Geology topics

S. Keith McKnight

Publications and source records attributed to S. Keith McKnight.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Predicting secretive species distribution using Bayesian networks with and without expert elicitation: A case study incorporating double-blind peer review

1. Species that are secretive, imperilled and consequently data deficient often re-quire conservation action despite limited available information. In such scenarios, Bayesian networks (BNs) offer a versatile and intuitive approach for utilizing various information sources, including literature reviews, community science data sets and expert knowledge. Although it has been suggested that peer review be incorporated during expert elicitations in a BN modelling context, little information exists about how to implement this approach or about how models constructed using this approach perform. 2. We documented a double-blind peer review approach for expert elicitation in a BN modelling context. Further, we compared BN models that were generated by experts who engaged in this peer-review process (PRBNs) to those that were generated by a single expert whose knowledge was supplemented only by a literature review (LRBNs). These comparisons were based on the ability to predict the occurrence (via community science and satellite telemetry data) of a secretive and data deficient species, the King Rail ( Rallus elegans ), throughout a large region. 3. We found that the LRBNs tended to predict King Rail occurrence as well as, or better than, the PRBNs. The LRBNs that we evaluated provided more consistent predictions across our study area. However, preliminary data suggest that the PRBNs may better distinguish between locations of focal and non-focal species within smaller regions. 4. Practical implication. Our framework for utilizing double-blind peer review could serve as a useful guide and have practical implications for incorporating expert knowledge in BN models. Further, our model comparison case study suggests that, in some contexts, a single expert who uses a literature review to inform the creation of BN models may be able to accurately predict the occurrence of a secretive and data-deficient focal species. Taken together, this information could help ecologists decide when a double-blind peer review approach to expert elicitation is necessary and how to implement this approach in a BN modelling context.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennes↗

USGS2020

Conservation–Protection of forests for wildlife in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

The nearly ubiquitous bottomland hardwood forests that historically dominated the Mississippi Alluvial Valley have been greatly reduced in area. In addition, changes in hydrology and forest management have altered the structure and composition of the remaining forests. To ameliorate the detrimental impact of these changes on wildlife, conservation plans have emphasized restoration to increase interior forest habitat, while presuming negligible loss of extant forest in this ecoregion. Without conservation-protection, however, existing forests are subject to conversion to other uses. We assessed the conservation-protection status of land within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley and found that only 10% of total area was protected. Even so, 28% of extant forest was in the current conservation estate. Based on forest patch area, location, and hydrologic influence, we prioritized the attributed need of forest patches for additional conservation-protection. For forest bird conservation, we found 4712 forest patches warranted consideration for conservation-protection but only 109 of these forest patches met our conservation threshold of >2000 ha of core-forest that was >250 m from an edge. Overall, 35% of the area of forest patches considered for conservation-protection was protected within the conservation estate. However, those forest patches identified as most in need of conservation-protection had <10% of their area protected within the current conservation estate.

Forests↗

USGS2020

Mississippi Alluvial Valley Forest-breeding landbird population & quantitative habitat objectives

The Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) is a 9 million ha (22-million-acre) floodplain that supports a diverse and ecologically rich bottomland hardwood forest ecosystem – one of the most productive in North America. It extends from roughly Cape Girardeau, Missouri, to the Gulf of Mexico and features a mosaic of ridges, swales, meander belts, and backswamps. Small changes in elevation (<1 foot) in the MAV are associated with large shifts in hydrology, which in turn, strongly affect plant and animal community composition and structure. The resultant diversity contributes to a fertile and productive floodplain. General forest types in the MAV include: Oak-gum-cypress (41%), elm-ash-cottonwood (29%), oakhickory (17%), and the remainder is other forest types (Oswalt 2013). Within the oak-gum-cypress and elm-ash-cottonwood categories, sugarberry-hackberry-elm-green ash and sweetgum-Nuttall oak-willow oak forest types account for close to one-half of MAV bottomland forest acreage, while baldcypress-tupelo forests are about 16 percent (Oswalt 2013). Although we emphasize bottomland hardwood habitat and associated bird species, this planning effort includes analyses based upon all forest types within the MAV. Hence, the term ‘forest’ refers to all forest types in the MAV.

Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missou↗