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Ray Hilborn

Publications and source records attributed to Ray Hilborn.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

A Bayesian life-cycle model to estimate escapement at maximum sustained yield in salmon based on limited information

Life-cycle models combine several strengths for estimating population parameters and biological reference points of harvested species and are particularly useful for those exhibiting distinct habitat shifts and experiencing contrasting environments. Unfortunately, time series data are often limited to counts of adult abundance and harvest. By incorporating data from other populations and by dynamically linking the life-history stages, Bayesian life-cycle models can be used to estimate stage-specific productivities and capacities as well as abundance of breeders that produce maximum sustained yield (MSY). Using coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) as our case study, we show that incorporating information on marine survival variability from nearby populations can improve model estimates and affect management parameters such as escapement at MSY. We further show that the expected long-term average yield of a fishery managed for a spawner escapement target that produces MSY strongly depends on the average marine survival. Our results illustrate the usefulness of incorporating information from other sources and highlight the importance of accounting for variation in marine survival when making inferences about the management of Pacific salmon.

Washington

An evaluation of the effects of conservation and fishery enhancement hatcheries on wild populations of salmon

The historical, political and scientific aspects of salmon hatchery programmes designed to enhance fishery production, or to recover endangered populations, are reviewed. We start by pointing out that the establishment of hatcheries has been a political response to societal demands for harvest and conservation; given this social context, we then critically examined the levels of activity, the biological risks, and the economic analysis associated with salmon hatchery programmes. A rigorous analysis of the impacts of hatchery programmes was hindered by the lack of standardized data on release sizes and survival rates at all ecological scales, and since hatchery programme objectives are rarely defined, it was also difficult to measure their effectiveness at meeting release objectives. Debates on the genetic effects of hatchery programmes on wild fish have been dominated by whether correct management practices can reduce negative outcomes, but we noted that there has been an absence of programmatic research approaches addressing this important issue. Competitive interactions between hatchery and wild fish were observed to be complex, but studies researching approaches to reduce these interactions at all ecological scales during the entire salmon life history have been rare, and thus are not typically considered in hatchery management. Harvesting of salmon released from fishery enhancement hatcheries likely impacts vulnerable wild populations; managers have responded to this problem by mass marking hatchery fish, so that fishing effort can be directed towards hatchery populations. However, we noted that the effectiveness of this approach is dependant on accurate marking and production of hatchery fish with high survival rates, and it is not yet clear whether selective fishing will prevent overharvest of wild populations. Finally, research demonstrating disease transmission from hatchery fish to wild populations was observed to be equivocal; evidence in this area has been constrained by the lack of effective approaches to studying the fate of pathogens in the wild. We then reviewed several approaches to studying the economic consequences of hatchery activities intended to inform the social decisions surrounding programmes, but recognized that placing monetary value on conservation efforts or on hatcheries that mitigate cultural groups’ loss of historical harvest opportunities may complicate these analyses. We noted that economic issues have rarely been included in decision making on hatchery programmes. We end by identifying existing major knowledge gaps, which, if filled, could contribute towards a fuller understanding of the role that hatchery programmes could play in meeting divergent goals. However, we also recognized that many management recommendations arising from such research may involve trade-offs between different risks, and that decisions about these trade-offs must occur within a social context. Hatcheries have played an important role in sustaining some highly endangered populations, and it is possible that reform of practices will lead to an increase in the number of successful programmes. However, a serious appraisal of the role of hatcheries in meeting broader needs is urgently warranted and should take place at the scientific, but more effectively, at the societal level.

Advances in Marine Biology