Geology Reports⌕ Search

Geology topics

Ryan C. Burner

Publications and source records attributed to Ryan C. Burner.

18 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Blanchard's cricket frogs (Acris blanchardi) have re-expanded northward since mid-2000s: Landscape predictors of occupancy

Blanchard's Cricket Frogs ( Acris blanchardi ) declined along their northern range edge in the upper Midwest in the mid-to late 1900s. The causes of these declines remain poorly understood, as does the current status of this species and their habitat requirements. In 2024, we revisited more than 300 locations previously sampled between 2003 and 2008 along this range edge in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois. We conducted roadside anuran call surveys at each site and extracted land cover information from the National Land Cover Database and a global stream layer. We developed a multi-species occupancy model, which included imperfect detection, species traits, and species associations, to test for changes in occupancy through time and determine whether environmental characteristics were associated with cricket frog presence. Blanchard's Cricket Frogs occupied more sites and occurred farther north in 2024 relative to the mid-2000s, suggesting a partial recolonization in the zone of previous decline. Forest, croplands, and latitude were negatively associated with cricket frog occupancy, whereas wetlands, river size, and development did not have strongly supported effects. Species associations implied that wetland permanence could have been an important determinant of occupancy, but we did not have this covariate information for many of our sites due to private ownership of surrounding lands. Causes of earlier declines remain largely unknown, and many previously occupied regions apparently remain devoid of cricket frogs. However, some populations have been expanding northward over the past two decades in the upper Midwest.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2026

Incorporating location uncertainty improves inference with stop-level North American Breeding Bird Survey data

Ecological models should account for uncertainty to be most effective and useful. Yet, uncertainty from model covariates—unlike that from other sources, such as sampling error or process variability—is seldom explicitly incorporated. This can cause underestimates of uncertainty to cascade through model parameter estimates, predictions, and downstream uses. Burner et al. proposed a method for quantifying uncertainty in covariates and incorporating it into models using informative Bayesian priors. This method was applied to stop-level Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) analyses, where land cover uncertainty at each stop arises from substantial stop location uncertainty. A limited validation of model-estimated land cover, using stops with known locations, indicated the method’s potential effectiveness, but it was not rigorously evaluated. We conduct a robust simulation-based test, generating stop locations, extracting land cover, and simulating bird communities across 210 BBS routes in the upper Midwest. We compare 3 models: a “known” model with true land cover, a “naive” model assuming consistent 800-m stop spacing, and a “full” model using informative priors to estimate land cover. Species parameter estimates and predicted prevalence patterns across gradients in land cover from the full model approached those of the known model and were substantially closer to the true values used in simulations relative to those from the naive model. Naive model parameters were more biased relative to the other models, and credible intervals of predicted species prevalence rarely included the true simulated values. The full model also produced land cover covariate estimates closer to true simulation values relative to the mean informative priors. Our results show that, for the BBS, informative priors enable more accurate stop-level analyses despite location uncertainty. In contrast, naive models that ignore this uncertainty yield poor inferences. More broadly, we demonstrate empirically the utility of informative priors to account for covariate uncertainty in ecological models.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconson↗
USGS2025

Trends in richness and occupancy of Ugandan birds and relation to local tree cover

Changes in vegetation cover are occurring across sub-Saharan Africa and can have substantial effects on ecological communities, but limited data make understanding status and trends difficult for many taxa. We surveyed birds for several decades across Uganda using point counts. Using time-to-detection analysis in a trait-informed Bayesian multi-species occupancy framework, we model bird species richness as a function of year and local tree cover across 28 sites. We test for trends in richness and occupancy, and for the relationship between these and local and landscape-scale tree cover. Species richness increased at 75% of sites through the study period, and generalist bird species were most likely to be increasing in occupancy. Forest specialist bird species, and to a lesser extent generalists, responded positively to tree cover. Woody cover is changing across Uganda, with declines most pronounced in areas with the highest tree cover. This is likely to be causing declines in forest specialist species while favouring generalists. When tree cover decline is caused by conversion to croplands, rather than transitions to grasslands, grassland specialists are unlikely to benefit. Effects of climate and land use change and population pressure are likely to continue to alter woody plant cover and thus affect East African bird communities.

African Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2025

U.S. national park units as breeding bird habitat: A comparison of species prevalence and land cover across the midwestern and central United States

The value of national parks as bird habitat depends not only on local conditions within the parks, but also on the landscape habitat matrices in which they are located. However, the influences of local and landscape habitat matrices on birds vary by species and have not been quantified. Similarly, the trends of land cover types through time have not been systematically quantified for Midwest Region national parks and the landscapes around them, despite evidence of ongoing habitat loss exacerbated by climate change and human population growth. Managers and policy makers can use this information to understand and sustain the contribution of parks to our Nation’s avifauna. We developed models using North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data collected on routes from across the central United States. The models were used to predict occupancy of bird species of concern in 32 national park units across nine Bird Conservation Regions in the Midwest based on land cover in and around those parks. We then compared these predictions with data collected through National Park Service (NPS) bird surveys at each park to determine if bird species of concern were more or less prevalent than expected. In each park, the mean difference between observed species detections and mean predicted detections indicates that most species are less frequently detected in the parks than predicted. However, when the range of uncertainty of predictions is considered, only 21% of park-bird combinations showed strong evidence (95%) of differing from expectation. Of these, species were less common than expected in the park in all but two cases. These results indicate that some bird species of concern occupy sites in Midwest Region national park units at a rate roughly comparable to sites with similar land cover in the Bird Conservation Region (BCR) in which they occur. However, for one in five species-park combinations, parks appear to be less occupied than comparable sites elsewhere.

Midwest region↗
USGS2025

Workshop: Nature-based solutions to ecological and economic problems caused by extreme precipitation events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Future climate conditions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin are projected to include many more extreme precipitation events. These intense periods of rain can lead to flooding of the Mississippi River itself, as well the small streams and rivers that feed it. This flooding presents a challenge for local communities, farmers, small businesses, river users, and the ecosystems and wildlife in the area. To reduce the damage done by these extreme rainfall events, ‘natural solutions’ are often helpful. This might include preserving forests and grasslands to absorb rainwater before it arrives at streams or restoring wetlands to slow and clean runoff water. For river and natural resource managers to adapt to future climate by using these natural solutions, however, they require accurate information about the projected increase in extreme rainfall events and the effectiveness and costs of a variety of solutions. To provide this information, researchers must understand the decisions that managers are making and the challenges they face. In this project, researchers will host a workshop to facilitate knowledge sharing between natural resource managers, climate modelers, and scientists studying natural solutions. Participants will discuss climate projections related to extreme precipitation events in the region, as well as the management implications and decision-making challenges associated with these events. These conversations will cultivate collaborative relationships between managers and researchers to address critical knowledge gaps and improve future management efforts in the Upper Mississippi River Basin.

Upper Mississippi River basin↗
USGS2024

Informative priors can account for location uncertainty in stop-level analyses of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), allowing fine-scale ecological analyses

Ecological inferences are often based on the locations at which species are present, but many species records have substantial uncertainty in spatial metadata, limiting their utility for fine-scale analyses. This is especially prevalent in historical records such as museum specimens, and in some citizen-science data. For example, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has 55+ years of bird data from regular transects (“routes”) across the continent but was not designed to capture the spatial component of point count events, limiting analyses of species-habitat relationships for which it would otherwise be well suited. We present a new methodology for quantifying location uncertainty in BBS records using digitized estimated stop locations, deriving the corresponding environmental covariate uncertainty distributions, and incorporating this information into hierarchical species distribution models using informative Bayesian priors. This approach allows for estimation of species–environment relationships in a way that fully accounts for underlying spatial uncertainty. We quantify stop-location uncertainty in BBS data across the central United States, model bird–land cover relationships in the upper Midwest, and validate our method by comparing posterior land cover estimates to known covariate values for a subset of GPS-digitized stop locations. We provide code for implementing this method in R. Posterior land cover estimates (forest, grass/hay, and developed land cover), based on our informative priors, were highly correlated with known land cover values from GPS-digitized stop locations. Our approach thus makes it possible to responsibly leverage large historic and citizen science databases, such as the BBS, for fine-scale ecological analyses.

Ornithological Applications↗
USGS2024

Forest age is a primary trait filter for saproxylic beetles in the southeastern United States

Many forests throughout the world consist of regenerating mature stands. Although these forests differ in many respects from old-growth (with a history of minimal human disturbance), they typically develop similar structural attributes over time. As a result, older mature forests may be of particular conservation value if they contain resources and microhabitats benefitting saproxylic (deadwood dependent) species. Species’ response to forest age may be driven by traits that relate to ecological functions or habitat preferences, such that species with less compatible traits for a local forest environment are “filtered” out. Thus, forest age may influence species’ distributions and the trait composition of assembled communities.

Georgia↗
USGS2023

Saproxylic beetles' morphological traits and higher trophic guilds indicate boreal forest naturalness

Forests contribute to numerous ecosystem functions and services and contain a large proportion of terrestrial biodiversity, but they are being negatively impaced by anthropogenic activities. Forests that have never been clear-cut and have old growth characteristics, termed “near-natural,” often harbor different and richer species assemblages than managed forests. Alternative management strategies may be able to balance the needs of biodiversity with the demands of forestry, but evaluation efforts are limited by the challenges of measuring biodiversity. Species richness is frequently used as a simple measure of biodiversity, but research indicates that it may not adequately capture community-level changes. Alternatively, trait-based measures of biodiversity may prove to be useful, but research is lacking. In this paper, we use a large dataset that includes 339 obligate saproxylic beetle species collected over a decade in the boreal region throughout southern Norway to: (1) establish if there is a difference in beetle community composition between near-natural and managed forests; and (2) determine which measures of beetle biodiversity best indicate forest naturalness. We arranged the sites in an ordination space and tested for differences in community composition between these forest types. We also tested different measures of biodiversity to determine which were the most predictive of forest naturalness. We found a clear difference in community composition between near-natural and managed forests. Additionally, three measures of biodiversity were most predictive of forest naturalness: proportional abundance of predators, community weighted mean (CWM) of wing length, and CWM of body roundness. The probability that a forest was near-natural increased with the proportional abundance of predators but decreased with CWM wing length and body roundness. Although species richness was higher in near-natural forests, the effect was not significant. Overall, our findings underscore the conservation value of near-natural forests and highlight the potential of several measures of biodiversity for determining forest quality.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2023

Diversification of forest management can mitigate wind damage risk and maintain biodiversity

Mitigating future forest risks, safeguarding timber revenues and improving biodiversity are key considerations for current boreal forest management. Alternatives to rotation forestry likely have an important role, but how they will perform under a changing climate remains unclear. We used a boreal forest growth simulator to explore how variations on traditional clear-cutting, in rotation length, thinning intensity, and increasing number of remaining trees after final harvest (green tree retention), and on extent of continuous cover forestry will affect stand-level probability of wind damage, timber production, deadwood volume, and habitats for forest species. We used business-as-usual rotation forestry as a baseline and compared alternative management adaptations under the reference and two climate change scenarios. Climate change increased overall timber production and had lower impacts on biodiversity compared to management adaptations. Shortening the rotation length reduced the probability of wind damage compared to business-as-usual, but also decreased both deadwood volume and suitable habitats for our focal species. Continuous cover forestry, and management with refraining from thinnings, and extension of rotation length represent complementary approaches benefiting biodiversity, with respective effects of improving timber revenues, reducing wind damage risk, and benefiting old-growth forest structures. However, extensive application of rotation length shortening to mitigate wind damage risk may be detrimental for forest biodiversity. To safeguard forest biodiversity over the landscape, shortening of the rotation length could be complemented with widespread application of regimes promoting old-growth forest structures.

European Journal of Forest Research↗
USGS2023

Marginal value analysis reveals shifting importance of migration habitat for waterfowl under a changing climate

Migratory waterfowl are an important resource for consumptive and non-consumptive users alike and provide tremendous economic value in North America. These birds rely on a complex matrix of public and private land for forage and roosting during migration and wintering periods, and substantial conservation effort focuses on increasing the amount and quality of target habitat. Yet, the value of habitat is a function not only of a site's resources but also of its geographic position and weather. To quantify this value, we used a continental-scale energetics-based model of daily dabbling duck movement to assess the marginal value of lands across the contiguous United States during the non-breeding period (September to May). We examined effects of eliminating each habitat node (32 × 32 km) in both a particularly cold and a particularly warm winter, asking which nodes had the largest effect on survival. The marginal value of habitat nodes for migrating dabbling ducks was a function of forage and roosting habitat but, more importantly, of geography (especially latitude and region). Irrespective of weather, nodes in the Southeast, central East Coast, and California made the largest positive contributions to survival. Conversely, nodes in the Midwest, Northeast, Florida, and the Pacific Northwest had consistent negative effects. Effects (positive and negative) of more northerly nodes occurred in late fall or early spring when climate was often severe and was most variable. Importance and effects of many nodes varied considerably between a cold and a warm winter. Much of the Midwest and central Great Plains benefited duck survival in a warm winter, and projected future warming may improve the value of lands in these regions, including many National Wildlife Refuges, for migrating dabbling ducks. Our results highlight the geographic variability in habitat value, as well as shifts that may occur in these values due to climate change.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2023

Alternative measures of trait–niche relationships: A test on dispersal traits in saproxylic beetles

Functional trait approaches are common in ecology, but a lack of clear hypotheses on how traits relate to environmental gradients (i.e., trait–niche relationships) often makes uncovering mechanisms difficult. Furthermore, measures of community functional structure differ in their implications, yet inferences are seldom compared among metrics. Community-weighted mean trait values (CWMs), a common measure, are largely driven by the most common species and thus do not reflect community-wide trait–niche relationships per se. Alternatively, trait–niche relationships can be estimated across a larger group of species using hierarchical joint species distribution models (JSDMs), quantified by a parameter Γ. We investigated how inferences about trait–niche relationships are affected by the choice of metric. Using deadwood-dependent (saproxylic) beetles in fragmented Finnish forests, we followed a protocol for investigating trait–niche relationships by (1) identifying environmental filters (climate, forest age, and deadwood volume), (2) relating these to an ecological function (dispersal ability), and (3) identifying traits related to this function (wing morphology). We tested 18 hypothesized dispersal relationships using both CWM and Γ estimates across these environmental gradients. CWMs were more likely than Γ to show support for trait–niche relationships. Up to 13% of species' realized niches were explained by dispersal traits, but the directions of effects were consistent with fewer than 11%–39% of our 18 trait–niche hypotheses (depending on the metric used). This highlights the difficulty in connecting morphological traits and ecological functions in insects, despite the clear conceptual link between landscape connectivity and flight-related traits. Caution is thus warranted in hypothesis development, particularly where apparent trait–function links are less clear. Inferences differ when CWMs versus Γ estimates are used, necessitating the choice of a metric that reflects study questions. CWMs help explain the effects of environmental gradients on community trait composition, whereas the effects of traits on species' niches are better estimated using hierarchical JSDMs.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2023

BioLake: A first assessment of lake temperature-derived bioclimatic predictors for aquatic invasive species

Aquatic invasive species (AIS) present major ecological and economic challenges globally, endangering ecosystems and human livelihoods. Managers and policy makers thus need tools to predict invasion risk and prioritize species and areas of concern, and they often use native range climate matching to determine whether a species could persist in a new location. However, climate matching for AIS often relies on air temperature rather than water temperature due to a lack of global water temperature data layers, and predictive power of models is seldom evaluated. We developed 12 global lake (water) temperature-derived “BioLake” bioclimatic layers for distribution modeling of aquatic species and compared “climatch” climate matching predictions (from climatchR package) from BioLake with those based on BioClim temperature layers and with a null model. We did this for 73 established AIS in the United States, training the models on their ranges outside of the United States and Canada. Models using either set of climate layers outperformed the null expectation by a similar (but modest) amount on average, but some species were occasionally found in locations with low climatch scores. Mean US climatch scores were higher for most species when using air temperature. Including additional climate layers in models reduced mean climatch scores, indicating that commonly used climatch score thresholds are not absolute but can be context specific and may require calibration based upon climate data used. Although finer resolution global lake temperature data would likely improve predictions, our BioLake layers provide a starting point for aquatic species distribution modeling. Climate matching was most effective for some species that originated at low latitudes or had small ranges. Climatch scores remain useful but limited for predicting AIS risk, perhaps because current ranges seldom fully reflect climatic tolerances (fundamental niches). Managers could consider climate matching as one of a suite of tools that can be used in AIS prioritization.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2023

Body size predicts the rate of contemporary morphological change in birds

Across the globe, bird morphology is changing rapidly. Although trajectories of change are frequently consistent across studies, rates of change among species vary in magnitude—a phenomenon that remains unexplained. By analyzing two independently collected datasets demonstrating consistent changes in morphology in 129 species, we show that rates of phenotypic change are negatively correlated with body size—that is, smaller birds are changing faster. Why smaller-bodied species are changing faster is unknown, but we found little support for the hypothesis that generation length explains variation in the rates of change. Rather, body size appears to be a primary mediator of species’ phenotypic responses to contemporary climatic change and should be considered when testing hypotheses about the drivers of change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (P↗
USGS2022

High-resolution 3D forest structure explains ecomorphological trait variation in assemblages of saproxylic beetles

Climate, topography and the 3D structure of forests are major drivers affecting local species communities. However, little is known about how the specific functional traits of saproxylic (wood-living) beetles, involved in the recycling of wood, might be affected by those environmental characteristics. Here, we combine ecological and morphological traits available for saproxylic beetles and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data in Bayesian trait-based joint species distribution models to study how traits drive the distributions of more than 230 species in temperate forests of Europe. We found that elevation (as a proxy for temperature and precipitation) and the proportion of conifers played important roles in species occurrences while variables related to habitat heterogeneity and forest complexity were less relevant. Furthermore, we showed that local communities were shaped by environmental variation primarily through their ecological traits whereas morphological traits were involved only marginally. As predicted, ecological traits influenced species' responses to forest structure, and to other environmental variation, with canopy niche, wood decay niche and host preference as the most important ecological traits. Conversely, no links between morphological traits and environmental characteristics were observed. Both models, however, revealed strong phylogenetic signal in species' response to environmental characteristics. These findings imply that alterations of climate and tree species composition have the potential to alter saproxylic beetle communities in temperate forests. Additionally, ecological traits help explain species' responses to environmental characteristics and thus should prove useful in predicting their responses to future change. It remains challenging, however, to link simple morphological traits to species' complex ecological niches.

Functional Ecology↗
USGS2020

Biotic interactions help explain variation in elevational range limits of birds among Bornean mountains

Aim Physiological tolerances and biotic interactions along habitat gradients are thought to influence species occurrence. Distributional differences caused by such forces are particularly noticeable on tropical mountains, where high species turnover along elevational gradients occurs over relatively short distances and elevational distributions of particular species can shift among mountains. Such shifts are interpreted as evidence of the importance of spatial variation in interspecific competition and habitat or climatic gradients. To assess the relative importance of competition and compression of habitat and climatic zones in setting range limits, we examined differences in elevational ranges of forest bird species among four Bornean mountains with distinct features. Location Bornean mountains Kinabalu, Mulu, Pueh and Topap Oso. Taxon Rain forest bird communities along elevational gradients. Methods We surveyed the elevational ranges of rain forest birds on four mountains in Borneo to test which environmental variables—habitat zone compression or presence of likely competitors—best predicted differences in elevational ranges of species among mountains. For this purpose, we used two complementary tests: a comparison of elevational range limits between pairs of mountains, and linear mixed models with naïve occupancy as the response variable. Results We found that lowland species occur higher in elevation on two small mountains compared to Mt. Mulu. This result is inconsistent with the expectation that distributions of habitats are elevationally compressed on small mountains, but is consistent with the hypothesis that a reduction in competition (likely diffuse) on short mountains, which largely lack montane specialist species, allows lowland species to occur higher in elevation. The relative influence of competition changes with elevation, and the correlation between lower range limits of montane species and the distribution of their competitors was weaker than in lowland species. Main conclusions These findings provide support for the importance of biotic interactions in setting elevational range limits of tropical bird species, although abiotic gradients explain the majority of distribution patterns. Thus, models predicting range shifts under climate change scenarios must include not only climatic variables, as is currently most common, but also information on potentially resulting changes in species interactions, especially for lowland species.

Borneo↗