Geology topics

Ricardo Villalba

Publications and source records attributed to Ricardo Villalba.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2019

Early-warning signals of individual tree mortality based on annual radial growth

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last ∼20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.

Frontiers in Plant Science↗

USGS2016

A synthesis of radial growth patterns preceding tree mortality

Tree mortality is a key factor influencing forest functions and dynamics, but our understanding of the mechanisms leading to mortality and the associated changes in tree growth rates are still limited. We compiled a new pan-continental tree-ring width database from sites where both dead and living trees were sampled (2970 dead and 4224 living trees from 190 sites, including 36 species), and compared early and recent growth rates between trees that died and those that survived a given mortality event. We observed a decrease in radial growth before death in ca. 84% of the mortality events. The extent and duration of these reductions were highly variable (1–100 years in 96% of events) due to the complex interactions among study species and the source(s) of mortality. Strong and long-lasting declines were found for gymnosperms, shade- and drought-tolerant species, and trees that died from competition. Angiosperms and trees that died due to biotic attacks (especially bark-beetles) typically showed relatively small and short-term growth reductions. Our analysis did not highlight any universal trade-off between early growth and tree longevity within a species, although this result may also reflect high variability in sampling design among sites. The intersite and interspecific variability in growth patterns before mortality provides valuable information on the nature of the mortality process, which is consistent with our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to mortality. Abrupt changes in growth immediately before death can be associated with generalized hydraulic failure and/or bark-beetle attack, while long-term decrease in growth may be associated with a gradual decline in hydraulic performance coupled with depletion in carbon reserves. Our results imply that growth-based mortality algorithms may be a powerful tool for predicting gymnosperm mortality induced by chronic stress, but not necessarily so for angiosperms and in case of intense drought or bark-beetle outbreaks.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2008

Palaeoclimate

This chapter assesses palaeoclimatic data and knowledge of how the climate system changes over interannual to millennial time scales, and how well these variations can be simulated with climate models. Additional palaeoclimatic perspectives are included in other chapters. Palaeoclimate science has made significant advances since the 1970s, when a primary focus was on the origin of the ice ages, the possibility of an imminent future ice age, and the first explorations of the so-called Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period. Even in the first IPCC assessment (IPCC, 1990), many climatic variations prior to the instrumental record were not that well known or understood. Fifteen years later, understanding is much improved, more quantitative and better integrated with respect to observations and modelling. After a brief overview of palaeoclimatic methods, including their strengths and weaknesses, this chapter examines the palaeoclimatic record in chronological order, from oldest to youngest. This approach was selected because the climate system varies and changes over all time scales, and it is instructive to understand the contributions that lower-frequency patterns of climate change might make in influencing higher-frequency patterns of variability and change. In addition, an examination of how the climate system has responded to large changes in climate forcing in the past is useful in assessing how the same climate system might respond to the large anticipated forcing changes in the future.

Book chapter↗

USGS1994

Climatic influences on the growth of subalpine trees in the Colorado Front Range

We examined variations in tree growth responses to climatic variations among different tree species and habitat types in the subalpine zone of the Colorado Front Range. We constructed 25 tree ring site chronologies (11 of Picea engelmannii , 9 of Abies lasiocarpa , 4 of Pinus contorta var. latifolia , and 1 of Pinus flexilis ) from a series of subalpine habitats ranging from xeric to wet. To establish tree growth responses to climatic variation, we used correlation and response function analyses to compare variations in ring widths with monthly temperature and precipitation records. At the driest sites, growth of Picea and Abies tracked climatic variation similarly. At mesic and wet sites, however, these species differed in their responses to climatic variation. The responses of Pinus contorta , sampled over a narrower range of habitat types, differed from those of Picea and Abies but did not differ among sites. Steep environmental gradients in the subalpine zone of the Front Range accounted for most of the observed differences in growth responses to climatic variation. Even at adjacent sites that differ only slightly in topographic position, tree growth responses to climatic variation were distinct. Interspecific differences in response to climatic variations generally were less important than site differences. Intersite differences in tree growth responses to climatic variation can be used as indicators of environmental differences among subalpine habitats.

Ecology↗

USGS1994

Disturbance regime and disturbance interactions in Rocky Mountain subalpine forest

1 The spatial and temporal patterns of fire, snow avalanches and spruce beetle out-breaks were investigated in Marvine Lakes Valley in the Colorado Rocky Mountains in forests of Picea engelmannii , Abies lasiocarpa , Pseudotsuga menziesii and Populus tremuloides . Dates and locations of disturbances were determined by dendrochronological techniques. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate areas affected by the different disturbance agents and to examine the spatial relationships of the different disturbances. 2 In the Marvine Lakes Valley, major disturbance was caused by fire in the 1470s, the 1630s and the 1870s and by spruce beetle outbreak in c. 1716, 1827 and 1949. 3 Since c. 1633, 9% of the Marvine Lakes Valley has been affected by snow avalanches, 38.6% by spruce beetle outbreak and 59.1% by fire. At sites susceptible to avalanches, avalanches occur at a near-annual frequency. The mean return intervals for fire and spruce beetle outbreaks are 202 and 116.5 years, respectively. Turnover times for fire and spruce beetle outbreaks are 521 and 259 years, respectively. 4 Several types of disturbance interaction were identified. For example, large and severe snow avalanches influence the spread of fire. Similarly, following a stand-devastating fire or avalanche, Picea populations will not support a spruce beetle outbreak until individual trees reach a minimum diameter which represents at least 70 years' growth. Thus, recent fires and beetle outbreaks have nonoverlapping distributions.

Journal of Ecology↗