Geology topics

Roger Grosse

Publications and source records attributed to Roger Grosse.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Linking distribution and return-on-investment models to optimize woody management for prairie grouse in Nebraska

Grasslands in Nebraska, USA, face threats from agricultural conversion, urban development, and woody encroachment, all of which negatively affect prairie grouse ( Tympanuchus spp.) populations. To optimize conservation planning, Nebraska wildlife agencies developed probabilistic area-based surveys for greater prairie-chicken ( T. cupido ) and sharp-tailed grouse ( T. phasianellus ) to sample landscapes across a range of environmental conditions. This design improves historical surveys and enables the development of distribution models that quantitatively define habitat associations and support scenario-based conservation planning. Using survey data collected during 2020–2022, we modeled prairie grouse occurrence and abundance as functions of land cover, topography, and climate using Bayesian logistic and zero-inflated negative binomial models with regularized horseshoe priors. We then conducted a maximum potential return-on-investment analysis of woody cover treatments, assuming sustained treatment success, relative to projected impacts of woody encroachment on prairie grouse populations by 2050. Among modeled associations were a positive association with grasslands having low woody cover and a negative association with grasslands having high woody cover. Across the 3-year period, median estimated annual populations were 142,380 for greater prairie-chicken (range of 95% CIs across years = 68,821–277,615) and 64,154 for sharp-tailed grouse (range of 95% CIs across years = 27,550–146,559). Under projected woody encroachment, mean predicted population declines were 10% for greater prairie-chicken (range of 95% CIs = 7–14%) and 6% for sharp-tailed grouse (range of 95% CIs = 5–7%). Areas with high prairie grouse density and low treatment costs in 2021, and high projected woody encroachment and population loss by 2050, offered the greatest return on investment for woody management. Return on investment was greatest in the northwestern Shortgrass Prairie ecoregion (northwestern Nebraska) for sharp-tailed grouse and the eastern Sandhills ecoregion (central Nebraska) for both species. These models underscore the value of evidence-based, quantitative approaches for prioritizing conservation actions on working lands. Scenario-based modeling could be extended to guide other treatments, such as optimizing restoration (e.g., Conservation Reserve Program) or incentivizing grassland persistence in areas with predicted climate resilience.

Nebraska↗

USGS2019

Roosting habitat use by sandhill cranes and waterfowl on the North and South Platte Rivers in Nebraska

Migration ecology and habitat use of spring migrating birds using the Central Platte River is a well-explored topic, yet less is known about use of the North and South Platte rivers (NSPR) in western Nebraska. The efficiency and effectiveness of conservation efforts in the NSPR could be greatly improved with access to information about where and when birds roost and landscape prioritization tools. We used aerial surveys to determine population distribution and migration phenology of sandhill cranes Antigone canadensis , Canada geese Branta canadensis , and ducks using the NSPR for roosting during the mid-February to mid-April spring migration. We used these data and geospatial information to identify important river reaches for these species and habitat covariates that discriminate between those used at lower and higher densities. We found that sandhill cranes and waterfowl generally roosted in different segments of the NSPR and, subsequently, different factors were associated with high densities. Sandhill crane density was positively correlated with distance from obstructions greater than 1 m high and negatively correlated with area of unvegetated sandbar within 1 km. Density of Canada geese and ducks was high in segments positively associated with wetland and sand pit habitats. Human disturbance variables such as roads and bridges in this rural region had little effect on identification of roosting areas used by high densities of all groups. On the basis of our results, habitat conservation efforts that specifically target sandhill cranes will not have similar positive effects on waterfowl use and distribution in the NSPR. Our identification of the most important river segments should allow managers to better target land acquisition or management resources to areas that will have the greatest effect on either waterfowl or sandhill cranes during spring migration.

Nebraska↗

USGS2015

Predictions of future ephemeral springtime waterbird stopover habitat availability under global change

In the present period of rapid, worldwide change in climate and landuse (i.e., global change), successful biodiversity conservation warrants proactive management responses, especially for long-distance migratory species. However, the development and implementation of management strategies can be impeded by high levels of uncertainty and low levels of control over potentially impactful future events and their effects. Scenario planning and modeling are useful tools for expanding perspectives and informing decisions under these conditions. We coupled scenario planning and statistical modeling to explain and predict playa wetland inundation (i.e., presence/absence of water) and ponded area (i.e., extent of water) in the Rainwater Basin, an anthropogenically altered landscape that provides critical stopover habitat for migratory waterbirds. Inundation and ponded area models for total wetlands, those embedded in rowcrop fields, and those not embedded in rowcrop fields were trained and tested with wetland ponding data from 2004 and 2006–2009, and then used to make additional predictions under two alternative climate change scenarios for the year 2050, yielding a total of six predictive models and 18 prediction sets. Model performance ranged from moderate to good, with inundation models outperforming ponded area models, and models for non-rowcrop-embedded wetlands outperforming models for total wetlands and rowcrop-embedded wetlands. Model predictions indicate that if the temperature and precipitation changes assumed under our climate change scenarios occur, wetland stopover habitat availability in the Rainwater Basin could decrease in the future. The results of this and similar studies could be aggregated to increase knowledge about the potential spatial and temporal distributions of future stopover habitat along migration corridors, and to develop and prioritize multi-scale management actions aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of global change on migratory waterbird populations.

Nebraska↗