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Rick Wallen

Publications and source records attributed to Rick Wallen.

3 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2015

State-space modeling to support management of brucellosis in the Yellowstone bison population

The bison ( Bison bison ) of the Yellowstone ecosystem, USA, exemplify the difficulty of conserving large mammals that migrate across the boundaries of conservation areas. Bison are infected with brucellosis ( Brucella abortus ) and their seasonal movements can expose livestock to infection. Yellowstone National Park has embarked on a program of adaptive management of bison, which requires a model that assimilates data to support management decisions. We constructed a Bayesian state-space model to reveal the influence of brucellosis on the Yellowstone bison population. A frequency-dependent model of brucellosis transmission was superior to a density-dependent model in predicting out-of-sample observations of horizontal transmission probability. A mixture model including both transmission mechanisms converged on frequency dependence. Conditional on the frequency-dependent model, brucellosis median transmission rate was 1.87 yr −1 . The median of the posterior distribution of the basic reproductive ratio ( R 0 ) was 1.75. Seroprevalence of adult females varied around 60% over two decades, but only 9.6 of 100 adult females were infectious. Brucellosis depressed recruitment; estimated population growth rate λ averaged 1.07 for an infected population and 1.11 for a healthy population. We used five-year forecasting to evaluate the ability of different actions to meet management goals relative to no action. Annually removing 200 seropositive female bison increased by 30-fold the probability of reducing seroprevalence below 40% and increased by a factor of 120 the probability of achieving a 50% reduction in transmission probability relative to no action. Annually vaccinating 200 seronegative animals increased the likelihood of a 50% reduction in transmission probability by fivefold over no action. However, including uncertainty in the ability to implement management by representing stochastic variation in the number of accessible bison dramatically reduced the probability of achieving goals using interventions relative to no action. Because the width of the posterior predictive distributions of future population states expands rapidly with increases in the forecast horizon, managers must accept high levels of uncertainty. These findings emphasize the necessity of iterative, adaptive management with relatively short-term commitment to action and frequent reevaluation in response to new data and model forecasts. We believe our approach has broad applications.

Wyoming↗
USGS2011

Simulating sterilization, vaccination, and test-and-remove as brucellosis control measures in bison

Brucella abortus, the causative agent of bovine brucellosis, infects wildlife, cattle, and humans worldwide, but management of the disease is often hindered by the logistics of controlling its prevalence in wildlife reservoirs. We used an individually based epidemiological model to assess the relative efficacies of three management interventions (sterilization, vaccination, and test-and-remove). The model was parameterized with demographic and epidemiological data from bison in Yellowstone National Park, USA. Sterilization and test-and-remove were most successful at reducing seroprevalence when they were targeted at young seropositive animals, which are the most likely age and sex category to be infectious. However, these approaches also required the most effort to implement. Vaccination was less effective (even with a perfect vaccine) but also required less effort to implement. For the treatment efforts we explored (50–100 individuals per year or 2.5–5% of the female population), sterilization had little impact upon the bison population growth rate when selectively applied. The population growth rate usually increased by year 25 due to the reduced number of Brucella-induced abortions. Initial declines in seroprevalence followed by rapid increases (>15% increase in 5 years) occurred in 3–13% of simulations with sterilization and test-and-remove, but not vaccination. We believe this is due to the interaction of superspreading events and the loss of herd immunity in the later stages of control efforts as disease prevalence declines. Sterilization provided a mechanism for achieving large disease reductions while simultaneously limiting population growth, which may be advantageous in some management scenarios. However, the field effort required to find the small segment of the population that is infectious rather than susceptible or recovered will likely limit the utility of this approach in many free-ranging wildlife populations. Nevertheless, we encourage scientists and policy makers to consider sterilization as part of a suite of available brucellosis management tools.

Ecological Applications↗