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Sally H. Potter

Publications and source records attributed to Sally H. Potter.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

The communication of volcano information in New Zealand - A narrative review

Communication of volcano information is critical for effective volcanic risk management. A variety of information is communicated to inform decisions and guide actions for planning, preparedness, and response. Such information needs to be reliable, and fit-for-purpose across different stages of volcanic activity (quiescence, unrest, short or long-term eruptive stages, and the post-eruptive stage). However, an understanding of communication across these different stages of volcanic activity remains limited. We undertook a narrative review of New Zealand literature to explore what information is communicated about volcanoes, across which stages of activity and by whom. Results highlight that NZ literature only documents certain aspects of volcano information and communication, specifically regarding certain locations, stages of volcanic activity (i.e. quiescence or unrest), or hazards. Literature gaps exist regarding volcano communication during unrest and post-eruptive stages, as well as how volcano information evolves between these phases, and how decision-makers use such information. Additional work would be useful to document existing examples of volcano information for different stages of activity. Further research could help in understanding the information needs of decision-makers during each of these stages to improve information and communication.

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics↗
USGS2024

Editorial: Enabling people-centered risk communication for geohazards

In the field of natural hazards, communicating science with the public and stakeholders (i.e., interested parties) involves entering the challenging and complex world of hazard and risk communication, the ultimate purpose of which is to reduce the impact of impending hazards on people and property at risk. Hazard and risk communication are adequate if they reach people with the information that they need, at the right time, and in a form that they can use. This task appears to be particularly difficult when decisions by the public and stakeholders have to be made in the presence of uncertainty about what could happen, as is often the case with geohazards. Moreover, decision-making is complex when there are time pressures, human and economic resources are limited, and multiple sources of information need to be considered. This poses several challenges for the development of two-way and people-centered risk communication for geohazards. The “Enabling People-Centered Risk Communication for Geohazards” Research Topic analyses these challenges and identifies innovative pathways to address them. More precisely, it draws together 13 state-of-the-art articles from around the world on improving communication practices, strategies, and understandings relating to a range of various geohazards and weather-related hazards.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2024

Long-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand

On 14 February 2016, a magnitude (M)5.7 earthquake struck in Christchurch New Zealand (Aotearoa in the Maori language). The shaking caused damage to historic facades, power outages, cliff collapses, rock falls, and liquefaction but no reported injuries or fatalities. This Valentine’s Day earthquake was an aftershock in the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES), which began on 4 September 2010 with the M7.1 Darfield Earthquake and included the destructive and fatal M6.2 Christchurch aftershock on 22 February 2011. This study, eight months after the Valentine’s Day earthquake and six years after the initiation of the CES, is the first to explore long-term aftershock forecast information and communication needs. The exploratory study also aimed to gather feedback on aftershock scenarios, an alternative form for communicating the forecast. The qualitative study involved workshops with emergency managers, public health officials, and members of the public in Christchurch. Key findings for long-term communication throughout an earthquake sequence include: 1. divergent earthquake experiences affect aftershock communication response and information needs; 2. understanding aftershock sequence behavior is foundational to sense-making when large aftershocks occur; 3. strategic earthquake sequence updates from the trusted science agency and local agencies could serve as important reminders for earthquake preparedness; 4. communication of aftershock forecast uncertainty could aid with both the credibility of the information and living with uncertainty, and 5. inclusion of impact information and preparedness advice into aftershock forecast scenarios could provide links to actionable information. The paper derives implications for research and practice of long-term communications during an aftershock sequence.

Christchurch↗
USGS2022

The effects of earthquake experience on intentions to respond to Earthquake Early Warnings

Warning systems are essential for providing people with information so they can take protective action in response to perils. Systems need to be human-centered, which requires an understanding of the context within which humans operate. Therefore, our research sought to understand the human context for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) in Aotearoa New Zealand, a location where no comprehensive EEW system existed in 2019 when we did this study. We undertook a survey of people's previous experiences of earthquakes, their perceptions of the usefulness of a hypothetical EEW system, and their intended responses to a potential warning (for example, Drop, Cover, Hold (DCH), staying still, performing safety actions). Results showed little difference in perceived usefulness of an EEW system between those with and without earthquake experience, except for a weak relationship between perceived usefulness and if a respondent's family or friends had previously experienced injury, damage or loss from an earthquake. Previous earthquake experience was, however, associated with various intended responses to a warning. The more direct, or personally relevant a person's experiences were, the more likely they were to intend to take a useful action on receipt of an EEW. Again, the type of experience which showed the largest difference was having had a family member or friend experience injury, damage or loss. Experience of participation in training, exercises or drills did not seem to prompt the correct intended actions for earthquake warnings; however, given the hypothetical nature of the study, it is possible people did not associate their participation in drills, for example, with a potential action that could be taken on receipt of an EEW. Our analysis of regional differences highlighted that intentions to mentally prepare on receipt of a warning were significantly higher for Canterbury region participants, most likely related to strong shaking and subsequent impacts experienced during the 2010–11 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence. Our research reinforces that previous experience can influence earthquake-related perceptions and behaviors, but in different ways depending on the context. Public communication and interventions for EEW could take into consideration different levels and types of experiences of the audience for greater success in response.

Frontiers in Communications↗
USGS2020

Earthquake early warning in Aotearoa New Zealand: A survey of public perspectives to guide warning system development

Earthquake early warning (EEW) can be used to detect earthquakes and provide advanced notification of strong shaking, allowing pre-emptive actions to be taken that not only benefit infrastructure but reduce injuries and fatalities. Currently Aotearoa New Zealand does not have a nationwide EEW system, so a survey of the public was undertaken to understand whether EEW was considered useful and acceptable by the public, as well as perceptions of how and when such warnings should be communicated, before making an investment in such technology. We surveyed the public’s perspectives ( N = 3084) on the usefulness of EEW, preferred system attributes, and what people anticipated doing on receipt of a warning. We found strong support for EEW, for the purposes of being able to undertake actions to protect oneself and others (e.g. family, friends, and pets), and to mentally prepare for shaking. In terms of system attributes, respondents expressed a desire for being warned at a threshold of shaking intensity MM5–6. They suggested a preference for receiving a warning via mobile phone, supported by other channels. In addition to being warned about impending shaking, respondents wanted to receive messages that alerted them to other attributes of the earthquake (including the possibility of additional hazards such as tsunami), and what actions to take. People’s anticipated actions on receipt of a warning varied depending on the time available from the warning to arrival of shaking. People were more likely to undertake quicker and easier actions for shorter timeframes of <10 s (e.g., stop, mentally prepare, take protective action), and more likely to move to a nearby safe area, help others, look for more information, or take safety actions as timeframes increased. Given the public endorsement for EEW, information from this survey can be used to guide future development in Aotearoa New Zealand and internationally with respect to system attributes, sources, channels and messages, in ways that promote effective action.

Humanities & Social Sciences Communications↗
USGS2020

Forecasting for a fractured land: A case study of the communication and use of aftershock forecasts from the Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand

Operational earthquake forecasts (OEFs) are represented as time‐dependent probabilities of future earthquake hazard and risk. These probabilities can be presented in a variety of formats, including tables, maps, and text‐based scenarios. In countries such as Aotearoa New Zealand, the U.S., and Japan, OEFs have been released by scientific organizations to agencies and the public, with the intent of providing information about future earthquake hazard and risk, so that people can use this information to inform their decisions and activities. Despite questions being raised about the utility of OEF for decision‐making, past earthquake events have shown that agencies and the public have indeed made use of such forecasts. Responses have included making decisions about safe access into buildings, cordoning, demolition safety, timing of infrastructure repair and rebuild, insurance, postearthquake building standards, postevent land‐use planning, and public communication about aftershocks. To add to this body of knowledge, we undertook a survey to investigate how agencies and GNS Science staff used OEFs that were communicated following the M w 7.8 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand. We found that agencies utilized OEFs in many of the ways listed previously, and we document individual employee’s actions taken in their home‐life context. Challenges remain, however, regarding the interpretation of probabilistic information and applying this to practical decision‐making. We suggest that science agencies cannot expect nontechnical users to understand and utilize forecasts without additional support. This might include developing a diversity of audience‐relevant OEF information for communication purposes, alongside advice on how such information could be utilized.

northern part of South Island↗
USGS2019

When the earth doesn’t stop shaking: How experiences over time influenced information needs, communication, and interpretation of aftershock information during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence, New Zealand

The Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) began with the Darfield earthquake on 4 September 2010. Continual large and small aftershocks since that time have meant communities have cycled through repeated periods of impact, response and recovery. Scientific communication about aftershocks during such a prolonged sequence has faced distinct challenges. We conducted research to better understand aftershock information needs for agencies and the public, and how people interpreted and responded to such information. We found that a wide range of information was needed from basic facts about aftershocks through to more technical information, and in different formats (e.g. maps, tables, graphs, text, analogies). Information needs also evolved throughout the sequence, and differed depending on people’s roles and experiences, and the phase of impact, response and recovery communities were in. Interpretation of aftershock information was influenced by a variety of factors including how understandable and relevant the information was, whether people had prior knowledge or experience of aftershocks, whether the information was personalised or contextualised, emotions and feelings, credibility and trust, and external influences. Given that such a diversity of evolving information is required, it is imperative that geoscientists strategize how to provide such information before a significant earthquake occurs.

Natural Hazards↗