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S. E. Hough

Publications and source records attributed to S. E. Hough.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2017

Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard. Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a ~ 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10–15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

Gorkha↗
USGS2012

Southern surface rupture associated with the 1992 M7.4 Landers Earthquake: Did it all happen during the mainshock?

Approximately three minutes after the magnitude 7.4 Landers mainshock on 28 June 1992, a M5.7 aftershock occurred south of the mainshock epicenter, with a location of 34° 7.65′N, 116° 23.82′W. This aftershock was recorded on an array of portable digital seismic instruments deployed in Morongo Valley, 21 km southwest of the event. Although peak accelerations are found to differ by approximately 50% at stations with similar general site conditions within 500 m of each other, there is good coherence of arrivals across the array for frequencies ≤1 Hz. We use the recordings to determine the apparent phase velocity and azimuth of propagation across the array, and show that the event clearly ruptured to the south, with a rupture length of ∼11 km and a rupture velocity of approximately 3.0 km/s. Our results suggest that at least some of the mapped surface rupture south of the town of Yucca Valley (∼11 km in extent; maximum displacement of 20 cm) may have been associated with this aftershock. If this is the case, then the fault that produced the southern end of the Landers mainshock (the Johnson Valley fault) need not continue at depth across the active left-lateral, east-west trending Pinto Mountain fault.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2012

Frequency-dependent attenuation of the Hispaniola Island region of the Caribbean Sea

We determine frequency-dependent attenuation 1/Q( f ) for the Hispaniola region using direct S and Lg waves over five distinct passbands from 0.5 to 16 Hz. Data consist of 832 high-quality vertical and horizontal component waveforms recorded on short-period and broadband seismometers from the devastating 12 January 2010 M 7.0 Haiti earthquake and the rich sequence of aftershocks. For the distance range 250–700 km, we estimate an average frequency-dependent Q( f )=224(±27) f 0.64(±0.073) using horizontal components of motion and note that Q( f ) estimated with Lg at regional distances is very consistent across vertical and horizontal components. We also determine a Q( f )=142(±21) f 0.71(±0.11) for direct S waves at local distances, ≤100 km. The strong attenuation observed on both vertical and horizontal components of motion is consistent with expectations for a tectonically active region.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2012

The 1170 and 1202 CE Dead Sea Rift earthquakes and long-term magnitude distribution of the Dead Sea Fault zone

In combination with the historical record, paleoseismic investigations have provided a record of large earthquakes in the Dead Sea Rift that extends back over 1500 years. Analysis of macroseismic effects can help refine magnitude estimates for large historical events. In this study we consider the detailed intensity distributions for two large events, in 1170 CE and 1202 CE, as determined from careful reinterpretation of available historical accounts, using the 1927 Jericho earthquake as a guide in their interpretation. In the absence of an intensity attenuation relationship for the Dead Sea region, we use the 1927 Jericho earthquake to develop a preliminary relationship based on a modification of the relationships developed in other regions. Using this relation, we estimate M7.6 for the 1202 earthquake and M6.6 for the 1170 earthquake. The uncertainties for both estimates are large and difficult to quantify with precision. The large uncertainties illustrate the critical need to develop a regional intensity attenuation relation. We further consider the distribution of magnitudes in the historic record and show that it is consistent with a b-value distribution with a b-value of 1. Considering the entire Dead Sea Rift zone, we show that the seismic moment release rate over the past 1500 years is sufficient, within the uncertainties of the data, to account for the plate tectonic strain rate along the plate boundary. The results reveal that an earthquake of M7.8 is expected within the zone on average every 1000 years. ?? 2011 Science From Israel/LPPLtd.

Israel Journal of Earth Sciences↗
USGS2011

Aftershocks: Are they earthquakes or afterthoughts?

We tend to view aftershocks as after-thoughts in their scientific as well as societal importance. The media often ask seismologists: “Was it just an aftershock?” with the “just” implying that aftershocks present little cause for concern. Seismologists themselves tend to dismiss the importance of events that follow a large mainshock. Even appreciable aftershocks typically generate only a fraction of the scientific interest and investigation that the mainshock does. However, consideration of recent earthquake sequences suggests that aftershocks can be even more damaging than mainshocks in some cases. That is, although the aftershocks are still, by definition, smaller events, they could be even more damaging by virtue of proximity to population centers or other circumstances.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2011

Toward a consistent model for strain accrual and release for the New Madrid Seismic Zone, central United States

At the heart of the conundrum of seismogenesis in the New Madrid Seismic Zone is the apparently substantial discrepancy between low strain rate and high recent seismic moment release. In this study we revisit the magnitudes of the four principal 1811–1812 earthquakes using intensity values determined from individual assessments from four experts. Using these values and the grid search method of Bakun and Wentworth (1997), we estimate magnitudes around 7.0 for all four events, values that are significantly lower than previously published magnitude estimates based on macroseismic intensities. We further show that the strain rate predicted from postglacial rebound is sufficient to produce a sequence with the moment release of one M max 6.8 every 500 years, a rate that is much lower than previous estimates of late Holocene moment release. However, M w 6.8 is at the low end of the uncertainty range inferred from analysis of intensities for the largest 1811–1812 event. We show that M w 6.8 is also a reasonable value for the largest main shock given a plausible rupture scenario. One can also construct a range of consistent models that permit a somewhat higher M max , with a longer average recurrence rate. It is thus possible to reconcile predicted strain and seismic moment release rates with alternative models: one in which 1811–1812 sequences occur every 500 years, with the largest events being M max ∼6.8, or one in which sequences occur, on average, less frequently, with Mmax of ∼7.0. Both models predict that the late Holocene rate of activity will continue for the next few to 10 thousand years.

New Madrid Seismic Zone↗
USGS2009

Cataloging the 1811-1812 New Madrid, central U.S., earthquake sequence

The three principal New Madrid, central U.S., mainshocks of 1811-1812 were followed by extensive aftershock sequences that included numerous felt events. Although no instrumental data are available for the sequence, historical accounts provide information that can be used to estimate magnitudes and locations for the large aftershocks as well as the mainshocks. Several detailed eyewitness accounts of the sequence provide sufficient information to identify times and rough magnitude estimates for a number of aftershocks that have not been analyzed previously. I also use three extended compilations of felt events to explore the overall sequence productivity. Although one generally cannot estimate magnitudes or locations for individual events, the intensity distributions of recent, instrumentally recorded earthquakes in the region provide a basis for estimation of the magnitude distribution of 1811-1812 aftershocks. The distribution is consistent with a b-value distribution. I estimate Mw 6-6.3 for the three largest identifiable aftershocks, apart from the so-called dawn aftershock on 16 December 1811.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2008

Revisiting the 1872 Owens Valley, California, Earthquake

The 26 March 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is among the largest historical earthquakes in California. The felt area and maximum fault displacements have long been regarded as comparable to, if not greater than, those of the great San Andreas fault earthquakes of 1857 and 1906, but mapped surface ruptures of the latter two events were 2-3 times longer than that inferred for the 1872 rupture. The preferred magnitude estimate of the Owens Valley earthquake has thus been 7.4, based largely on the geological evidence. Reinterpreting macroseismic accounts of the Owens Valley earthquake, we infer generally lower intensity values than those estimated in earlier studies. Nonetheless, as recognized in the early twentieth century, the effects of this earthquake were still generally more dramatic at regional distances than the macroseismic effects from the 1906 earthquake, with light damage to masonry buildings at (nearest-fault) distances as large as 400 km. Macroseismic observations thus suggest a magnitude greater than that of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, which appears to be at odds with geological observations. However, while the mapped rupture length of the Owens Valley earthquake is relatively low, the average slip was high. The surface rupture was also complex and extended over multiple fault segments. It was first mapped in detail over a century after the earthquake occurred, and recent evidence suggests it might have been longer than earlier studies indicated. Our preferred magnitude estimate is Mw 7.8-7.9, values that we show are consistent with the geological observations. The results of our study suggest that either the Owens Valley earthquake was larger than the 1906 San Francisco earthquake or that, by virtue of source properties and/or propagation effects, it produced systematically higher ground motions at regional distances. The latter possibility implies that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San Andreas fault events of comparable magnitude.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2007

Writing on the walls: Geological context and early American spiritual beliefs

Native American culture in many parts of California is preserved in fragmentary oral and conventional written histories, but also in sometimes dramatic petroglyphs and pictographs throughout the state. The symbolism of these images has been interpreted to reflect the natural environment, in particular issues related to rain. Although there is little doubt that rain was of paramount concern to native tribes, I suggest that geological context also played an important role in shaping early spiritual beliefs in general, and petroglyph sites in particular. From the standpoint of Native American philosophies and spiritual beliefs, geological unrest is not merely a reflection but in some cases an actual embodiment of the spiritual world. To understand the significance of petroglyph sites, they must be considered in the context of overall Native American beliefs. In this context, sites of repeated geological unrest would invariably have evolved great spiritual significance. Petroglyph locations and ages may thus provide independent age controls on 'prehistoric' earthquakes in California.

California↗
USGS2007

Quantifying the media bias in intensity surveys: Lessons from the 2001 Bhuj, India, earthquake

Many seismologists have looked at the 26 January 2001 Bhuj earthquake as a key modern calibration event that could be used to improve estimates of magnitudes of large historic mainshocks in stable continental regions. Since no instrumental data are available for important historic events such as the 1819 Allah Bund, India, and the 1811-1812 New Madrid, central U.S. mainshocks, calibration hinges on comparisons of the macroseismic effects of these earthquakes with those of comparable modern earthquakes for which a reliable, instrumentally determined moment magnitude is available. However, although such a comparison is conceptually straightforward, in practice it is complicated by potentially significant inconsistencies in methods used to quantify macroseismic effects in different regions and/or times. For the Bhuj earthquake, extensive intensity data sets have been compiled and published from both media accounts and detailed direct surveys. Comparing the two provides a quantification of the previously suspected media bias, whereby earthquake effects can be exaggerated in media accounts. This bias is a strong function of intensity level, with substantial bias at the highest shaking levels and significantly less bias at low intensities. Because only sparse documentary data are in general available for older historic earthquakes, the results of this study suggest that their inferred intensity distributions might be similarly biased. We further use the survey-based intensity values to develop a new relationship between intensities and ground motions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2004

Revisiting the 23 February 1892 Laguna Salada earthquake

According to some compilations, the Laguna Salada, Baja California, earthquake of 23 February 1892 ranks among the largest earthquakes in California and Baja California in historic times. Although surface rupture was not documented at the time of the earthquake, recent geologic investigations have identified and mapped a rupture on the Laguna Salada fault that can be associated with high probability with the 1892 event (Mueller and Rockwell, 1995). The only intensity-based magnitude estimate for the earthquake, M 7.8, was made by Strand (1980) based on an interpretation of macroseismic effects and a comparison of isoseismal areas with those from instrumentally recorded earthquakes. In this study we reinterpret original accounts of the Laguna Salada earthquake. We assign modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) values in keeping with current practice, focusing on objective descriptions of damage rather than subjective human response and not assigning MMI values to effects that are now known to be poor indicators of shaking level, such as liquefaction and rockfalls. The reinterpreted isoseismal contours and the estimated magnitude are both significantly smaller than those obtained earlier. Using the method of Bakun and Wentworth (1997) we obtain a magnitude estimate of M 7.2 and an optimal epicenter less than 15 km from the center of the mapped Laguna Salada rupture. The isoseismal contours are elongated toward the northwest, which is qualitatively consistent with a directivity effect, assuming that the fault ruptured from southeast to northwest. We suggest that the elongation may also thus reflect wave propagation effects, with more efficient propagation of crustal surface (Lg) waves in the direction of the overall regional tectonic fabric.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2004

Analysing the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes with recent instrumentally recorded aftershocks

Although dynamic stress changes associated with the passage of seismic waves are thought to trigger earthquakes at great distances, more than 60 per cent of all aftershocks appear to be triggered by static stress changes within two rupture lengths of a mainshock. The observed distribution of aftershocks may thus be used to infer details of mainshock rupture geometry. Aftershocks following large mid-continental earthquakes, where background stressing rates are low, are known to persist for centuries, and models based on rate-and-state friction laws provide theoretical support for this inference. Most past studies of the New Madrid earthquake sequence have indeed assumed ongoing microseismicity to be a continuing aftershock sequence. Here we use instrumentally recorded aftershock locations and models of elastic stress change to develop a kinematically consistent rupture scenario for three of the four largest earthquakes of the 1811-1812 New Madrid sequence. Our results suggest that these three events occurred on two contiguous faults, producing lobes of increased stress near fault intersections and end points, in areas where present-day microearthquakes have been hitherto interpreted as evidence of primary mainshock rupture. We infer that the remaining New Madrid mainshock may have occurred more than 200 km north of this region in the Wabash Valley of southern Indiana and Illinois-an area that contains abundant modern microseismicity, and where substantial liquefaction was documented by historic accounts. Our results suggest that future large midplate earthquake sequences may extend over a much broader region than previously suspected.

Nature↗
USGS2004

Remotely triggered seismicity on the United States west coast following the Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake

The M w 7.9 Denali fault earthquake in central Alaska of 3 November 2002 triggered earthquakes across western North America at epicentral distances of up to at least 3660 km. We describe the spatial and temporal development of triggered activity in California and the Pacific Northwest, focusing on Mount Rainier, the Geysers geothermal field, the Long Valley caldera, and the Coso geothermal field. The onset of triggered seismicity at each of these areas began during the Love and Raleigh waves of the M w 7.9 wave train, which had dominant periods of 15 to 40 sec, indicating that earthquakes were triggered locally by dynamic stress changes due to low-frequency surface wave arrivals. Swarms during the wave train continued for ∼4 min (Mount Rainier) to ∼40 min (the Geysers) after the surface wave arrivals and were characterized by spasmodic bursts of small ( M ≤ 2.5) earthquakes. Dynamic stresses within the surface wave train at the time of the first triggered earthquakes ranged from 0.01 MPa (Coso) to 0.09 MPa (Mount Rainier). In addition to the swarms that began during the surface wave arrivals, Long Valley caldera and Mount Rainier experienced unusually large seismic swarms hours to days after the Denali fault earthquake. These swarms seem to represent a delayed response to the Denali fault earthquake. The occurrence of spatially and temporally distinct swarms of triggered seismicity at the same site suggests that earthquakes may be triggered by more than one physical process.

North America↗
USGS2004

Scientific overview and historical context of the 1811-1812 new Madrid earthquake sequence

The central and eastern United States has experienced only 5 historic earthquakes with Mw 7.0, four during the New Madrid sequence of 1811-1812: three principal mainshocks and the so-called «dawn aftershock» following the first mainshock. Much of the historic earthquake research done in the United States has focused on the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), because the largest New Madrid earthquakes may represent the archetype for the most damaging earthquakes to be expected in intraplate regions. Published magnitude values ranging from 7.0 to 8.75 have generally been based on macroseismic effects, which provide the most direct constraint on source size for the events. Critical to the interpretation of these accounts is an understanding of their historic context. Early settlments clustered along waterways, where substantial amplification of seismic waves is expected. Analyzing the New Madrid intensity values with a consideration of these effects yields preferred values of Mw 7.2-7.3, 7.0, and 7.4-7.5 for the December, January, and February mainshocks, respectively, and of 7.0 for the «dawn aftershock». These values are consistent with other lines of evidence, including scaling relationships. Finally, I show that accounts from the New Madrid sequence reveal evidence for remotely triggered earthquakes well outside the NMSZ. Remotely triggered earthquakes represent a potentially important new wrinkle in historic earthquake research, as their ground motions can sometimes be confused with mainshock ground motions.

Annals of Geophysics↗
USGS2003

Intraplate triggered earthquakes: Observations and interpretation

We present evidence that at least two of the three 1811-1812 New Madrid, central United States, mainshocks and the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake triggered earthquakes at regional distances. In addition to previously published evidence for triggered earthquakes in the northern Kentucky/southern Ohio region in 1812, we present evidence suggesting that triggered events might have occurred in the Wabash Valley, to the south of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and near Charleston, South Carolina. We also discuss evidence that earthquakes might have been triggered in northern Kentucky within seconds of the passage of surface waves from the 23 January 1812 New Madrid mainshock. After the 1886 Charleston earthquake, accounts suggest that triggered events occurred near Moodus, Connecticut, and in southern Indiana. Notwithstanding the uncertainty associated with analysis of historical accounts, there is evidence that at least three out of the four known Mw 7 earthquakes in the central and eastern United States seem to have triggered earthquakes at distances beyond the typically assumed aftershock zone of 1-2 mainshock fault lengths. We explore the possibility that remotely triggered earthquakes might be common in low-strain-rate regions. We suggest that in a low-strain-rate environment, permanent, nonelastic deformation might play a more important role in stress accumulation than it does in interplate crust. Using a simple model incorporating elastic and anelastic strain release, we show that, for realistic parameter values, faults in intraplate crust remain close to their failure stress for a longer part of the earthquake cycle than do faults in high-strain-rate regions. Our results further suggest that remotely triggered earthquakes occur preferentially in regions of recent and/or future seismic activity, which suggests that faults are at a critical stress state in only some areas. Remotely triggered earthquakes may thus serve as beacons that identify regions of long-lived stress concentration.

South Carolina↗
USGS2003

Estimation of ground motion for Bhuj (26 January 2001; Mw 7.6) and for future earthquakes in India

Only five moderate and large earthquakes ( M w ≥5.7) in India—three in the Indian shield region and two in the Himalayan arc region—have given rise to multiple strong ground-motion recordings. Near-source data are available for only two of these events. The Bhuj earthquake ( M w 7.6), which occurred in the shield region, gave rise to useful recordings at distances exceeding 550 km. Because of the scarcity of the data, we use the stochastic method to estimate ground motions. We assume that (1) S waves dominate at R < 100 km and Lg waves at R ≥ 100 km, (2) Q = 508 f 0.48 is valid for the Indian shield as well as the Himalayan arc region, (3) the effective duration is given by fc -1 + 0.05R, where fc is the corner frequency, and R is the hypocentral distance in kilometer, and (4) the acceleration spectra are sharply cut off beyond 35 Hz. We use two finite-source stochastic models. One is an approximate model that reduces to the ω 2 -source model at distances greater that about twice the source dimension. This model has the advantage that the ground motion is controlled by the familiar stress parameter, Δ σ . In the other finite-source model, which is more reliable for near-source ground-motion estimation, the high-frequency radiation is controlled by the strength factor, sfact , a quantity that is physically related to the maximum slip rate on the fault. We estimate Δ σ needed to fit the observed Amax and Vmax data of each earthquake (which are mostly in the far field). The corresponding sfact is obtained by requiring that the predicted curves from the two models match each other in the far field up to a distance of about 500 km. The results show: (1) The Δ σ that explains Amax data for shield events may be a function of depth, increasing from ∼50 bars at 10 km to ∼400 bars at 36 km. The corresponding sfact values range from 1.0-2.0. The Δ σ values for the two Himalayan arc events are 75 and 150 bars ( sfact = 1.0 and 1.4). (2) The Δ σ required to explain Vmax data is, roughly, half the corresponding value for Amax, while the same sfact explains both sets of data. (3) The available far-field Amax and Vmax data for the Bhuj mainshock are well explained by Δ σ = 200 and 100 bars, respectively, or, equivalently, by sfact = 1.4. The predicted Amax and Vmax in the epicentral region of this earthquake are 0.80 to 0.95 g and 40 to 55 cm/sec, respectively.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗