Geology topics
Publications and source records attributed to Ronald R. Charpentier.
Using a probabilistic geology-based methodology, a team of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists recently assessed the remaining recoverable oil in 10 oil fields of the Los Angeles Basin in southern California. The results of the assessment suggest that between 1.4 and 5.6 billion barrels of additional oil could be recovered from those fields with existing technology.
Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log–geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log–geometric methods, generally stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger than those of the log–geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters.
The USGS has assessed undiscovered petroleum resources in the Arctic through geological mapping, basin analysis and quantitative assessment. The new map compilation provided the base from which geologists subdivided the Arctic for burial history modelling and quantitative assessment. The CARA was a probabilistic, geologically based study that used existing USGS methodology, modified somewhat for the circumstances of the Arctic. The assessment relied heavily on analogue modelling, with numerical input as lognormal distributions of sizes and numbers of undiscovered accumulations. Probabilistic results for individual assessment units were statistically aggregated taking geological dependencies into account. Fourteen papers in this Geological Society volume present summaries of various aspects of the CARA.
The purpose of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Oil and Gas Assessment is to develop geology-based hypotheses regarding the potential for additions to oil and gas reserves in priority areas of the United States, focusing on the distribution, quantity, and availability of oil and natural gas resources. The USGS has completed an assessment of the undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources in western Oregon and Washington (USGS Western Oregon and Washington Province 5004). The province includes all of Oregon and Washington north of the Klamath Mountains and west of the crest of the Cascade Range, and extends offshore to the 3-mi limit of State waters on the west and to the International Boundary in the Straits of Juan de Fuca and Canada on the north. It measures about 450 mi north-south and 50 to 160 mi east-west, encompassing more than 51,000 mi2. The assessment of the Western Oregon and Washington Province is geology based and used the total petroleum system (TPS) concept. The geologic elements of a TPS include hydrocarbon source rocks (source rock maturation and hydrocarbon generation and migration), reservoir rocks (quality and distribution), and traps for hydrocarbon accumulation. Using these geologic criteria, two conventional and one unconventional (continuous) total petroleum systems were defined, with one assessment unit (AU) in each TPS: (1) the Cretaceous-Tertiary Composite TPS and the Western Oregon and Washington Conventional Gas AU, (2) the Tertiary Marine TPS and the Tertiary-Marine Gas AU, and (3) the Tertiary Coalbed Gas TPS and the Eocene Coalbed Gas AU, in which a cell-based methodology was used to estimate coalbed-gas resources.
The U.S. Geological Survey, using a geoscience-based assessment methodology, estimated mean technically-recoverable undiscovered continuous and conventional resources that total 495 million barrels of oil, 27.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 410 million barrels of natural gas liquids in the Anadarko Basin Province; this assessment includes the Las Animas arch area of southeastern Colorado. The province is at a mature stage of exploration and development for conventional resources. Mean undiscovered continuous resources are estimated at 79 percent of oil, 90 percent of natural gas, and 81 percent of natural gas liquids in the province.
Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated means of 147.4 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered natural gas, 2.4 billion barrels of undiscovered oil, and 2.96 billion barrels of undiscovered natural gas liquids in Jurassic and Cretaceous strata in onshore lands and State waters of the Gulf Coast.
The Sud Province located in north-central Africa recently was assessed for undiscovered, technically recoverable oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids resources as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) World Oil and Gas Assessment. Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the USGS estimated mean volumes of 7.31 billion barrels of oil, 13.42 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 353 million barrels of natural gas liquids.
The West African Coastal Province along the west African coastline recently was assessed for undiscovered, technically recoverable oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids resources as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's USGS World Oil and Gas Assessment. Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the USGS estimated mean volumes of 3.2 billion barrels of oil, 23.63 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 721 million barrels of natural gas liquids.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed a new assessment of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources in the Cook Inlet region of south-central Alaska. Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the USGS estimates that mean undiscovered volumes of nearly 600 million barrels of oil, about 19 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 46 million barrels of natural gas liquids remain to be found in this area.
Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated a mean undiscovered natural gas resource of 84,198 billion cubic feet and a mean undiscovered natural gas liquids resource of 3,379 million barrels in the Devonian Marcellus Shale within the Appalachian Basin Province. All this resource occurs in continuous accumulations. In 2011, the USGS completed an assessment of the undiscovered oil and gas potential of the Devonian Marcellus Shale within the Appalachian Basin Province of the eastern United States. The Appalachian Basin Province includes parts of Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. The assessment of the Marcellus Shale is based on the geologic elements of this formation's total petroleum system (TPS) as recognized in the characteristics of the TPS as a petroleum source rock (source rock richness, thermal maturation, petroleum generation, and migration) as well as a reservoir rock (stratigraphic position and content and petrophysical properties). Together, these components confirm the Marcellus Shale as a continuous petroleum accumulation. Using the geologic framework, the USGS defined one TPS and three assessment units (AUs) within this TPS and quantitatively estimated the undiscovered oil and gas resources within the three AUs. For the purposes of this assessment, the Marcellus Shale is considered to be that Middle Devonian interval that consists primarily of shale and lesser amounts of bentonite, limestone, and siltstone occurring between the underlying Middle Devonian Onondaga Limestone (or its stratigraphic equivalents, the Needmore Shale and Huntersville Chert) and the overlying Middle Devonian Mahantango Formation (or its stratigraphic equivalents, the upper Millboro Shale and middle Hamilton Group).
Using a performance-based geological assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean volumes of 13.4 trillion cubic feet of potential technically recoverable shale gas and 0.5 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil resources in the Norte Basin of Uruguay.
Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated volumes of undiscovered, technically recoverable, conventional petroleum resources for the North Sakhalin Basin Province of Russia. The mean volumes were estimated at 5.3 billion barrels of crude oil, 43.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 0.8 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a new quantitative methodology for assessing resources in continuous (unconventional) petroleum deposits. Continuous petroleum resources include shale gas, coalbed gas, and other oil and gas deposits in low-permeability ("tight") reservoirs. The methodology is based on an approach combining geologic understanding with well productivities. The methodology is probabilistic, with both input and output variables as probability distributions, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the estimates. The new methodology is an improvement of previous USGS methodologies in that it better accommodates the uncertainties in undrilled or minimally drilled deposits that must be assessed using analogs. The publication is a collection of PowerPoint slides with accompanying comments.
Reserve growth is defined as the estimated increases in quantities of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids that have the potential to be added to remaining reserves in discovered accumulations through extension, revision, improved recovery efficiency, and additions of new pools or reservoirs. A new U.S. Geological Survey method was developed to assess the reserve-growth potential of technically recoverable crude oil and natural gas to be added to reserves under proven technology currently in practice within the trend or play, or which reasonably can be extrapolated from geologically similar trends or plays. This method currently is in use to assess potential additions to reserves in discovered fields of the United States. The new approach involves (1) individual analysis of selected large accumulations that contribute most to reserve growth, and (2) conventional statistical modeling of reserve growth in remaining accumulations. This report will focus on the individual accumulation analysis. In the past, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated reserve growth by statistical methods using historical recoverable-quantity data. Those statistical methods were based on growth rates averaged by the number of years since accumulation discovery. Accumulations in mature petroleum provinces with volumetrically significant reserve growth, however, bias statistical models of the data; therefore, accumulations with significant reserve growth are best analyzed separately from those with less significant reserve growth. Large (greater than 500 million barrels) and older (with respect to year of discovery) oil accumulations increase in size at greater rates late in their development history in contrast to more recently discovered accumulations that achieve most growth early in their development history. Such differences greatly affect the statistical methods commonly used to forecast reserve growth. The individual accumulation-analysis method involves estimating the in-place petroleum quantity and its uncertainty, as well as the estimated (forecasted) recoverability and its respective uncertainty. These variables are assigned probabilistic distributions and are combined statistically to provide probabilistic estimates of ultimate recoverable quantities. Cumulative production and remaining reserves are then subtracted from the estimated ultimate recoverable quantities to provide potential reserve growth. In practice, results of the two methods are aggregated to various scales, the highest of which includes an entire country or the world total. The aggregated results are reported along with the statistically appropriate uncertainties.
The U.S. Geological Survey procedure for the estimation of the general form of the parent distribution requires that the parameters of the log-geometric distribution be calculated and analyzed for the sensitivity of these parameters to different conditions. In this study, we derive the shape factor of a log-geometric distribution from the ratio of frequencies between adjacent bins. The shape factor has a log straight-line relationship with the ratio of frequencies. Additionally, the calculation equations of a ratio of the mean size to the lower size-class boundary are deduced. For a specific log-geometric distribution, we find that the ratio of the mean size to the lower size-class boundary is the same. We apply our analysis to simulations based on oil and gas pool distributions from four petroleum systems of Alberta, Canada and four generated distributions. Each petroleum system in Alberta has a different shape factor. Generally, the shape factors in the four petroleum systems stabilize with the increase of discovered pool numbers. For a log-geometric distribution, the shape factor becomes stable when discovered pool numbers exceed 50 and the shape factor is influenced by the exploration efficiency when the exploration efficiency is less than 1. The simulation results show that calculated shape factors increase with those of the parent distributions, and undiscovered oil and gas resources estimated through the log-geometric distribution extrapolation are smaller than the actual values. ?? 2010 International Association for Mathematical Geology.
This report presents an improved methodology for estimating volumes of continuous (unconventional) oil and gas resources within the United States and around the world. The methodology is based on previously developed U.S. Geological Survey methodologies that rely on well-scale production data. Improvements were made primarily to how the uncertainty about estimated ultimate recoveries is incorporated in the estimates. This is particularly important when assessing areas with sparse or no production data, because the new methodology allows better use of analog data from areas with significant discovery histories.
Four geologic provinces located along the northwest and west-central coast of Africa recently were assessed for undiscovered oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids resources as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) World Oil and Gas Assessment. Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the USGS estimated mean volumes of 71.7 billion barrels of oil, 187.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 10.9 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimated means of 1.8 billion barrels of recoverable oil, 223 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas, and 6 billion barrels of natural gas liquids in the Nile Delta Basin Province using a geology-based assessment methodology.