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S.M. Day

Publications and source records attributed to S.M. Day.

6 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2005

Material contrast does not predict earthquake rupture propagation direction

Earthquakes often occur on faults that juxtapose different rocks. The result is rupture behavior that differs from that of an earthquake occurring on a fault in a homogeneous material. Previous 2D numerical simulations have studied simple cases of earthquake rupture propagation where there is a material contrast across a fault and have come to two different conclusions: 1) earthquake rupture propagation direction can be predicted from the material contrast, and 2) earthquake rupture propagation direction cannot be predicted from the material contrast. In this paper we provide observational evidence from 70 years of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, and new 3D numerical simulations. Both the observations and the numerical simulations demonstrate that earthquake rupture propagation direction is unlikely to be predictable on the basis of a material contrast. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2005

Base flow in the Great Lakes Basin

Hydrograph separations were performed using the PART, HYSEP 1, 2, and 3, BFLOW and UKIH methods on 104,293 years of daily streamflow records from 3,936 streamflow-gaging stations in Ontario, Canada and the eight Great Lakes States of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to estimate base-flow index (BFI) and base flow. BFI ranged an average of 0.24 BFI depending on which hydrograph-separation method was used. BFI data from 959 selected streamflow-gaging stations with a combined 28,784 years of daily streamflow data were used to relate BFI to surficial geology and the proportion of surface water within the gaged watersheds. This relation was then used to derive estimates of BFI throughout the Great Lakes, Ottawa River, and upper St. Lawrence River Basins at a scale of 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC) watersheds for the U.S. and tertiary watersheds in Canada. This process was repeated for each of the six hydrograph-separation methods used. When applied to gaged watersheds, model results predicted observed base flow within 0.2 BFI up to 94 percent of the time. Estimates of long-term (length of streamflow record) average annual streamflow in each HUC and tertiary watershed were calculated and used to determine average annual base flow from BFI estimates. Possibilities for future study based on results from this study include long-term trend analysis of base flow and improving the scale at which base-flow estimates can be made.

Great Lakes Basin↗
USGS2002

The 1999 Izmit, Turkey, earthquake: A 3D dynamic stress transfer model of intraearthquake triggering

Before the August 1999 Izmit (Kocaeli), Turkey, earthquake, theoretical studies of earthquake ruptures and geological observations had provided estimates of how far an earthquake might jump to get to a neighboring fault. Both numerical simulations and geological observations suggested that 5 km might be the upper limit if there were no transfer faults. The Izmit earthquake appears to have followed these expectations. It did not jump across any step-over wider than 5 km and was instead stopped by a narrower step-over at its eastern end and possibly by a stress shadow caused by a historic large earthquake at its western end. Our 3D spontaneous rupture simulations of the 1999 Izmit earthquake provide two new insights: (1) the west- to east-striking fault segments of this part of the North Anatolian fault are oriented so as to be low-stress faults and (2) the easternmost segment involved in the August 1999 rupture may be dipping. An interesting feature of the Izmit earthquake is that a 5-km-long gap in surface rupture and an adjacent 25° restraining bend in the fault zone did not stop the earthquake. The latter observation is a warning that significant fault bends in strike-slip faults may not arrest future earthquakes.

Izmit↗
USGS1999

Dynamic 3D simulations of earthquakes on en echelon faults

One of the mysteries of earthquake mechanics is why earthquakes stop. This process determines the difference between small and devastating ruptures. One possibility is that fault geometry controls earthquake size. We test this hypothesis using a numerical algorithm that simulates spontaneous rupture propagation in a three-dimensional medium and apply our knowledge to two California fault zones. We find that the size difference between the 1934 and 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquakes may be the product of a stepover at the southern end of the 1934 earthquake and show how the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake followed physically reasonable expectations when it jumped across en echelon faults to become a large event. If there are no linking structures, such as transfer faults, then strike-slip earthquakes are unlikely to propagate through stepover s >5 km wide.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS1998

Dynamic stress changes during earthquake rupture

We assess two competing dynamic interpretations that have been proposed for the short slip durations characteristic of kinematic earthquake models derived by inversion of earthquake waveform and geodetic data. The first interpretation would require a fault constitutive relationship in which rapid dynamic restrengthening of the fault surface occurs after passage of the rupture front, a hypothesized mechanical behavior that has been referred to as “self-healing.” The second interpretation would require sufficient spatial heterogeneity of stress drop to permit rapid equilibration of elastic stresses with the residual dynamic friction level, a condition we refer to as “geometrical constraint.” These interpretations imply contrasting predictions for the time dependence of the fault-plane shear stresses. We compare these predictions with dynamic shear stress changes for the 1992 Landers ( M 7.3), 1994 Northridge ( M 6.7), and 1995 Kobe ( M 6.9) earthquakes. Stress changes are computed from kinematic slip models of these earthquakes, using a finite-difference method. For each event, static stress drop is highly variable spatially, with high stress-drop patches embedded in a background of low, and largely negative, stress drop. The time histories of stress change show predominantly monotonic stress change after passage of the rupture front, settling to a residual level, without significant evidence for dynamic restrengthening. The stress change at the rupture front is usually gradual rather than abrupt, probably reflecting the limited resolution inherent in the underlying kinematic inversions. On the basis of this analysis, as well as recent similar results obtained independently for the Kobe and Morgan Hill earthquakes, we conclude that, at the present time, the self-healing hypothesis is unnecessary to explain earthquake kinematics.

California↗