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Roger P. Denlinger

Publications and source records attributed to Roger P. Denlinger.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Real-time lava flow forecasting during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption response

On November 27, 2022, Mauna Loa (Hawai‘i) erupted for the first time in 38 years, initially producing lava flows that covered the floor of its summit caldera, Moku‘āweoweo. Over the first 12 h following the summit eruption, four main fissures opened on Mauna Loa’s Northeast Rift Zone, with “fissure 3” quickly becoming the dominant source of lava flows. For the next 12 days, fissure 3 produced a 19-km-long lava flow to the north, crossing the Mauna Loa Weather Observatory access road and coming within 2.8 km of inundating the Daniel K. Inouye Highway (Saddle Road). Within 40 min of fissure 3 opening, inundation modeling efforts had begun. For the duration of the eruption, the computational fluid dynamics model Lava2d was run in real time, using flow front locations and other field observations to make sequential forecast improvements, eventually producing a set of models which accurately predicted the routing and arrival times of lava from fissure 3. These models were used to inform timing estimates of possible future inundation of the Saddle Road. As the eruption progressed, almost 4000 Lava2d models were made using high-performance computing resources, providing critical information on uncertainty in multi-week forecasts. To our knowledge, this was the first ever real-time physics-based ensemble lava flow modeling and forecasting effort. Here, we present a chronology of these real-time efforts, focusing on the successes and limitations of this approach.

Hawaii

Pulsing in the Ahu‘ailaʻau pond-spillway system during the 2018 Kilauea Eruption: A dynamical systems perspective

During the 2018 K ī "> ī ī lauea lower East Rift Zone eruption, lava from 24 fissures inundated more than 8000 acres of land, destroying more than 700 structures over three months. Eruptive activity eventually focused at a single vent characterized by a continuously fed lava pond that was drained by a narrow spillway into a much wider, slower channelized flow. The spillway exhibited intervals of ‘pulsing’ behaviour in which the lava depth and velocity were observed to oscillate on time scales of several minutes. At the time, this was attributed to variations in vesiculation originating at depth. Here, we construct a toy fluid dynamical model of the pond–spillway system, and present an alternative hypothesis in which pulsing is generated at the surface, within this system. We posit that the appearance of pulsing is due to a supercritical Hopf bifurcation driven by an increase in the Reynolds number. Asymptotics for the limit cycle near the bifurcation point are derived with averaging methods and compare favourably with the cycle periodicity. Because oscillations in the pond were not observable directly due to the elevation of the cone rim and an obscuring volcanic plume, we model the observations using a spatially averaged Saint-Venant model of the spillway forced by the pond oscillator. The predicted spillway cycle periodicity and waveforms compare favourably with observations made during the eruption. The unusually well-documented nature of this eruption enables estimation of the viscosity of the erupting lava.

Hawaii

Density structure of Kilauea volcano: Implications for magma storage and transport

A Bayesian linear regression to determine the bias in the Nafe–Drake relationship between compressional velocity and density provides an improved model for the density structure of Kīlauea volcano, Hawaiʻi. In previous work, we combined the results of seismic tomography with the Nafe–Drake relationship between compressional velocity and density to explain the large values of gravity disturbances overlying the summits and rift zones of the island's volcanoes. These results were used to determine mechanisms for gravitational instability of the island flanks. Here, we use laboratory measurements of the relationship of velocity and density for a wide range of Hawaiʻi island rocks as a prior in a Bayesian regression, with seismic tomography, to refine the 3-D density structure for Kīlauea volcano. This refined structure shows dense bodies (3220 kg m −3 ) between 5 and 8 km below sea level that underly regions of magma storage, found from geodetic and geophysical studies, beneath the summit and East Rift Zone of Kīlauea volcano. Above these bodies, density isosurfaces surround and cradle sources of pressure change determined from geodetic models, both at the summit and along the East Rift Zone. Continued subsidence of the summit following the 2018 eruption is aligned with a bowl-shaped density structure, formed primarily by density isosurfaces between 2800 and 2900 kg m −3 at 4–6 km depth. These surfaces underly the ∼3 km depth at which dyke injection initiates, are largely aseismic, and from their density values are inferred to contain high concentrations of olivine. Taken together, these density structures are consistent with an olivine-rich mush with variable porosity that increases in density with depth and provides a mechanism to form olivine cumulates both at the summit and along the rift zones. This structural framework for Kīlauea volcano is consistent with melt and mush transport occurring over a large range of depths to accommodate the growth and spreading of the volcano.

Hawaii

Density structure of the island of Hawai’i and the implications for gravity-driven motion of the south flank of Kilauea volcano

The discovery that large landslides dissected the Hawaiian islands, scattering debris over thousands of square kilometers of seafloor, changed our ideas of island growth and evolution. The evidence is consistent with catastrophic flank collapse during volcano growth, and draws our focus to the currently active island of Hawai’i, the volcanoes Mauna Loa and Kīlauea, and particularly to the actively-mobile south flank of Kīlauea volcano. Both the weight distribution and pressure within an extensive magma system are perceived to affect stability, but the role of gravitational body forces and island density distribution has not been quantitatively assessed. We use seismic velocities derived from tomography to model the density distribution of the island of Hawai’i and find that olivine-rich melts and rocks in Hawaiian volcanoes result in a close association of seismic velocity and density. The resultant density model reproduces more than 95% of the observed gravity disturbance signal wherever tomographic control exists and provides a basis for evaluating the body forces from gravity. We also find that if the decollement is weak, then gravitational body forces can produce slip that explains most seismo-tectonic and volcano-tectonic structural features of Kīlauea volcano. Where the decollement is in a state of incipient slip from this weight distribution, fluctuations in magma pressure can trigger accelerated slip on the decollement. Yet this is only true of the south flank of Kīlauea volcano. Though weight and magma distributions produce significant forces driving the west flank of Mauna Loa seaward, this flank is stable. Stability over the last decade indicates a strong foundation beneath the west flank of Mauna Loa, perhaps as a result of large debris avalanches that occurred there that scraped clay-rich sediments off of the decollement.

Hawaii

Evolution of faulting induced by deep fluid injection, Paradox Valley, Colorado

High‐pressure fluid injection into a subhorizontal confined aquifer at 4.3–4.6 km depth induced > 7000 "> > 7000 >7000 earthquakes between 1991 and 2012 within once seismically quiescent Paradox Valley in Colorado, with magnitudes up to M w "> M w Mw 3.9. Earthquake hypocenters expanded laterally away from the well with time, defining the margins of the aquifer pressurized by injection at the well. Within 5 km of the well, alignment of earthquake hypocenters defines strikes of nine vertical fault zones. Previous studies show that these fault zones predate injection, producing left‐stepping offsets in the normal faults of the Wray‐Mesa fault system that cradles Paradox Valley. Hypocenters, rakes, and strikes of 2041 well‐constrained focal mechanisms show that most injection‐related earthquakes occur where these vertical faults intersect the pressurized aquifer. Well‐defined focal mechanisms show that this induced seismicity consists of Riedel shear faults at acute angles to the strikes of these fault zones. These small faults develop an anastomosing fault structure of focal planes along each planar fault zone, as fluid injection continues, even as their hypocenters define a single planar fault zone. Failure conditions at each hypocenter are found using a fully coupled poroelastic analysis of stress induced by fluid injection, and this analysis indicates a minimum Coulomb failure condition of 0.1 MPa. This failure condition is primarily a result of aquifer pore‐fluid pressurization, as almost all well‐located seismicity is within the pressurized aquifer. Reducing the rate of injection and frequent well shutdowns in the second decade nearly eliminated induced seismicity, except very near the well where gradients in pressurization are the largest. Despite these decreases in failure conditions and seismicity, some fault zones continued to produce earthquakes larger than M 3 as injection continued.

California

The Missoula and Bonneville floods—A review of ice-age megafloods in the Columbia River basin

The Channeled Scabland of eastern Washington State, USA, brought megafloods to the scientific forefront. A 30,000-km2 landscape of coulees and cataracts carved into the region’s loess-covered basalt attests to overwhelming volumes of energetic water. The scarred landscape, garnished by huge boulder bars and far-travelled ice-rafted erratics, spurred J Harlen Bretz’s vigorously disputed flood hypothesis in the 1920s. First known as the Spokane flood, it was rebranded the Missoula flood once understood that the water came from glacial Lake Missoula, formed when the Purcell Trench lobe of the last-glacial Cordilleran ice sheet dammed the Clark Fork valley in northwestern Idaho with ice a kilometer thick. Bretz’s flood evidence in the once-remote Channeled Scabland, widely seen and elaborated by the 1950s, eventually swayed consensus for cataclysmic flooding. Missoula flood questions then turned to some that continue today: how many? when? how big? what routes? what processes? The Missoula floods passed through eastern Washington by a multitude of valleys, coulees and scabland tracts, some contemporaneously, some sequentially. Which routings and their timing depended on the positions of various lobes of the multi-pronged Cordilleran ice sheet and the erosional development of the channels themselves. The first floods mostly followed the big bend of Columbia valley looping through north-central Washington. But the south-advancing Okanogan ice lobe soon blocked that path, forming long-lasting glacial Lake Columbia in the impounded Columbia valley. Missoula floods into this lake were diverted south out of the Columbia valley and into eastern Washington coulees and scabland tracts. At least four floods entered Moses Coulee, but then as the Okanogan lobe advanced over and blocked the head of that coulee, more eastern paths took the water, including Grand Coulee and the Telford-Crab-Creek and Cheney-Palouse scabland tracts. Flood routing also depended on the erosion of the coulees. At some point, headward erosion of upper Grand Coulee lowered the divide saddle between the west-running Columbia valley and the deep and wide Grand Coulee heading southwest. Still uncertain is when this happened and the consequences with respect to the stage and extent of glacial Lake Columbia and to flood access to the other, higher, flood routes. Downstream, all flood routes converged onto Pasco Basin, flowed through Wallula Gap and the Columbia River Gorge into the Pacific Ocean, following submarine canyons and depositing sediment layers on abyssal plains. Stratigraphic studies indicate dozens—likely more than a hundred—separate Missoula floods during the last glacial period. Over the length of the flood route, backwater areas and depositional basins preserve multiple flood beds, many of which are separated by signs of time, including volcanic ash layers and soil development in subaerial environments; and varve-like beds and pelagic mud layers in lacustrine and marine settings. Evidence also comes from the glacial Lake Missoula basin, where stratigraphy indicates dozens of filling and emptying cycles. Varve counts in conjunction of radiocarbon dating and paleomagnetic secular variation show the repeated filling-and-release cycles of glacial Lake Missoula had intervals possibly as long as 100 years early in the lake’s history but diminished to just one or two years for the last few floods. This behavior accords with jökulhlaup-style floods released by subglacial drainage from a self-dumping ice-dammed lake. But not yet clear is whether such a mechanism applies to all the floods or if some emptied more cataclysmically as hypothesized by some. Radiocarbon dating of sparse organic materials remains key to defining flood chronology but has been lately bolstered by analyses of terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides and optically stimulated luminescence. Varve counts and paleomagnetic secular variation studies help to define durations and intervals represented by sequences of flood beds. The ~16 ka Mount St. Helens Set S tephra is commonly interbedded within flood deposits, enabling correlation of deposits among sites. Tephra from the 13.7–13.4 ka eruption of Glacier Peak overlies all glacial Lake Missoula and Missoula flood deposits, defining an end time. Overall conclusions are that glacial Lake Missoula was extant and producing floods for at least 3–4 ky during 20–14 ka. At least ~75 floods preceded Mount St Helens Set S, followed by 30 or more after the tephra fall. Most floods entered glacial Lake Columbia, impounded by the Okanogan lobe, for 2–5 ky between about 18.5 and 15 ka. Glacial Lake Columbia outlived Lake Missoula by >200–400 yr but may have been born later since at least one flood came down the Columbia valley before the Okanogan ice lobe blocked the Columbia valley at 18.5–18 ka. The maximum extent of the Okanogan and Purcell Trench lobes, many Missoula floods, substantial erosion of upper Grand Coulee, and the widespread tephra falls from Mount St. Helens eruptions all happened about 17–15 ka. People, in the area since 16.6–15.3 ka, almost certainly witnessed the last of the Missoula floods and later large floods from other ice-dammed lakes in the Columbia River basin. Quantitative flow analyses give peak discharge estimates and support understanding of erosional and depositional processes. The first flow assessments were simple cross-section calculations but recent assessments employ two-dimensional hydrodynamic models. The general finding is that emplacement of the maximum stage evidence requires about 20 million m3/s near the Lake Missoula outlet and about 5–15 million m3/s through Wallula Gap and downstream in the Columbia River Gorge. These hydraulic analyses raise still-unresolved questions regarding canyon erosion and possible additional water sources. The large Pleistocene Bonneville flood entered the Columbia River system from the southeast from pluvial Lake Bonneville, the Pleistocene predecessor to Great Salt Lake in the eastern Great Basin. During the last glacial, the lake basin filled, covering >50,000 km2 with 10,400 km3 of water before reaching its maximum possible stage governed by Red Rock Pass, the lowest divide separating the basin from the Snake River basin to the north. The overtopping lake rapidly incised 108–125 m into the Red Rock Pass outlet, spilling half of its total lake volume. G.K. Gilbert described the essential sequence in the 1870s, but the flood was mostly forgotten until the late 1950s when Harold Malde linked the spectacular scabland topography and bouldery “melon gravel” on the Snake River Plain to the Lake Bonneville overflow. The Bonneville flood appears to have been a singular event at about 18 ka. No evidence of multiple or pre-last-glacial spillovers has yet been found. Its total volume was about twice that of a maximum Lake Missoula flood yet its peak discharge was ~1 million m3/s, less than a tenth of the largest Missoula floods. Its comparatively simple flow path and much steadier flow make the Bonneville flood ideal for new studies of erosional and depositional processes. At least two floods seem to have passed down the Columbia valley after the last of the Missoula floods, including a large flood about ~14 ka likely from cataclysmic demise of the thinning Okanogan ice lobe dam impounding glacial Lake Columbia. Floods from earlier glacial ages left scant yet clear evidence in the Channeled Scabland and Columbia valley. But their source, timing, and magnitudes are little understood. Some deposits are paleomagnetically reversed, thus older than ~800 ka. Last-glacial floods and perhaps older ones affected the Snake River Plain, some likely sourced in lakes dammed by alpine glaciers in central Idaho.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington

Diverse cataclysmic floods from Pleistocene glacial Lake Missoula

In late Wisconsin time, the Purcell Trench lobe of the Cordilleran ice sheet dammed the Clark Fork of the Columbia River in western Montana, creating glacial Lake Missoula. During part of this epoch, the Okanogan lobe also dammed the Columbia River downstream, creating glacial Lake Columbia in northeast Washington. Repeated failure of the Purcell Trench ice dam released glacial Lake Missoula, causing dozens of catastrophic floods in eastern Washington that can be distinguished by the geologic record they left behind. These floods removed tens of meters of pale loess from dark basalt substrate, forming scars along flowpaths visible from space. Different positions of the Okanogan lobe are required for modeled Missoula floods to inundate the diverse channels that show field evidence for flooding, as shown by accurate dam-break flood modeling using a roughly 185 m digital terrain model of existing topography (with control points dynamically varied using automatic mesh refinement). The maximum extent of the Okanogan lobe, which blocked inundation of the upper Grand Coulee and the Columbia River valley, is required to flood all channels in the Telford scablands and to produce highest flood stages in Pasco Basin. Alternatively, the Columbia River valley must have been open and the upper Grand Coulee blocked to nearly match evidence for high water on Pangborn bar near Wenatchee, Washington, and to flood Quincy Basin from the west. Finally, if the Columbia River valley and upper Grand Coulee were both open, Quincy Basin would have flooded from the northeast. In all these scenarios, the discrepancy between modeled flood stages and field evidence for maximum flood stages increases in all channels downstream, from Spokane to Umatilla Basin. The pattern of discrepancies indicates that bulking of floods by loess increased flow volume across the scablands, but this alone does not explain low modeled flow stages along the Columbia River valley near Wenatchee. This latter discrepancy between modeled flood stages and field data requires either additional bulking of flow by sediment along the Columbia reach downstream of glacial Lake Columbia, or coincident dam failures of glacial Lake Columbia and glacial Lake Missoula.

Montana, Washington

Ongoing efforts to make ash-cloud model forecasts more accurate

The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland changed the rules for air travel in Europe and introduced the use of restricted fly zones based on ash-cloud concentrations calculated by dispersion models. This change prompted a sustained effort to improve the accuracy of ash-cloud model forecasts. In this paper we describe how this goal is being advanced on three fronts: (1) assessing current capabilities and establishing best practices; (2) improving the accuracy of model inputs; and (3) developing strategies to automatically compare model output with observations and adjust inputs to produce the best match. Progress has been made on all three fronts. A key lesson is that accuracy can only be quantified by comparison with reliable observations, which are often elusive. Model improvements will have to be made in tandem with new technologies to observe and measure.

Conference Paper

Volcano dome dynamics at Mount St. Helens: Deformation and intermittent subsidence monitored by seismicity and camera imagery pixel offsets

The surface deformation field measured at volcanic domes provides insights into the effects of magmatic processes, gravity- and gas-driven processes, and the development and distribution of internal dome structures. Here we study short-term dome deformation associated with earthquakes at Mount St. Helens, recorded by a permanent optical camera and seismic monitoring network. We use Digital Image Correlation (DIC) to compute the displacement field between successive images and compare the results to the occurrence and characteristics of seismic events during a 6 week period of dome growth in 2006. The results reveal that dome growth at Mount St. Helens was repeatedly interrupted by short-term meter-scale downward displacements at the dome surface, which were associated in time with low-frequency, large-magnitude seismic events followed by a tremor-like signal. The tremor was only recorded by the seismic stations closest to the dome. We find a correlation between the magnitudes of the camera-derived displacements and the spectral amplitudes of the associated tremor. We use the DIC results from two cameras and a high-resolution topographic model to derive full 3-D displacement maps, which reveals internal dome structures and the effect of the seismic activity on daily surface velocities. We postulate that the tremor is recording the gravity-driven response of the upper dome due to mechanical collapse or depressurization and fault-controlled slumping. Our results highlight the different scales and structural expressions during growth and disintegration of lava domes and the relationships between seismic and deformation signals.

Washington

Using monitoring and modeling to define the hazard posed by the reactivated Ferguson rock slide, Merced Canyon, California

Rapid onset natural disasters such as large landslides create a need for scientific information about the event, which is vital to ensuring public safety, restoring infrastructure, preventing additional damage, and resuming normal economic activity. At the same time, there is limited data available upon which to base reliable scientific responses. Monitoring movement and modeling runout are mechanisms for gaining vital data and reducing the uncertainty created about a rapid onset natural disaster. We examine the effectiveness of this approach during the 2006 Ferguson rock slide disaster, which severed California Highway 140. Even after construction of a bypass restoring normal access to the community of El Portal, CA and a major entrance to Yosemite National Park, significant scientific questions remained. The most important for the affected public and emergency service agencies was the likelihood that access would again be severed during the impending rainy season and the possibility of a landslide dam blocking flow in the Merced River. Real-time monitoring of the Ferguson rock slide yielded clear information on the continuing movement of the rock slide and its implications for emergency response actions. Similarly, simulation of runout deposits using a physically based model together with volumes and slope steepness information demonstrated the conditions necessary for a landslide dam-forming event and the possible consequences of such an event given the dimensions of potential rock slide deposits.

California

Volcanic tremor masks its seismogenic source: Results from a study of noneruptive tremor recorded at Mount St. Helens, Washington

On 2 October 2004, a significant noneruptive tremor episode occurred during the buildup to the 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens (Washington). This episode was remarkable both because no explosion followed, and because seismicity abruptly stopped following the episode. This sequence motivated us to consider a model for volcanic tremor that does not involve energetic gas release from magma but does involve movement of conduit magma through extension on its way toward the surface. We found that the tremor signal was composed entirely of Love and Rayleigh waves and that its spectral bandwidth increased and decreased with signal amplitude, with broader bandwidth signals containing both higher and lower frequencies. Our modeling results demonstrate that the forces giving rise to this tremor were largely normal to conduit walls, generating hybrid head waves along conduit walls that are coupled to internally reflected waves. Together these form a crucial part of conduit resonance, giving tremor wavefields that are largely a function of waveguide geometry and velocity. We find that the mechanism of tremor generation fundamentally masks the nature of the seismogenic source giving rise to resonance. Thus multiple models can be invoked to explain volcanic tremor, requiring that information from other sources (such as visual observations, geodesy, geology, and gas geochemistry) be used to constrain source models. With concurrent GPS and field data supporting rapid rise of magma, we infer that tremor resulted from drag of nearly solid magma along rough conduit walls as magma was forced toward the surface.

Washington

Instability of Hawaiian volcanoes

Hawaiian volcanoes build long rift zones and some of the largest volcanic edifices on Earth. For the active volcanoes on the Island of Hawai‘i, the growth of these rift zones is upward and seaward and occurs through a repetitive process of decades-long buildup of a magma-system head along the rift zones, followed by rapid large-scale displacement of the seaward flank in seconds to minutes. This large-scale flank movement, which may be rapid enough to generate a large earthquake and tsunami, always causes subsidence along the coast, opening of the rift zone, and collapse of the magma-system head. If magma continues to flow into the conduit and out into the rift system, then the cycle of growth and collapse begins again. This pattern characterizes currently active Kīlauea Volcano, where periods of upward and seaward growth along rift zones were punctuated by large (>10 m) and rapid flank displacements in 1823, 1868, 1924, and 1975. At the much larger Mauna Loa volcano, rapid flank movements have occurred only twice in the past 200 years, in 1868 and 1951. All seaward flank movement occurs along a detachment fault, or décollement, that forms within the mixture of pelagic clays and volcaniclastic deposits on the old seafloor and pushes up a bench of debris along the distal margin of the flank. The offshore uplift that builds this bench is generated by décollement slip that terminates upward into the overburden along thrust faults. Finite strain and finite strength models for volcano growth on a low-friction décollement reproduce this bench structure, as well as much of the morphology and patterns of faulting observed on the actively growing volcanoes of Mauna Loa and Kīlauea. These models show how stress is stored within growing volcano flanks, but not how rapid, potentially seismic slip is triggered along their décollements. The imbalance of forces that triggers large, rapid seaward displacement of the flank after decades of creep may result either from driving forces that change rapidly, such as magma pressure gradients; from resisting forces that rapidly diminish with slip, such as those arising from coupling of pore pressure and dilatancy within décollement sediment; or, from some interplay between driving and resisting forces that produces flank motion. Our understanding of the processes of flank motion is limited by available data, though recent studies have increased our ability to quantitatively address flank instability and associated hazards.

Hawaii

User’s guide and reference to Ash3d—A three-dimensional model for Eulerian atmospheric tephra transport and deposition

Ash3d is a three-dimensional Eulerian atmospheric model for tephra transport, dispersal, and deposition to study and forecast hazards of volcanic ash clouds and tephra fall. In this report, we explain how to set up simulations using a web interface, and how to view and interpret model output. We also summarize the architecture of the model and some of its properties.

Open-File Report

A Bayesian method to rank different model forecasts of the same volcanic ash cloud: Chapter 24

Volcanic eruptions often spew fine ash high into the atmosphere, where it is carried downwind, forming long ash clouds that disrupt air traffic and pose a hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community studying ash hazards must assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust and accurate forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. We provide a quantitative and objective method to evaluate the efficacy of ash dispersal estimates from different models, using Bayes theorem to assess the predictions that each model makes about ash dispersal. We incorporate model and measurement uncertainty and produce a posterior probability for model input parameters. The integral of the posterior over all possible combinations of model inputs determines the evidence for each model and is used to compare models. We compare two different types of transport models, an Eulerian model (Ash3d) and a Langrangian model (PUFF), as applied to the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. The evidence for each model benefits from common physical characteristics of ash dispersal from an eruption column and provides a measure of how well each model forecasts cloud transport. Given the complexity of the wind fields, we find that the differences between these models depend upon the differences in the way the models disperse ash into the wind from the source plume. With continued observation, the accuracy of the estimates made by each model increases, increasing the efficacy of each model’s ability to simulate ash dispersal.

Geophysical Monograph

Intermediate‐depth intraslab earthquakes and arc volcanism as physical expressions of crustal and uppermost mantle metamorphism in subducting slabs

We elaborate on the well-known spatial association between axc volcanoes and Wadati Benioff zones and explore in detail their genetic relationships as dual physical expressions of slab metamorphism of the oceanic crust and uppermost mantle. At hypocentral depths less than 200 km intra slab Wadati-Benioff earthquakes tend to occur near the top surfaces of slabs. Subduction of very young lithosphere (age < 15-25 Ma) with high heat flow (> 75 mW/m 2) produces mainly shallow earthquakes and spaxse or absent arc volcanism. Subduction of older crust with normal heat flow (50-65 mW/m 2) produces markedly deeper intraslab earthquakes and generally normal volcanic vigor. Seismological observations show that the low-seismic-velocity gabbroic mineralogy of the crust may persist to depths of as much as 150 km in old, cold lithosphere but only to depths of 50-60 km in young, warm slabs. Metamorphic processes in the crust and shallow upper mantle of subducting slabs and the reactivation of faults originally created at shallow depths in the ocean basins probably control the occurrence of intraslab earthquakes to depths of as much as 350 kin. A conceptual model for this metamorphism incorporates the likely effects of water liberated by dehydration. Such dehydration facilitates both brittle faulting by fault reactivation and promotes the kinetics of the transformation of the anhydrous gabbro component of the crust to eclogite. Finite-element modelling shows that densification to eclogite is expected to produce extensional stresses in transformed crust and a smaller compression in the underlying mantle. This model helps explain why most intermediate-depth intraslab earthquakes occur just below the top surfaces of slabs and why many have focal mechanisms indicating down-dip extension. Young, warm slabs have mostly shallow intraslab earthquakes and sparse axc volcanoes because dehydration and eclogite formation largely cease before such slabs axe in contact with asthenosphere. These processes are evidently delayed by kinetic hindrance and the high pressure stability of hydrous phazes at low temperatures in older, colder subducting crust, and thus earthquake activity and asthenospheric-wedge melting tend to be focused at depths of 100-170 kin. Anomalous behavior correlated with the subduction of island-and seamount chains appears to be associated with anomalou shallow intraplate faulting and with perturbations of slab metamorphism by these chains.

Geophysical Monograph

Injection, transport, and deposition of tephra during event 5 at Redoubt Volcano, 23 March, 2009

Among the events of the 2009 eruption at Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, event 5 was the best documented by radar, satellite imagery, and deposit mapping. We use the new Eulerian tephra transport model Ash3d to simulate transport and deposition of event 5 tephra at distances up to 350 km. The eruption, which started at about 1230 UTC on 23 March, 2009, sent a plume from the vent elevation (estimated at 2.3 ± 0.1 km above sea level or a.s.l.) to about 16 ± 2 km above sea level in 5 min. The plume was a few kilometers higher than would be expected for the estimated average mass eruption rate and atmospheric conditions, possibly due to release of most of the eruptive mass in the first half of the 20-minute event. The eruption injected tephra into a wind field of high shear, with weak easterly winds below ~ 3 km elevation, strong southerly winds at 6–10 km and weak westerlies above ~ 16 km. Model simulations in this wind field predicted development of a northward-migrating inverted “v”-shaped cloud with a southwest-trending arm at a few kilometers elevation, which was not visible in IR satellite images due to cloud cover, and a southeast-trending arm at > 10 km elevation that was clearly visible. Simulations also predicted a deposit distribution that strongly depended on plume height: a plume height below 15 km predicted ash deposits that were located west of those mapped, whereas good agreement was reached with a modeled plume height of 15–18 km. Field sampling of the deposit found it to contain abundant tephra aggregates, which accelerated the removal of tephra from the atmosphere. We were able to reasonably approximate the effect of aggregation on the deposit mass distribution by two methods: (1) adjusting the grain-size distribution, taking the erupted mass < = 0.063 mm in diameter and distributing it evenly into bins of coarser size; and (2) moving 80–90% of the mass < = 0.063 mm into a single particle bin ranging in size from 0.25 to 1 mm. These methods produced an area inside the 100 g m − 2 isomass lines that was within a few tens of percent of mapped area; however they under-predicted deposit mass at very proximal (< 50 km) and very distal (> 250 km) locations. Modeled grain-size distributions at sample locations are also generally coarser than observed. The mismatch may result from a combination of limitations in field sampling, approximations inherent in the model, errors in the numerical wind field, and aggregation of particles larger than 0.063 mm.

Alaska

Faulting within the Mount St. Helens conduit and implications for volcanic earthquakes

The 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens produced seven dacite spines mantled by cataclastic fault rocks, comprising an outer fault core and an inner damage zone. These fault rocks provide remarkable insights into the mechanical processes that accompany extrusion of degassed magma, insights that are useful in forecasting dome-forming eruptions. The outermost part of the fault core consists of finely comminuted fault gouge that is host to 1- to 3-mm-thick layers of extremely fine-grained slickenside-bearing ultracataclasite. Interior to the fault core, there is an ∼2-m-thick damage zone composed of cataclastic breccia and sheared dacite, and interior to the damage zone, there is massive to flow-banded dacite lava of the spine interior. Structures and microtextures indicate entirely brittle deformation, including rock breakage, tensional dilation, shearing, grain flow, and microfaulting, as well as gas and fluid migration through intergranular pores and fractures in the damage zone. Slickenside lineations and consistent orientations of Riedel shears indicate upward shear of the extruding spines against adjacent conduit wall rocks. Paleomagnetic directions, demagnetization paths, oxide mineralogy, and petrology indicate that cataclasis took place within dacite in a solidified steeply dipping volcanic conduit at temperatures above 500 °C. Low water content of matrix glass is consistent with brittle behavior at these relatively high temperatures, and the presence of tridymite indicates solidification depths of <1 km. Cataclasis was coincident with the eruption’s seismogenic zone at <1.5 km. More than a million small and low-frequency “drumbeat” earthquakes with coda magnitudes (M d ) <2.0 and frequencies <5 Hz occurred during the 2004–2008 eruption. Our field data provide a means with which to estimate slip-patch dimensions for shear planes and to compare these with estimates of slip patches based on seismic moments and shear moduli for dacite rock and granular fault gouge. Based on these comparisons, we find that aseismic creep is achieved by micron-scale displacements on Riedel shears and by granular flow, whereas the drumbeat earthquakes require millimeter to centimeter displacements on relatively large (e.g., ∼1000 m 2 ) slip patches, possibly along observed extensive principal shear zones within the fault core but probably not along the smaller Riedel shears. Although our field and structural data are compatible with stick-slip models, they do not rule out seismic and infrasound models that call on resonance of steam-filled fractures to generate the drumbeat earthquakes. We suggest that stick-slip and gas release processes may be coupled, and that regardless of the source mechanism, the distinctive drumbeat earthquakes are proving to be an effective precursor for dome-forming eruptions. Our data document a continuous cycle of deformation along the conduit margins beginning with episodes of fracture in the damage zone and followed by transfer of motion to the fault core. We illustrate the cycle of deformation using a hypothetical cross section of the Mount St. Helens conduit, extending from the surface to the depth of magmatic solidification.

Washington

Evidence from gravity data for an intrusive complex beneath Mount St. Helens

On the basis of gravity data, aided by aeromagnetic, magnetotelluric, side-looking radar, and geologic information, we tentatively identify a large, shallow intrusive complex beneath Mount St. Helens. The complex is roughly 5–6 km thick and has apparently intruded a buried and compressed Mesozoic forearc sedimentary sequence. The lateral extent of the intrusive complex is uncertain, and we give three alternative models varying from about 18 by 10 km to as much as 18 by 22 km. The western boundary of the inferred Mount St. Helens intrusion abuts several of a number of Tertiary and younger plutons that crop out in the area. The Mount St. Helens intrusion apparently is adjacent to sedimentary rock or shallow volcanic rock along most of the remainder of its boundary. A ringlike drainage pattern around Mount St. Helens suggests subsidence caused by removing magma from deep beneath Mount St. Helens and adding this mass to the Mount St. Helens edifice and its underlying intrusion. Our analysis indicates that the average bulk density of the volcanic rock comprising Mount St. Helens is about 2.15 g/cm 3 .

Washington