Geology topics

Sara J. Oyler-McCance

Publications and source records attributed to Sara J. Oyler-McCance.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Predicted genetic consequences of alternative population control strategies for North American plains bison in Yellowstone National Park

North American plains bison ( Bison bison bison ) in Yellowstone National Park are descendant from a population low of 23 indigenous individuals from the late 1800s, and 21 individuals introduced from outside herds in the early 1900s to strengthen the possibility of recovery. Within the park, the herd has rebounded and now averages around 5,000 animals. The herd is managed as a closed population within the park and adjacent areas in Montana, USA, which involves annual removals of animals to control numbers. We used genetic simulation to first isolate the effects of population size on retention of genetic diversity, and second to predict the genetic consequences of different population control strategies that vary in the number of bison removed annually, and their relatedness, while considering varying degrees of male dominance and environmental catastrophes. We found through simulation of a stable population that a herd size >2,500 had a high probability (>0.9) of retaining genetic diversity at levels compatible with long-term conservation (>90% of the initial genetic variation over 200 years), but a herd of 3,500 or more had a high likelihood (>0.9) of retaining levels of genetic variation (95%) suggested for maintaining evolutionary potential. When simulating the removals based on plausible management strategies available to the National Park Service, we found that maintaining a herd size of 3,500 or more, limiting removals to less than 40% of the population at a time, keeping a balanced sex ratio, and preferentially removing related individuals would likely retain more than 95% of existing genetic variation. With a herd size of 3,500 animals or more, population catastrophes and male dominance only influenced genetic retention in the most extreme cases, such as a catastrophic population decline of over 95%, a prolonged decline from 90% to 10% over 5 years, or extreme male dominance where 1% of males produced all offspring each year.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2026

Designing biosurveillance using target analysis for a cryptic invasive species, the brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis)

Biosurveillance is especially important for invasive species that are difficult to control or remove once established. Target analysis, or the strategic evaluation of factors that affect or improve detection of organisms, is one approach to improve biosurveillance over time. Due to their ecologically and economically devastating effects, brown treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis ), an invasive snake in the United States territory of Guam, have a dedicated biosecurity program to prevent their spread. Guam has been occupied by brown treesnakes since the 1940s, and they are distributed throughout the island. The neighboring Saipan Island, otherwise known as Saipan, participates in biosecurity programs designed to prevent their establishment. We evaluated biosurveillance protocols within rapid response and detection exercises for brown treesnakes. Our goal was to identify, account for, and reduce potential error when inferring absence from lack of detection using data collected in Guam and Saipan. We evaluated 1) whether brown treesnake detection probability was density dependent; 2) whether using terrestrial environmental DNA ( eDNA ) sampling detected snakes in occupied areas; 3) the likelihood brown treesnakes would have been detected in Saipan, given sampling effort during a biosurveillance exercise, and whether lizards could be used as a proxy on snake-free islands for estimating factors that affect detection; 4) the effect of transect design on pacing and subsequently pacing on lizard counts; and 5) the importance of observer training in surveying for cryptic reptiles and completing broad versus targeted bioinventories. We found that brown treesnake detection probability was density dependent when using visual surveys and declined with abundance in Guam, supporting that greater effort was required to have high confidence that lack of detection supported absence in areas with low snake densities. The terrestrial eDNA sampling protocol we developed was effective at detecting snakes in occupied locations in Guam and may be a complementary tool. However, further validation of eDNA protocols would still be required for early detection application. We also found that among trained observers, the ability to detect lizards was positively predictive of the number of snakes they detected at the standard snake densities in Guam. Thus, lizard detection appeared to be a reasonable proxy for evaluating visual search protocols for snakes on snake-free islands. Overall, creating easy pace-setting relationships between time and distance (i.e., 10 m per min), with flagging that clearly marked location on a transect, greatly reduced variability in search pace across survey nights. Observers that were continuously trained to maintain brown treesnake search profiles detected twice as many, on average, cryptic reptiles compared to individuals who had never received training, which was not true for the non-reptiles (birds and small mammals). Additionally, conducting broad bioinventories with many target species reduced detection of the target species, and this was increasingly true as years since the observer completed training for the target species increased. We thus found that designing biosurveillance exercises to evaluate search protocols can help improve or refine survey methods to reduce noise in the data, and accounting for that can improve the estimated confidence that failure to detect an invasive species infers absence.

NeoBiota↗

USGS2025

Riverscape genetics of nonnative Brook Trout to inform native cutthroat trout conservation

Objective Understanding how riverscape features influence gene flow is critical for managing population connectivity in freshwater species. We examined how landscape and stream characteristics shape the spatial genetic structure of nonnative Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis in a headwater stream network proposed for reintroduction of federally threatened Greenback Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus virginalis stomias . Brook Trout were studied to evaluate the suitability of this habitat for supporting a native trout metapopulation. Methods We genotyped 757 Brook Trout from 22 sites across a 60-km stream network using 12 microsatellite loci. Spatial genetic structure was assessed using clustering analysis (program STRUCTURE) and pairwise differentiation metrics ( F ST and Jost’s D ). A spatial network modeling approach was used to quantify the effects of riverscape features (e.g., stream gradient, stream order, waterfalls, and flow direction) on trout gene flow. Results Genetic clustering identified four distinct tributary groups, while estimates of pairwise genetic differentiation indicated some genetic connectivity across the network (mean F ST = 0.04; mean Jost’s D = 0.06). Trout gene flow was impeded by waterfalls, steep stream gradients, and increased hydrologic distance. Higher stream order and downstream flow direction were associated with stronger gene flow, and stream segments containing waterfalls and steeper gradients showed greater asymmetries between upstream and downstream gene flow. Conclusions Brook Trout populations in this stream network are spatially structured, but gene flow persists and is mediated by physical riverscape features and hydrologic distance. The observed patterns of genetic connectivity suggest that this habitat can support connectivity among populations of reintroduced Greenback Cutthroat Trout. In future native trout reintroduction efforts, prioritizing habitats with gradual stream gradients and fewer waterfalls would promote population connectivity.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2025

Bovine SNP array-based genetic assessment of American plains bison at American Prairie

American plains bison ( Bison bison bison , bison hereafter) experienced an extreme demographic bottleneck in the late 1800s. The species has since rebounded but is primarily managed as small and isolated herds due to habitat and sociopolitical limitations. Thus, reintroducing bison and allowing herds to achieve as much of their natural dynamics as possible is a major conservation goal. Concerns about genetic diversity loss in small, isolated herds and the persistence of cattle-origin variants from historical crossbreeding efforts have made genetic analysis an important part of bison conservation. The limitations of the current conservation genetic tools which are based on traditional markers such as microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA sequences, may be overcome with genome-wide genotyping panels commonly developed for agricultural species. Bison reintroduction in the grasslands at American Prairie began in 2005. Genetic analysis on these herds has yet to be conducted. We used the Illumina 777K Bovine genotyping panel to obtain data from 197 bison and 179 domestic cows to understand the current population genetic state of bison at American Prairie and gain insight on cattle ( Bos taurus ) introgression. Overall, bison at American Prairie currently have relatively high genetic diversity, low inbreeding, and no obvious signs of cattle introgression. A more comprehensive evaluation of introgression, likely including whole-genome sequence data, would clarify this finding. These results can serve as a baseline for future comparison as part of a genetic monitoring framework.

Journal of Heredity↗

USGS2025

Assessing shifting technology in genetic monitoring of the North American plains bison Federal conservation herds

Human expansion is a major driver of both declining wildlife abundance and the contraction of species’ distributions, increasing the risk of genetic erosion and the need for genetic monitoring. Rapidly advancing technology has expanded the types of genetic data that are available for wildlife conservation. However, inferences from different genetic markers could result in different management decisions and, thus, must be considered carefully. Rebounding from near extinction in the early 1900s, the majority of North American plains bison ( Bison bison bison ) are managed as small and isolated herds. Microsatellite-based analyses have been used to inform management of the US Federal bison conservation herds since the early 2000s. Transitioning from monitoring with tens of multiallelic loci (e.g., microsatellite loci) to thousands of biallelic loci (e.g., single nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]) could increase genotyping efficiency and improve the precision of population genetic inference but would require an understanding of the inferential differences between genetic marker types. We compared microsatellite-based measures of genetic diversity, differentiation, and population structure for 20 bison conservation herds (17 Federal, 1 Tribal, 2 Canadian) to inference from SNP-based analyses for the Tribal herd and 15 of the Federal herds. Data from both genetic marker types found that all herds have remarkably high genetic diversity given the severity of the bottleneck from which these populations recovered, and that population structure was consistent with founding histories. Importantly, SNPs had greater power to describe differences in genetic diversity and groups of related herds, but only if analyses are based on 250 or more loci. Overall, we found that microsatellite and SNP data can provide comparable conservation insight, but SNPs must be carefully selected to ensure continuity in genetic monitoring and to achieve the increased precision in genetic diversity and differentiation among herds that we observed in this study.

Conservation Genetics↗

USGS2025

Cgsim: An R package for simulation of population genetics for conservation and management applications

Wildlife conservation and management increasingly considers genetic information to plan, understand and evaluate implemented population interventions. These actions commonly include conservation translocation and population reductions through removals. Change in genetic variation in response to management actions can be unintuitive due to the influence of multiple interacting drivers (e.g. genetic drift, life history traits, environmental stochasticity). Simulation is an excellent tool to understand the predicted consequences of different proposed or implemented actions. However, the genetic simulators that are robust to a wide variety of life history traits also have a steep learning curve to appropriately parameterize common management actions. To fill this gap, we have developed cgsim, an R package for simulating the genetic consequences of common management interventions for populations of wildlife species. We developed a set of functions to specifically understand the effects of four main aspects of managing small, declining or isolated populations: loss of genetic diversity to drift, augmenting existing populations (e.g. translocation), population reduction through targeted removals and population catastrophes driven by stochastic extrinsic forces. Our single population simulation model is individual-based, and flexible to a range of life history traits. Here we validate cgsim through comparison of simulations to theoretical expectations of genetic diversity loss and illustrate its applied utility by focusing on a recently published empirical example for the Greater Sage-Grouse. Cgsim is available as an R package at: https://doi.org/10.5066/P1BXBEXJ .

Molecular Ecology Resources↗

USGS2025

Maintenance of genetic diversity despite population fluctuations in the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus)

Assessments of genetic diversity, structure, history, and effective population size ( N e ) are critical for the conservation of imperiled populations. The lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) has experienced declines due to habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation in addition to substantial population fluctuations with unknown effects on genetic diversity. Our objectives were to: (i) compare genetic diversity across three temporally discrete sampling periods (2002, 2007-2010, and 2013-2014) that are characterized by low or high population abundance; (ii) examine genetic diversity at lek and lek cluster spatial scales; (ii) identify potential bottlenecks and characterize genetic structure and relatedness; and (iii) estimate the regional N e . We analyzed 194 samples across the shinnery oak prairie region of eastern New Mexico and western Texas using 13 microsatellite loci. Mean heterozygosity, allelic richness, and inbreeding coefficient were not significantly different between discrete sampling periods, suggesting that this population has maintained its genetic diversity across the sampled population fluctuations. We did not detect genetic structure using multiple Bayesian clustering approaches. Furthermore, there was no support for recent genetic bottlenecks, and we estimated that the N e ranged from 229.5 ( p crit = 0.05, 95% CIs = 121.2-1023.1) to 349.1 ( p crit = 0.02, 95% CIs = 176.4-2895.2) during our final sampling period (2013-2014). Although we provide evidence for gene flow within this region, continued habitat loss and fragmentation that leads to population declines and isolation could increase the risk of genetic consequences. Continued monitoring of genetic diversity and increasing available habitat that supports robust populations of lesser prairie-chickens may improve the likelihood of the species' persistence.

New Mexico, Texas↗

USGS2024

A genetic assessment of natural barriers for isolating a habitat network proposed for Greenback Cutthroat Trout reintroduction

Objective: Native inland trout conservation efforts rely on physical barriers to exclude nonnative salmonids from target habitats. We used genetic techniques to evaluate a series of natural waterfalls for their potential to serve as barriers to prevent nonnative salmonids from entering a proposed reintroduction area for federally threatened Greenback Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus virginalis stomias . Methods: Genetic samples were collected from nonnative Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis at 11 sampling reaches above and below natural waterfalls (height: ~1–3 m under base flow conditions) along a 33-km segment of Colorado's upper Cache la Poudre River near the outflow of the proposed reintroduction area. To evaluate whether upstream movement of Brook Trout is restricted by any of these waterfalls, we characterized longitudinal trends in genetic diversity along the river corridor and examined patterns of genetic differentiation and population structure in relation to waterfall locations using a panel of microsatellites. Result: We found no evidence that the waterfalls served as complete movement barriers for nonnative Brook Trout based on genetic clustering analyses, estimates of population differentiation, and longitudinal genetic patterns. Our multilocus assessment did not identify alleles restricted to downstream reaches, and the river segment was genetically homogenized. Conclusion: Our evaluation suggests that the existing waterfalls do not fully prevent upstream movement by nonnative Brook Trout, and thus barrier modification would be needed to establish an isolated Greenback Cutthroat Trout population in the proposed wilderness area.

Colorado↗

USGS2024

Best practices for genetic and genomic data archiving

Genetic and genomic data are collected for a vast array of scientific and applied purposes. Despite mandates for public archiving, data are typically used only by the generating authors. The reuse of genetic and genomic datasets remains uncommon because it is difficult, if not impossible, due to non-standard archiving practices and lack of contextual metadata. But as the new field of macrogenetics is demonstrating, if genetic data and their metadata were more accessible and FAIR (findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable) compliant, they could be reused for many additional purposes. We discuss the main challenges with existing genetic and genomic data archives, and suggest best practices for archiving genetic and genomic data. Recognizing that this is a longstanding issue due to little formal data management training within the fields of ecology and evolution, we highlight steps that research institutions and publishers could take to improve data archiving.

Nature, Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2024

The potential influence of genome-wide adaptive divergence on conservation translocation outcome in an isolated greater sage-grouse population

Conservation translocations are an important conservation tool commonly employed to augment declining or reestablish extirpated populations. One goal of augmentation is to increase genetic diversity and reduce the risk of inbreeding depression (i.e., genetic rescue). However, introducing individuals from significantly diverged populations risks disrupting coadapted traits and reducing local fitness (i.e., outbreeding depression). Genetic data are increasingly more accessible for wildlife species and can provide unique insight regarding the presence and retention of introduced genetic variation from augmentation as an indicator of effectiveness and adaptive similarity as an indicator of source and recipient population suitability. We used 2 genetic data sets to evaluate augmentation of isolated populations of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in the northwestern region of the species range (Washington, USA) and to retrospectively evaluate adaptive divergence among source and recipient populations. We developed 2 statistical models for microsatellite data to evaluate augmentation outcomes. We used one model to predict genetic diversity after augmentation and compared these predictions with observations of genetic change. We used the second model to quantify the amount of observed reproduction attributed to transplants (proof of population integration). We also characterized genome-wide adaptive divergence among source and recipient populations. Observed genetic diversity ( H O = 0.65) was higher in the recipient population than predicted had no augmentation occurred ( H O = 0.58) but less than what was predicted by our model ( H O = 0.75). The amount of shared genetic variation between the 2 geographically isolated resident populations increased, which is evidence of periodic gene flow previously assumed to be rare. Among candidate adaptive genes associated with elevated fixation index ( F ST ) (143 genes) or local environmental variables (97 and 157 genes for each genotype–environment association method, respectively), we found clusters of genes with related functions that may influence the ability of transplants to use local resources and navigate unfamiliar environments and their reproductive potential, all possible reasons for low genetic retention from augmentation.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2024

Comparing modern identification methods for wild bees: Metabarcoding and image-based morphological taxonomic assignment

With the decline of bee populations worldwide, studies determining current wild bee distributions and diversity are increasingly important. Wild bee identification is often completed by experienced taxonomists or by genetic analysis. The current study was designed to compare two methods of identification including: (1) morphological identification by experienced taxonomists using images of field-collected wild bees and (2) genetic analysis of composite bee legs (multiple taxa) using metabarcoding. Bees were collected from conservation grasslands in eastern Iowa in summer 2019 and identified to the lowest taxonomic unit using both methods. Sanger sequencing of individual wild bee legs was used as a positive control for metabarcoding. Morphological identification of bees using images resulted in 36 unique taxa among 22 genera, and >80% of Bombus specimens were identified to species. Metabarcoding was limited to genus-level assignments among 18 genera but resolved some morphologically similar genera. Metabarcoding did not consistently detect all genera in the composite samples, including kleptoparasitic bees. Sanger sequencing showed similar presence or absence detection results as metabarcoding but provided species-level identifications for cryptic species (i.e., Lasioglossum ). Genus-specific detections were more frequent with morphological identification than metabarcoding, but certain genera such as Ceratina and Halictus were identified equally well with metabarcoding and morphology. Genera with proportionately less tissue in a composite sample were less likely to be detected using metabarcoding. Image-based methods were limited by image quality and visible morphological features, while genetic methods were limited by databases, primers, and amplification at target loci. This study shows how an image-based identification method compares with genetic techniques, and how in combination, the methods provide valuable genus- and species-level information for wild bees while preserving tissue for other analyses. These methods could be improved and transferred to a field setting to advance our understanding of wild bee distributions and to expedite conservation research.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2024

Genetic Connectivity in the Arizona toad (Anaxyrus microscaphus): implications for conservation of a stream dwelling amphibian in the arid Southwestern U.S.

The Arizona Toad ( Anaxyrus microscaphus ) is restricted to riverine corridors and adjacent uplands in the arid southwestern United States. As with numerous amphibians worldwide, populations are declining and face various known or suspected threats, from disease to habitat modification resulting from climate change. The Arizona Toad has been petitioned to be listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and was considered “warranted but precluded” citing the need for additional information – particularly regarding natural history (e.g., connectivity and dispersal ability). The objectives of this study were to characterize population structure and genetic diversity across the species’ range. We used reduced-representation genomic sequencing to genotype 3,601 single nucleotide polymorphisms in 99 Arizona Toads from ten drainages across its range. Multiple analytical methods revealed two distinct genetic groups bisected by the Colorado River; one in the northwestern portion of the range in southwestern Utah and eastern Nevada and the other in the southeastern portion of the range in central and eastern Arizona and New Mexico. We also found subtle substructure within both groups, particularly in central Arizona where toads at lower elevations were less connected than those at higher elevations. The northern and southern parts of the Arizona Toad range are not well connected genetically and could be managed as separate units. Further, these data could be used to identify source populations for assisted migration or translocations to support small or potentially declining populations.

Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico↗

USGS2024

High genetic diversity, low population genetic structure, strong natal philopatry, and longevity revealed in the Black Swift (Cypseloides niger borealis)

Genetic diversity is a critical cornerstone of biodiversity and is a central goal in management and conservation biology. Such diversity has implications for survivability, adaptability, and resiliency of a species. This study aimed to determine levels of genetic diversity and population genetic structure in the Northern Black Swift ( Cypseloides niger borealis ). This species nests across western North America as far north as Canada and south into Mexico, migrating annually to wintering areas in western Brazil. Colonies occur in isolated areas where appropriate nesting habitat is available, and in many cases, colonies are widely separated from each other. Banding data revealed that adults of this long-lived species return to their same breeding colony annually for many years. Additionally, some females exhibit natal philopatry, returning to and successfully raising offspring at the colony where they were hatched. This allowed us to hypothesize that we might expect some amount of genetic structure in the samples we studied. The life history characteristics of this species suggest that breeding colonies might be more genetically differentiated than other migratory birds that tend to have limited population genetic structure across their ranges. We used newly developed species-specific microsatellite primers to examine levels of genetic diversity and connectivity among 6 Black Swift colonies in the western United States. Levels of genetic diversity were generally high (expected heterozygosity ranging from 0.67 to 0.75) and comparable across 3 breeding sites with sufficient sample sizes ( N > 5). Principal coordinates analysis and STRUCTURE analysis showed no real clustering of individuals in regard to colonies, suggesting one panmictic metapopulation rather than multiple populations that are genetically distinct as we had previously hypothesized based on banding data. This is the first study to elucidate the genetic structure among colonies of Black Swift.

Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico↗

USGS2024

A metapopulation strategy to support long term conservation of genetic diversity in Department of the Interior bison

Once numbering in the tens of millions, plains bison ( Bison bison bison ) were nearly driven to extinction with only a few hundred individuals remaining by the late 19th century. Plains bison have since recovered to approximately 20,000 animals managed in conservation herds throughout North America, yet substantial challenges to their recovery remain. The Department of the Interior (DOI) is working with diverse partners to steward approximately 11,000 bison in 18 conservation herds across 12 states. Most herds exist in areas without native predators, and removals are required to keep herd sizes at or below carrying capacity. The loss of genetic diversity within bison, and the fact that most DOI herds are relatively small and isolated from each other with no opportunity for natural gene flow, raises concerns about maintaining genetic diversity over the long term. Connecting populations through gene flow (i.e., creating a metapopulation) can minimize loss of genetic diversity, both within and across populations. Management of DOI bison conservation herds has historically varied across bureaus and conservation units. Adopting a national perspective on bison conservation was identified as a priority in the 2008 Department of the Interior Bison Conservation Initiative (BCI). The concept of metapopulation management as a potential tool to maximize the conservation of genetic diversity among DOI herds was first described in this 2008 Initiative and was specifically encouraged in the 2010 DOI Bison Conservation Genetics Workshop report (Dratch and Gogan 2010). In the 2020 BCI, the DOI re-affirmed its commitment to conserving bison as native, North American wildlife. This document establishes a framework for a nationally coordinated strategy for bison managed by the DOI to support the genetic conservation goals outlined in the 2020 BCI. This is a decisionmaking framework that guides managers through the process of determining when and how to consider translocations. Decisions and actions within the framework are informed by analysis and interpretation of data housed in an integrated, relational database that will be initially populated with the most current data and updated annually thereafter. It provides science-based guidance on how to conserve DOI bison genetic diversity through strategic translocations, while also considering cattle introgression and bison health. We illustrate how this Strategy can be used to guide the establishment of new conservation herds and discuss what it means to be a DOI partner. Finally, this is intended to be used as a living document that will evolve as needs and technologies change.

Science Report↗

USGS2023

Genetic mark–recapture analysis reveals large annual variation in pre-breeding sex ratio of greater sage-grouse

Sex ratio, and the extent to which it varies over time, is an important factor in the demography, management, and conservation of wildlife populations. Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus populations in western North America are monitored using counts of males at leks in spring. Population estimates derived from lek-count data typically assume a constant, female-biased sex ratio, yet few rigorous, empirically derived estimates of sex ratio are available to test that assumption. We estimated pre-breeding sex ratio of greater sage-grouse in a peripheral, geographically isolated population in northwestern Colorado during two consecutive winters using closed-population, robust-design, multi-state, genetic mark–recapture models in program MARK. Sex ratio varied markedly between years, with estimates of 3.29 (95% CI: 2.36–4.59) females per male in winter 2012–2013 and 1.54 (95% CI: 1.22–1.95) females per male in winter 2013–2014. Rather than assuming a constant sex ratio, biologists should consider the potential for large annual variation in sex ratio of greater sage-grouse populations when estimating population size or trend from male lek-count data.

Wildlife Biology↗

USGS2023

The ties that bind the sagebrush biome: Integrating genetic connectivity into range-wide conservation of greater sage-grouse

Conserving genetic connectivity is fundamental to species persistence, yet rarely is made actionable into spatial planning for imperilled species. Climate change and habitat degradation have added urgency to embrace connectivity into networks of protected areas. Our two-step process integrates a network model with a functional connectivity model, to identify population centres important to maintaining genetic connectivity then to delineate those pathways most likely to facilitate connectivity thereamong for the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a species of conservation concern ranging across eleven western US states and into two Canadian provinces. This replicable process yielded spatial action maps, able to be prioritized by importance to maintaining range-wide genetic connectivity. We used these maps to investigate the efficacy of 3.2 million ha designated as priority areas for conservation (PACs) to encompass functional connectivity. We discovered that PACs encompassed 41.1% of cumulative functional connectivity—twice the amount of connectivity as random—and disproportionately encompassed the highest-connectivity landscapes. Comparing spatial action maps to impedances to connectivity such as cultivation and woodland expansion allows both planning for future management and tracking outcomes from past efforts.

western United States↗

USGS2023

A genetic warning system for a hierarchically structured wildlife monitoring framework

Genetic variation is a well-known indicator of population fitness yet is not typically included in monitoring programs for sensitive species. Additionally, most programs monitor populations at one scale, which can lead to potential mismatches with ecological processes critical to species' conservation. Recently developed methods generating hierarchically nested population units (i.e., clusters of varying scales) for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) have identified population trend declines across spatiotemporal scales to help managers target areas for conservation. The same clusters used as a proxy for spatial scale can alert managers to local units (i.e., neighborhood-scale) with low genetic diversity, further facilitating identification of management targets. We developed a genetic warning system utilizing previously developed hierarchical population units to identify management-relevant areas with low genetic diversity within the greater sage-grouse range. Within this warning system we characterized conservation concern thresholds based on values of genetic diversity and developed a statistical model for microsatellite data to robustly estimate these values for hierarchically nested populations. We found that 41 of 224 neighborhood-scale clusters had low genetic diversity, 23 of which were coupled with documented local population trend decline. We also found evidence of cross-scale low genetic diversity in the small and isolated Washington population, unlikely to be reversed through typical local management actions alone. The combination of low genetic diversity and a declining population suggests relatively high conservation concern. Our findings could further facilitate conservation action prioritization in combination with population trend assessments and (or) local information, and act as a base-line of genetic diversity for future comparison. Importantly, the approach we used is broadly applicable across taxa.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2023

Simulation of genetic change under four removal strategies for a wild horse population

Small and/or artificially reduced populations can suffer genetic erosion with long-term consequences to population fitness and persistence. However, managers must periodically remove free-roaming horses from the landscape to reduce the risk of habitat degradation. We developed an individual-based population simulation model to evaluate the expected change in genetic diversity after 100 years under each of four removal strategies for the wild horse population in the Pryor Mountain management area with removals occurring every 5 years, and assuming that no additional horses are introduced to the herd. We found that long generations and high survival rates of this wild horse population guard against rapid loss of genetic diversity for all scenarios in general. However, scenarios that included a removal strategy prioritizing individuals for removal based on relatedness initially increased mean genetic diversity that was subsequently maintained at a higher level than strategies that randomly selected individuals for removal.

Report↗