Geology topics

Raymond G. Najjar

Publications and source records attributed to Raymond G. Najjar.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Impacts and uncertainties of climate-induced changes in watershed inputs on estuarine hypoxia

Multiple climate-driven stressors, including warming and increased nutrient delivery, are exacerbating hypoxia in coastal marine environments. Within coastal watersheds, environmental managers are particularly interested in climate impacts on terrestrial processes, which may undermine the efficacy of management actions designed to reduce eutrophication and consequent low-oxygen conditions in receiving coastal waters. However, substantial uncertainty accompanies the application of Earth system model (ESM) projections to a regional modeling framework when quantifying future changes to estuarine hypoxia due to climate change. In this study, two downscaling methods are applied to multiple ESMs and used to force two independent watershed models for Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary of the eastern United States. The projected watershed changes are then used to force a coupled 3-D hydrodynamic–biogeochemical estuarine model to project climate impacts on hypoxia, with particular emphasis on projection uncertainties. Results indicate that all three factors (ESM, downscaling method, and watershed model) are found to contribute substantially to the uncertainty associated with future hypoxia, with the choice of ESM being the largest contributor. Overall, in the absence of management actions, there is a high likelihood that climate change impacts on the watershed will expand low-oxygen conditions by 2050 relative to a 1990s baseline period; however, the projected increase in hypoxia is quite small (4 %) because only climate-induced changes in watershed inputs are considered and not those on the estuary itself. Results also demonstrate that the attainment of established nutrient reduction targets will reduce annual hypoxia by about 50 % compared to the 1990s. Given these estimates, it is virtually certain that fully implemented management actions reducing excess nutrient loadings will outweigh hypoxia increases driven by climate-induced changes in terrestrial runoff.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2020

Challenges in quantifying air-water carbon dioxide flux using estuarine water quality data: Case study for Chesapeake Bay

Estuaries play an uncertain but potentially important role in the global carbon cycle via CO 2 outgassing. The uncertainty mainly stems from the paucity of studies that document the full spatial and temporal variability of estuarine surface water partial pressure of carbon dioxide ( p CO 2 ). Here, we explore the potential of utilizing the abundance of pH data from historical water quality monitoring programs to fill the data void via a case study of the mainstem Chesapeake Bay (eastern United States). We calculate p CO 2 and the air-water CO 2 flux at monthly resolution from 1998 to 2018 from tidal fresh to polyhaline waters, paying special attention to the error estimation. The biggest error is due to the pH measurement error, and errors due to the gas transfer velocity, temporal sampling, the alkalinity mixing model, and the organic alkalinity estimation are 72%, 27%, 15%, and 5%, respectively, of the error due to pH. Seasonal, interannual, and spatial variability in the air-water flux and surface p CO 2 is high, and a correlation analysis with oxygen reveals that this variability is driven largely by biological processes. Averaged over 1998–2018, the mainstem bay is a weak net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere of 1.2 (1.1, 1.4) mol m −2 yr −1 (best estimate and 95% confidence interval). Our findings suggest that the abundance of historical pH measurements in estuaries around the globe should be mined in order to constrain the large spatial and temporal variability of the CO 2 exchange between estuaries and the atmosphere.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2020

Alkalinity in tidal tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay

Despite the important role of alkalinity in estuarine carbon cycling, the seasonal and decadal variability of alkalinity, particularly within multiple tidal tributaries of the same estuary, is poorly understood. Here we analyze more than 26,000 alkalinity measurements, mostly from the 1980s and 1990s, in the major tidal tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay, a large, coastal-plain estuary of eastern North America. The long-term means of alkalinity in tidal-fresh waters vary by a factor of 6 among seven tidal tributaries, reflecting the alkalinity of non-tidal rivers draining to these estuaries. At 25 stations, mostly in the Potomac River Estuary, we find significant long-term increasing trends that exceed the trends in the non-tidal rivers upstream of those stations. Box model calculations in the Potomac River Estuary indicate that the main cause of the estuarine trends is a declining alkalinity sink. The magnitude of this sink is consistent with a simple model of calcification by the invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea. More generally, in tidal tributaries fed by high-alkalinity non-tidal rivers, alkalinity is consumed, with sinks ranging from 8 to 27% of the upstream input. In contrast, tidal tributaries that are fed by low-alkalinity non-tidal rivers have sources of alkalinity amounting to 34 to 171% of the upstream input. For a single estuarine system, the Chesapeake Bay has diverse alkalinity dynamics and can thus serve as a laboratory for studying the numerous processes influencing alkalinity among the world’s estuaries.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2018

Executive summary. In Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report

Central to life on Earth, carbon is essential to the molecular makeup of all living things and plays a key role in regulating global climate. To understand carbon’s role in these processes, researchers measure and evaluate carbon stocks and fluxes. A stock is the quantity of carbon contained in a pool or reservoir in the Earth system (e.g., carbon in forest trees), and a flux is the direction and rate of carbon’s transfer between pools (e.g., the movement of carbon from the atmosphere into forest trees during photosynthesis). This document, the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2), examines the patterns of carbon stocks and fluxes—collectively called the “carbon cycle.” Emphasis is given to these patterns in specific sectors (e.g., agriculture and energy) and ecosystems (e.g., forests and coastal waters) and to the response of the carbon cycle to human activity. The purpose of SOCCR2 is to assess the current state of the North American carbon cycle and to present recent advances in understanding the factors that influence it. Concentrating on North America—Canada, the United States, and Mexico—the report describes carbon cycling for air, land, inland waters (streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs), and coastal waters (see Figure ES.1, p. 23). The questions framing the publication A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (Michalak et al., 2011) inspired development of three slightly modified questions that guide SOCCR2’s content and focus on North America in a global context: How have natural processes and human actions affected the global carbon cycle on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean and other aquatic systems, and at ecosystem interfaces (e.g., coastal, wetland, and urban-rural)? How have socioeconomic trends affected atmospheric levels of the primary carbon-containing gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)? How have species, ecosystems, natural resources, and human systems been impacted by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, associated changes in climate, and carbon management decisions and practices? SOCCR2 synthesizes the most recent understanding of carbon cycling in North America, assessing new carbon cycle findings and information, the state of knowledge regarding core methods used to study the carbon cycle, and future research needed to best inform carbon management and policy options. Focusing on scientific developments in the decade since the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR1; CCSP 2007), SOCCR2 summarizes the past, current, and projected state of carbon sources, sinks, and natural processes, as well as contributions by human activities. In addition to CO2 and CH4, the report sometimes discusses nitrous oxide (N2O), a GHG associated with activities and processes that affect fluxes of carbon gases.1 SOCCR2 also describes improvements in analysis tools; developments in decision support; and new insights into ecosystem carbon cycling, human causes of changes in the carbon cycle, and social science perspectives on carbon. Since publication of SOCCR1, coordinated research from agencies in the three North American countries has enabled innovative observational, analytical, and modeling capabilities to further advance understanding of the North American carbon cycle (see Appendix D: Carbon Measurement Approaches and Accounting Frameworks, p. 834). Some of the report’s main conclusions, based on the Key Findings of each chapter, are highlighted in Box ES.1, Main Findings of SOCCR2, p. 24.

Report↗

USGS2015

Net ecosystem production and organic carbon balance of U.S. East Coast estuaries: A synthesis approach

Net ecosystem production (NEP) and the overall organic carbon budget for the estuaries along the East Coast of the United States are estimated. We focus on the open estuarine waters, excluding the fringing wetlands. We developed empirical models relating NEP to loading ratios of dissolved inorganic nitrogen to total organic carbon, and carbon burial in the sediment to estuarine water residence time and total nitrogen input across the landward boundary. Output from a data-constrained water quality model was used to estimate inputs of total nitrogen and organic carbon to the estuaries across the landward boundary, including fluvial and tidal-wetland sources. Organic carbon export from the estuaries to the continental shelf was computed by difference, assuming steady state. Uncertainties in the budget were estimated by allowing uncertainties in the supporting model relations. Collectively, U.S. East Coast estuaries are net heterotrophic, with the area-integrated NEP of −1.5 (−2.8, −1.0) Tg C yr −1 (best estimate and 95% confidence interval) and area-normalized NEP of −3.2 (−6.1, −2.3) mol C m −2 yr −1 . East Coast estuaries serve as a source of organic carbon to the shelf, exporting 3.4 (2.0, 4.3) Tg C yr −1 or 7.6 (4.4, 9.5) mol C m −2 yr −1 . Organic carbon inputs from fluvial and tidal-wetland sources for the region are estimated at 5.4 (4.6, 6.5) Tg C yr −1 or 12 (10, 14) mol C m −2 yr −1 and carbon burial in the open estuarine waters at 0.50 (0.33, 0.78) Tg C yr −1 or 1.1 (0.73, 1.7) mol C m −2 yr −1 . Our results highlight the importance of estuarine systems in the overall coastal budget of organic carbon, suggesting that in the aggregate, U.S. East Coast estuaries assimilate (via respiration and burial) ~40% of organic carbon inputs from fluvial and tidal-wetland sources and allow ~60% to be exported to the shelf.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗