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Ryan D. Gold

Publications and source records attributed to Ryan D. Gold.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Evidence for nonlocal sediment transport on hillslopes from fault scarp morphology

Hillslope sediment transport processes such as bioturbation, rainsplash, and granular mechanics occur across the entire planet. Yet, it remains uncertain how these small-scale processes act together to shape landscapes. Longstanding hillslope diffusion theory posits that hillslope processes are spatially limited, whereas new concepts of nonlocal sediment transport argue otherwise. However, each theory produces subtly different, but distinct, predictions for the evolution of fault scarps. We use the topographic change of fault scarps to demonstrate that hillslope processes produce nonlocal sediment transport. Analysis of a global compilation of 340 dated single-earthquake scarp profiles reveals a statistically significant ( p < 0.05 ) relationship between scarp age and scarp asymmetry, here defined as the ratio of imaginary to real components of the Fourier transform of absolute slope. Numerical simulations show that nonlocal models predict this relationship, whereas hillslope diffusion models do not. To further investigate this result, we examined the depositional geometry of a well-exposed colluvial wedge along the Wasatch fault in central Utah, United States. Our quantitative comparison between the exposure and numerical simulations reveals better agreement with the nonlocal model. Nonlocal sediment transport theory appears to best capture the physics of how hillslope processes shape fault scarps, yet hillslope diffusion provides a useful approximation in many cases. As the processes that act on fault scarps are nearly identical to those acting on hillslopes, our results provide evidence supporting nonlocality as a generalized model of hillslope sediment transport.

Utah↗
USGS2024

U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program decadal science strategy, 2024–33

Executive Summary Earthquakes represent one of our Nation’s most significant and costly natural hazards, with estimated annual loses from earthquakes close to $15 billion in 2023. Over the past two centuries, 37 U.S. States have experienced an earthquake exceeding a magnitude of 5, and 50 percent of States have a significant potential for future damaging shaking; these statistics speak to the need for nationwide interest and investment in earthquake hazard characterization and risk reduction. Authorized under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Authorization Act, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) provides the scientific information, situational awareness, and knowledge necessary to reduce deaths, injuries, and economic losses from earthquakes and earthquake-induced tsunamis, landslides, and soil liquefaction. The EHP supports activities in three focused topical areas: (1) earthquake monitoring, (2) hazard assessment, and (3) applied research, using the results of each—and the coordination among them—to further support risk translation and communication in regions at risk nationwide. For earthquake monitoring, the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), a cooperative effort of USGS networks, university partner regional seismic networks, and real-time geodetic networks, collects and analyzes data on earthquakes; issues timely, reliable notifications of their occurrence and impacts; and provides data for earthquake research, hazard, and risk assessment as a foundation for building an earthquake-resilient Nation. The USGS-operated ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system is a recent addition to EHP’s ANSS infrastructure. In the realm of earthquake hazard assessment, the EHP contributes to earthquake risk mitigation strategies by developing the National Seismic Hazard Model and maps, and other related products, that describe the likelihood and potential effects of earthquakes nationwide, especially in the urban areas of highest risk. The EHP also conducts research on the causes, characteristics, and effects of earthquakes and prioritizes work that directly increases the accuracy and precision of earthquake hazards assessments, earthquake forecasts, and earthquake monitoring and situational-awareness products and that supports the Nation’s earthquake mitigation practices. Bridging the EHP’s efforts across research, hazard assessments, and earthquake monitoring is a broad and comprehensive collection of earthquake information products, including the National Seismic Hazard Model, ShakeAlert, and other products describing impact, such as ShakeMap and PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), which have been developed and integrated into EHP’s real-time monitoring systems. EHP funds external partners to carry out many important collaborative activities through an active external grants program—one of the largest in the USGS—and through cooperative agreements with other partners such as the university-operated regional seismic networks, funded as part of the ANSS. To continue its support of earthquake hazard characterization and risk reduction, the EHP aims to strengthen its foundational products and practices while positioning itself to respond to the evolving needs of the Nation and follow best practices of the scientific community. This document describes a strategy for the program to ensure it can meet these demands. The foundational priorities outlined in this strategy represent those activities that remain critical to the core functionality of the program and those that can be supported under current fiscal year 2024-level appropriations. Priorities described as aspirational are important for future growth, and to maintain the program’s position as a leading global resource in earthquake science, but would require increases in appropriated funding to be fully realized. Across the program’s portfolio of activities, several major themes have been identified as the most critical activities to advance EHP science over the coming decade. Together, these activities provide the framework necessary to integrate critical hazard characterization and risk reduction activities across the program. They provide the structure for research to advance the understanding of where, when, and why earthquakes occur and how we can use improved knowledge to drive short-term and actionable forecasts of seismic activity. They expand the usefulness of critical earthquake products and advance the sophistication of those products to keep pace with the rapidly evolving needs of an ever-expanding user base while maintaining the position of the USGS as a global leader in earthquake science. Focus on system-level science. Establish an automated earthquake-processing pipeline. Enhance the accuracy and reliability of the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system and plan for extension to other regions. Implement time-dependent earthquake forecasting. Develop physically realistic models. Expand computational capacity. This science strategy is organized into three primary sections. The first section provides an overview of the EHP and its budget, governance, and program council. Readers familiar with the program may wish to focus on the second section, which describes the core of the science strategy, including priorities across each of the EHP’s major program activities in monitoring, hazard assessment, and targeted research. The third section outlines science priorities that cut across program activities, including those involving collaborations external to the EHP.

American Samoa, Guam, Northern Marianas Islands, U↗
USGS2024

Limited preservation of strike-slip surface displacement in the geomorphic record

Offset geomorphic markers are commonly used to interpret slip history of strike-slip faults and have played an important role in forming earthquake recurrence models. These data sets are typically analyzed using cumulative probability methods to interpret average amounts of slip in past earthquakes. However, interpretation of the geomorphic record to infer surface slip history is complicated by slip variability, measurement uncertainty, and modification of offset features in the landscape. To investigate how well geomorphic data record surface slip, we use offset measurements from recent strike-slip surface ruptures ( n = 39), faults with geomorphic evidence of multiple strike-slip earthquakes ( n = 29), and synthetic slip distributions with added noise ( n > 10,000) to examine the constraints of the geomorphic record and the underlying assumptions of the cumulative offset probability distribution analysis method. We find that the geomorphic record is unlikely to resolve more than two paleo-slip distributions, except in specific cases with low slip variability, high slip-per-event, and semiarid climate. In cases where site-specific conditions allow for interpretation of more than two earthquakes, lateral extrapolation along a fault is not straightforward because on-fault displacement and distributed deformation may be spatially variable in each earthquake. We also find that average slip in modern earthquakes is adequately recovered by probability methods, but the reported prevalence of strike-slip faults with characteristic slip history is not supported by geomorphic data. We also propose updated methods to interpret slip history and construct uncertainty bounds for paleo-slip distributions.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2024

Neotectonic mapping of Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico is part of the Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands microplate, along the Caribbean–North American plate boundary between the Puerto Rico trench subduction zone and the Muertos Trough incipient subduction zone. Despite recent seismicity and geodetically constrained deformation of ~3 mm/yr of left-lateral shear across the island, Quaternary fault locations remain largely uncertain. Preservation of recent faulting in the landscape is masked by distributed faulting, high weathering rates of the tropical climate, steep topography, frequent landsliding, and extensive agriculture and urbanization along coastlines and river valleys. We present remote neotectonic mapping of historical aerial imagery from the 1930s-60s and <1-m lidar topography, integrated with field observations, to create an updated active fault map of Puerto Rico. We focus on faults that offset younger geomorphic surfaces, with ages estimated by geologic mapping, OSL and radiocarbon dating, and morphologic interpretations. We present new evidence for Quaternary activity on seven faults, including the South Lajas, Salinas, Punta Montalva, Great Southern Puerto Rico, Cerro Goden, Parguera, and San Marcos faults. We find that active faulting occurs preferentially along the southern and western coasts and does not always spatially coincide with preexisting bedrock faults, possibly reflecting partial reactivation of older faults in the modern strain field.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2024

How does the onset of offset influence geologic slip rates?

Geologic slip rates are typically based on the displacement accrued by a geomorphic or stratigraphic feature and the age of the offset feature. Because slip rates are commonly calculated by dividing the displacement of a faulted marker by its age, they contain two open time intervals: the elapsed time between the age of an offset feature and the age of the earthquake that displaced the feature, and the time between the present‐day and the most recent earthquake. Here, we explore the influence of including unconstrained open intervals in geologic slip rate calculations. We test the degree to which these open intervals affect geologic slip rates and their uncertainties, and we find that their influence depends primarily on mean earthquake recurrence intervals (RIs). Slip rates on faults with longer RIs, such as the Wasatch fault, can be greatly influenced by an increase of up to 20% when accounting for open intervals. In contrast, slip rates on faults with shorter RIs, such as the San Andreas fault, are only slightly influenced by the assumption that slip rates calculated over open intervals approximate those calculated over closed intervals. Our analyses indicate that faults with moderate slip rates (∼0.2–5 mm/yr) are sensitive to both open interval effects themselves, as well as methods to quantify and account for these effects. We re‐evaluate how slip rates are calculated and defined in displacement–time space using published deformation records. We explore the utility of assigning a probability distribution to the initiation of offset of the oldest faulted feature and the timing of the most recent earthquake (MRE). We find that calculating geologic slip rates without using probability distributions that capture the timing of the MRE and the onset of offset of the oldest faulted feature, especially on slow‐to‐moderate slip rate faults, can lead to systematic underestimation of average geologic slip rates.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2024

Limited evidence of late Quaternary tectonic surface deformation in the eastern Tennessee seismic zone, USA

The ~300-km-long eastern Tennessee seismic zone (ETSZ), USA, is the second-most seismically active region east of the Rocky Mountains. Seismicity generally occurs below the Paleozoic fold-and-thrust belt within the Mesoproterozoic basement, at depths of 5–26 km, and earthquake magnitudes during the instrumental record have been moment magnitude ( M w )≤4.8. Evidence of surface deformation may not exist or be difficult to detect because of the vegetated and soil-mantled landscape, landslides, locally steep topography, anthropogenic landscape modification, or long, irregular recurrence intervals between surface-rupturing earthquakes. Despite the deep seismicity, analog models indicate that accumulation of strike-slip or oblique-slip displacement at depth could be expected to propagate upward through the Paleozoic section, producing a detectable surficial signal of distributed faulting. To identify potential surface deformation, we interrogated the landscape at different spatial scales. We evaluated morphotectonic and channel metrics, such as channel sinuosity and catchment-scale hypsometry. Additionally, we mapped possible fault-related topographic features on 1-m lidar. Finally, we integrated our observations with available bedrock and Quaternary surficial mapping and subsurface geophysical data. At a regional scale, most morphotectonic and channel metrics have a strong lithologic control. Within smaller regions of similar lithology, we observe changes in landscape metrics like channel sinuosity and catchment-scale hypsometry that spatially correlate with new lineaments identified in this study and previously mapped east–west Cenozoic faults. These faults have apparent left-lateral offsets, are optimally oriented to slip in the current stress field, and match kinematics from recent focal mechanisms, but do not clearly preserve evidence of late Pleistocene or Holocene tectonic surface deformation. Most newly mapped lineaments might be explained by either tectonic or non-tectonic origins, such as fluvial or karst processes. We also re-evaluated a previously described paleoseismic site and interpret that the exposure does not record evidence of late Pleistocene faulting but instead is explained by fluvial stratigraphy.

Tennessee↗
USGS2023

Rapid surface rupture mapping from satellite data: The 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake sequence

The 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake sequence produced > 500 km of surface rupture primarily on the left‐lateral East Anatolian (~345 km) and Çardak (~175 km) faults. Constraining the length and magnitude of surface displacement on the causative faults is critical for loss estimates, recovery efforts, rapid identification of impacted infrastructure, and fault displacement hazard analysis. To support these efforts, we rapidly mapped the surface rupture from satellite data with support from remote sensing and field teams, and released the results to the public in near‐real time. Detailed surface rupture mapping commenced on 7 February and continued as high‐resolution (< 1.0 m/pixel) optical images from WorldView satellites (2023 Maxar) became available. We interpreted the initial simplified rupture trace from subpixel offset fields derived from Advanced Land Observation Satellite2 and Sentinel‐1A synthetic aperture radar image pairs available on 8 and 10 February, respectively. The mapping was released publicly on 10 February, with frequent updates, and published in final form four months postearthquake ( Reitman, Briggs, et al. , 2023 ). This publicly available, rapid mapping helped guide fieldwork and constrained U.S. Geological Survey finite‐fault and loss estimate models, as well as stress change estimates and dynamic rupture models.

Kahramanmaraş↗
USGS2023

Seismic source characterization in central and eastern United States

This report documents earthquake geology studies conducted in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) between 2018 and 2023. The overarching goal of the earthquake geology studies was to identify and characterize fault sources in the New Madrid seismic zone, the eastern Tennessee seismic zone, and the Charleston seismic zone. These studies primarily relied on the interpretation of high-resolution topography, morphotectonic analysis of 10-meter (m) digital elevation models, field reconnaissance, and integration with new and existing subsurface datasets. Results from each study are placed into a seismic hazard framework. The first two chapters focus on the New Madrid seismic zone, which is the most seismically active region in the CEUS, to better characterize the southern extent of the Reelfoot fault in the Obion River valley, and identify and characterize proposed faults along the margins of Crowleys Ridge in the center of the Mississippi River embayment. Crowleys Ridge is a ~320-kilometer (km) long landform that has been proposed to be formed by intermittent faulting or erosion from the Mississippi River. Legacy seismic reflection data documented Eocene, Mesozoic, and older strata offset by faults on the margins of the ridge (Van Arsdale et al., 1999). A morphotectonic analysis of the topography along Crowleys Ridge indicated southward increases in catchment hypsometric integral and slope. Neotectonic mapping on high-resolution lidar data revealed a series of subparallel linear fault and fold scarps along the margins of Crowleys Ridge. These scarps offset previously mapped fluvial and alluvial surfaces that were <56 thousand years ago (ka) (Rittenour et al., 2007). Integration of new seismic reflection and airborne electromagnetic data, legacy seismic data, with the landscape morphotectonic analysis and neotectonic mapping supports the interpretation that Crowleys Ridge is bound by faults that have been active in the late Quaternary but do not experience modern seismicity. By placing these newly characterized faults into the regional framework, the Crowleys Ridge faults can be interpreted as thrust faults associated with stepovers in the overall dextral fault system, similar to the Reelfoot fault. The results of these studies indicate that seismicity has migrated eastward during the late Quaternary, with the Reelfoot fault accommodating much of the modern-day strain. The Reelfoot fault ruptured in the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence (Fuller, 1912) and has a record of past large earthquakes (Tuttle et al., 2002; 2019). Whereas the northern extent of the fault intersects the Mississippi River and has well-expressed surface deformation, questions remained regarding the southern limit of seismicity, deformation, and overall fault length. Analysis of <25 ka river terraces along the Obion River valley in western Tennessee revealed subtle fold scarps, with increased magnitudes of deformation on progressively older terraces, indicative of a longer record of fault movement than has been documented by paleoseismic and paleoliquefaction studies alone (e.g., Kelson et al., 1996; Gold et al., 2019; Tuttle et al., 2019). The third chapter integrates surface and subsurface data to assess the landscape record of surface deformation in the eastern Tennessee seismic zone (ETSZ), which is the second most seismically active region in the CEUS. Seismicity in the ETSZ is deep (5-26 km) and focused in the Proterozoic rock below the Paleozoic detachment. Although the region has experienced moderate (≤ Mw 4.8) seismicity in the instrumental record, the lack of a large historical earthquake and limited paleoseismic and paleoliquefaction evidence of prehistoric large ground shaking events have made seismic hazard characterization of the region challenging. Two models have emerged to predict the style and orientation of active surface deformation in the ETSZ. One suggests that surface rupturing earthquakes would exploit pre-existing faults along the regional structural grain (Cox et al., 2022). The second model advocates for primarily strike-slip motion on east-west or north-south faults, following analyses of recent seismicity (Chapman et al., 1997; Dunn and Chapman, 2006; Daniels and Peng, 2022) and the modern stress field (Levandowski et al., 2018). In our analysis, neotectonic mapping of high-resolution lidar data reveals a concentration of lineaments with east-west orientations, with some corresponding to previously mapped east-west faults that crosscut the northeast-southwest regional structural grain from the Paleozoic orogeny. A morphotectonic analysis of catchments and river segments within the same lithology indicates subtle differences that may be indicative of a longer-term tectonic uplift signal. These changes in morphotectonic metrics spatially correspond to newly mapped lineaments and previously mapped east-west trending faults. Within a regional framework, we suggest that diffuse surface deformation associated with deep seismicity is accommodated on a network on east-west faults. However, further work is needed to better understand the potential late Pleistocene fault activity of these lineaments, and we propose that the ETSZ is still best characterized as an area source in seismic hazard models. The final chapter presents preliminary work to create a geographic information system (GIS) database of recent studies analyzing surface and subsurface datasets and interpretations in the Charleston seismic zone, South Carolina. This GIS database will serve as a foundation for future work to analyze new quality level 1 (QL1; <0.5 m resolution) lidar data over the 1886 magnitude (M) 7 Charleston epicentral region to identify possible fault source sources responsible for the 1886 or other surface-rupturing events. This chapter briefly summarizes three new subsurface datasets, including seismic reflection (Pratt et al., 2022; Liberty, 2022) and seismicity data (Chapman et al., 2016), and one new surface dataset (Marple and Hurd, 2020), and their interpretations of potentially active lineaments and faults in the region.

central and eastern United States↗
USGS2022

The Pondosa fault zone: A distributed dextral-normal-oblique fault system in northeastern California, USA

The tectonic domains of Basin and Range extension, Cascadia subduction zone contraction, and Walker Lane dextral transtension converge in the Mushroom Rock region of northeastern California, USA. We combined analysis of high-resolution topographic data, bedrock mapping, 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology, low-temperature thermochronology, and existing geologic and fault mapping to characterize an extensive dextral-normal-oblique fault system called the Pondosa fault zone. This fault zone extends north-northwest from the Pit River east of Soldier Mountain, California, into moderately high-relief volcanic topography as far north as the Bartle (California) townsite with normal and dextral offset apparent in geomorphology and fault exposures. New and existing 40 Ar/ 39 Ar and radiocarbon dating of offset lava flows provides ages of 12.4 ka to 9.6 Ma for late Cenozoic stratigraphic units. Scarp morphology and geomorphic expression indicate that the fault system was active in the late Pleistocene. The Pondosa fault zone may represent a dextral-oblique accommodation zone between north-south–oriented Basin and Range extensional fault systems and/or part of the Sierra Nevada–Oregon Coast block microplate boundary.

California↗
USGS2022

Off-fault deformation in regions of complex fault geometries: the 2013, Mw7.7, Baluchistan rupture (Pakistan)

Observations of recent earthquake surface ruptures show that ground deformations include a localized component occurring on faults, and an off-fault component affecting the surrounding medium. This second component is also referred to as off-fault deformation (OFD). The localized component generally occurs on complex networks of faults that connect at depth onto a unique fault plane, whereas OFD consists of distributed fracturing and diffuse deformation of the bulk volume, and occurs over scales of hundreds of meters to kilometers around the faults. High-resolution optical image correlation presents a unique potential to characterize the complexity of the surface displacements, including on-fault displacements and OFDs. In this study, we used sub-pixel correlation of 0.5-m resolution optical images to measure the surface displacement field with a <20 cm accuracy for a 30-km long section of the 2013 M w 7.7 Baluchistan, Pakistan, rupture. Our results document significant variability in the fault displacements, associated with large proportions of OFD in regions of fault geometrical complexity. Conversely, in regions where the fault geometry is simple, surface deformation is entirely accommodated by the primary faults with 0% OFD. When combining the localized deformation on faults with the OFD, we show that the total surface displacement budget is constant along the strike of the rupture, despite strong variations observed in the rupture geometry. Based on this analysis, we propose an idealized scenario of earthquake surface deformation as a function of the rupture geometrical variations.

Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth↗
USGS2022

Climatic influence on the expression of strike-slip faulting

Earthquakes on strike-slip faults are preserved in the geomorphic record by offset landforms that span a range of displacements, from small offsets created in the most recent earthquake (MRE) to large offsets that record cumulative slip from multiple prior events. An exponential decay in the number of large cumulative offsets has been observed on many faults, and a leading hypothesis is that climate controls the rate of decay. We present offset measurements compiled from 31 studies of strike-slip faults with evidence of multiple paleoearthquakes and corresponding climatic and tectonic information to test this hypothesis. Both the global compilation and numerical landscape evolution modeling reveal that the decay rate in large offsets is negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation. Faults in dry regions with high drainage density more commonly preserve small MRE offsets, and faults in wet regions with lower drainage density more commonly preserve a mix of small MRE and large cumulative offsets. Geomorphology of faults in different climates supports this result and illustrates precipitation’s effect on the development and preservation of offset channels. Our findings imply that current and past climate affect how displacement on strike-slip faults is recorded and interpreted to inform earthquake history.

Geology↗
USGS2022

Revised earthquake geology inputs for the central and eastern United States and southeast Canada for the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model

It has been nearly a decade since updates to seismic and fault sources in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) were last assessed for the 2012 Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for nuclear facilities (CEUS-SSCn) and 2014 United States Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. In advance of the 2023 NSHM update, we created 3 related geospatial databases to summarize and characterize new fault source information for the CEUS. These include fault section, fault-zone polygon, and earthquake geology (fault slip rate, earthquake recurrence intervals) databases which document updates to fault parameters used in prior seismic hazard models in this region. The 2012 CEUS-SSCn and 2014 NSHM fault models served as a foundation, as we revised and added fault sources where new published studies documented significant changes to our understanding of fault location, geometry, or activity. We added 9 new fault sections that meet the criteria of (1) a length ≥7 km, (2) evidence of recurrent Quaternary tectonic activity, and (3) documentation that is publicly available in a peer-reviewed source. The prior CEUS models only included 6 fault sections (sources) and 10 fault-zone polygons (previously called repeating large magnitude earthquake (RLME) polygons). The revised databases include 15 fault sections and 10 fault zone polygons. Updates to the faults constitute a 150% increase in fault sections, but no change in the number of fault-zone polygons, although some fault-zone polygons differ from RLME polygons used in prior models. No faults were removed from past models. Several seismic zones and suspected faults were evaluated but not included in this update due to a lack of information about fault location, geometry, or recurrent Quaternary activity. These updates to the fault sections, fault-zone polygons, and earthquake geology databases will inform fault geometry and activity rates of CEUS sources during the 2023 NSHM implementation.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2022

Western U.S. geologic deformation model for use in the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model 2023

Fault geometry and slip rates are key input data for geologic deformation models, which are a fundamental component of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHAs). However, geologic sources for PSHA have traditionally been limited to faults with field‐based slip rate constraints, which results in underrepresentation of known, but partially characterized, active faults. Here, we evaluate fault geometries and geologic fault slip rates for the western United States to construct a new geologic deformation model for the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model 2023 update (NSHM23). In previous NSHM iterations, only faults with published geologic slip rates were included. In the NSHM23 fault sections database compilation, this inclusion criterion was expanded to include faults without known slip rates. In this updated geologic deformation model, preferred slip rates and associated uncertainty distributions are incorporated for faults with slip rates derived from field studies. For faults without site‐specific slip rates, we evaluate a suite of uncertainty distributions derived from broad slip rate categories in the U.S. Geological Survey Quaternary Fault and Fold Database. Preferred slip rate distributions are selected via comparison with geodetic strain rates in tectonic subregions. The resultant moment of the geologic deformation model is generally in deficit compared with the geodetic moment within each region. Primary advances in the NSHM23 geologic deformation model include the following: (1) slip rates are presented as preferred values with uncertainties rather than single values; (2) the representation of the western U.S. active fault network is more complete; and (3) the geologic deformation model leverages geodetic information to assess regional constraints on geologic fault slip rates.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2022

Simplifying complex fault data for systems-level analysis: Earthquake geology inputs for U.S. NSHM 2023

As part of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update planned for 2023, two databases were prepared to more completely represent Quaternary-active faulting across the western United States: the NSHM23 fault sections database (FSD) and earthquake geology database (EQGeoDB). In prior iterations of NSHM, fault sections were included only if a field-measurement-derived slip rate was estimated along a given fault. By expanding this inclusion criteria, we were able to assess a larger set of faults for use in NSHM23. The USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database served as a guide for assessing possible additions to the NSHM23 FSD. Reevaluating available data from published sources yielded an increase of fault sections from ~650 faults in NSHM18 to ~1,000 faults proposed for use in NSHM23. EQGeoDB, a companion dataset linked to NSHM23 FSD, contains geologic slip rate estimates for fault sections included in FSD. Together, these databases serve as common input data used in deformation modeling, earthquake rupture forecasting, and additional downstream uses in NSHM development.

Scientific Data↗
USGS2022

Mid- to late Quaternary geomorphic and paleoseismic event history, Cheraw fault, southeastern Colorado

Despite its subdued expression and isolated location within the Great Plains of southeastern Colorado, the 80 km long Cheraw fault may be one of the most active faults in North America east of the Rocky Mountains. We present geomorphic analyses, geochronology, and paleoseismic trenching data to (1) document the rupture history of the ∼45 km long southwestern section of the Cheraw fault over the past ∼19 ka, and (2) evaluate slip rate changes for the entire fault over the past ∼200 ka. Results from new trenches excavated at the Old Ranch site show evidence of four surface rupture events since ∼19 ka, each with an average vertical displacement of 0.75 ± 0.15 m. An additional event is likely only slightly older than ∼19 ka. Evidence for relatively small displacements at and near the Old Ranch site indicates that most of these earthquakes were magnitude ( M ) 7 or less and likely did not rupture the full length of the Cheraw fault. Since ∼19 ka, the average slip rate is ∼0.16 ± 0.3 mm/yr near the Old Ranch site with an average interevent time of 3–5 ka. New geochronologic data for mid‐ to late‐Quaternary geomorphic surfaces cut by the Cheraw fault imply rapid incision by local Arkansas River tributaries from ∼145 to ∼100 ka. Maximum vertical offsets of 7–9 m for these surfaces indicate that from ∼19 to >200 ka the average slip rate was no greater than ∼0.03 mm/yr. The accelerated slip rate since ∼19 ka indicates a possible response to rapid erosional unloading and/or a limited late Cenozoic, <40 ka, paleoseismic history for the Cheraw fault.

Colorado↗
USGS2022

A geomorphic-process-based cellular automata model of colluvial wedge morphology and stratigraphy

The development of colluvial wedges at the base of fault scarps following normal-faulting earthquakes serves as a sedimentary record of paleoearthquakes and is thus crucial in assessing seismic hazard. Although there is a large body of observations of colluvial wedge development, connecting this knowledge to the physics of sediment transport can open new frontiers in our understanding. To explore theoretical colluvial wedge evolution, we develop a cellular automata model driven by the production and disturbance (e.g., bioturbative reworking) of mobile regolith and fault-scarp collapse. We consider both 90 and 60 ∘ dipping faults and allow the colluvial wedges to develop over 2000 model years. By tracking sediment transport time, velocity, and provenance, we classify cells into analogs for the debris and wash sedimentary facies commonly described in paleoseismic studies. High values of mobile regolith production and disturbance rates produce relatively larger and more wash-facies-dominated wedges, whereas lower values produced relatively smaller, debris-facies-dominated wedges. Higher lateral collapse rates lead to more debris facies relative to wash facies. Many of the modeled colluvial wedges fully developed within 2000 model years after the earthquake, with many being much faster when process rates are high. Finally, for scenarios with the same amount of vertical displacement, differently sized colluvial wedges developed depending on the rates of geomorphic processes and fault dip. A change in these variables, say by environmental change such as precipitation rates, could theoretically result in different colluvial wedge facies assemblages for the same characteristic earthquake rupture scenario. Finally, the stochastic nature of collapse events, when coupled with high disturbance, illustrates that multiple phases of colluvial deposition are theoretically possible for a single earthquake event.

Earth Surface Dynamics↗
USGS2022

How similar was the 1983 Mw 6.9 Borah Peak earthquake rupture to its surface-faulting predecessors along the northern Lost River fault zone (Idaho, USA)?

We excavated trenches at two paleoseismic sites bounding a trans-basin bedrock ridge (the Willow Creek Hills) along the northern Lost River fault zone to explore the uniqueness of the 1983 M w 6.9 Borah Peak earthquake compared to its prehistoric predecessors. At the Sheep Creek site on the southernmost Warm Springs section, two earthquakes occurred at 9.8−14.0 ka (95% confidence) and 6.5−7.1 ka; each had ∼1.9 m of vertical displacement. About 4 km to the southeast, across the Willow Creek Hills, two ruptures at the Arentson Gulch site on the northernmost Thousand Springs section occurred at 9.0−14.7 ka and 6.1−7.5 ka with ∼1.9 m of vertical displacement each. We synthesize these and previous paleoseismic results into a model of five postglacial (<15 ka) ruptures along a ∼65 km reach of the northern Lost River fault zone. Our results show that the Borah Peak earthquake (34 km; 0.9 m mean displacement) was unique compared to previous ruptures that had both longer and shorter rupture lengths (∼25−38 km), more displacement (mean of ∼1.3−1.4 m), and equal or greater magnitude ( M w 6.9−7.1) than that in the 1983 earthquake. These ruptures support a hypothesis of variable rupture length and displacement on the northern Lost River fault zone and show that predecessors to the 1983 rupture have passed unimpeded through the Willow Creek Hills. Our work demonstrates that normal faults are capable of producing variable spatial-temporal patterns of rupture that, together with comparisons of fault geometry and historical rupture length, improve our understanding of fault segmentation and help inform models of earthquake rupture probability.

Idaho↗