterns were driven more by environmental factors such as group size than by either individual or dyad effects.

Wyoming

Type region of the Ione Formation (Eocene), central California: Stratigraphy, paleogeography, and relation to auriferous gravels

The middle Eocene Ione Formation extends over 200 miles (320 km) along the western edge of the Sierra Nevada. Our study was concentrated in the type region, 30 miles (48 km) along strike. There a bedrock ridge forms the seaward western side of the Ione depositional tract, defining a subbasin margin. The eastern limit of the type Ione is locally defined by high-angle faults. Ione sediments were spread over Upper Mesozoic metamorphic and plutonic bedrock, fed by gold-bearing streams dissecting the western slope of the ancestral Sierra Nevada. By middle Eocene time, a tropical or subtropical climate prevailed, leading to deep chemical weathering (including laterization) and a distinctively mature mineral assemblage was fed to and generated within Ione deposits. The Ione is noted for its abundant kaolinitic clay, some of it coarsely crystalline; the clay is present as both detrital grains and authigenic cement. Quartz is abundant, mostly as angular grains. Heavy mineral fractions are dominated by altered ilmenite and zircon. Distribution of feldspar is irregular, both stratigraphically and areally. Non-marine facies are most voluminous, and include conglomerates, especially at the base and along the eastern margins of the formation where they pass into Sierran auriferous gravels. Clays, grading into lignites, and gritty sands are also common facies. Both braided and meandering fluvial facies have been recognized. Shallow marine waters flooded the basin probably twice. Tongues of sediment exhibiting a variety of estuarine to marine indicators are underlain and overlain by fluvial deposits. Marine body fossils are found at only a few localities, but burrows identified as Ophiomorpha and cf. Thalassinoides are abundant in many places. Other clues to marginal marine deposition are the occurrence of glauconite in one bed, typical relations of lagoonal to beach (locally heavy-mineral-rich) lithofacies, closed-basin three-dimensional morphology of basinal facies, and high sulfur content of some marginal coals. The Ione has been said to be deltaic; however the two transgressional-regressional cycles we propose imply that only the regressional parts were deltaic. At other times, much of the type Ione would better be termed an intertidal estuary. Because the lower marine sequence was deposited against a paleobasin margin on the west, deltaic morphology was constrained, but apparently progradation was from north to south despite drainage into the basin from the east. Relations to the south are unclear due to the Stockton arch. The eastern margin of the type-Ione basin, and to some extent even its marine facies, are poorly constrained. A surface on Sierran bedrock to the east may have been stripped of some Ione basinal facies, leaving only coeval entrenched fluvial channel deposits.

California

Titanium mineral resources of the western U.S.: An update

Thirteen deposits or districts in the western U.S. have been examined in which titanium mineral resources have been reported or implied. These deposits are of the following general types (in probable order of importance): 1) Cretaceous shoreline placer deposits, 2) silica-sand deposits of California, 3) fluvial monazite placers of Idaho, 4) anorthosite related deposits, and 5) clay and bauxite deposits of the northwestern U.S. Relative to previous reports, this one shows some greater and some lesser resources (table 1). In any case, titanium-mineral resources of the western U.S. (west of 103° longitude) remain modest at world scale except as unconventional (especially perovskite) and by-product (especially porphyry) resources. Some deposits, however, have enhanced value to the titanium explorationist for the geologic relations they illustrate. Among the new conclusions are: a) Loci of Cretaceous shoreline placers form linear patterns, nested as a function of age, that can be traced for thousands of kilometers, permitting focused exploration in whole new mountain ranges. b) Medial hematite-ilmenite solid-solution, which is highly magnetic, is a major carrier of TiO 2 values in the Cretaceous deposits of Wyoming. This phase was previously thought to be relatively rare. c) Regressive shoreline placer deposits in indurated Cretaceous sequences expose intricate facies relations, such as the construction of shoreface sequences by long-shore drift over tidal-channel fill, without much loss of paleogeographic information. d) Due to deep weathering, virtually every Eocene sediment that accumulated in the Ione basin at the foot of the Sierra Nevada has economic value, permitting recovery of altered ilmenite and zircon along with silica, clay, coal, and gold. Ilmenite is most abundant in newly recognized shoreline sands. e) Upper Tertiary fluvial placers of Idaho formed in and filled fault-bounded basins and thus are far more voluminous than deposits in the modern valley system. Previously reported resources are thus far too low. f) Mafic igneous rocks of Proterozoic age near Bagdad, Arizona are of ophiolitic affinity, but contain nelsonitic ilmenite enrichments associated with anorthositic layers.

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