Geology topics

Robert Graves

Publications and source records attributed to Robert Graves.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Constraining source and path effects of large magnitude earthquakes using ground motion simulations

The purpose of this study is to use ground‐motion simulations to investigate ways in which source and path effects for large‐magnitude earthquakes can be represented in nonergodic ground‐motion models (GMMs). To achieve this, we designed a ground‐motion study in the San Francisco Bay Area that includes earthquakes with a broad range of magnitudes distributed uniformly on a fault plane, and sites covering a large range of rupture distances and azimuths. After running a large suite of kinematic simulations (magnitude 4–7), we then develop a nonergodic GMM with the simulated data. We find that trends in the within‐site residuals are affected significantly by the earthquake radiation pattern, rupture directivity, and slip patterns. Next, we modify an existing rupture directivity model to fit and remove the observed radiation pattern and rupture directivity from the residuals. We also minimize the contributions of slip patterns by averaging the within‐site residuals among multiple source realizations. Finally, after removing the source effects from the within‐site residuals, we compare the path effects computed with different magnitude groups using two approaches. The first approach only considers the small events that have the same shortest path to a site as the large events, whereas the second approach considers all small events on the fault plane. The results indicate that it is difficult to satisfactorily approximate the path effects of large events with those of small events using either approach, at least in the case of simulations.

California↗

USGS2025

Constraining large magnitude event source and path effects using ground motion simulations

The purpose of this study is to use ground motion simulations to investigate ways in which source and path effects for large magnitude events can be represented in non-ergodic GMMs. While we initially developed computation techniques using CyberShake simulations, the range of magnitudes and source-site combinations is not adequate to replicate what is observed empirically. We therefore designed a new ground motion simulation study, which includes earthquakes with a large range of magnitudes distributed uniformly on a fault plane, and sites covering a large range of rupture distances and azimuths. After running a large suite of simulations (M4-M7), we then develop a non-ergodic GMM with the simulation data. We find that the within-site residuals are dominated by the radiation pattern, rupture directivity, and slip patterns. Next, we modify an existing rupture directivity model to fit and remove the observed radiation pattern and rupture directivity from the residuals. We also minimize the contributions of slip patterns by averaging the within-site residuals among multiple source realizations. Finally, after removing the source effects from the within-site residuals, we compare the path effects computed with different magnitude groups using two approaches. The first approach only considers the small events that have the same shortest path to a site with the large events, while the second approach considers all small events on the fault plane. The results indicate that the path effects of large events cannot be satisfactorily approximated with that of small events using either approach.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2024

The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: A retrospective analysis

The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake was a watershed event, with far-reaching societal and scientific impacts. The earthquake, which occurred in the early days of both broadband seismic networks and the Internet, spurred advances in seismic monitoring, real-time systems, and development of data products. Motivated by the 30th anniversary of the earthquake, we present a brief retrospective of the earthquake and its impact, and reconsider both ground motions and the aftershock distribution using modern tools and best-available data. With improvements in instrumentation and analysis methodology, recent earthquakes continue to reveal increasing complexity of ground motions, fault systems, and earthquake ruptures. Even in the absence of data from state-of-the art instrumentation, a retrospective consideration of ground motion data from the Northridge earthquake reveals complexities beyond what could be characterized (and modeled) thirty years ago. Aftershock relocations for both the 1971 Sylmar and 1994 Northridge earthquakes also reveal an updated view of fault complexity. Our study does provide a cautionary tale regarding legacy data sets and research results that are not easily accessible, which can result in discrepancies between catalog data and products from best-available science. We also briefly describe outreach products produced as part of the anniversary commemoration.

California↗

USGS2024

Using open-science workflow tools to produce SCEC CyberShake physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard models

The Statewide (formerly Southern) California Earthquake Center (SCEC) conducts multidisciplinary earthquake system science research that aims to develop predictive models of earthquake processes, and to produce accurate seismic hazard information that can improve societal preparedness and resiliency to earthquake hazards. As part of this program, SCEC has developed the CyberShake platform, which calculates physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) models for regions with high-quality seismic velocity and fault models. The CyberShake platform implements a sophisticated computational workflow that includes over 15 individual codes written by 6 developers. These codes are heterogeneous, ranging from short-running high-throughput serial CPU codes to large, long-running, parallel GPU codes. Additionally, CyberShake simulation campaigns are computationally extensive, typically producing tens of terabytes of meaningful scientific data and metadata over several months of around-the-clock execution on leadership-class supercomputers. To meet the needs of the CyberShake platform, we have developed an extreme-scale workflow stack, including the Pegasus Workflow Management System, HTCondor, Globus, and custom tools. We present this workflow software stack and identify how the CyberShake platform and supporting tools enable us to meet a variety of challenges that come with large-scale simulations, such as automated remote job submission, data management, and verification and validation. This platform enabled us to perform our most recent simulation campaign, CyberShake Study 22.12, from December 2022 to April 2023. During this time, our workflow tools executed approximately 32,000 jobs, and used up to 73% of the Summit system at Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. Our workflow tools managed about 2.5 PB of total temporary and output data, and automatically staged 19 million output files totaling 74 TB back to archival storage on the University of Southern California's Center for Advanced Research Computing systems, including file-based relational data and large binary files to efficiently store millions of simulated seismograms. CyberShake extreme-scale workflows have generated simulation-based probabilistic seismic hazard models that are being used by seismological, engineering, and governmental communities.

Frontiers Earth Science Journal↗

USGS2024

Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model

Several rupture directivity models (DMs) have been developed in recent years to describe the near-source spatial variations in ground motion amplitudes related to propagation of rupture along the fault. We recently organized an effort towards incorporating these directivity effects into the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), by first evaluating the community's work and potential methods to implement directivity adjustments into probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Guided by this evaluation and comparison among the considered DMs, we selected an approach that can be readily implemented into the USGS hazard software, that provides an azimuthally varying adjustment to the median ground motion and its aleatory variability. This method allows assessment of the impact on hazard levels and provides a platform to test the DM amplification predictions using a generalized coordinate system, necessary for consistent calculation of source-to-site distance terms for complex ruptures. We give examples of the directivity-related impact on hazard, progressing from a simple, hypothetical rupture, to more complex fault systems, composed of multiple rupture segments and sources. The directivity adjustments were constrained to strike-slip faulting, where DMs have good agreement. We find that rupture directivity adjustments using a simple median and aleatory adjustment approach can impact hazard both from a site perspective and on a regional scale, increasing shaking off the end of the fault trace up to 30--40\% and potentially reducing it for sites along strike. Statewide hazard maps of California show that the change in shaking along major faults can be a factor to consider for assessing long-period (>ls) near-source effects within the USGS NSHM going forward, reaching up to 10--20\%. Finally, we suggest consideration of minimum parameter ranges and baseline requirements as future DMs are developed to minimize single approach adaptations, to enable more consistent application within both ground motion and hazard studies.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2024

Reconciling bias in moderate magnitude earthquake ground motions predicted by numerical simulations

Recent studies found a significant underprediction in ground motion intensity measures for finite-fault simulations of moderate magnitude events in southern California relative to established ground motion models. This study aims to understand the source(s) of this bias by evaluating ground motion residuals. For this, simulations have been performed for a total of 27 well-recorded earthquakes in southern California. Systematic efforts have been employed to identify the source(s) of bias by ruling out factors that are insignificant. Preliminary findings indicate that the magnitude-area scaling used in the simulations is the likely major cause of the observed bias. Adjustment in the source attributes on event-by-event basis is underway to study if the observed bias can be reconciled.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2024

Recent applications of the USGS National Crustal Model for Seismic Hazard Studies

The U.S. Geological Survey is developing the National Crustal Model (NCM) for seismic hazard studies to facilitate modeling site, path, and source components of seismic hazard across the conterminous United States. The NCM is composed of a 1km grid of geophysical profiles, extending from the Earth’s surface into the upper mantle. It is constructed from a threedimensional (3D) geologic framework and geophysical rules that use (1) a petrologic and mineral physics database; (2) a 3D temperature model; and (3) a calibrated rock type- and age-dependent porosity model. Parameters needed to estimate site response for existing ground motion models (GMMs), including the time-averaged velocity in the upper 30 meters (VS30), the depths to 1.0 and 2.5 km/s shear-wave velocity (Z1.0 and Z2.5), and sediment thickness, can be computed from the NCM. As GMMs continue to improve in the future, other metrics could also be extracted or derived from the NCM, such as fundamental period, site attenuation (ko), a fully frequency-dependent site response function, or 3D geophysical volumes for wavefield simulations. Application of the NCM may also benefit other aspects of seismic hazard analysis, including better accounting for path-dependent attenuation and geometric spreading, more accurate estimation of earthquake source properties such as hypocentral location and stress drop, and calculation of crustal strength profiles that inform estimates of the base of seismicity.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2023

Modern products for a vintage event: An update on the 1933 Long Beach, California, earthquake

When a notable earthquake occurs in the United States, a range of familiar real‐ and near‐real‐time products are produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), and made available via the ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog. For historical and early instrumental earthquakes, similar results and products are developed depending on data availability and event significance, drawing from published later studies. The year 2023 marked the ninetieth anniversary of the 11 March 1933 Long Beach, California, earthquake. This anniversary provided the impetus to update ANSS products, drawing on archived and published data. Here, we describe the updated ShakeMap, shaking recordings and intensities, and retrospective aftershock forecast for the Long Beach, California, earthquake. In effect we have developed standard, modern ANSS products for an earthquake that occurred 90 yr ago. Our results show that the distributions of both the ground motions, anchored by three strong‐motion recordings, and aftershock magnitudes are consistent with expectations for an M 6.4 mainshock in Southern California. We show that, notwithstanding possible limitations, instrumentally recorded accelerations from the closest station are consistent with predicted shaking and directly estimated macroseismic intensities. Updated data products have been added to the USGS event page, where they are available for download. Public‐facing products were also created for the anniversary and are freely available on the USGS website.

California↗

USGS2023

Comparison of nonergodic ground-motion components from CyberShake and NGA-West2 datasets in California

In this study, we compare the Southern California Earthquake Center CyberShake platform against the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 empirical datasets. Because the CyberShake and empirical datasets cover very different magnitude ranges and site conditions, we develop ground‐motion models (GMMs) for CyberShake datasets to compare trends with empirical GMMs and decompose the residuals for further analysis. We apply mixed effects regression to four CyberShake datasets in southern, central, and northern California at 2, 3, 5, and 10 s periods, and compare the results with the empirical datasets using the same approach. CyberShake captures the total variability of ground motions in the empirical datasets but tends to predict larger median ground motions relative to the empirical GMMs. We then calculate and compare the repeatable source‐specific location, site, and path effects between CyberShake and empirical datasets. We find that the correlations of site effects between the CyberShake and empirical datasets are generally satisfactory, but the variability of site effects is slightly smaller for CyberShake datasets. There is no apparent correlation of source‐specific location effects between the CyberShake and empirical datasets. Comparison of path effects shows a wide range of correlation coefficients. Finally, we investigate the source of observed differences between the CyberShake and empirical datasets. We attribute the larger median ground‐motion levels in CyberShake to a combination of the homogeneous slip patterns of the earthquake ruptures, the low resolution of near‐surface materials in the velocity models, and strong reflections at high‐contrast boundaries in the velocity models. These factors also impact the correlations of site and path effects between the CyberShake and empirical datasets. Moreover, the leakage from location effects into site and path terms further weakens the correlations. In summary, we find that CyberShake could be improved, but it is still very useful to supplement empirical datasets for ground‐motion studies, especially to inform their nonergodic components.

California↗

USGS2022

Using a grid-search approach to validate the Graves-Pitarka broadband simulation method

This work assesses the ability of the Graves–Pitarka simulation approach to reproduce observed ground motions for 12 California and Baja California earthquakes. A total of 240 realizations are computed for each earthquake and compared with recorded strong motions from near-fault sites. In addition to spatial variability in slip, each realization samples from discrete combinations of average rupture speed, rise time, and down-dip fault width. Ground motions for each realization of a given earthquake are compared to the observations using a pseudo-spectral acceleration goodness-of-fit (GoF) metric. Parameters for the lowest misfit cases are then tabulated to develop relations for estimating median values and ranges for future applications. The results are generally consistent with published scaling relations for estimating rupture dimensions as a function of magnitude. Additionally, I find the average rise time scales as 2.3 × α T × 10 − 9 × M o 1 / 3 "> 2.3 × α T × 10 - 9 × M o 1 / 3 ( M o is seismic moment in dyne-cm) and average rupture speed as ( 0.765 ± 0.075 ) × α T − 1 × V s "> ( 0.765 ± 0.075 ) × α T - 1 × V s ( V s is local shear wave velocity), where 2.3 × α T × 10 − 9 × M o 1 / 3 "> α T is a mechanism adjustment ranging from a value of 1.0 for pure strike-slip to 0.9 for pure reverse-slip cases. There are cases where slightly different combinations of parameters produce equally good fits to the observations, demonstrating the non-uniqueness of using a single GoF metric in this approach. Nonetheless, the results reinforce the importance of adequately sampling ranges of rupture parameters when performing validations, as well as when simulating ground motions for future events.

Earth, Planets and Space↗

USGS2022

Hybrid broadband ground-motion simulation validation of small magnitude active shallow crustal earthquakes in New Zealand

This article presents a comprehensive validation of the hybrid broadband ground-motion simulation approach (via the commonly used Graves and Pitarka method) in a New Zealand context with small magnitude point source ruptures using an extensive set of 5218 ground motions recorded at 212 sites from 479 active shallow crustal earthquakes across the country. Modifications to the simulation method inferred from a previous New Zealand validation are implemented, and the improvements are explicitly quantified. Empirical ground-motion models are also considered to provide a benchmark for simulation prediction accuracy and precision. Examination of intensity measure residuals identifies that the simulation method modifications lead to reduced model prediction bias and within-event variability and provides evidence toward the use of spatially varying coefficient models for simulation parameters, such as the high-frequency Brune stress parameter. Additional biases identified include, among others, underprediction of significant durations at soft soil sites and overprediction of short-period pseudo-spectral accelerations at stiff alluvial gravel and rock sites due to low-estimated 30 m time-averaged shear-wave velocity values.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2022

Validating predicted site response in sedimentary basins from 3D ground motion simulations

We introduce procedures to validate site response in sedimentary basins as predicted using ground motion simulations. These procedures aim to isolate contributions of site response to computed intensity measures relative to those from seismic source and path effects. In one of the validation procedures, simulated motions are analyzed in the same manner as earthquake recordings to derive non-ergodic site terms. This procedure compares the scaling with sediment isosurface depth of simulated versus empirical site terms (the latter having been derived in a separate study). A second validation procedure utilizes two sets of simulations, one that considers three-dimensional (3D) basin structure and a second that utilizes a one-dimensional (1D) representation of the crustal structure. Identical sources are used in both procedures, and after correcting for variable path effects, differences in ground motions are used to estimate site amplification in 3D basins. Such site responses are compared to those derived empirically to validate both the absolute levels and the depth scaling of site response from 3D simulations. We apply both procedures to southern California in a manner that is consistent between the simulated and empirical data (i.e. by using similar event locations and magnitudes). The results show that the 3D simulations overpredict the depth-scaling and absolute levels of site amplification in basins. However, overall patterns of site amplification with depth are similar, suggesting that future calibration may be able to remove observed biases.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2021

Refinements to the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture generator, including a dynamically consistent slip‐rate function, applied to the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake

The main objective of this study is to develop physics‐based constraints on the spatiotemporal variation of the slip‐rate function using a simplified dynamic rupture model. First, we performed dynamic rupture modeling of the 2019 M w 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake, to analyze the effects of depth‐dependent stress and material friction on slip rate. Then, we used our modeling results to guide refinements to the slip‐rate function that were implemented in the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture generation technique. The dynamic ruptures were computed on a surface‐rupturing, planar strike‐slip fault that includes a weak (negative to low‐stress‐drop) zone in the upper 4 km of the crust. Below the weak zone, we placed high‐stress‐drop patches designed to mirror the large‐slip areas seen in various rupture model inversions of the event. The locations of the high‐stress‐drop patches and the hypocenter were varied in multiple realizations to investigate how changing the dynamic conditions affected the resulting rupture kinematics, in particular, the slip rate. From these simulations, we observed a systematic change in the shape of the slip‐rate function from Kostrov type below the weak zone to a predominantly symmetric shape within the weak zone, along with a depth‐dependent reduction of peak slip rate. We generalized these shallow rupture features into a depth‐dependent parametric variation of the slip‐rate function and implemented it in the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model generator. The performance of the updated kinematic approach was then verified in 0–4 Hz simulations of the M w 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake, which showed that incorporating the depth‐dependent variation in the shape of the slip‐rate function improves the fit to the observed near‐fault ground motions in the 0.5–3 s period range.

California↗

USGS2021

NGA-East Ground-Motion Characterization model part I: Summary of products and model development

In this article, we present an overview of the research project NGA-East, Next Generation Attenuation for Central and Eastern North America (CENA), and summarize the key methodology and products. The project was tasked with developing a new ground motion characterization (GMC) model for CENA. The final NGA-East GMC model includes a set of 17 median ground motion models (GMMs) for peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA, PGV) and response spectral ordinates for periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The NGA-East GMMs are applicable to horizontal components of ground motions on very hard rock, for the moment magnitude range of 4.0–8.2, and distances of up to 1500 km. The aleatory standard deviations of GMMs are also provided for site-specific analysis (single-station standard deviation) and for general probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) applications (ergodic standard deviation). In addition, adjustment factors are provided for source depth and hanging-wall effects, as well as for hazard computations at sites in the Gulf Coast Region. During the course of the project, several innovative technologies were developed and implemented to increase the transparency and repeatability of the GMC building process. This involved expanding on a set of candidate median GMMs to define and capture an appropriate range of epistemic uncertainty in ground motions. We also developed a new approach for modeling the aleatory variability that was completely independent of the median GMMs. The development made extensive use of the CENA database but also borrowed data from other parts of the world when relevant and led to an integrated suite of models. Through this repeatable process, epistemic uncertainty could be quantified more objectively than before, relying less on expert opinion. The NGA-East project went through a comprehensive Seismic Senior Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 peer review process before its release.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2021

NGA-East ground-motion characterization model Part II: Implementation and hazard implications

As a companion article to Goulet et al., we describe implementation of the NGA-East ground motion characterization (GMC) model in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for sites in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). We present extensions to the EPRI/DOE/NRC seismic source characterization (SSC) model for the CEUS needed for full implementation of NGA-East. Comparisons are presented to the EPRI GMC, the currently accepted model by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for hazard assessment at nuclear facilities. Comparisons are presented both in terms of GMC model components and in the resulting seismic hazard assessments for a range of site locations in the CEUS. Illustrations of the effect of various components of the NGA-East GMC on seismic hazard results are also presented. Finally, we present recommendations for application of the NGA-East GMC in PSHA.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2021

Ground motions in urban Los Angeles from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence

We study ground-motion response in urban Los Angeles during the two largest events (M7.1 and M6.4) of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence using recordings from multiple regional seismic networks as well as a subset of 350 stations from the much denser Community Seismic Network. In the first part of our study, we examine the observed response spectral (pseudo) accelerations for a selection of periods of engineering significance (1, 3, 6, and 8 s). Significant ground-motion amplification is present and reproducible between the two events. For the longer periods, coherent spectral acceleration patterns are visible throughout the Los Angeles Basin, while for the shorter periods, the motions are less spatially coherent. However, coherence is still observable at smaller length scales due to the high spatial density of the measurements. Examining possible correlations of the computed response spectral accelerations with basement depth and Vs30, we find the correlations to be stronger for the longer periods. In the second part of the study, we test the performance of two state-of-the-art methods for estimating ground motions for the largest event of the Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, namely three-dimensional (3D) finite-difference simulations and ground motion prediction equations. For the simulations, we are interested in the performance of the two Southern California Earthquake Center 3D community velocity models (CVM-S and CVM-H). For the ground motion prediction equations, we consider four of the 2014 Next Generation Attenuation-West2 Project equations. For some cases, the methods match the observations reasonably well; however, neither approach is able to reproduce the specific locations of the maximum response spectral accelerations or match the details of the observed amplification patterns.

California↗

USGS2021

Regional calibration of hybrid ground‐motion simulations in moderate seismicity areas: Application to the Upper Rhine Graben

This study presents the coupling of the spectral decomposition results for anelastic attenuation, stress drop, and site effects with the Graves‐Pitarka (GP) hybrid ground‐motion simulation methodology, as implemented on the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) broadband platform (BBP). It is targeted to applications in the Upper Rhine graben (URG), which is among the seismically active areas in western Europe, yet a moderate seismicity area. Our development consists of three main steps: (1) calibration of regional high‐frequency (HF) attenuation properties; (2) modification of the hybrid approach to add compressional waves in the HF computation and examine various strategies to evaluate site amplification factors in the Fourier domain (e.g., V S 30 "> V S 30 VS30 ‐based or site‐specific factors); (3) testing of the simulations using earthquake records from the URG ( ⁠ 3.7 < M w < 5 "> 3.7 < M w < 5 3.7<Mw<5 ⁠ ). The validation process of the simulated time histories is performed first on rock sites, and, then subsequently at all stations, whatever their site conditions. The performance of the simulations for rock sites is assessed through the standard validation technique in the BBP (comparison of the waveforms, intensity measures, and estimation of the response spectra model bias). We additionally compare the Fourier amplitude spectrum of the simulations and observations, and compute their corresponding bias. The results show that the simulated ground motions match the general characteristics of the recorded motions, and that the model bias generally fluctuates around zero across the broadband frequency range. Hence, the hybrid ground‐motion methodology implemented in the SCEC BBP can be successfully applied outside high‐seismicity areas and outside those areas for which it had been generally calibrated. Our results also show that HF modification and calibration were necessary to improve the fits with the observation, and demonstrate the potential benefits of using site‐specific amplification factors compared to V S 30 "> V S 30 VS30 ‐based amplification factors.

Upper Rhine Graben↗

USGS2020

Tall building performance-based seismic design using SCEC broadband platform site-specific ground motion simulations

The scarcity of strong ground motion records presents a challenge for making reliable performance assessments of tall buildings whose seismic design is controlled by large-magnitude and close-distance earthquakes. This challenge can be addressed using broadband ground-motion simulation methods to generate records with site-specific characteristics of large-magnitude events. In this paper, simulated site-specific earthquake seismograms, developed through a related project that was organized through the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Ground Motion Simulation Validation (GMSV) Technical Activity Group, are used for nonlinear response history analyses of two archetype tall buildings for sites in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino. The SCEC GMSV team created the seismograms using the Broadband Platform (BBP) simulations for five site-specific earthquake scenarios. The two buildings are evaluated using nonlinear dynamic analyses under comparable record suites selected from the simulated BBP catalog and recorded motions from the NGA-West database. The collapse risks and structural response demands (maximum story drift ratio, peak floor acceleration, and maximum story shear) under the BBP and NGA suites are compared. In general, this study finds that use of the BBP simulations resolves concerns about estimation biases in structural response analysis which are caused by ground motion scaling, unrealistic spectral shapes, and overconservative spectral variations. While there are remaining concerns that strong coherence in some kinematic fault rupture models may lead to an overestimation of velocity pulse effects in the BBP simulations, the simulations are shown to generally yield realistic pulse-like features of near-fault ground motion records.

California↗