Geology topics

Sabrina Servanty

Publications and source records attributed to Sabrina Servanty.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2019

Population dynamics of reintroduced Whooping Cranes

Because of the small size and restricted range of the Aransas-Wood Buffalo Population, reintroduction is a prominent element of the recovery effort to ensure persistence of Whooping Cranes ( Grus americana ). A fundamental objective of all Whooping Crane reintroduction efforts is the establishment of a self-sustaining population. Therefore, success of reintroduction efforts will ultimately be determined by demography: births and deaths of Whooping Cranes in the released population. We present a detailed review of the demographic modeling efforts for two reintroduced populations of Whooping Cranes: the Florida Nonmigratory Population and the Eastern Migratory Population. Both of these populations have struggled with poor demographic performance, and the Florida Nonmigratory Population is now nearly extirpated. The focus of our review is on the models used to represent Whooping Crane population dynamics and the major uncertainties that still exist about population dynamics in reintroduced Whooping Cranes. We also discuss the centrality of population models to the management of reintroduced Whooping Cranes, and the use of decision analysis to navigate multiple-objective decisions made under uncertainty. Development of demographic models, and articulation and testing of hypotheses about the causes of poor demographic performance in reintroduced populations, will continue to be research areas of importance in support of Whooping Crane reintroduction.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range: impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay

Changes in the abundance and distribution of wildlife populations are common consequences of historic and contemporary climate change. Some Arctic marine mammals, such as the polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ), may be particularly vulnerable to such changes due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We evaluated the impacts of environmental variation on demographic rates for the Western Hudson Bay (WH), polar bear subpopulation from 1984 to 2011 using live-recapture and dead-recovery data in a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture–recapture models. We found that survival of female polar bears was related to the annual timing of sea ice break-up and formation. Using estimated vital rates (e.g., survival and reproduction) in matrix projection models, we calculated the growth rate of the WH subpopulation and projected population responses under different environmental scenarios while accounting for parametric uncertainty, temporal variation, and demographic stochasticity. Our analysis suggested a long-term decline in the number of bears from 1185 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] = 993–1411) in 1987 to 806 (95% BCI = 653–984) in 2011. In the last 10 yr of the study, the number of bears appeared stable due to temporary stability in sea ice conditions (mean population growth rate for the period 2001–2010 = 1.02, 95% BCI = 0.98–1.06). Looking forward, we estimated long-term growth rates for the WH subpopulation of ~1.02 (95% BCI = 1.00–1.05) and 0.97 (95% BCI = 0.92–1.01) under hypothetical high and low sea ice conditions, respectively. Our findings support previous evidence for a demographic linkage between sea ice conditions and polar bear population dynamics. Furthermore, we present a robust framework for sensitivity analysis with respect to continued climate change (e.g., to inform scenario planning) and for evaluating the combined effects of climate change and management actions on the status of wildlife populations.

Hudson Bay↗

USGS2014

Demography of a reintroduced population: moving toward management models for an endangered species, the whooping crane

The reintroduction of threatened and endangered species is now a common method for reestablishing populations. Typically, a fundamental objective of reintroduction is to establish a self-sustaining population. Estimation of demographic parameters in reintroduced populations is critical, as these estimates serve multiple purposes. First, they support evaluation of progress toward the fundamental objective via construction of population viability analyses (PVAs) to predict metrics such as probability of persistence. Second, PVAs can be expanded to support evaluation of management actions, via management modeling. Third, the estimates themselves can support evaluation of the demographic performance of the reintroduced population, e.g., via comparison with wild populations. For each of these purposes, thorough treatment of uncertainties in the estimates is critical. Recently developed statistical methods - namely, hierarchical Bayesian implementations of state-space models - allow for effective integration of different types of uncertainty in estimation. We undertook a demographic estimation effort for a reintroduced population of endangered whooping cranes with the purpose of ultimately developing a Bayesian PVA for determining progress toward establishing a self-sustaining population, and for evaluating potential management actions via a Bayesian PVA-based management model. We evaluated individual and temporal variation in demographic parameters based upon a multi-state mark-recapture model. We found that survival was relatively high across time and varied little by sex. There was some indication that survival varied by release method. Survival was similar to that observed in the wild population. Although overall reproduction in this reintroduced population is poor, birds formed social pairs when relatively young, and once a bird was in a social pair, it had a nearly 50% chance of nesting the following breeding season. Also, once a bird had nested, it had a high probability of nesting again. These results are encouraging considering that survival and reproduction have been major challenges in past reintroductions of this species. The demographic estimates developed will support construction of a management model designed to facilitate exploration of management actions of interest, and will provide critical guidance in future planning for this reintroduction. An approach similar to what we describe could be usefully applied to many reintroduced populations.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2013

Demography and population status of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

We evaluated the demography and population status of the Western Hudson Bay (WH) polar bear subpopulation for the period 1984-2011, using live-recapture data from research studies and management actions, and dead-recovery data from polar bears harvested for subsistence purposes or removed during human-bear conflicts. We used a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture-recapture models, coupled with a matrix-based demographic projection model, to integrate several types of data and to incorporate sampling uncertainty, and demographic and environmental stochasticity across the polar bear life cycle. This approach allowed for estimation of a suite of vital rates, including survival and reproduction. These vital rates were used to parameterize a Bayesian population model to evaluate population trends and project potential population outcomes under different environmental scenarios. Survival of female polar bears of all age classes was significantly correlated with sea ice conditions; particularly with the timing of sea ice break-up in the spring and formation in the fall and the interaction of the two. This is consistent with previous findings linking body condition and survival of WH polar bears to environmental changes associated with climatic warming and supports the ecological dependence of polar bears on the availability of sea ice. Survival of male polar bears was not correlated with sea ice conditions. This was likely because a higher proportion of mortality for males was caused by humans rather than by natural factors. For example, approximately 73% of mortality for young male bears (i.e., 5-9 years old) was due to direct human-caused removals, largely because of sex selectivity in the subsistence harvest. The declining trend in size of the WH subpopulation over the period 1987-2004 was similar to a previous analysis (Regehr et al. 2007), suggesting consistency between the two demographic evaluations. Point estimates of abundance were somewhat lower using the updated statistical approach. It is important to recognize that the analyzed data were not collected in a manner that is optimal for estimating abundance and that the goal of the current analysis was to estimate vital rates and demographic trends. Estimates of population growth rate were also derived using a Bayesian population model based on estimated survival and reproductive rates from the multistate capture-recapture model. For the recent decade 2001-2011, the growth rate of the female segment of the population was 1.02 (95% CI = 0.98-1.06). Apparently stable to positive population growth for females may be due in large part to nonlinearity (i.e., short-term stability) in the long-term observed and forecasted trend toward earlier sea ice break-up in western Hudson Bay. The 2011 abundance estimate from this analysis was 806 bears with a 95% Bayesian credible interval of 653-984. This is lower than, but broadly consistent with, the abundance estimate of 1,030 (95% confidence interval = 745-1406) from a 2011 aerial survey (Stapleton et al. 2014). The capture-recapture and aerial survey approaches have different spatial and temporal coverage of the WH subpopulation and, consequently, the effective study population considered by each approach is different.

Report↗

USGS2011

Influence of harvesting pressure on demographic tactics: Implications for wildlife management

1. Demographic tactics within animal populations are shaped by selective pressures. Exploitation exerts additional pressures so that differing demographic tactics might be expected among populations with differences in levels of exploitation. Yet little has been done so far to assess the possible consequences of exploitation on the demographic tactics of mammals, even though such information could influence the choice of effective management strategies. 2. Compared with similar‐sized ungulate species, wild boar Sus scrofa has high reproductive capabilities, which complicates population management. Using a perturbation analysis, we investigated how population growth rates (λ) and critical life‐history stages differed between two wild boar populations monitored for several years, one of which was heavily harvested and the other lightly harvested. 3. Asymptotic λ was 1·242 in the lightly hunted population and 1·115 in the heavily hunted population, while the ratio between the elasticity of adult survival and juvenile survival was 2·63 and 1·27, respectively. A comparative analysis including 21 other ungulate species showed that the elasticity ratio in the heavily hunted population was the lowest ever observed. 4. Compared with expected generation times of similar‐sized ungulates (more than 6 years), wild boar has a fast life‐history speed, especially when facing high hunting pressure. This is well illustrated by our results, where generation times were 3·6 years in the lightly hunted population and only 2·3 years in the heavily hunted population. High human‐induced mortality combined with non‐limiting food resources accounted for the accelerated life history of the hunted population because of earlier reproduction. 5. Synthesis and applications . For wild boar, we show that when a population is facing a high hunting pressure, increasing the mortality in only one age‐class (e.g. adults or juveniles) may not allow managers to limit population growth. We suggest that simulations of management strategies based on context‐specific demographic models are useful for selecting interventions for population control. This type of approach allows the assessment of population response to exploitation by considering a range of plausible scenarios, improving the chance of selecting appropriate management actions.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗